想在索尼公司（Sony）的PlayStation 4和微软公司（Microsoft）的Xbox One这两大游戏机的生死对决中判定赢家的人恐怕得等上一阵了。这两台分别于去年11月推出的游戏机一上市就势头强劲。由于太受热捧，现在想在索尼的日本总部找到一台PS4可能都变成了和游戏闯关一样的任务。

    现在PS4的全球销量已超600万台，其中包括今年2月它在日本首发第一周卖出的30万台。不过，紧接着第二周销量就下跌到了不到3万台。并不是因为玩家们对这台最新神器兴趣减退，而是因为索尼公司的供应链瓶颈所致——某种程度上也是因为索尼想在北美地区卖出更多的设备，PS4在北美售价为399.99美元。

    IDC公司游戏研究总监路易斯•沃德说：“索尼的销量远超其预期。他们原本希望3月底能销售500万台——这意味着很多设备将先运到店。但实际上他们发现零售数量已超过600万台，所以说实际销量远超预期。但他们并没有就此大肆庆功。毕竟近年来索尼公司一直境况不佳，所以他们也没有开香槟庆祝销售佳绩。”

    索尼在加拿大采取了特殊政策，把售价从399.99加元提高到了449.99加元。公司表示，这是“应对市场环境变化”的必须之举。它表明，索尼在解决供需难题时也开始高度关注盈利能力。

    市场研究公司IHS Technology的游戏研究总监兼主管皮尔斯•哈丁-罗尔斯说：“索尼一直在努力管理好库存和区域产品发货。最困难的情况下可能需要空运、而不是海运，而这类措施会增加索尼的成本。”同样清楚的是，PS4上市以来美元对加元就一直走强。考虑到这家公司在美元地区的成本，提价将消除这种不平衡。这样的快速行动表明，索尼电脑娱乐（SCE，索尼子公司，游戏机、游戏软件开发、制造与销售商——译注）准备采取一切必要手段从一开始就谋求盈利。可以理解的是，在PS4大卖的背景下，打这种算盘更容易。”

    微软的Xbox全球销量紧随索尼，约为400万台。尽管从全球范围看PS4是领头羊，但它们在北美地区却势均力敌。

    哈丁-罗尔斯告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune）：“两者的销量差距正日益缩小，而且，随着（新发游戏）《泰坦坠落》（Titanfall）的大受欢迎，它将进一步助推Xbox One大步追赶。不过索尼的上市前战略每一步都精准有效，始终坚持简单易懂的‘只为玩家’的品牌理念，所以PS4玩家都积极响应索尼毫不动摇、专注游戏的口号。但微软却围绕提供多种娱乐体验泛泛而谈，稀释了自己的品牌理念。”

    此外还有价格问题。Xbox One比PS4贵100美元。哈丁-罗尔斯说：“价格更贵也意味着处境不利。在某些市场，价格缺乏弹性往往会使消费者仅有的一点品牌忠诚度荡然无存，同时使他们更愿意选择PS4——英国就是个最好的例子。不过在全球范围内，这两台机器的售价都超出了玩家预期，从这一点看，它们未来都能取得更大成功。”

    Anyone looking t¬o declare a victory in the videogame console showdown between Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One had better be prepared for a long wait. The systems, which each launched last November, are actually off to a strong start; so much so that even finding a PS4 in Sony's home turf of Japan could be a task worthy of a videogame adventure.

    Sony (SNE) has surpassed the 6 million mark in sales worldwide for the PS4, and this includes 300,000 consoles that sold in the first week that the system went on sale in Japan in February. However, the number of sales dropped to less than 30,000 in the second week. It wasn't that gamers weren't interested in Sony's latest gaming console, but rather that the consumer electronics giant had experienced supply constraints -- partially as a result of trying to get more systems out in North America. The PS4 is available in North America for $399.99.

