In January 1986, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Byron Wien published a list of 10 "surprises" for the upcoming year. He is now vice chairman of The Blackstone Group's (BX) advisory practice, but is still making predictions.

    For Wien,"surprises" are events that the average investor would only assign a one-out-of-three chance of taking place, but which he believes are "probable" (i.e., having a better than 50% likelihood of happening). What follows is his list of surprises for 2014.

    1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) approaches a 20% total return by year end.

    2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.

    3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.

    4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don't matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population, and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.

    5. China's Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.

    6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.

    7. In spite of increased U.S. production, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.

    8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.

    9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.

    1986年1月，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）投资策略分析师拜伦•维恩提出了来年的十大“意外”事件。现在，虽然已经成为黑石集团（Blackstone Group）咨询业务副董事长，他依然在坚持进行这样的预测。

    维恩对“意外”事件的定义是，普通投资者认为它们发生的可能性只有三分之一，而他相信这些事件很有可能出现（也就是说，可能性超过50%）。下面就是他列出的2014年十大“意外”事件。

    1. 套用狄更斯的说法，这是最好的市场，也是最坏的市场。最坏的局面将首先出现——地缘政治问题和极度乐观情绪将让美国市场出现10%以上的大幅度回调。随后将是最好的局面，美国市场将创下新高。到年底，标普500指数（Standard & Poor's 500）的总回报率将达到20%。

    2. 美国经济将最终走出低谷。增长率将超过3%，失业率将向6%滑落。实际情况将表明，美联储（Fed）削减资产购买规模无碍大局。

    3. 美国经济强于欧洲，日本将提高美元汇率。欧元/美元汇率将跌至1.25以下，美元/日元汇率将达到120。

    4. 迪克•切尼说出现赤字没有关系。各国领导人中只有安倍晋三认识到切尼是对的。安倍将继续积极进行财政和货币扩张，年初日经225指数（Nikkei 225）将升至18000点。但销售税的增长、人口老龄化以及劳动力不断减少最终将带来不利影响，下半年日本市场将暴跌（20%）。

    5. 三中全会提出中国要向内需型经济转变，同时降低对投资的依赖，这将使2014年中国经济增长率降至6%。A股市场在这一年的表现将再次让人感到失望。新一届领导班子会强调，他们的方针政策最符合中国的长远利益。

    6. 实际情况将继续表明，新兴市场投资变化无常。在墨西哥和韩国，强有力的政府和增长性政策将带动当地股市大幅上涨，但其他新兴市场将无法赶上墨西哥和韩国的脚步。

    7. 尽管美国石油产量上升，西德克萨斯中质原油（West Texas Intermediate）的价格仍将超过110美元。和发达国家保守并且下降的石油消费量相比，发展中经济体的需求所产生的影响将继续超过前者。

    8. 生活水平提高以及新兴市场更多地以消费者为导向将扭转农产品价格下跌的局面。玉米、小麦和大豆的价格将分别达到5.25美元/蒲式耳、7.50美元/蒲式耳和16.00美元/蒲式耳。

    9. 美国经济表现强劲，再加上通胀水平有所提高，将使美国10年期国债收益率升至4.0%。短期利率将保持在零点附近。中期收益率上升将给房地产行业带来不利影响，但对美元来说是个有利因素。

    10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished, and younger people begin signing up. Obama's approval rating rises, and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

    Every year there are always a few surprises that do not make the Top 10 either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable."

    Also rans:

    • Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity, and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.

    • In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold's position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin's acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.

    • Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as "Castro convertibles."

    • Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.

    10. 《平价医保法》（Affordable Care Act）的处境将发生明显改观。平价医保交易网站无法登录的现象将大幅减少，年轻人将开始在这个网站上注册。奥巴马的支持率将上升。在11月份的中期选举中，民主党不仅将控制参议院，在众议院的席位甚至也会增加。

    每年都会有一些“意外”事件未能跻身前十，这要么是因为我觉得它们没有十大“意外”事件重要，要么是因为我不太确信它们是不是“很有可能”出现。

    2014年，这样的“准意外”事件包括：

    • 综合考虑智商、极端性、名声和狡猾程度，泰德•克鲁兹将在共和党2016年总统候选人的争夺中遥遥领先。克里斯•克里斯蒂以及温和派人士的支持率将下滑，原因是保守的财政和社会政策越来越有市场。

    • 比特币的价格在两年半时间里从25美元增至975美元。比特币供应量达到2100万枚，流通中的比特币有1150万枚。比特币不能像黄金那样发挥保值作用。2014年期间，人们对比特币的接受程度将急剧下降，原因是投资者意识到比特币无法在金融交易中充当抵押品，而且它发挥作用的场合主要是那些非法商业勾当，在这种情况下不暴露身份很重要。

    • 奥巴马总统顶住了古巴流亡人士的反对，开始和古巴政府就启动贸易和建立外交关系进行磋商。美国方面将提议减少对古巴的制裁，并以债券形式为古巴提供有限的财政援助。人们很快就开始把这些债券称为“卡斯特罗可转债”。

    • 希拉里•克林顿决定不参加2016年总统大选。她表示，自己在克林顿基金会的各项非营利活动中的工作很重要而且尚未结束。她明确指出，自己做出这样的决定并不是出于健康方面的考虑。民主党内对总统候选人的争夺将陷入一片混乱。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie