Up through the 1960s, meteorologists forecast the weather by measuring the present state of the atmosphere and extrapolating forward. They'd throw some data into a computer simulation -- wind direction, barometric pressure, moisture in the air, temperature -- and out would come a prediction of the weather a week or two hence. Most often, it was wrong. As an MIT researcher named Edward Lorenz discovered, the tiniest errors in measuring the atmosphere soon doubled in magnitude, and doubled again, turning the best predictive modeling into a demonstration of chaos. The weather doesn't follow straight lines. Neither does business. Or the economy. Or technological innovation. All of which would suggest that trying to predict what's going to happen across a span of industries in 2014 is a fool's errand. We thought we'd try anyway. For our first foray into prophecy, however, we also tried to think nonlinearly -- dancing past the obvious (when we could) and asking our expert sources to do the same. What follows is a look into the hive mind of Fortune as we ponder the coming year. For each prediction, we've given our best guess as to the probability, in percentage terms, that it will come true by Dec. 31. The only thing we're quite sure of? It's more fun than predicting the weather.

    20世纪60年代，气象学家通过测量大气层现状，并向前外推的方式预测天气。他们往往向一个计算机模拟扔一些数据，比如风向、气压、空气水分和温度，一两周后的天气预测值j就会由此出炉。这些预测大多是错的。正如麻省理工学院(MIT)一位名叫爱德华•罗伦兹的研究人员所发现的那样，测量大气层时最微小的错误很快就翻倍放大，随后再次翻番，最终使得这一最佳预测模型陷入混乱。天气的演变轨迹并非直线，企业、经济或技术创新亦是如此。所有这些都表明，预测各个行业2014年的动态绝对是徒劳无功的苦差事。但我们还是想试一试。不过，首次涉足预言领域的我们也尝试着采用非线性思考方式，即尽量回避显而易见的趋势，同时要求我们的专家团队也这样做。下面这些预测是《财富》同仁在思考来年大势时展现的集体心智。我们对每项预测都以百分比的形式，给出了它在2014年12月31日前成为现实的概率。我们唯一有把握的事情就是，这肯定比预测天气有趣得多。

    Elon Musk will have a change of heart

    After an early 2014 white paper shows major challenges for the Hyperloop, Elon Musk lobbies his fellow billionaires to join him in investing in high-speed rail.

    Odds: 10%.

    埃隆•穆斯克改弦更张

    一份发布于2014年初的白皮书显示，“超回路列车”(Hyperloop)面临重重挑战。埃隆•穆斯克随后开始游说其他亿万富豪，希望他们加入这种高速铁路的投资阵营。

    概率：10%。

    Another snooping scandal will break

    Last year the NSA leaks were the most followed news story -- more Americans tracked our government's efforts to track us than watched or read about the Boston bombing. According to Pew, 70% of us believe the government uses information gleaned from our telephone and Internet use for purposes other than investigating terrorism. Are more snooping revelations on the way? Hmm. The Guardian says it has published perhaps 1% of the files given to it by Edward Snowden.

    Odds: 36%.

    另一桩窥探丑闻将曝光

    美国国家安全局(NSA)监控计划被曝光是去年最受关注的新闻——追踪政府窥探行动的美国人比观看或阅读波士顿爆炸案的人还要多。来自皮尤调查中心(Pew)的数据显示，70%的美国人认为政府搜集公民的电话和互联网使用信息并不是为了调查恐怖主义。更多的窥探丑闻正在蓄势待发？有可能。《卫报》(The Guardian)说，它刊发的内容或许只占爱德华•斯诺登所提供文档的1%。

    概率：36%。

    Twitter will close below its IPO price

    In the coming year the Blue Bird of Chattiness falls to earth -- as do the valuations of other social-media giants. (For more, see "Tech's Smart Money Will Exit.")

    Odds: 56%.

    Twitter将跌破发行价

    未来一年，这只叽叽喳喳的蓝鸟将落到地面，其他社交媒体巨头的估值也将如此。

    概率：56%。

    Democrats will hold the senate

    An improving economy -- scratch this if there's a banking crisis (see "Mis-tapering") -- puts control of the Senate out of reach for the GOP. Republicans have to net six seats to retake the Senate in 2014, and they've got pickup opportunities in seven states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. But to pull off the sweep, the party needs things to be going very badly next fall. Chances are, they won't be.

    Odds: 71%.

    民主党依然是参议院多数党

    不断改善的经济形势——前提是不会爆发另一波银行危机——使得共和党执掌参议院的希望变得非常渺茫。2014年，共和党必须从民主党手中抢下6个席位，才能重新夺回参议院。米特•罗姆尼2012年大选期间赢得的7个州出现了这样的机会。但要想全部拿下，共和党只能寄望经济局势在明年秋天变得异常糟糕。这一幕恐怕不会出现。

    概率：71%。

    Mark Hurd will ride again

    Larry Ellison turns 70 in 2014, and he's riding high. His America's Cup team pulled off a miraculous defense in San Francisco Bay. His real estate projects (from Malibu, Fla., to Lanai, Hawaii) make him the most interesting landowner since Ted Turner. Yet Ellison's company, software maker Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500), is stuck in neutral, losing ground to upstarts like Salesforce.com (CRM) and Workday (WDAY). It's a perfect time for Ellison to hand the CEO reins to his co-president, Mark Hurd, whose scandalous departure from HP (HPQ, Fortune 500) three years ago is all but forgotten in the land of short-term memory, Silicon Valley.

