Bitcoin's 2013 remains impressive, even after the digital currency has taken a serious tumble since late November – at the December 18th price of $530, a Bitcoin purchased for $13 in January would return over 4,000%. Another explosion has tracked that price's: the emergence this year of 100 or more "altcoins," collections of code and community modeled after bitcoin and with names like Novacoin, Zetacoin, Bitbar, Cryptogenic Bullion, BBQCoin and, yes, Sexcoin. Some offer minor but meaningful variations on bitcoin's technology, while most are outright copies – and a huge proportion are fraud schemes preying on the enthusiasm of cryptocurrency supporters.

    Still, these coins are an important part of the story of bitcoin, and some are likely to be part of any future that includes cryptocurrency, a type of digital currency that depends on cryptography. Even after the recent bitcoin decline took many altcoin valuations down with it, there are five altcoins with market capitalizations of over $10 million each, another 20 of over $1 million each, and dozens of others ranging down to the aptly named "junkcoin," with a current market cap of about $75,000. Andreas M. Antonopoulos, a consultant on several bitcoin-related startup projects, author of a forthcoming technical volume on bitcoin, and host of the popular "Let's Talk Bitcoin" podcast, describes this landscape as the "crypto-currency ecosystem."

    The ecological metaphor hinges in part on an evolutionary logic. "Altcoins serve two purposes," Antonopoulos says. "First, they test new tech features, showing whether they work and whether the market will accept them." Those new features mostly revolve around variations on bitcoin's mining algorithm – the "proof of work" problem-solving that secures a distributed currency and its transaction records. Variations include those allowing a currency to be processed by different equipment than bitcoin (Litecoin, current market cap $330 million), those purporting to use less energy (Peercoin, $47 million), and those that offer faster transaction confirmation times (many, among them Feathercoin, $5 million). Other cryptocoins claim more idiosyncratic variations, such as the demurrage built into Freicoin ($2 million), which loses value if it is held without being spent. There's even a currency that uses its proof-of-work algorithm to search for new prime numbers (that currency is named, of course, Primecoin, $6 million). Those features that prove attractive and compatible after 'testing' by an altcoin, Antonopoulos says, will likely be incorporated into Bitcoin.

    No one seems to foresee any of the altcoins displacing bitcoin as the dominant cryptocurrency. As a recent Bank of America report pointed out, bitcoin's dominance is guaranteed above all by the network effect: the value imparted by the huge size and capital investment of its community of miners, service providers, users, and merchants. Without bitcoin's volume and network strength, many of the altcoins will disappear, as their networks are abandoned or overwhelmed by hackers – Antonopoulos says the second purpose of altcoins is to "demonstrate spectacular failure modes" whose lessons will strengthen the survivors.

    2013年，比特币的表现继续让人大开眼界，就算11月末它开始大跌之后，仍然精彩不减——如果按照12月18日530美元的价格，在1月份以13美元买入的比特币回报率超过了4,000%。比特币价格飙升还引爆了另一轮热潮：今年先后涌现出100多种“替代币”，它们都是各种社区模仿比特币用代码攒出来的，名字也千奇百怪，比如什么Nova币、Zeta币、Bitbar、Cryptogenic Bullion、BBQ币，哦对了，还有Sex币。其中有些对比特币的技术做了小幅、有意义的改进，但多数都是赤裸裸的抄袭——很大一部分干脆就是一种诈骗手段，纯粹是想利用加密数字货币支持者的热情发笔横财。

    不过，这些货币仍然是比特币发展史的重要组成部分，其中有一些还可能在未来获得应用，其中就包括加密数字货币，这是一种主要使用加密技术制造的数字货币。就算近期由于比特币价格大跌拖累很多替代币的价值跟着下挫，还有五种替代币各自市值均超过一千万美元，另外20种每种超过一百万美元，还有一些被恰当地称为“垃圾币”的，当前市值也有约75,000美元。安德里亚斯•M. 安托诺坡罗斯是几个涉及比特币业务的初创企业的咨询师。他写了一本即将出版的比特币技术专著，也是知名播客“话说比特币”（Let's Talk Bitcoin）的主持人。他把当前这种情况称为“加密数字货币生态系统”。

