In 2013, bitcoin's valuation didn't just skyrocket, but its infrastructure, services, and adoption exploded as well, culminating in recent announcements that major online retailer Overstock.com and NBA team the Sacramento Kings would accept the digital currency as payment.

    Some still doubt bitcoin's usefulness and durability, but 2014 may leave skeptics even further behind -- developers and entrepreneurs are already hard at work building features on top of the Bitcoin protocol that will allow for the decentralized execution of financial services, from currency hedging to loans to stock issuance to rental and purchase contracts. These new services rely on the same innovative proof-of-work model of distributed security and record-keeping that has kept the bitcoin currency secure as its value ballooned well past $10 billion. In the long term, peer-to-peer finance threatens to weaken banks and other financial agents just as peer-to-peer file sharing did the music industry -- and some of the architects of this financial Napster seem gleeful about the possibility.

    The Bitcoin protocol (crucially distinct from bitcoin, the currency it underlies) was built from the ground up to support far more complex transactions and relationships than simple value transfers. (Example: "Send five bitcoins to Steve.") Some of the kinds of transactions that Bitcoin can support include so-called M of N transactions, which require agreement between a certain subset of a group, and can be used for escrow, mediation, or shared financial management; time-locked transactions, in which bitcoins are distributed on a strict schedule, useful for trusts or wills; and even data-conditional transactions, in which a script uses a data input such as a regular Google search to monitor real-world events that would automatically trigger disbursements or other actions. More conditional on infrastructure development is the possibility of "smart property," with contracts enforced by digital locks interacting with the Bitcoin blockchain to manage real-world leases, mortgages, and purchase contracts.

    All aspects of these transactions would be programmed and automatic, with their transactional integrity guaranteed by the Bitcoin blockchain, constantly vetted by the vast network of "miners" rewarded for their maintenance work with a stream of bitcoin. In fact, the comparison to Napster is somewhat inaccurate, since Napster used centralized servers to track music sharing, while Bitcoin is entirely distributed. That means loans without banks, contracts without lawyers, and stocks without brokers, executed and recorded across hundreds of servers at all corners of the earth.

    Consultant Andreas M. Antonopoulos, echoing a 2012 white paper by software developer J.R. Willett, says that the Bitcoin protocol is to distributed finance what Internet Protocol has been to distributed information. "The blockchain is IP. And through manipulation of that we can build a whole other system." In the same way that IP and the infrastructure of network nodes that make up the Internet now support functions from e-mail to video streaming, the Bitcoin protocol and its miners can support a variety of financial functions. Alternately, Antonopoulos suggests thinking of the "Bitcoin blockchain as having an API" (application programming interface) that makes its data usable by third parties, in the same way that second-layer services like Buffer or Hootsuite use the Twitter API to present and interact with Twitter data in slightly modified or reorganized forms.

    2013年，比特币不仅价值一飞冲天，基础设施、配套服务、用户接受程度也同样突飞猛进。而最近随着主流电商Overstock.com和美职篮（NBA）的萨克拉门托国王队（Sacramento Kings）公开宣布将接受数字货币作为支付方式，比特币热潮更是达到了顶点。

    有些人还在质疑比特币的有用性和耐用性，但2014年这些抱怀疑态度的人可能会进一步跟不上形势的发展——开发者和企业家们已开始在比特币协议的基础上努力开发各种功能。它们将使各种金融服务实现分散操作，从货币对冲到贷款，从股票发行到租赁及购买合同，都会如此。这些新服务都要靠同一个分布式安全和记录的工作量证明（proof-of-work）模型来实现，正是这个模型让比特币的总值超过100亿美元后仍能保持安全。长期来看，点对点融资将会弱化银行和其他金融机构，对它们的生存造成威胁，正如当年点对点文件传输让音乐产业如临大敌一样——而这个金融纳普斯特（Napster，当年著名的点对点MP3下载分享软件——译注）的一些建构师似乎很乐于看到这种前景变成现实。