    Odds: 81%.

    马克•赫德重出江湖

    2014年，迎来70岁生日的拉里•埃里森依然意气风发。他的美洲杯(America's Cup)帆船队奇迹般地在旧金山湾守住了冠军。在佛罗里达州马里布和夏威夷拉奈岛等地投资的房地产项目使他成为自特德•特纳以来最有意思的地主。然而，埃里森执掌的软件制造商甲骨文公司(Oracle)却表现平庸，在Salesforce.com和Workday等后起之秀面前节节败退。于埃里森而言，这是把CEO权杖交给联席总裁马克•赫德的绝佳时机。虽然赫德在3年前因卷入丑闻离开惠普公司(HP)，但在以记性差著称的硅谷，人们恐怕早就忘了那档子事了。

    概率：81%。

    The next bubbles

    Art

    Plenty of air was pumped into the already tumescent market for fine art last year. First a painting (or one set of three) by Francis Bacon sold for $142.8 million, the most ever paid for a work at auction and a 165% spike in price from when the last Bacon triptych sold, in 2008. Then a dog sculpture by Jeff Koons fetched $58 million, the most ever paid for a work by a living artist. That this happened on the same night, in the same Christie's auction, could mean one of two things: rampant speculation portending the end of a bubble as everyone scrambles to sell, or just plain rampant speculation. Odds that the art market collapses this year? Only slight. Too many billionaires these days need to fill too many walls: 14%

    Student Loans

    There is an estimated $150 billion in outstanding student loans weighing down most recent and not-so-recent college graduates. For millions of young Americans, it's a genuine problem. But is it a bubble? Not really -- at least by the standards of history. Look back to 2006 and 2007, when banks traded nearly $135 billion worth of Sallie Mae's student-loan asset-backed securities (known as SLABS). Today many banks are out of the student-loan biz altogether, and just $1.1 billion in SLAB trading makes waves in the papers -- barely a ripple compared with far frothier times. Still, count on many in the media (and pretend media) to call it that. Odds that Aaron Sorkin will write it into the plot of The Newsroom:75%

    Conferences

    First thing first: There is a conference named BubbleConf; it is for entrepreneurs, but more telling, it was born out of its founders' need to simply "organize a conference." The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the convention and event industry, which already generates an estimated $80 billion a year, to expand by 44% over the next decade --Fortune, of course, has a few conferences of its own. But nothing captures the conference proliferation quite like the American Planning Association's 2014 gathering in Atlanta -- which, literally, is a conference for planning more conferences. What are the odds that Bravo will develop a reality show around the people at the conference of conferences? A near-sure thing: 97%.

    下一个泡沫

    艺术品

    去年，本已有些膨胀的艺术品市场又被泵入大量空气。首先，弗朗西斯•培根的一幅画作（或者说一幅三联画）以1.428亿美元售出，创下了有史以来单幅作品的拍卖新纪录，足足比2008年售出的另一幅出自培根之手的三联画高出了165%。接着，杰夫•昆斯的一尊狗雕塑作品创下了在世艺术家作品的最高拍卖价：5,800万美元。这两起拍卖发生在佳士得拍卖行(Christie)举办的同一场晚间拍卖会上，它或许意味着以下两件事之一：这种大肆炒作预示着各路收藏家即将争相出售艺术品，泡沫破灭指日可待；抑或，这就是大肆炒作而已。艺术品市场今年崩盘的几率微乎其微。这年头，有太多的亿万富豪需要填充太多的墙壁。概率：14%

    学生贷款

    目前尚未偿还的学生贷款余额预计高达1,500亿美元，如此巨款犹如千钧重担，压得应届和毕业已经若干年的往届大学毕业生苦不堪言。于数百万美国年轻人而言，这是一个真真切切的问题。但它是一个泡沫吗？不完全是——这至少是按历史标准评判的结论。回望2006年和2007年，学生贷款市场协会(Sallie Mae，又称萨利美)发行，由各大银行交易的学生贷款支持证券( SLABS)价值近1,350亿美元。如今，许多银行已经彻底放弃了学生贷款业务，目前的SLABS交易额仅为11亿美元。这个数据已经在报端引发热议——相较于泡沫泛滥的时期，它几乎连一个涟漪都算不上。尽管如此，估计会有许多媒体人（和一些自诩的媒体人）把它称为泡沫。亚伦•索尔金将其写入《新闻编辑室》(The Newsroom)剧本的几率为：75%。

    会议

    首先要说明的是，有一个会议就叫“泡沫会议”(BubbleConf)。它的受众群体是企业家，但更能说明问题的是，它之所以诞生，是因为其创始人需要简单地“组织一场会议”。据美国劳工统计局（the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics）预计，年营收额已经高达大约800亿美元的会议及会展业将在未来10年扩张44%（当然，《财富》自己也主办好几场会议）。但这股会议浪潮的最佳代言人莫过于美国规划协会(American Planning Association)将于2014年在亚特兰大举办的集会——从字面上看，这是一场旨在规划更多会议的会议。精彩电视台(Bravo)是否将围绕这场会议之会议的出席者开发一个真人秀节目？几乎确凿无疑：97%。

    The Arctic Circle will be a hotspot

    An eighth of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural-gas reserves are locked beneath it. Six nations claim slices of this polar pie. Two of the biggest companies in the world, Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), are spending billions to probe its seabed. Chances that a geopolitical spark will catch fire in one of the most frigid spots on earth? 8%.

    北极圈成为热点地区

    北极圈拥有世界上八分之一未被探明的原油和30%的天然气储量。6个国家声称拥有这里的若干片区域。全球最大的两家公司埃克森美孚( Exxon Mobil)和荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)正在斥资数十亿美元勘探北极海床。在这块地球上最寒冷的地区之一，地缘政治擦枪走火的几率有多高？ 8%。

    Fuel-cell cars will hit the show room floor

    The first commercial fuel-cell vehicle will be launched in the U.S. this spring by Hyundai: a Tucson compact crossover powered by hydrogen that emits only water from its tailpipe. The fuel-cell Tucson (above) has a range of 300 miles, can be refueled in a matter of minutes, and will lease for $499 a month -- though at first only in Southern California because of the limited hydrogen infrastructure nationwide. Toyota (TM) will be next (in late 2014). Honda (HMC) will follow suit in 2015. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500)has racked up 3 million test miles with a fleet of 119 Chevrolet Equinox fuel-cell crossovers but has no plans to market one. Count on new CEO Mary Barra to feel the hydrogen heat.

    Odds: 98% - 100%.

    燃料电池轿车将亮相汽车展

    现代公司( Hyundai)将在今年春天推出美国第一辆商用燃料电池汽车：氢气驱动，排气管只排放水的Tucson紧凑型跨界车。Tucson燃料电池汽车（见上图）一次性行驶里程为300英里，可在几分钟内完成加气，将以每月499美元的价格对外出租——但由于全美的氢气基础设施有限，这项政策最初只面向南加州地区。2014年年底，丰田( Toyota )将成为第二家推出这类轿车的公司。本田汽车(Honda)也将于2015年跟进。通用汽车(General Motors)已经动用119辆雪佛兰Equinox燃料电池跨界车累计测试了300万英里，但目前还不打算让它正式上市。预计新任CEO玛丽•芭拉也会感受到氢气散发的热度。

    概率: 98% - 100%。

    The next Brooklyns ... and Detroits

    The American geography of prosperity has been driven by two big narratives in the past few years. On the one hand, there's Detroit, with its $18 billion in debt, pension mess, and population loss. On the other, there's Brooklyn, with its rocketing real estate prices, hip-luxe condos, and freshly foraged food stores. But what's next for this Tale of Two Cities muni-drama? Our bets for 2014's breakout and breakdown towns.

    New Brooklyns

    Cleveland.The city (above) is in the midst of a downtown revival that has seen not one, not two, but three Williamsburg-esque neighborhoods emerge: Tremont, Ohio City, and Gordon Square. Odds: 63%

    Louisville.A thriving indie music scene, food trucks galore, and a monthly flea market (that seems "like Etsy came to life," according to Yelp) now fill this blue dot in a red state. Odds: 91%

    Detroit.College-educated settlers under 35 are drawn to sub-$1,000 rents and the chance to be pioneers. A telltale sign of change: NO HIPSTER graffiti tags showing up around town. Odds: 39%

    Runners-up: Chattanooga; Newark

    New Detroits

    Woonsocket, R.I.The onetime prominent textile hub fell victim to deindustrialization, then the recession, then severe cuts from state aid. Unemployment is now 10%. Odds: 38%

    Puerto Rico.The public debt of this commonwealth is $70 billion, unemployment (at 14.7%) is higher than in any U.S. state, and labor force participation (at 41%) is the lowest.Odds: 54%

    Fresno.The central California agricultural hub has little cash on hand, an ongoing gang issue, and a five-year foreclosure rate of 94.5 per 1,000 households, according to Metrostudy. Odds: 86%

    Runners-up: Atlantic City; Gary, Ind.

    下一个布鲁克林和底特律

    过去几年，受两个宏大故事的驱动，繁荣因地区而异的现象备受美国各界关注。其一是底特律，这座城市背负180亿美元债务，养老金成为烂摊子，人口不断流失。其二是布鲁克林，房产价格飙升，豪华公寓林立，店铺里摆满了新鲜上市的食品。但是，这样的“双城记”还将在哪里上演？我们认为，下面这几个城市将在2014年崛起或衰落：

    新布鲁克林

    克利夫兰。这座城市（见上图）的市中心正在复兴，涌现出的威廉斯堡式街区不是一个，两个，而是三个，即：特里蒙特、俄亥俄城和戈登广场。概率: 63%

    路易斯维尔。蓬勃发展的独立音乐节，随处可见的快餐车，每月一次的跳蚤市场（点评网站Yelp评论说，这个市场似乎就像是“网络集市Etsy来到人间”），让路易斯维尔成为这个红州中一个炫目的蓝点（红州与蓝州为美国选举政治术语。红州较支持共和党，蓝州较支持民主党——译注）。概率: 91%