    "Sony is ahead of where they expected to be," said Lewis Ward, research director of gaming at IDC. "They expected to reach about 5 million sales by the end of the March -- meaning that many systems would be shipped to stores. In fact, they have seen sell-through to consumers that topped 6 million. Sony is way ahead of where they wanted to be, but they are not taking a victory lap just yet. Sony as a company has been struggling in recent years, so they aren't exactly popping Champagne."

    Sony took the unique move to raise the price of the system in Canada from C$399.99 to C$449.99, which the company said was needed "to respond to changes in the market environment." This could be an indicator that the company is very much focused on its own profitability as it addresses supply and demand challenges.

    "Sony has been working hard to manage its inventory and regional product shipments. In the most difficult cases this can mean flying in consoles rather than shipping, and this sort of action can increase costs to Sony," said Piers Harding-Rolls, director and head of games research at IHS Technology. "Also it is clear that the U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar since launch, and with the company's costs in the region in U.S. currency, the price increase is there to smooth out the imbalance. A quick-fire move like this suggests that SCE is ready to do what it takes to drive profitability into the division as early as possible in the cycle. Understandably, this financial prudence is easier to implement while the PS4 is selling strongly."

    Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox trails Sony with about 4 million units sold worldwide, and while on a global basis it is clear that the PS4 holds the lead, it is a much closer race in North America.

    "The sales gap is closer, and with [the newly released game] Titanfall well-received this will have aided Xbox One further," Harding-Rolls told Fortune. "Sony hit all the right notes with its pre-launch strategy and stuck to its simple 'for the gamers' message. The console audience responded to this non-wavering concentration on gaming, whereas Microsoft's message was more generalized around a broader entertainment offering and watered down."

    Then there is the issue of price. Microsoft's Xbox One came out at $100 more than Sony's PS4, and "the higher price also meant it was at a disadvantage," added Harding-Rolls. "In some markets a lack of price elasticity overcame residual brand loyalty and resulted in better momentum for the PS4 -- the U.K. is a leading example. However, both platforms have sold above and beyond expectations globally, and on this basis, there is a strong platform there for future success for both consoles."

    靠新游戏继续辉煌

    由于在百思买（Best Buy）和沃尔玛（Walmart）这样的大卖场，Xbox One和《泰坦坠落》游戏（可下载版）绑定后，售价为449.99美元，微软更有望缩小和PS4的差距。考虑到这款游戏单卖就要60美元，这个捆绑销售套装实际上使Xbox One比PS4还便宜。这款科幻史诗巨作被广大玩家视为微软少有的几款“杀手级应用”，对Xbox One的意义将和当年的《光环》（Halo）对Xbox和Xbox 360一样。

    但不管哪台游戏机，要想成为超级力作，都需要不止一款游戏支撑。在缺少“必不可少”之作的情况下，索尼和微软可能都要从第三方游戏开发商那里寻找独家供应的游戏以激发玩家的热情。

    《电游月刊》（Electronic Gaming Monthly）的游戏评论家兼自由撰稿人保罗•塞梅尔说：“考虑到上市时略显惨淡的游戏阵容，这两台机器的销量已经算是佳绩了。这也说明游戏机并不像有些人说的那么式微。它们目前的销量还不算辉煌，假日季才会是真正的考验，因为那时这两台机器都将推出更多独家游戏。目前我们发现，死忠玩家对这两台机器都很热衷，但他们总归要在其中选择一台。”

    缺乏重磅游戏力作仍是这两家公司面临的最大问题，它们要在下一个假日季前的数月中设法防止增长势头衰减。

    游戏发行商Phoenix Online Publishing主管兼行业咨询师斯科特•斯坦伯格说：“这两款游戏机上市时可玩游戏都不多，让人没什么理由非买它们不可，尤其是眼下像《使命召唤》（Call of Duty）这样的顶级巨作依然能在旧平台上玩。不过这并不是光靠索尼和微软就能解决的问题。开发者和发行商还需要熟悉适应它们，与此同时，因为游戏制作代价日益高昂，发行商愿意承担的风险也越来越小。还有一个问题是，它们都没有安装平台，这也让开发者和发行商都不愿意马上为它们效力。”

