财富中文网 >> 理财

第一次!巴菲特5年期回报率不敌标普500

分享: [译文]

    Buffett's Berkshire invested $4.7 billion of net new money in stocks during 2013.

    In a practice he began when running a hedge fund 50 years ago, Warren Buffett has always positioned his company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), as being in annual competition with the S&P 500 index's total return—and right now that's not working too well for him.

    Announcing Berkshire's 2013 results this morning, Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders that book value per-share—Buffett's standard yardstick in this competition—rose by 18.2% to $134,973. That's a very solid performance. But the S&P 500 index, having its best year since 1997, had a huge total return of 32.4%.

    Furthermore, though Buffett doesn't specifically talk about this in his annual letter to shareholders, these results capped a five-year period, year-end 2008 to year-end 2013, in which the S&P 500 beat Berkshire's gain in book value per-share—the first such period in Berkshire's history. For the five years, the S&P index jumped 128%. Berkshire's book value per-share rose by only 91%.

    Buffett has in the past attached importance to the five-year record because he believes that book value is a rough indicator—directionally correct, but greatly understated—of how Berkshire's intrinsic value is rising. If Berkshire's intrinsic value doesn't beat the S&P over the years, Buffett asks, why shouldn't the company's shareholders simply defect and buy a passive investment like the S&P index? (Please note how rarely you have heard a CEO ask his shareholders for this kind of close analysis.)

    Obviously there's nothing magic about a precise five years, and in his new letter Buffett in fact appends a year to the calculation. He points out that over the entire stock market cycle—between year-ends 2007 and 2013—Berkshire outperformed the S&P. That would be because Berkshire, No. 5 in last year's Fortune 500, is these days more of an operating company than a stock market investment vehicle while the S&P is, of course, pure stocks. The year 2008 was therefore a disaster for the S&P: its return was minus 37%. Berkshire's book value per share fell as well, but by only 9.6%. For the entire six-year period, Berkshire's book value per share rose 73% to the S&P's total return gain of 44%.

    Buffett uses book value as a yardstick because it includes all capital gains—including those unrealized, which the more popular indicator of earnings does not. Even so, many press accounts of Berkshire's 2013 record will surely report the earnings figures that the company released today, and these will be excellent. For the company's A shares, earnings per share were up 32% to $11,850. That's against yesterday's stock-price close of $173,700.

    Berkshire's increase in pretax profits from $22.2 billion in 2012 to $28.8 billion in 2013 reflected $3.9 billion in realized investment gains (emanating from both equities and fixed-income securities) and generally favorable operating results throughout this hugely complex company. They showed up in insurance; at major subsidiaries Burlington Northern Santa Fe and MidAmerican Energy, and other industrial units; and in retail and housing. Derivatives, under intense shareholder surveillance for the last few years, contributed $2.6 billion to pre-tax profits in 2013—up from about $2 billion the year before.

    沃伦•巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司2013年向股市净增投资47亿美元。

    多年来,巴菲特每年都会将伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)与标普500指数的总回报率进行对比。50年前,巴菲特还在经营一家对冲基金时就开始了这种做法,但2013年的对比数据可不太好看。

    巴菲特日前公布了伯克希尔的2013年的业绩,并在年度致股东信中表示,每股账面价值(这是巴菲特用于此项对比的基准指标)增长了18.2%,达到了134,973美元。表现非常稳健。但同期,标普500指数经历了1997年以来最好的一年,总回报率高达32.4%。

    虽然巴菲特在致股东信中没有特别提到,但2013年这样的表现使得伯克希尔的5年期每股账面价值(2008年底至2013年底)涨幅落后于标普500指数——这是伯克希尔有史以来的第一次。这5年中,标普指数大涨128%。伯克希尔每股账面价值的涨幅只有91%。

    巴菲特过去一直非常看重5年期数据,他相信账面价值是衡量伯克希尔内在价值增长情况的一个大致指标(方向正确,但不能充分反映)。巴菲特问到,如果伯克希尔的内在价值增长不能跑赢标普指数,为什么公司股东不干脆退出,转而购买像标普指数这样的被动投资工具?(请注意,一位CEO向股东问出这样细致的问题,是颇为少见的事情。)

    显然,5年的时间跨度并没有什么神奇之处,巴菲特在最新的致股东信中事实上还增加了一年用于计算。他指出,在整个股市周期中(2007年底至2013年底)——伯克希尔的表现都优于标准普尔指数。这是因为伯克希尔(去年在《财富》美国500强公司中排名第五)更大程度上是一家运营企业,不是股市投资工具,而标普指数当然全部是股票。因此,2008年对于标普指数是灾难性的一年,回报率为负37%。伯克希尔的每股账面价值也下跌了,但跌幅仅仅只有9.6%。在这整个6年期间,伯克希尔的每股账面价值增长了73%,而标准普尔指数总回报率增长了44%。

    巴菲特用账面价值作为衡量标准的原因是因为其中包含了全部资本收益,包括未实现收益,而更常用的收益指标并不包含未实现收益。即便如此,很多媒体在报道伯克希尔2013年业绩时肯定会报告这家公司3月1日发布的收益数据,而这些数据相当漂亮。至于这家公司的A股,每股收益增长32%,达到了11,850美元。计算的基础是以2月28日173,700美元的收盘价。