    底特律。低于1,000美元的房租吸引来了不少受过大学教育的35岁以下定居者，他们很有可能成为开拓者。一个耐人寻味的变化迹象是：城里现在已经看不到颓废的涂鸦作品。概率: 39%

    第二梯队：查塔努加，纽瓦克

    新底特律

    罗德岛索基特。这个显赫一时的纺织中心不幸沦为去工业化的牺牲品。随后，经济衰退和州政府援助的大幅削减，进一步加快了它的衰退步伐。现在的失业率是10％。概率: 38%

    波多黎各。这个自治邦的公共债务高达700亿美元，失业率（14.7%）比美国任何州都要高，劳动力参与率（41%）为各州最低。概率: 54%

    弗雷斯诺。这个位于加州中部的农业中心手头上已经没有多少现金，同时还深受持续不断的帮派问题困扰。另据都市研究( Metrostudy)提供的数据，每千户家庭就有94.5户丧失了房屋赎回权。概率: 86%

    第二梯队：大西洋城，印第安纳州加里市。

    The federal minimum wage will rise 39%

    Two decades after the Living Wage movement began in Baltimore (when local homeless shelters began filling with residents who had full-time jobs), popular support for a hefty increase in the minimum wage resurges. States are already taking action (see upcoming map). Odds that the federal minimum wage is increased to $10.10/hour, from the current $7.25: 48%.

    联邦最低工资将上涨39％

    20年前，最低生活工资(Living Wage)运动在巴尔的摩爆发，许多拥有全职工作的居民纷纷涌入当地的无家可归者收容所。2014年，这场运动再起波澜，公众开始强烈呼吁政府大幅提升最低工资标准。一些州已经开始采取行动（见即将出现的分布图）。联邦最低时薪工资从目前7.25美元提高至10.10美元的概率为：48%。

    Rand Paul will support ending ban on pot

    The Kentucky senator has already pushed to legalize industrial hemp as a jobs boon back home. In 2014, Paul goes much further, saying the drug should be taxed and regulated. It's a dicey proposition for the likely 2016 presidential aspirant. Evangelicals in early Republican primary states like Iowa won't like the stance, but millennial voters strongly support legalization.

    Odds: 52%.

    兰德•保罗将支持解除大麻禁令

    为了给家乡父老创造工作机会，这位肯塔基州参议员已经在竭力推动工业用大麻合法化。2014年，保罗更进一步，声称政府应该对大麻征税，同时对它实行监管。对这位有可能参加2016年总统大选的政治家来说，这项提议无疑是个险招。在一些率先进行共和党初选的州（比如爱荷华州），福音派信徒肯定不喜欢这样的立场，但千禧一代选民则强烈支持大麻合法化。

    概率: 52%。

    States that will legalize same-sex marriage

    States are busy rewriting the rules when it comes to same-sex marriage, raising the minimum wage, and marijuana use. Here are our predictions on where the laws of the land will change by the end of 2014.

    同性婚姻合法化的州

    许多州正忙于修订涉及同性婚姻、最低工资标准和大麻使用的规则。我们预测，到2014年年底，以下这些州将修改相关法律。

    States that will raise the minimum wage.

    将提高最低工资的州。

    States that will legalize marijuana.

    大麻合法化的州。

    Anheuser-Busch InBev will buy Guinness

    In 2013 the Belgium-based, Brazilian-managed, biggest beer company in the world bought up Grupo Modelo, adding Corona to its portfolio of globally recognized brews such as Budweiser, Becks, and Stella Artois. What next? Analysts won't go on record speculating, but, says one, "the big companies are so much bigger than the small ones that anything not owned by ABI, SAB, or Heineken is pretty much up for grabs." So why Guinness? It may be the most iconic brand of those not owned by one of the big three. Guinness's owner, Diageo, which focuses mostly on spirits, has said it wants to keep the popular stout. But if the price is right, expect Diageo to sell. ABI (BUD) CEO Carlos Brito is famously cagey about M&A and insists that his company will focus on the brands it already has -- but he said the same thing right before he moved on Corona.

    Odds: 24%.

    百威英博将收购吉尼斯

    2013年，这家总部位于比利时、由巴西人执掌的全球最大啤酒公司收购了莫德洛集团(Grupo Modelo)，科罗娜( Corona)由此成为百威英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev )旗下全球知名啤酒品牌系列【包括百威(Budweiser)、贝克(Becks)和时代(Stella Artois)】的新成员。谁又将成为它的下一个目标呢？许多分析师不愿做出记录在案的猜测，但有一位分析师表示，“与百威英博、南非酿酒集团(SAB)或喜力公司(Heineken)相比，目前还没有被它们纳入囊中的公司太小了，几乎都是这几家行业巨头嘴边的猎物。”那么，为什么要收购吉尼斯(Guinness)？在那些还不属于三巨头的啤酒品牌中，吉尼斯或许是最具代表性的一家。尽管吉尼斯的所有者、专注于烈性酒业务的帝亚吉欧酒业集团(Diageo)表示有意继续持有这一烈性啤酒品牌，但只要价格合适，估计帝亚吉欧还是会愿意出售的。对并购问题向来守口如瓶的百威英博CEO卡洛斯•布里托坚称，他的公司将全身心地经营已经拥有的品牌，但在百威英博准备吞下科罗娜之前，他也说过类似的话。

    概率: 24%。

    Google will develop killer app for the soul

    Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) releases a "quantified self" app for Glass that tracks respiration, eye movement, and other data to determine your emotional well-being. With a Google+ plug-in, you can share results with your friends -- so they can send supportive messages on tough days.