    这个生态学比喻与进化逻辑有一部分关系。安托诺坡罗斯称：“替代币有两个目的。首先，它们是用来测试新技术的，看看这些技术是否可行，以及市场是否接受。”这些新技术主要围绕比特币挖掘算法的不同形式展开——这种算法是一种“工作量证明”（proof of work，指系统为达到某目标而设置的工作度量方法，最初被应用在网络的拒绝服务识别和反垃圾邮件上——译注）的问题解决技术，它能保护流通的货币及其交易记录。这些采用不同技术的货币包括：允许一种货币由不同于比特币的设备处理的（Lite币，目前市值为3.3亿美元），声称使用能量更少的（Peer币，市值4700万美元），以及能提供更快交易确认时间的（这种货币有很多，比如市值500万美元的Feather币）。其他加密数字货币则宣称使用了更加特殊的技术，比如Frei币（市值两百万美元）内置了滞期费，如果它仅仅持有却不用于消费的话，就会失去价值。甚至还有一种货币用工作量证明算法来寻找新质数（这种货币的名字当然就叫Prime币，现在市值六百万美元）。安托诺坡罗斯称，这些技术特性在接受某种替代币“测试”后如果证明富有吸引力、而且可以实现兼容，它就有希望被纳入比特币的范畴。

    不过似乎没人认为这些替代币会取代比特币，成为一统天下的加密数字货币。正如近期美国银行（Bank of America）的一份报告所指出的，比特币的统治地位主要是由网络效应来保障的：它的价值是由超大规模和挖矿群体、服务提供商、用户及商家所投入的资本赋予的。如果没有比特币的规模及网络的力量，许多替代币随着它们依附的网络被抛弃或被黑客攻破，都会销声匿迹——安托诺坡罗斯称替代币的第二个目的就在于，“展示触目惊心的失败模式”，而它失败的教训将使幸存者更加强大。

    But unlike Bank of America, which predicts a future in which Bitcoin stands alone, Antonopoulos sees space for at least a few alternatives after the inevitable shakeout. Those whose features cannot be incorporated into bitcoin, which manage to remain secure, and which build a robust user base will survive, he says. At the end of the process, Antonopoulos foresees Bitcoin holding between 80 and 85% of all cryptocurrency capitalization, with the remaining value divided between as few as five or six altcoins. The surviving altcoins may serve different niches within an evolved cryptocoin ecosystem, and all will offer a 'release valve' for users who feel that Bitcoin is too expensive – a near inevitability, given Bitcoin's strictly controlled growth rate and eventual growth cap.

    So far, one feature has been more important than any other in helping any altcoin build user buy-in: honest, transparent, and relatively selfless behavior by its developers. Litecoin lead developer Charlie Lee made great efforts to ensure cryptocurrency supporters' awareness and access at Litecoin's launch, when any cryptocurrency is easiest to mine. "I released the source code a week before the launch [in October of 2011], so people could prepare [to mine]." In part thanks to this push for fairness and openness, litecoin is now the second-biggest cryptocurrency after bitcoin. Creator Sunny King similarly released the sourcecode for his peercoin nine days before mining opened in August of 2012. Peercoin is currently the third-ranked cryptocurrency.

    In the 2013 altcoin explosion, though, Lee says "I haven't seen any other coin roll out with the same level of transparency." It certainly hasn't been the M.O. of the flood of bad actors looking to make a quick buck by starting bogus cryptocurrencies. This is usually accomplished through what's known as a "premine," in which the founders of a currency generate a large chunk of currency for themselves before releasing the mining code to the public. Those founders will then undertake a big marketing push, including, it is rumored, the occasional payoff to a prominent spokesman and bribes in exchange for listing on cryptocoin trading exchanges, which can confer a sheen of legitimacy. Then, when the hyped, bogus coin is released, adoption by cryptocoin enthusiasts can give its value a brief bump, and unscrupulous founders can unload their premined loot. "In excess of 80% of altcoins are pump-and-dump schemes in the most traditional sense of the term," says Antonopoulos.