    这又是个“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的问题，但这个问题最终肯定会得到解决。凭借这两台最新游戏机，这两家公司可能都会从小型或独立游戏开发工作室寻找富有潜力的重磅力作，而不是冒着风险自己投钱开发。

    IDC的沃德说：“这一次独立游戏开发工作室将更加举足轻重。微软靠Mindcraft赚了一大笔，那时它还没生产Xbox 360呢，而这款游戏就已经让它名声大噪了。结果现在，所有公司都想拉拢独立工作室。产品销售看涨时，要和小型或独立工作室密切合作并获得独家游戏就会容易得多。这样一来，这类公司会获得更多轰动性的力作，也会得到媒体更大的关注。这一切并不能让它们多卖几台游戏机，但会让它们的设备稍微显得与众不同。”

    显然，索尼和微软都要设法让自己的新款游戏机赢得众多关注，这一部分是通过延长产品生命周期、同时创造对新机器的潜在需求来实现的。

    斯坦伯格说：“它们策略的高明之处在于，造足了舆论，也让玩家有充分理由想买一台。”现在它们要做的是，想法设法维持销售看涨的势头。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    A turn to titles

    Microsoft could also look to close the gap as bundles of the Xbox One with the aforementioned Titanfall (as a downloadable version) have been offered by big-box retailers such as Best Buy and Walmart for $449.99. Given that the game itself retails for nearly $60, the bundle actually made the Xbox One cheaper than the PS4. The sci-fi epic is seen as one of the few true "killer apps" for Microsoft's system and could do for it what the Halo franchise had done for the original Xbox and the Xbox 360.

    But it will take more than a single title to make either of the next-generation systems a mega-hit. Lacking a "must-have" game, Sony and Microsoft may look at exclusive offerings from third-party game developers to spur interest.

    "Given the somewhat anemic launch lineup, the systems have done have really well. This is a sign that console gaming isn't as dead as people said it is," said Paul Semel, a videogame reviewer and freelance editor for Electronic Gaming Monthly. "It is still a ways off, but this coming holiday season will be the real test, as that is when there are more exclusive titles for each system. Right now what we've seen is that the hardcore gamers have gotten really excited about these systems, but they were going to buy one or the other anyway."

    A lack of notable games is still the biggest problem that both companies will need to resist losing momentum in the many months before the next holiday season.

    "These systems did not arrive with massive software lineups, which does limit the reason to opt for a new system, especially when the biggest games like Call of Duty are on the old systems," said Scott Steinberg, head of Phoenix Online Publishing and industry consultant. "But this isn't just something you can lay at the feet of Sony and Microsoft. Developers and publishers need to get up to speed, but at the same time publishers are taking fewer and fewer risks especially as games cost an arm and a leg to make. There is the added problem too that these new systems don't have the install base, so there is less incentive for the developers and publishers to want to be there right away."

    It's a "chicken or egg" issue that will undoubtedly be resolved. With the latest consoles, both companies may look to smaller or independent game studios to find potential hits without the risk or expense of developing them elsewhere.

    "The indie game development studios could make a big difference this time," said IDC's Ward. "Microsoft did big business with Mindcraft, and while it didn't make or break the Xbox 360, it got a lot of buzz. As a result, everyone is trying to court the indies right now. It is much easier to tie up a micro-studio or small indie studio on the way up and get serious exclusives. That is where the companies can get more bang and get a lot of press as a result. They won't sell a lot of hardware from it, but it gives a little more differentiation on the hardware front."

    Sony and Microsoft have certainly managed to create a lot of buzz around their new videogame consoles, partly by lengthening the life cycle of the product and creating pent-up demand for something new.

    "What they've done right is to make a lot of noise and establish a reason with gamers for wanting to purchase the systems," Steinberg said. Now all the companies have to do is figure out a way to maintain the momentum.