Even in an industry where things happen at Internet speed, the purported reversal of fortune at Square was remarkably fast. In seemingly no time, the mobile payments startup led by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey went from darling to impending disaster. Square is a fast-growing but money-losing enterprise, reports proclaimed, with a high burn rate, shrinking balance sheet, and narrowing set of options.

    But several interviews with Square executives, board members, and people close to the company -- as well as a series of internal company e-mails obtained by Fortune -- suggest a far more subtle narrative.

    Square is certainly a company in transition. It has built a sizable and fast-growing payments business, which it is now trying to use as a springboard to expand into new and potentially more profitable areas. This week, the company introduced two new products intended to do just that. Success is hardly guaranteed, and the release comes in the wake of the failure of one of the company's high-profile products -- Square Wallet.

    The company has yet to turn a profit, but its losses are largely the result of the heavy investment it is making in new products. In the last year alone, Square added 300 employees. Its current headcount is nearing 900.

    Some earlier reports suggest Square loses money on every transaction in its core payments business. But internal e-mails show that gross margins on transactions -- the amount of profit left after paying card processors, payment networks and other intermediaries -- are a relatively healthy 34%. On a $100 transaction, the company takes a cut of about $3, which it records as revenue and from which it earns about $1 in gross profit. According to the internal e-mails, company is processing about $30 billion in transactions annually, which would put its gross profit at an annual rate of about $300 million. (These figures exclude the transactions Square handles on behalf of Starbucks; more on that below.)

    "The gross profits we earn on transactions already pay for the non-growth expenses of the company," said Roelof Botha, a partner at Sequoia Capital and a board member of Square. "We could be profitable tomorrow morning if we said, 'Lets not spend money to keep growing.' "

    Botha declined to comment on any specific financial figures. Aaron Zamost, a company spokesman, also declined to comment on specific financial information.

    Internal projections show that the company expects to start turning a profit about a year from now, according to the documents reviewed by Fortune. (An alternate plan that contemplates more aggressive investments in new products shows profitability would be delayed by a couple of months but would increase at a faster rate afterwards.) Though the company expects its cash reserves to decline between now and then, its projections show that a turnaround will happen before Square would run out of cash. Further, the company recently secured a $225 million line of credit -- a total higher than what has been previously reported -- that will give it additional breathing room. People familiar with the company's finances say that its projections are relatively conservative, and do not include revenue from Square's new (and as yet unproven) products, which could conceivably help the company reach profitability sooner.

    Though the company recorded am overall loss of roughly $100 million in 2013, its EBITDA loss, a commonly used accounting measure, was $67 million, according to the internal e-mails. The loss, which excludes Starbucks transactions, was $12 million lower than the company had projected and slightly smaller than the year before, the e-mails show.

    Botha declined to comment on any of the internal forecasts, but said that Square's business has been "incredibly predictable," meaning that revenue has grown in line with previous predictions.

    Square executives were stung by a recent story in the Wall Street Journal that suggested the company was at risk of running out of cash. The story also said that Square had discussed selling itself to deep-pocketed giants, most notably Google (GOOG). Square vehemently denied that it held acquisition talks with anyone.

    People familiar with the matter say that Square and Google had talks, but that they were centered around a possible investment in Square by Google Ventures, the company's venture capital arm. Square and Google Ventures declined to comment.

    It is not clear whether Square -- which has already raised a total of $367 million from investors -- is actively trying to raise additional funds. The company had about $155 million left on its balance sheet at the end of 2013, according to the internal emails. In the past, the company has been opportunistic about financing, raising money when it was possible to do so on favorable terms. Square executives seem to be confident that investors still find its shares attractive. When the company recently allowed employees to sell a limited number of their shares in a secondary offering, demand for the shares exceeded supply by about $40 million, according to internal e-mails. The company chose not to sell any of its own shares, even though it could have done so to close the gap and to raise additional funds in the process.

    The man charged with leading Square's transition into new product categories is GokulRajaram, a 39-year-old product engineering whiz who led the development of some of the most important ad technologies at Google and Facebook (FB) before joining Square nearly a year ago.   

    虽然互联网本身就是个瞬息万变的行业，但移动支付技术公司Square的命运大逆转也着实快得令人吃惊。几乎就在一瞬间，由Twitter共同创始人杰克•多尔西领导的Square公司就从春风得意陷入大难临头。据媒体报道，Square是一家增长得很快、但烧钱也很快的公司。现在，这家公司的资金消耗率很高，资产缩水，而且可选择的路也在变窄。

    但是通过对Square公司高管层、董事会成员以及消息人士的采访，以及通过《财富》获得的该公司的一系列内部邮件来看，Square的问题还要微妙得多。

    Square无疑是一家处在转型期的公司，它已经建立起了规模可观的支付业务，而且还在继续快速增长，现在它正试图利用这个跳板进军更有利可图的新领域。为此，这家公司还于本周推出了两款新产品。但是谁也难以给成功打保票。就在新产品发布前后，更引人注目的却是这家公司利润最高的产品之一、Square钱包的溃败。