    比特币协议（它与比特币根本不同，是比特币建立的基础）是为了支持更复杂的交易和金融关系而从头至尾一点点构建起来的，简单的转账不是它服务的对象（比如什么“转五个比特币给斯蒂夫”这类业务）。比特币支持的几种交易方式中有一种所谓“N的M”（M of N）交易。它要求一群人中的特定子群之间签有协议，并能用于第三方支付、仲裁或财务管理共享；锁时交易，即比特币按照严格的时间进程分发，用于信托或遗嘱；甚至还包括基于数据的交易，即脚本利用谷歌（Google）的定期搜索信息这类数据监控现实中可能会自动触发支付或其他交易行为的各种事件。更依赖基础设施开发的是可能出现的“智能财产”（smart property），即通过和比特币数据区块链（blockchain，数据区块记录了整个比特币网络上的交易记录数据，并且这些数据是被所有比特币节点共享的。通过数据区块，可以查询到每一笔比特币交易的历史——译注）相互作用的数码锁执行的合同来管理现实世界的合同、抵押贷款和采购合同。

    这些交易的所有环节都是经过编程并自动完成的，交易可靠性由比特币数据区块链来保障。这个数据区块会经常接受大批“矿工”的审核，而他们主要靠维护连串比特币的工作而获酬。实际上，拿纳普斯特来打比方并不十分确切，因为纳普斯特是用中央服务器来追踪音乐分享的，而比特币交易则是完全分散的。这就意味着，贷款不需要通过银行，签合同无需律师帮忙，炒股也不用假手经纪人。所有这些交易都通过分散在全球各地的成千上万台服务器来完成并记录在案。

    咨询师安德里亚斯•M. 安托诺坡罗斯回应软件开发者J.R.威利特所写的一份2012年白皮书时称，比特币协议对于分散式金融正像当年的互联网协议对于分布式信息的意义一样：“数据区块链就是IP地址。控制好这个就能打造一个完全不同的系统。”正如IP和组成互联网的网络节点基础设施现在支持从电子邮件到流媒体视频这些功能一样，比特币协议及其矿工也能为众多金融功能提供支持。不过，安托诺坡罗斯建议应把“比特币数据区块链”看成“拥有一种API（应用程序接口）”。它能让其数据为第三方所用，就像Buffer公司或Hootsuite公司这类第二层服务供应商使用Twitter的API用稍作调整或重新组织的形式呈现Twitter数据或与之互动一样。

    Efforts to make complex financial functions a part of Bitcoin have been bubbling through 2013, but 2014 will see them come to fruition. The most prominent active development of these functions is taking place under the auspices of the Mastercoin Foundation, a nonprofit organization of developers along the same loose, collaborative lines that define most "cryptocoin projects." Mastercoin, based on Willett's white paper and programming, is projected to add many functions to the Bitcoin blockchain. These include allowing users to create new asset classes, such as stocks or other ownership certificates, and create a variety of automated "smart contracts."

    Independent entrepreneurs are also working to build this infrastructure. One of these is Reggie Middleton, currently building a client called BTC Swap. Middleton, gravelly voiced, dapper, and businesslike, doesn't fit the stereotype of woolly young bitcoin developers. But he slyly describes himself as "not quite an anarchist," and BTC Swap is a shot directly across the bow of the financial industry. Still in early development, BTC Swap is planned to facilitate a variety of what Middleton calls "Zero-Trust Digital Contracts," which recreate financial functions in software code by matching offered and desired transactions between parties without the need for intermediary institutions. Because these contracts are automated, instantaneous, and executed with assets already represented in the Bitcoin blockchain, Middleton says they eliminate counterparty risk while also subtracting conventional banking and brokerage fees.

    The most immediate function Middleton envisions for his system is for hedging bitcoin against existing national currencies. With bitcoin's valuation still showing huge volatility, Middleton claims the availability of distributed hedging will both ensure the value of bitcoin for individuals holding the asset and provide systemic stability. (Given persistent skepticism, there should be plenty of takers to short bitcoin against the dollar.) And the entire system relies on decentralization for its security and integrity: "My contracts are peer-to-peer," says Middleton. "If you hack my servers, there's nothing to get." Somebody call Target (TGT).

    Such hedging functions have particularly unique promise because of the extremely low transaction costs of peer-to-peer currency. Bitcoin makes microtransactions ranging down to fractions of a cent viable, but Middleton says that "right now, if you do micropayments, the volatility of bitcoin can really take you out." Because of the low cost of Middleton's swaps, "I can let [payees] manage risk and decrease volatility at the micro-level."