    伯克希尔的税前利润从2012年的222亿美元增长到了2013年的288亿美元,反映了39亿美元的已实现投资收益(来自股票和固定收益证券)以及整个公司总体良好的运营业绩。良好的业绩表现在保险、主要子公司Burlington Northern Santa Fe和MidAmerican Energy及其他工业子公司、零售与住房领域。过去几年,股东们盯得很紧的衍生品投资在2013年贡献了26亿美元的税前利润,上一年约为20亿美元。


    While Berkshire was selling stocks in 2013 to a minor degree, it was concurrently putting a slightly larger amount of net new money, about $4.7 billion, into them. Nearly $1 billion of that went into Buffett's biggest holding, Wells Fargo (WFC), whose value to Berkshire at the end of the year was a colossal $22 billion. Buffett didn't touch his share-count in two other monster stakes, Coca-Cola (KO) and American Express (AXP), and bought just a few more shares in a third, IBM (IBM).

    Buffett also used his letter to introduce another giant stationed in the wings: Bank of America (BAC). Berkshire owns warrants that entitle it to buy 700 million shares of BofA for $5 billion at any time prior to September 2021. And at year-end 2013, those shares were worth $10.9 billion. Bank of America, said Buffett in his shareholder letter, was therefore suiting up to become Berkshire's fifth largest equity investment—"and one," he added, "we value highly."

    Overpowering all of these Berkshire details was the stock market surge of 2013, which carried the company's mammoth equity holdings with it. Berkshire began the year with $87.7 billion in common stocks, added that $4.7 billion in net new money, and ended 2013 with $117.5 billion in common stocks. And that dollar figure doesn't include Berkshire's $12.25 billion investment last year in preferred stock, common stock, and warrants of Heinz. (For more about Buffett's interest in Heinz, read this story by Fortune's Stephen Gandel.)

    Here's another way to look at Berkshire's common stock experience in 2013. At the beginning of the year, Berkshire had about $38 billion of unrealized gains on its common stocks. By Dec. 31, it had $61 billion.

    Buffett is quick to give credit for Berkshire's stock market gains to the two investment lieutenants he hired in the last few years, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. Both, Buffett says in his letter, handily outperformed the S&P 500 in 2013. And each is now running a portfolio that exceeds $7 billion.

    As he did a year ago, Buffett confesses that their investments outdid his own. If such "humiliating comparisons" continue, he adds, "I'll have no choice but to cease talking about them."

    Fortune senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, who wrote this article, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's, the pro bono editor of his annual letter to shareholders, and a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder.

    2013年,伯克希尔的售股力度小了一些,股票净新增投资额略增至约47亿美元。有近10亿美元投入到巴菲特的第一重仓股富国银行(Wells Fargo),2013年底伯克希尔手头持有的这只股票价值高达220亿美元。巴菲特没有调整另外两只重仓股可口可乐(Coca-Cola))和美国运通(American Express)的持股数量,只是略微增持了IBM股票。

    巴菲特在致股东信中还介绍了另一只重仓股:美国银行(Bank of America)。伯克希尔拥有的认股权证可在2021年9月前以50亿美元购买7亿股美国银行股票。2013年底,这些股票价值109亿美元。巴菲特在致股东信中表示,美国银行适合成为伯克希尔的第五大重仓股,还补充说,“我们非常看好它的价值”。

    撇开持股详情不谈,推动伯克希尔庞大持股走高的是2013年整体股市大涨。2013年年初,伯克希尔持有877亿美元的普通股,加上年内净新增股票投资47亿美元,2013年底持有普通股价值达到1175亿美元。这个数字不包括去年伯克希尔投资122.5亿美元的亨氏(Heinz)优先股、普通股和认股权证。(关于巴菲特持有的亨氏权益,请参见《财富》(Fortune)杂志史蒂芬•甘德尔的这篇文章。

    我们还可以换一种方式来看2013年伯克希尔的普通股投资。2013年初,伯克希尔持有的普通股未实现收益约380亿美元。到2013年12月31日,未实现收益达到了610亿美元。

    巴菲特将伯克希尔股市收益归功于近几年招募的投资副手托德•康布斯和泰德•韦斯勒。巴菲特在致股东信中表示,2013年两人都轻松超越了标普500指数的表现。两个人每人都管理着超过70亿美元的投资组合。

    与一年前一样,巴菲特承认这两个人的投资表现好于他自己。他补充说,如果这种“令人尴尬的对比”继续下去,我毫无选择,只能避而不谈这两个人。(财富中文网)

    本文作者、《财富》资深自由撰稿人卡罗尔•卢米斯是沃伦•巴菲特的多年好友,负责免费起草巴菲特每年的“致股东信”,也是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股东。

阅读全文

相关阅读:

  1. 沃伦·巴菲特看好……女人
  2. 失误变收购:巴菲特表演投资魔术
  3. 小投资,大回报:企业界热捧健康新宝典
  4. 跟巴菲特一起奔跑
  5. 巴菲特2014股东信:我的投资秘笈
返回顶部
#jsonld#