    Odds: 76%.

    谷歌将开发针对灵魂的杀手级应用

    谷歌公司(Google)将发布一款“量化自我”的谷歌眼镜应用，它能够追踪呼吸、眼球运动和其他数据，以确定你的情感健康指数。在Google+插件的帮助下，你可以把这些结果分享给朋友，这样他们就可以在你情绪低落的时候为你加油鼓劲。

    概率: 76%。

    Tech's smart money will exit

    Anyone who has seen Silicon Valley's boom-bust cycles before knows there's a bust on the way. When pre-revenue Snapchat (see our feature story) turns down a multibillion-dollar buyout offer from Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), when Twitter (TWTR) and LinkedIn(LNKD) trade for many multiples of their relatively puny sales, when Salesforce.com mimics Oracle by closing down San Francisco streets for its annual user conference, you know the peak isn't far away. This is when savvy investors run in the opposite direction.

    Odds: 58%.

    高科技领域的“聪明钱”将退出市场

    凡是目睹过硅谷兴衰周期的人都知道，萧条即将来临。当没有任何收入的Snapchat拒绝Facebook公司开出的数十亿美元报价，当Twitter和商务社交网站LinkedIn的交易价数倍于它们各自微不足道的营收额，当Salesforce.com效仿甲骨文公司为迎接年度用户大会而大张旗鼓地封闭旧金山数个街区的时候，人们就该明白，泡沫的破灭之日已经不远了。精明的投资者往往会在这个时候一窝蜂地跑向相反的方向。

    概率: 58%。

    BMW will outcool Tesla

    While Tesla (TSLA) struggles with battery fires in the Model S and the delayed launch of the Model X SUV, BMW will introduce a pair of vehicles that knock the socks off the stock-options set -- the all-electric i3 (above), a practical sedan with BMW panache, and the exotic i8, a nearly $140,000 plug-in hybrid with racecar performance.

    Odds: 50%.

    宝马的风头将压过特斯拉

    特斯拉汽车公司(Tesla)因S型轿车电池起火、X型SUV延迟推出等事件陷入窘境；宝马公司(BMW)将推出两款估计会让那些手握特斯拉公司期权的家伙大惊失色的轿车：实用而不失宝马车派头的全电动i3轿车（见上图），以及颇为新奇的i8轿车——这款插电式混合动力车售价近14万美元，性能完全可以跟轿车相媲美。

    概率: 50%。

    AT&T will merge with Vodafone

    Rumors have been swirling for a decade about a possible merger between American telecom giant AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and its British counterpart Vodafone (VOD). But while a 2004 deal fell apart, speculation intensified again this past September after Vodafone agreed to sell its 45% stake in Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) back to that company. (Many view that as a needed step before Vodafone can pursue a deal with AT&T, the second-largest telecom firm in the U.S. after Verizon.) AT&T has expressed interest in European acquisitions in 2014 and is quietly eyeing Vodafone, according to news reports, though neither company will confirm it. Further consolidation in the telecom industry -- as with reports that Sprint (S, Fortune 500) is pursuing T-Mobile (TMUS) -- could make a deal more likely.

    Odds: 75%.

    AT＆T将与沃达丰合并

    关于美国电信巨头AT＆T有可能与英国沃达丰公司( Vodafone)合并的谣言已经流传了10年左右。尽管2004年的交易以失败告终，但今年9月份，在沃达丰同意将其持有威瑞森( Verizon)45%的股权回售给这家公司（许多人认为这是沃达丰在寻求与AT＆T合并交易前必须完成的步骤之一，AT＆T是仅次于威瑞森的美国第二大电信公司）之后，这种传言再次甚嚣尘上。据说AT＆T有意在2014年收购欧洲的电信公司，并且悄悄地盯上了沃达丰，但这两家公司还没有确认这个消息。电信业的进一步兼并整合——有报道称斯普林特公司(Sprint )正在追逐德国电信公司(T-Mobile)——使得这桩合并交易变得更加可能。

    概率: 75%。

    Investor activism will intensify

    Activist investors in 2013 stormed the gates of even the most valuable companies -- Apple(AAPL, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT,Fortune 500) -- and they're likely to grow still bolder in 2014. That's because activists far outperformed the S&P (earning 25%, vs. 19% through 2013's first three quarters, says Hedge Fund Research), attracting more billions to wield. But after so much activity, who's left to go after? Consider four possibilities:

    Nelson Peltz will take on Wal-Mart.Peltz likes moving in on famous consumer stocks (H.J. Heinz, Kraft Foods, PepsiCo) and wouldn't be intimidated by even the world's largest retailer. Wal-Mart's (WMT, Fortune 500) share price suggests lowered investor expectations, and Peltz might see an opening when Doug McMillon takes over as CEO in February. Odds: 20%