    2013年以来，业界一直在鼓噪要努力使复杂的金融功能成为比特币的一部分，但2014年才是真正开花结果的年份。对这些功能最积极的开发活动都是在“大师币基金会”（Mastercoin Foundation）主导下进行的。这是一个开发者们按照与大多数“加密数字货币项目”同样松散的合作方式组成的非营利组织。它是基于威利特的白皮书和编程建立起来的，旨在往比特币数据区块链里增加众多金融功能，包括允许用户创建全新的资产类别，比如股票或其他所有权证书，同时创建一系列自动“智能合同”。

    一些单打独斗的创业者也在努力建设这个基础设施。其中一位就是雷吉•米德尔顿，他目前正在打造一个叫BTC Swap的客户端。他声音沙哑，短小精悍，看起来很像个生意人，跟传统上那种年纪轻轻、邋里邋遢的比特币开发者形象迥异。但他狡黠地称自己“不算是个无政府主义者”，而且BTC Swap恰恰就是直接对目前的金融业发出的警告。BTC Swap目前还处于早期开发阶段，旨在促进米德尔顿所说的“零信任数字合同”的发展。它主要是用软件代码来重新实现各种金融功能，直接撮合交易的供需双方，而不再需要中介机构的帮助。由于这些合同自动签署、即刻完成，同时它们主要适用于那些已经在比特币数据区块链上有所体现的资产，因此米德尔顿称它们能消除交易双方的风险，也能大幅降低传统的银行和中介机构收费。

    米德尔顿希望，他这套系统眼下立刻就能发挥的功能是用比特币来对现有的各国货币进行套期保值交易。鉴于比特币的价值目前仍然波动剧烈，米德尔顿宣称分散的套期交易如果可行，将能确保那些持有比特币的个人手中资产的价值，同时让系统保持稳定（考虑到很多人一直对比特币持怀疑态度，应该会出现大量买家卖空比特币对冲美元）。而且，整个系统都要依靠去中心化才能确保安全性和可靠性。米德尔顿说：“我的这些合同都是点对点的，如果有人黑了我的服务器，他们什么都得不到。”听听，有人在这里叫阵呢。

    由于点对点货币交易的成本极低，这种对冲功能确实有很独特的发展前景。比特币使少至一分钱的几分之几这种微交易也能进行，但米德尔顿说：“就现在来说，如果进行这种微支付，比特币价值的巨大波动肯定会让你损失惨重。”而因为米德尔顿的互惠信贷端成本很低，“我能让（受款人）掌控风险并将波动性降到极低的水平。”

    The most speculative and long-range potential functions of peer-to-peer finance and smart contracts are forms of what's known as "Smart Property." This idea was explored in a 1997 paper by computer scientist and former George Washington University law professor Nick Szabo (who has come under occasional suspicion of being pseudonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto). In the paper, Szabo defines smart contracts as agreements enforced not by law, but by hardware or software that would "fully embed in property the contractual terms which deal with it." Szabo offers the humble vending machine as an existing case. But combining telecommunications with the Bitcoin blockchain presents more intriguing possibilities -- for example, cars able to read the blockchain could disable themselves if a loan payment wasn't made on time. Mike Hearn, one of the main developers of the Bitcoin architecture alongside the mysterious Nakamoto, has said that any implementation of the concept is at least a decade away because of the need for hardware upgrades on physical goods.

    The functions that advocates say could be automated through the Bitcoin network seem nearly endless, including peer-to-peer investment funds, Kickstarter-like crowdfunding, binding arbitrations, and even non-financial transactions such as naming rights management and encrypted communication. And all could be executed without a cut for intermediaries. Bitcoin partisans, from developers down to rank-and-file users, often seem to revel in the idea that they are threatening the control and profits of Wall Street institutions, who they see as rent-seeking fat cats. If it were limited to the loss of fees on payments and transfers, bitcoin's threat to existing financial institutions would still be substantial. But with a full array of commission-free financial services on the horizon, there is even more reason to take heed.

    Middleton sounds a bit like an 18th-century pirate striking back against the Empire when he declares that "what I'm doing right now is a direct threat to fiat merchant banking." For him, excitement over value fluctuations in the bitcoin currency is missing the point: "It's not a threat as people sit there and ponder whether bitcoin is a bubble or not. But if people go through the protocol and use their imagination, the existing system is threatened."

    However, there is a substantial obstacle to this coming revolution. Despite the emergence in 2013 of entities like Coinbase that have drastically streamlined the process, it is still difficult to exchange bitcoin for national currencies in a quick, reliable manner. It's unclear how Middleton's automated dollar-bitcoin hedging will work without a lightning-quick and reliable dollar-bitcoin exchange platform. So, the true "automation" of bitcoin functions that integrate with the economy as a whole may require a reconciliation with existing trading platforms.