    By contrast, Charlie Lee claims he hasn't disproportionately benefitted from the creation of litecoin. "I have some, I wish I had more, like everyone else." Lee has benefitted, though, in terms of community stature and influence, as he and litecoin have come to exemplify the role of altcoins in strengthening the overall cryptocoin ecosystem. "The litecoin development team works pretty closely with the bitcoin dev team. The latest bitcoin release contained a lot of code that had been tested out in litecoin for a while, because we're a slightly smaller market and we're more nimble to make changes." 

    美国银行认为未来比特币将一家独大，但安托诺坡罗斯的看法与之相左。他认为在这个市场发生不可避免的暴跌之后，至少会有几种货币都有存活的空间。他说，那些无法被归入比特币范畴、但设法保持了安全性，同时拥有可靠用户基础的货币将会存活下来。按照安托诺坡罗斯的预测，最终比特币将拥有加密数字货币市值的80%-85%，而剩余价值将由五到六种替代币瓜分。这些幸存的替代币可能会在一个不断演变的加密数字币生态系统中服务于几个细分市场，同时它们都将为那些觉得比特币太贵的用户提供“泄压阀”——考虑到比特币严格受控的增长率和最终增长极限，它的天价基本上不可避免。

    迄今为止，有助于替代币用户买入的特点中有一点尤为重要：开发者诚实、透明、相对无私的行为方式。Lite币的主要开发者查理•李花了很大力气确保数字加密货币支持者在Lite币推出时就得知消息并能够买入，因为任何一种数字加密货币在这种时候都是最容易挖掘的。他说：“正式推出（2011年10月）一周前我就公布了源代码，这样大家就可以做好（挖掘）准备工作了。”在某种程度上，也正是由于这份保持公平透明的努力，Lite币现在是仅次于比特币的第二大数字加密货币。同样地，另一个开发者桑尼•金也是在其Peer币2012年8月可正式挖掘那天的九天前就公布了源代码。结果Peer币现在成了排名第三位的数字加密货币。

    但是，在2013年的替代币爆发中，李表示“我没看到其中有哪种币推出时有同样的透明度。”这确实不是一帮坏蛋想通过伪造数字加密货币挣快钱那么简单。通常，这种发财之道是通过所谓的“提前挖掘”来实现的，即某个货币的创始人在向公众正式公布挖掘代码前自己先囤积一大笔货币。随后，他们就会大搞市场推广。有传言称，这种手法就包括定期向知名发言人塞钱，并通过行贿让自己的货币在交易所挂牌，这样一来就能让这种货币披上合法的外衣。然后，当已被大肆炒作的假币一推出，数字加密货币追捧者的大举买入就会让它的价格迅速蹿升，此时这位不择手段的创始人就能大笔出货了。安托诺坡罗斯说：“用大家最熟悉的说法就是，超过80%的替代币玩的都是拉高出货的把戏。”

    相比之下 ，查理•李就表示自己并没有从创造Lite币中大发横财。他说：“我赚了点钱，当然和大家一样我也希望能多赚点。”不过从行业地位和影响力来说 ，他却获益良多，因为他和Lite币已经充分证明，替代币在强化整个数字加密货币生态系统上大有可为。李表示：“Lite币的开发团队与比特币的开发团队现在正在紧密合作。最新推出的比特币含有大量暂时未经Lite币测试的代码，因为我们这个市场比较小，要进行改变也更灵活。”  

    Lee credits several factors besides his own honesty with the success of litecoin. First, because litecoin uses a different base code from bitcoin to secure its transaction records, it has not been mined on the same processors as bitcoin. This separation keeps miners from switching back and forth between bitcoin and litecoin during periods of low competition for coins, reducing volatility and vulnerability. Litecoin's adoption has also been helped because it represents a small improvement over bitcoin – litecoin's transaction confirmation is 12 times faster than bitcoin's. Hence the name.

    In addition to useful innovations and honest developers, Andreas M. Antonopoulos says that the most important way to evaluate the long-term viability of a cryptocurrency is its acceptance by merchants as payment for real goods. That remains a high bar – litecoin is the only altcoin with so much as a handful of merchant adopters, and even bitcoin advocates still trumpet every new merchant acceptance as a watershed. But developers and communities are beginning to make adoption a priority alongside technology: the fledgling feathercoin, according to spokesman Chris Ellis, has an entire team devoted to merchant relations.

    Community acceptance is, logically, the fundamental driver of cryptocurrency utility and value, since all currency ultimately operates on a basis of collective trust. It remains challenging to persuade most people that cryptocurrency can be as trustworthy as a printed government guarantee, but Ellis gave me perhaps the most concise and convincing version of that pitch I've heard. "It turns out, money is just a ledger. It's a way of recording all the economic activity in a society."

    Above and beyond all the hacker experimentation and raw avarice, the altcoin explosion is driven by a belief that the cryptocurrency model represents a radically new, cheaper, and better way to keep that ledger. Cryptocoin advocates, including altcoin founders, believe that cryptocurrency will trigger an epochal power shift away from the controllers of today's financial system. "Banks are operating a tollbooth economy," said Ellis. "Banks want 10% of revenue for credit cards," a cost that cryptocurrency's distributed efficiency slashes to nearly nothing. Altcoins, Ellis said, demonstrate that "anyone with sufficient will and devotion and time to nurture the community" can now build their own money.

    That remains to be seen, and in the meantime, altcoins are in for a very bumpy ride. "99% of them will expire in the process of creative destruction," says Antonopoulos. "And that's fine, because every once in a while, something unique and amazing will pop out." 

    对于Lite币的成功，除了自己的诚实，李还归功于另外几个要素。首先，因为Lite币采用了不同于比特币的基础代码来保护交易记录。因此，它就不用在与比特币一样的处理器上挖掘。这种差异就让挖币者能在货币争抢相对缓和的时期在比特币与Lite币之间来回运作，从而可以平抑市场波动，降低损失。采用Lite币还有一大好处，因为它比比特币略有改进——它的交易确认要比比特币快12倍，这也是它得名的由来。

    安托诺坡罗斯认为，除了有效创新和诚实的开发者以外，评估某种数字加密货币长期存活能力最重要的方式就是看它是否能被商家接受，成为购买真实商品的货币。这将是个很高的门槛——Lite币是唯一被少量商家接受的替代币，而就算比特币的拥趸，只要有新的商家接受它，都会被吹为又登上了一座分水岭。不过开发者和替代币社群目前也开始把商家接受度作为与技术同等重要的要务了：据发言人克里斯•埃利斯称，羽翼丰满的Feather币现在已组建了一个致力于开发商家关系的团队。

    而从逻辑上说，社群接受则是数字加密货币的实际用途和价值的根本推动力，因为所有货币最终都必须建立在集体信任的基础上才能流通。目前要让绝大多数人相信数字加密货币和政府印发的货币同样可信还有很大难度，但埃利斯对我说了一句我听过最简洁也最有说服力的话：“实际上，货币只是一笔分类账。它是记录社会上所有经济活动的一种手段。”

    替代币不仅仅是黑客的试验和求财的贪婪，它的爆发是受到这样一种信念的驱使，即数字加密货币代表了一种全新的、更便宜也更好的保留经济分类账的手段。数字加密币的拥趸，包括替代币的创造者在内，他们都相信数字加密货币将掀起划时代的变革，摆脱如今金融系统控制者的束缚。埃利斯说：“银行搞的是收过路费式的经济。它们的信用卡要收10%的手续费。”而在数字加密货币的流通效率下，这个成本几乎可以忽略不计。埃利斯称，Alt币表明“那些拥有足够意志力、全身心投入、花大量时间培育虚拟货币社区的人”现在已经能赚到钱了。

    这句话是否会应验还有待观察，与此同时，替代币还将迎来十分坎坷的发展历程。安托诺坡罗斯说：“它们中有99%都会在创造性毁灭的过程中灰飞烟灭。不过这样也好，因为每隔一段时间，就会有更独特、更吸引眼球的新生事物崭露头角。”（财富中文网）

    译者：清远