Temasek Holdings, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund with a $180 billion investment portfolio, is betting big on the future of India’s e-commerce. It recently invested in the Indian e-tailerSnapdeal with the expectation that the volume of transactions in that country’s burgeoning e-commerce market will increase by a factor of at least six over the next three to four years.

    That’s no small vote of confidence in India’s e-commerce potential. Temasek was an early investor in China’s Alibaba, an e-commerce titan whose annual transactions today exceed $250 billion, or more than Amazon and eBay combined. It likes Snapdeal because the company uses a similar model.

    “India has huge opportunity,” says Praveen Sengar, an analyst at Gartner who is based in Singapore. “But logistics is the biggest challenge for the Indian market and significant investment will go into developing a network covering tier 1 and 2 cities.”

    India’s e-commerce market was around $13 billion in 2013, according to a joint report by KPMG and the Internet and Mobile Association of India, or IAMAI. That’s a relatively small number compared to China’s $300 billion, but it’s still a substantial figure with plenty of room for growth.

    In India’s favor is the fact that the country’s digital payments industry is expected to expand at a rate of 40 percent to reach $20 billion by the end of this year, according to IAMAI, and it has one of the youngest online populations, with 15 to 24-year-olds making up the fastest growing segment.

    “Smartphone penetration across the country and the increasingly mobile-first culture will offset the relative lack of reliable Internet connectivity,” says Shiv Putcha, an IDC analyst focused on consumer mobility and gaming and based in Mumbai.

    At present India is transitioning from what is called an inventory-based model of e-commerce, where e-tailers sell a single product or brand stocked in their warehouse, to a marketplace model where a platform brings buyers and sellers together. The marketplace model is considered to be less capital intensive, generating more (and earlier) profits for shareholders.

    In India, the leaders of the marketplace approach are Flipkart, Snapdeal, Myntra, and the recently arrived Amazon.

    “Flipkart definitely stands out with broader market coverage, presence in multiple categories, repeat buyers and consistent orders,” Sengar says.

    Bangalore-based Flipkart, which was founded by two former Amazon executives, started by selling books, but has since branched out into 14 categories including lifestyle, healthcare, and accessories. Earlier this year it acquired Myntra, a fashion portal also based in Bangalore, with hopes that the move will help it dominate apparel e-tailing in India.

    拥有1,800亿美元投资组合的新加坡主权基金淡马锡控股公司（Temasek Holdings）在印度的电子商务上押下了重注。最近，淡马锡对印度的电商Snapdeal进行了投资，希望该国蓬勃发展的电子商务市场的交易量能在接下来的三四年内至少增长到现在的六倍。

    这可是对印度电子商务市场潜力的巨大信心。淡马锡也是中国阿里巴巴（Alibaba）的早期投资者。后者作为电子商务巨擘，年成交额已经超过2,500亿美元，比亚马逊（Amazon）和eBay加起来还要多。淡马锡相中Snapdeal，也是因为这家公司使用了与阿里巴巴类似的模式。

    高德纳研究公司（Gartner）驻新加坡的分析师普拉文•森加表示：“印度有着巨大的机遇。但印度的物流是该国市场面临的最大挑战。要进行大量投资，才能建立覆盖一线城市和二线城市的交通网络。”

    根据毕马威会计事务所（KPMG）和印度互联网及移动通信协会（Internet and Mobile Association of India，IAMAI）的联合报告，印度电子商务市场在2013年的规模约为1,300亿美元。与中国电子商务市场的3,000亿美元相比，该数值相对较低，不过考虑到印度仍然有很多的增长潜力，这也是个很可观的数字了。

    根据印度互联网及移动通信协会的说法，印度的利好在于该国的电子支付行业预计将增长40%，在今年年底达到2,000亿美元的规模。另外，印度还有最年轻的网民群体，15岁至24岁之间的网民比例增长最快。

    国际数据公司（IDC）驻印度孟买的分析师希夫•普恰长期关注移动消费和游戏领域，他表示：“智能手机正在渗透这个国家，‘移动为先’的文化逐渐盛行，将会弥补该国相对匮乏的稳定上网条件。”

    目前，印度的电子商务正在从以存货为基础的模式（电商只售卖储存在他们库房中的产品），转变为市场模式（利用平台将卖家和买家联系起来）。市场模式的资本密集度较低，能够更多地（也更早地）让股东盈利。

    在印度，Flipkart、Snapdeal、Myntra以及新加入的亚马逊，目前在电子商务市场处于领先位置。

    森加表示：“Flipkart非常引人注目，它的市场覆盖范围更广，在很多产品上具有很大影响力，回头客很多，订单源源不绝。”

    Flipkart位于印度南部的班加罗尔，由两位前亚马逊高管创立，以卖书起家，并随后拓展到包括生活、医疗和配饰等的14个领域。今年早些时候，它收购了同样位于班加罗尔的时装电商Myntra，后者希望此举能够帮助其统治印度的网络服装零售领域。

    Its rivals have been similarly busy. Snapdeal is the second-largest domestic player and has raised more than $200 million in expansion capital from equity partners that include sovereign wealth fund Temasek and eBay. It expects to achieve $1 billion in annual sales by 2015.

    Jabong, which is based in Gurgaon outside New Delhi, recently raised $100 million from a consortium of investors including the German tech incubator Rocket Internet.

    Foreign venture capital is being used by India’s e-commerce players to establish order processing centers and distribution channels that move beyond larger cities into rural communities. “Amazon took its time to study the market and really hit the ground running,” Putcha says. “It will be No. 1 in India in the next two years.”

    The American e-commerce giant was not able to make a similar impact in China because regulatory requirements made the entry of international competitors much more difficult, leaving Alibaba a relatively unobstructed run at domestic growth.

    Still, for all the competition and recent growth, the size of India’s e-commerce market will not rival that of China anytime soon. “China will outpace India’s e-commerce market for many years to come,” says Chris Christopher, an analyst at IHS. “Per-capita income levels are significantly higher in China than in India, Chinese access to consumer credit is more developed, and computer literacy is generally higher in China.”

    For all the investment and aggressive expansion, there’s one a big hurdle that India’s e-tailers have yet to leap: turning a profit. Transitioning to an Alibaba- or eBay-style marketplace model may help. “The logistics cost is still high, in the range of 15 percent of total cost, with higher returns especially for cash on delivery goods,” Sengar says.

    So will additional patience from foreign equity partners. “I don’t expect the players to be profitable in next three to five years,” he added.

    而Flipkart的竞争对手也同样繁忙。Snapdeal是印度第二大电商，它从淡马锡和eBay等权益合伙人那里募集了超过2亿美元的扩张资金。公司预计到2015年将实现10亿美元的年销售额。

    位于新德里卫星城古尔冈的Jabong最近也募集了1亿美元，投资的财团里包括德国的科技创业孵化公司Rocket Internet。

    印度的电子商务公司借助国外风投资本，建立了订单处理中心和销售渠道，并将它们从大城市拓展到农村地区。普恰表示：“亚马逊花了很多时间来研究市场，确实是在脚踏实地地运营。在接下来的两年中，它将成为印度电商领域的老大。”

    这家美国电子商务巨头没能在中国产生类似的影响力，因为中国的监管要求使得国外竞争者要进入中国市场十分困难，这让阿里巴巴在中国国内的发展相对畅通无阻。

    当然，尽管印度的电子商务市场有着良好的竞争环境，近来增速喜人，但在短期内仍然无法同中国相比。信息公司IHS的分析师克里斯•克里斯托弗表示：“在接下来许多年里，中国的电子商务市场都要领先于印度。中国的人均国民收入远超印度，中国的消费信贷更加发达，国民使用计算机的能力也强于印度。”

    尽管印度的电商在努力吸引投资，谋划扩张，但他们还需要跨越一个巨大的障碍：盈利。向阿里巴巴或是eBay的市场模式过渡也许能起到效果。森加表示：“印度的物流成本仍然很高，占到了总成本的15%。而货到付款的退货率也更高。”

    而国外的权益合伙人也需要更多一些耐心。森加补充道：“我不会指望印度的电商在接下来的三五年内就能盈利。”(财富中文网)

    译者：严匡正