    Square公司目前仍未转为盈利，不过它的亏损很大部分是大量投资新产品研发所造成的。光是去年一年，它就新招募了300名员工，目前的员工数量已经接近900人。

    此前的一些报道表示，Square核心支付业务的几乎每笔交易都在赔钱。但是，这家公司的内部电邮显示，这些交易的毛利润率（也就是在支付卡片处理机手续费、支付网络费用和其它中间费用之后的利润）是相对比较健康的34%。每处理一笔100美元的交易，它会收取大约3美元。这家公司把这3美元记为营收入，然后从这3美元中赚取大约1美元的毛利润。根据公司的内部邮件，它每年处理的交易达3000亿美元左右，这样它的年毛利润约为3亿美元。【这个数据没有包含Square处理的星巴克（Starbucks）的交易，具体见下文。】

    红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）合伙人、Square董事会成员罗洛夫•博萨指出：“我们通过交易获得的毛利已经足以抵补公司的非增长性支出。如果我们说：‘咱们不要再为了保持增长而花钱了’，那么我们可能明天就会转入盈利。”

    不过博萨拒绝对任何特定的财务数据发表评论。Square公司发言人亚伦•扎莫斯特同样对特定的财务数据不予置评。

    据《财富》获得的有关文件显示，根据Square的内部预测，这家公司预计将在一年以后实现盈利。（另外，这家公司还有一个替代方案，打算在新产品上更加激进地进行投资。如果是这样的话，那么Square扭亏为盈的时间可能会被推迟几个月，但届时它会以更快的速度增长。）虽然这家公司也预计它在此期间的现金储备会有所下降，但是从其内部预测来看，它会在现金流耗尽前实现扭亏为盈。另外Square公司最近获得了2.25亿美元的信用额度，高于前期一些的报道中所说的数额，这笔钱也将给Square带来额外的喘息空间。有熟悉这家公司财务状况的人士表示，Square的内部预测还算是相对保守的，而且它也没有算上新产品（虽然还未经证实）所带来的收益。如果算上新产品的推动作用，它无疑会帮助Square更快实现盈利。

    根据Square的内部邮件，虽然2013年该公司的账面亏损达近1亿美元，但是它的税息折旧及摊销前利润（这是一个常用的会计指标）是6700万美元。同时，亏损额（没有计算它处理的星巴克的交易）要比这家公司自己预测的低了1200万美元，同时也比上年度有所减少。

    博萨虽然对这些内部预测不予置评，但他表示Square的业务是“非常有可预见性”，也就是说收益的增长基本与之前的预期一致。

    最近《华尔街日报》（the Wall Street Journal ）的一篇文章称，Square存在烧光现金的风险，结果让Square的高管们很受伤。这篇报道还称，Square正打算把自己卖给某个财大气粗的科技巨头，最有可能吃下Square的就是谷歌（Google）。不过Square公司激烈地否认了公司在与任何人进行收购谈判。

    熟知此事内情的人士表示，Square和谷歌之前的确有过接洽，但双方的会谈主要围绕的是谷歌风投（Google Ventures）有可能对Square的投资。不过Square和谷歌都拒绝评论此事。

    我们现在还不清楚为什么Square在已经募集了3.67亿资金的情况下还在积极地追逐投资。根据这家公司的内部邮件，截至2013年年底，这家公司账上大约还有1.55亿美元资金。以往Square在融资上有点机会主义倾向，只要有机会以优惠条件融资就绝不放过机会。Square高管层似乎特别自信投资者会喜欢买它的股票。据内部邮件称，最近这家公司在二次发行时允许员工将数量有限的股票卖给外部人。结果这些股份非常抢手，供需缺口达到4000万美元。不过，这家公司本身选择不卖出任何自己持有的股权，哪怕这样可以缩小亏损额，同时还能在这个过程中获得额外资金。

    负责领导Square向新产品类别转型的是39岁的产品工程奇才戈库尔•拉甲兰。他一年前加盟Square，而在那之前，他曾经在谷歌和Facebook领导了一些最重要的广告技术的开发。

    The past week has been a busy one for Rajaram and his team. On Monday, the company launched Order, a new app that allows people to preorder and prepay for food from restaurants and coffee shops. The app replaces the once-ballyhooed mobile payment service Wallet after it failed to get wide consumer adoption. Square takes 2.75% of most transactions, but with Orders it will charge 8%. The app faces competition from PayPal, among others.

    On Tuesday, Square launched Feedback, its first subscription product. Feedback allows merchants to use receipts as a channel for communicating with customers. With the service, which costs $10 per month, merchants will be able to ask consumers to rate their experience. Merchants could then follow up with customers, offering discounts to those who were unhappy or sending coupons to fans. "It's an opportunity to start a conversation around a transaction," Rajaram said during an interview at Square headquarters.

    Rajaram said that the millions of transactions that Square processes through its credit card readers give it valuable data that it can turn into other money-making ventures. He said that Square Capital, a program to offer cash advances to merchants that it began testing in March, has had a high uptake rate among merchants in part because the company knows how to target the offers.

    Square has said little about the performance of its all-in-one cash register or Square Cash, its person-to-person payment service. But Wallet is not Square's only disappointment: Its high-profile deal with Starbucks has also failed to meet expectations.