    Bill Ackman will take on Caterpillar.Ackman has drawn attention for investments that have failed (J.C. Penney, Target) or been controversial (Herbalife), but he's done well by shaking up big B2B outfits like Canadian Pacific Railway. Cat's (CAT, Fortune 500)stock, the Dow's best performer in 2010, has been among its weakest and most heavily shorted in 2013. Odds: 20%

    Dan Loeb will take on Cisco.Loeb isn't afraid of technology; he famously rattled Yahoo's cage and made $1 billion. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) has been performing excellently, but the stock has lagged in large part because investors worry the good news can't last. CEO John Chambers has said he plans to step down in one to three years. Odds: 15%

    Carl Icahn will take on Exxon Mobil.Icahn is on a roll with energy companies. He got CVR Energy to break itself up and recently persuaded Transocean to pay a special dividend and cut costs. Yes, Warren Buffett recently invested in Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) -- but famed short-seller Jim Chanos is betting against it. The share price reflects shrinking profit expectations. Odds: 10%.

    投资者维权行动将加剧

    2013年，维权投资者攻破了许多上市公司的大门，哪怕苹果(Apple)、宝洁(Procter & Gamble)和微软( Microsoft)这类最有价值的公司也未能幸免。2014年，他们很可能变得更加大胆。这是因为维权投资者的业绩远远超过了标准普尔指数(S&P)——根据对冲基金研究公司(Hedge Fund Research)提供的数据，在2013年前3个季度，这些投资者的收益率高达25%，完胜标准普尔指数（19%）——从而又吸引了数十亿美元。但在这么多维权活动之后，哪些公司将成为下一个目标呢？不妨考虑以下4种可能性：

    纳尔逊•佩尔茨将向沃尔玛发难。佩尔茨向来喜欢跟著名的消费类股票【亨氏(H.J. Heinz)、卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)和百事( PepsiCo)】较劲，当然也不会被全球最大的零售商吓倒。沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)目前的股价显示投资者期望值降低，佩尔茨或许认为一个良机将出现在董明伦2月份接任CEO的时候。概率: 20%

    比尔•阿克曼将向卡特彼勒发难。阿克曼因一些失败【彭尼公司(J.C. Penney)和塔吉特百货(Target)】或有争议的投资【康宝莱(Herbalife)】而受到关注，但他也通过重组加拿大太平洋铁路公司( Canadian Pacific Railway)等B2B企业获得了良好的投资回报。卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）曾经是2010年道琼斯指数表现最好的个股，但在2013年，这家公司成为表现最差、被大量卖空的股票之一。概率: 20%

    丹•勒布将瞄上思科公司。勒布从来不怵高科技公司；他最出名的战役就是通过震醒昏昏欲睡的雅虎公司(Yahoo)赚得了10亿美元收益。思科公司(Cisco)的业绩一直非常出色，但股票却表现乏力，主要原因是投资者担心好消息不能持续下去。思科公司CEO约翰•钱伯斯曾表示，他计划在一至三年内下台。概率: 15%

    卡尔•伊坎将瞄上埃克森美孚。伊坎喜欢跟能源类公司较劲。他曾胁迫CVR能源公司(CVR Energy)拆分，最近还说服越洋公司(Transocean)派发特别股息并削减成本。没错，沃伦•巴菲特最近开始投资埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)，但著名的卖空者吉姆•查诺斯也正在做空这家公司。目前的股价显示，投资者看跌这家公司的利润预期。 概率: 10%。

    Apple will shoot another blank

    The iWorld expects -- nay, demands -- an iTV, an iWatch, an iSomething, dammit, from Apple this year. Don't bet on it. Nor will Apple's failure to deliver something amazing under Tim Cook reflect the CEO's inability to conjure the magic of his predecessor, Steve Jobs. Those who will claim this (reporters, investors, fanboys) forget that six years separated the release of the iPod and the iPhone. It has been only three years since Apple's last great hit, the iPad. Apple's next new thing will come ... when Apple is good and ready.

    Odds: 60%.

    苹果公司依然不会发布新产品

    i世界期待（不，应该说要求）苹果公司今年推出苹果电视(iTV)、苹果手表(iWatch)或其他什么i字打头全新产品。不过，大家还是别指望了。虽然蒂姆•库克领导的苹果公司一直未能推出具有突破性意义的新产品，但这并不意味着这位CEO不具备其前任史蒂夫•乔布斯的魔力。那些喜欢发表这类看法的记者、投资者和果粉们恐怕忘记了一个事实：iPod和iPhone的推出时间间隔了6年之久。而苹果上一款杰作iPad的上市时间距离现在仅仅3年而已。苹果的下一个全新产品将出现在……这家公司完全准备好的时候。

    概率: 60%

    话说回来，无论苹果发布什么产品（或不发布任何产品），你肯定得买一条新的电源线。

    Obamacare cost will explode

    After months of hemming and hawing, the Obama administration admits that the long-term cost of the Affordable Care Act will be twice what was originally predicted. By this fall the Congressional Budget Office will double its estimates for the annualized cost of federal spending on Obamacare in 2023, from $134 billion to around $270 billion. The reasons for the jump? First, the program will fail to attract a sufficient number of young, healthy workers to sustain it on an actuarial basis -- a concern raised by the American Academy of Actuaries. Second, companies in low-wage industries from mining to retail will flee the health care business. Many more than expected will drop their plans, pushing droves of workers into the Obamacare exchanges.

    Odds: 70%.

    奥巴马医改计划的成本将爆炸性增长

    支支吾吾了几个月后，奥巴马政府终于承认，《可负担医疗法案》( Affordable Care Act)的长期成本将是最初预测的两倍。至今年秋天，国会预算办公室将根据奥巴马医改计划，把2023年按年度计算的联邦开支预测值翻一番，从1,340亿美元上调至2,700亿美元。医保开支为什么会骤增？其一，这项计划将无法吸引到足够多青壮工人的参与，从精算的角度看难以延续——美国精算学会(American Academy of Actuaries)对此表示关切。其次，采矿和零售等低工资行业的公司将逃离医保业务。比预期更多的公司将放弃医保计划，从而促使工人成群结队地进入根据奥巴马医保计划设立的医保交易市场。

    概率: 70%。

    Sound sharing will become as popular as photo sharing

    Already, 11 hours of sound are uploaded per minute, and it's much more than music. As for who will be the YouTube of this movement, our Magic Eight Ball has little doubt: the audio platform SoundCloud, which boasts 250 million active listeners around the world, a 25% jump since July.

    Odds: 100%.

    声音共享将变得跟照片共享一样流行

    每分钟上传至网络的音频内容已经高达11小时，数量远高于音乐。在我们看来，这场运动中YouTube式的公司无疑是SoundCloud公司。这个音频平台目前在全球各地拥有大约2.5亿活跃的听众，用户数量自7月份以来猛增了25%。

    概率: 100%。

    Freework will reign

    In 2014 there's a very good chance most of us will work for tech companies for nothing. We'll log traffic accidents on Google-owned Waze, enter our sleep patterns on our Jawbone Ups, and tell OpenTable (OPEN) just how much we hated the swordfish at St. Vincent. We'll do it with the same fervor we reserve for our Candy Crush habit.

    Odds: 62%.

    义务劳动盛行一时

    2014年，我们大多数人很可能会为高科技公司免费工作。我们将在隶属于谷歌的在线地图 Waze记录交通事故，给智能手环Jawbone Ups输入我们的睡眠模式，告诉订餐平台OpenTable我们有多么讨厌圣文森餐厅( St. Vincent)的箭鱼。我们做这些事情的热情将一点都不亚于玩《糖果粉碎传奇》(Candy Crush)的习惯。

    概率: 62%。

    Same-day delivery will go standard

    Customers shouldn't expect their packages by drone anytime soon. But as Amazon(AMZN, Fortune 500), eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500), and others push ahead with faster delivery, $5-plus same-day service will become reality for most U.S. shoppers. To wit, eBay Now already approaches one-hour deliveries in five locales (Chicago, Dallas, New York City, San Francisco, and San Jose). Here, what will happen in 2014:

    eBay Now expands to 25 cities: 84%

    Amazon partners with Uber: 52%

    Wal-mart hires off-duty cashiers to drive purchases to customer doors: 10%.

    同日送达将成为网购业标准

    客户不要指望自己的包裹很快就会由无人机运送至家门口。但随着亚马逊(Amazon)、eBay和其他购物网站强力推动更迅速的送货服务，对于大多数美国消费者来说，享受外加5美元的同日送达服务将变为现实。实际上，eBay已经在5个地区（芝加哥、达拉斯、纽约、旧金山和圣何塞）开展承诺1小时送货上门的eBay Now服务。我们估计，2014年：

    eBay公司的eBay Now服务将扩展至25个城市：84%

    亚马逊将与打车服务提供商Uber合作：52%

    沃尔玛将雇用下班的收银员把商品送至客户家门口：10%。

    Amazon.com will buy the post office

    Seven straight years with a net loss. Sounds a lot like other startups Amazon has invested in. Except we're talking about a fiscal 2013 loss of $5 billion, and we're also talking about the U.S. Postal Service, which Amazon announces it will buy for, well, free. Unions are up in arms; drones rejoice. (No, this won't and can't happen in 2014. But the odds of the USPS getting privatized by 2020? Hey, not that small ...)

    Odds: 22%.

    亚马逊将收购USPS

    连续7年净亏损，听起来跟亚马逊投资的其他初创公司非常相似。只不过，我们讨论的是一家2013财年亏损高达50亿美元的机构，没错，它就是美国邮政总局(U.S. Postal Service，简称USPS )，亚马逊将宣布其免费收购计划。邮政工会势必会竭力反对；无人机大概会在空中窃喜不已（不，这一幕不会也不可能在2014年发生。但USPS在2020年前私有化的几率恐怕就没这么小了）。

    概率: 22%。

    Janet Yellen will get into a shouting match

    The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee has long been one of the most collegial institutions in policymaking, with disagreements couched in econo-speak and tucked away in old meeting minutes. Rare is the spat that breaks into the open. But in 2014 all that changes, as disputes over the pace of tapering play out in fiery speeches and news-media interviews.

    Odds: 59%.

    珍妮特•耶伦将陷入唇枪舌剑的大论战

    美联储公开市场委员会(Open Market Committee)一直是合议气氛最浓厚的决策机构之一，委员们的分歧总是隐藏在晦涩难懂的经济术语，以及古老的会议纪要之中。公开的口角之争非常罕见。但在2014年，所有这一切都将改变，围绕美联储月度购债削减规模(tapering)的争议将在言辞激烈的演讲和新闻媒体访谈中一一呈现。

    概率: 59%。

    Future celebrity product launch

    Louis CK: CK9 cologne

    Odds: 4%.