    Dominik Zynis, the Mastercoin spokesperson, sees a gentler, more granular transition. Citing studies on disruptive innovation by the likes of 20th-century economist Joseph Shumpeter, he makes an analogy with the energy industry. "We're still [burning] wood. There's coal-fired power plants. Those didn't go away, [new technology] just got added on top." Usually, of course, that new technology has ultimately proven more powerful, and often enough more profitable. Some financial institutions, Zynis predicts, will be nimble enough to adapt. "If I'm an investment firm, do I see [peer-to-peer finance] as an opportunity, and adopt it, because it's ... more efficient? Or do I not make the investment, and in 10 or 20 years I become irrelevant?"

    So, all bankers and stockbrokers might not go the way of the coal miner, telephone operator, or record store clerk. But the hard lessons of other upturned industries may now be relevant to the financial sector in ways they never were before.

    这种点对点金融和智能合同最具投机性和长期潜在功能的是众所周知的各种形态的“智能资产”。这个理念首先是由计算机科学家和乔治华盛顿大学（George Washington University）的前法学教授尼克•绍博（他经常被人怀疑就是匿名的比特币创始人中本聪）在1997年发表的一篇论文中探讨的。绍博在这篇论文中把智能合同定义为不是由法律、而是由那些将“完全嵌入财产及处置它们的合同条款中的”硬件和软件强制执行的协议。他用简单的自动售货机作为现成的例子。但是将通讯技术和比特币数据区块链结合起来就能开拓更具吸引力的前景——比如，那些能够读取数据区块链的汽车如果没有及时还贷就可以自行停驶。与神秘的中本聪齐名的比特币架构的主要开发者之一麦克•赫恩曾表示，这个理念要得以实现至少还需要十年，因为它需要实体商品进行硬件升级。

    在比特币拥趸们的口中，能通过比特币网络自动实现的金融功能似乎无穷无尽，比如点对点投资基金，类似Kickstarter的众筹，强制性仲裁，甚至包括命名权管理和加密通讯这样跟金融无关的事务。而且所有这些都不再需要假手中介就能完成。对比特币党人来说，不管是开发者还是普通用户，他们似乎常常因为这样一种想法而暗自得意，也就是说，他们正对华尔街那些金融机构的控制权和利润构成威胁。在他们眼里，这些机构就是靠寻租发家的暴发户。哪怕仅限于降低支付和转账费用，比特币对现在这些金融机构的威胁也是巨大的。而如果考虑到不久的将来大量金融服务都将完全无需佣金，那就更有理由要加倍提防了。

    米德尔顿宣称“我现在所做的就是对庞大的商业银行的直接威胁”时，他听起来有点像是个18世纪反抗帝国统治的海盗。对他来说，光知道为了比特币价值的起起伏伏而激动是一种不得要领的表现：“人们光坐着想比特币到底是不是个泡沫时，其实还谈不上什么威胁。但当人们深入了解比特币协议并展开想象时，他们才会意识到现有体系确实是受到了威胁。”

    不过，这场即将到来的革命面前还存在一个巨大的阻碍。尽管2013年已经涌现出Coinbase这样大幅优化比特币交易流程的交易平台，但要快速可靠地用比特币来兑换美元依然很困难。现在还不清楚，如果没有一个快速可靠的美元和比特币交易的平台，米德尔顿所谓的美元和比特币的自动对冲交易怎么才能可行。所以，比特币的各种功能要真正实现“自动化”，并与整体经济相融合，可能还是要与现存各类交易平台整合起来才行。

    在Mastercoin的发言人多米尼克•泽尼斯眼里，即将到来的转变则更温和也更微妙。他根据20世纪经济学家约瑟夫•熊彼得的颠覆式创新理论将现在的情况和能源业做了个类比：“我们还在（烧）柴。烧煤的电厂也很多。这些都没有消失，而（新技术）才刚刚开始冒头。”当然，一般来说，新技术最终会证明自己更有力，也常常更有利可图。泽尼斯预计，有些金融机构会足够灵活，适者生存。“如果我是一家投资公司，我会把（点对点金融）视为一个机遇。我是因为它……更有效率就顺势而为呢，还是我对此根本不做投资，然后过了10到20年等着被市场淘汰呢？”

    所以说，所有银行家和股票经纪人可能都不会走煤矿工人、电话接线员或唱片店店员的老路。但是，其他被颠覆行业的惨痛教训现在可能会以前所未有的方式被金融机构所吸取。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远