    When asked about it, Botha took a long pause before saying: "It's dangerous to look at things with the benefit of hindsight." Based on what the company knew at the time, he said, it made sense to do the deal, which made Square the payment processor at 7,000 Starbucks locations. The company had hoped that the deal would boost adoption of Square Wallet, but that didn't pan out. Internal e-mails show the deal cost Square an additional $25 million in losses last year.

    Botha insists that plenty of good came from the deal, including the intangible boost to the Square brand and the benefit of having Starbucks founder Howard Schultz on Square's board of directors for a year. "Howard provided wonderful value to Jack and the team," Botha said.

    A big question is whether Square will grow into its $5 billion valuation. In a recent widely-read post, venture capitalist Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures warned about what we called the "valuation trap." "The combination of sky high valuations, equally high burn rates, and a disappearing IPO market is not a pleasant one," Wilson wrote. He said that Square and Box, which recently delayed its initial public offering, were both potentially facing that situation. Wilson wrote that he expected both companies to "navigate the valuation trap" but not without having to make "some hard choices."

    Botha dismissed those concerns, saying he had seen companies whose valuations had gotten ahead of their business prospects and suffered painful recapitalizations and financing rounds at decreasing valuations. "Do I worry with regards to Square?" he asked. "No."

    With no plans to go public this year, it's no surprise that the cooling of the I.P.O. market and the recent downturn in tech stocks is not a major concern for Square executives. A more immediate concern may be any sign that the company's core business stops growing at projected rates, whether from competition, a slowing economy, or the changing habits of consumers or merchants. If that happens, Square's well-laid plans may not amount to much.

    上周对拉贾兰和他的团队来说是异常繁忙的一周。5月12日，则会就爱公司发布了一款叫做Order的应用，人们可以通过这款应用从餐馆和咖啡厅预订餐饮并提前付费。这款应用取代了一度名噪一时、但最终用者寥寥的移动支付应用“Square钱包”。Square对大多数交易收取2.75%的手续费，但Order将收取高达8%的手续费。这款应用预计将面临来自贝宝（PayPal）和其它一些应用的竞争。

     5月13日，Square发布了它的首款订阅产品Feedback，它使商家可以把电子收据当成与顾客沟通的渠道。这项服务的费用是每个月10美元，订阅之后，商家就可以请消费者对他们的消费体验打分。然后商家可以对这些顾客进行回访，给不大满意的顾客提供折扣，或是给顾客发放优惠卷。拉贾兰在Square总部接受采访时表示：“这是围绕交易开展一次交流的机会。”

    拉贾兰表示，Square通过信用卡读卡器处理的海量交易使它获取了大量宝贵数据，公司可以把它们转换成其它生钱的业务。比如，这家公司有一个叫做“Square资本”的计划，可以向商家提供预借现金额度。这家公司从今年三月起开始测试这项业务，由于它知道该向哪些商家推销这项业务，所以采用这项业务的商家比率很高。

    Square在采访中很少谈及它的个人对个人支付服务Square Cash。不过“Square钱包”也并不是唯一一款让公司失望的产品，它与星巴克的高调合作也没有达到预期的利润。

    问到这个问题时，博萨想了片刻，才说：“从‘事后诸葛亮’的角度看事物是危险的。”他表示，从当时的角度看，Square与星巴克的这项合作合情合理，因为Square可以处理7000家星巴克门店的交易。另外Square还想通过这次合作促进Square钱包的采用率，但事情并没有朝着当初预想的方向发展。内部邮件显示，这笔合作使Square每年要多亏损2500万美元。

    博萨坚称，这笔交易还是给公司带来了很多好处的，比如无形中推进了Square的品牌，另外还把星巴克的创始人霍华德•舒尔茨吸引进Square董事会担任了一年的董事。他说：“霍华德为杰克和我们的团队提供了很好的价值。”

    另外一个重要的问题是，Square的估值是否真的被估到了50亿美元。最近合广风投基金（Union Square Ventures）的风投家弗莱德•威尔森在一篇广泛流传的文章中警告了我们所谓的“估值陷阱”。威尔森在这篇文章中写道：“天价估值、同样天价的烧钱速度，加上没了下文的IPO，绝对不是令人安心的迹象。”威尔森表示，Square公司和最近同样推迟了IPO的Box公司都有最终出现这种局面的可能。他还指出，他希望这两家公司都能“走出估值陷阱”，但在这个过程中，他们未必不需要做出“一些艰难的选择”。

    博萨否了存在这种担忧，他表示，他也曾见过一些公司的估值远超业务预期，最后由于估值猛跌而经历了痛苦的资产重组。然后他反问道：“你问我担心Square这方面的问题吗？我不担心。”

    既然今年没有了上市的计划，Square的高管自然也无需担心IPO市场转冷以及近期科技股普遍走低这些问题了。摆在他们面前更紧迫的问题是，公司的核心业务是否存在未能按预期速度增长的迹象——不管背后的原因是竞争、经济放缓，还是因为消费者或商家习惯的转变。如果真的出现了这种迹象，Square的如意算盘可能就要落空了。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