    明星将发布同名产品

    喜剧演员路易斯•CK将推出CK9古龙香水。

    概率: 4%。

    McKesson will buy Rite Aid

    No. 14 on the Fortune 500 buys No. 113. The generic-drug industry has been quickly consolidating, and major distributor McKesson Corp. (MCK, Fortune 500) is pursuing new ventures. But while it went shopping in Europe, its American competitors called dibs on the top two U.S. pharmacy chains, striking purchasing deals with Walgreen (WAG,Fortune 500) and CVS (CVS, Fortune 500). The odd men out, Rite Aid (RAD, Fortune 500) and McKesson, could become bedfellows, analysts say: "If I'm Rite Aid, seeing two of my biggest competitors partnering up for better deals on generics, I might be motivated to try and keep up," says Tom Gallucci of FBR Capital Markets. McKesson has denied interest in a U.S. retailer, but "seems like the most logical partner," he says -- if not outright buyer.

    Odds: 20%.

    麦克森公司将购买Rite Aid公司

    高居《财富》美国500强排行榜(Fortune 500)第14名的公司将收购位列第113名的公司。仿制药行业已经迅速地整合巩固，这个行业主要的分销商麦克森公司( McKesson Corp)正在寻求新的投资目标。但就在这家公司在欧洲扫货之际，它的美国竞争对手捷足先登，纷纷与排名前两位的美国连锁药店运营商沃尔格林( Walgreen)和CVS达成收购协议。分析师表示，作为剩下的局外人，公司(Rite Aid)与麦克森公司有可能结为连理。“如果我是来爱德的话，看到最大的两个竞争对手在仿制药零售领域携手获得了更好的交易，我或许会尝试跟进，”FBR资本市场公司(FBR Capital Markets)的汤姆•加卢奇这样说道。麦克森已经否认了该公司有收购美国零售商的意向，但同时又说，它“似乎是最合乎逻辑的合作伙伴，”如果不是径直收购的话。

    概率: 20%。

    Crowdfunding's big year

    LendingClub will go public in a highly successful, drama-less event. Then will come the blowback. If loan default rates rise because of a stumble in the economy, then the sky-high returns that lenders are getting now may well tumble -- from the current average 9% or so to about 5%. Traditional lending institutions are also likely to grumble about the competition, claiming that peer-to-peer funders are crippling the long-term viability of that classic American company-builder: the small-business loan. But somehow both the S&Ls and P2Ps survive the year, albeit with increased regulation for the latter. Odds of a LendingClub IPO in 2014: 85%.

    众筹公司迎来大年

    借贷俱乐部(LendingClub)将成功上市，应该不会出现太大的波折。但过不了不久，它将感受到一股强烈的反冲气流。如果贷款违约率因经济不景气而上升，贷款人现在获得的天价回报将随之大幅回落，从目前大约9%的平均收益率下挫至5%左右。传统的贷款机构也可能抱怨来自众筹平台的竞争压力，他们会说这种点对点(P2P)的融资方式正在削弱美国公司经典的构筑渠道(即小企业贷款）的长期生存能力。但储贷协会(S&L)和点对点融资平台依然会安然度过今年，尽管后者将面临更加严格的监管。借贷俱乐部在2014年启动IPO的概率是：85%。

    Bitcoin will stay irrelevant

    The hyped-up crypto-currency and darling of the techno-libertarian set has a problem: It's fairly difficult to spend bitcoins on everyday transactions. For the most part, owners horde their stash or trade it on Mt.Gox rather than use it to pay for, say, toothpaste. Will 2014 be the year that changes? Honestly, no. Here, the chances a business will announce "bitcoins welcome":

    New Egg: 40%

    Amazon.com: 15%

    McDonald's: 5%

    IRS: 1%.

    比特币依然无法进入日常交易环节

    尽管这种被技术自由意志主义者视为宠儿的加密货币在过去一年赚得了足够多眼球，但它面临一个重大问题：比特币很难进入日常的交易环节。大部分持有者将手中的比特币藏匿在 Mt.Gox，并在这个平台进行交易，而不是用它来购买牙刷这样的日常生活用品。这种情形有望在2014年出现变化吗？老实说，不会。各大企业宣布“欢迎使用比特币”的几率如下：

    新蛋购物网(New Egg)：40%

    亚马逊：15%

    麦当劳(McDonald's)：5%

    美国国税局(IRS)： 1%。

    2014 will bring 3-D everything

    Decent 3-D printers drop to the sub-$1,000 mark, laptops get a third dimension of display, and Googlers add holography to their widely used in-house videoconferencing system -- making faraway co-workers feel as if they're in the same room.

    Odds: 73%.

    3-D打印机将打印一切

    一台体面的3-D打印机售价将降至1,000美元以下。笔记本电脑将配备三维显示屏。谷歌员工将为广泛应用的内部视频会议系统添加全息图，从而使远方的员工觉得自己与其他同事身处同一个房间。

    概率: 73%（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒。