Inside a white chalet in the tiny village of Magglingen, tucked into the Jura mountains in the northwest corner of Switzerland, skilled artisans create luxury watches like the Dentelle et Diamants et Roses, an 18-carat gold confection with 101 pink and white diamonds that fetches up to $89,100.

    But the establisseurs, or assemblers, at Delance SA, one of dozens of tiny firms in this cradle of Swiss mechanical watchmaking, are not feeling Delance's motto of "audacious, erotic, feminine, and powerful" these days.

    A shocking ruling by Swiss regulators on Oct. 25 will allow Swatch Group, the behemoth watch empire headquartered across nearby Lake Biel, to cut back sales of critical parts to Delance and other competitors.

    Swatch, the world's largest watch company, known for its colorful plastic watches, owns a near-monopoly on the manufacturing and sale of precision mechanical movements and components in the Alpine nation. But starting next year it will cut essential supplies it has sold to competitors for more than three decades, first by 25%, then tapering them each year until Dec. 31, 2019, when it will pull the plug entirely.

    The landmark ruling has shell-shocked small firms like Delance -- and sparked speculation that Switzerland's multi-billion dollar luxury watch industry, a highly fragmented world whose roots date to the 1500s, may be due for a shakeout.

    The ruling "will put a lot of small companies in great pain," Giselle Rufer, the chief executive of Delance, wrote in an email. She added that she would have to tie up working capital by stockpiling supplies, scrambling for new suppliers and potentially raising her prices for watches like the Dentelle. One looming problem: The tailored cases of Delance watches might not fit parts from other suppliers. Rufer, regarded as the most influential woman in the male-dominated world of Swiss watchmaking, should know: She launched Swatch's children's line before leaving the giant to found Delance in 1996.

    The ruling is one of the biggest shifts to hit Swiss watchmaking since its founding four centuries ago in Geneva, when Calvinist reforms prohibiting the wearing of jewelry spurred goldsmiths to invent watches.

    Now dozens of smaller, privately owned makers are buzzing about whether they can afford tens of millions of dollars needed to invest in their own manufacturing of parts. Industry analysts are whispering about potential acquisitions of smaller watchmakers by investors and the consolidation of makers into larger groups. And some makers are wondering whether China may become a new supplier.

    While the ruling does not affect escapements -- the elaborate, spiral-shaped wheels that make a watch tick -- it does cover other parts critical to the "Swiss-Made" mystique and label, including balance wheels, gear trains, and mainsprings.

    Beatrice Howald, a spokeswoman for Biel-based Swatch, said that the company views the ruling as "a positive, albeit tentative, first step toward finally making it clear to all the brands and groups in the Swiss watch industry that they have to invest in their own mechanical movements and assume the associated industrial risk themselves."     

    瑞士西北角的汝拉山脉之中藏着一个名叫马戈林根的小村庄。技艺精湛的工匠就在这个村子的一栋白色小屋内，创造了诸多享誉世界的奢华手表。比如配有18克拉黄金、101颗粉红色和白色钻石，售价高达89,100美元的玫瑰花边钻石表(Dentelle et Diamants et Roses)。

    但这些日子以来，Delance SA公司的装配工却感受不到这家手表制造商的座右铭——“大胆，挑逗，女人味十足，功能强大”——带来的踏实感。在这个瑞士机械制表业的摇篮，像Delance 这样的小公司还有几十家。

    10月25日，瑞士监管机构做出了一个令人震惊的裁决。根据这项裁决，总部位于比尔湖对岸的手表巨擘斯沃琪集团(Swatch Group)可以削减出售给Delance公司和其他竞争对手的关键零部件数量。

    以生产彩色塑料手表著称的斯沃琪集团是世界上最大的钟表公司。在这个阿尔卑斯山国家，斯沃琪集团几乎垄断了精密机械机芯和其他部件的制造和销售。但从明年开始，这家公司将改变已经延续了三十多年的做法，开始削减出售给竞争对手的关键零部件数量。最初削减25%，再逐年减少，直至2019年12月31日彻底停止供应。

    这项具有里程碑意义的裁决犹如一发炮弹，着实吓坏了Delance这样的小公司。有识之士甚至认为，向来以高度分散著称、发展历史可上溯至16世纪初期、价值数十亿美元的瑞士豪华手表业可能将迎来一场残酷的大洗牌。

    这次裁决“将让大量小公司遭受了无尽的痛苦，”Delance公司首席执行官吉赛尔•鲁弗在一封电子邮件中写道。她还表示，她的公司将不得不动用营运资金储备物资，竭力争夺新的供应商，还有可能提高手表售价。一个迫在眉睫的问题是，Delance手表多为量身定做的产品，其他供应商的零部件或许无法满足这种需要。在男性主导的瑞士制表业中，鲁弗一向被视为最具影响力的女性高管，她肯定明白这个道理——在1996年离开斯沃琪集团、创建Delance公司之前，鲁弗曾经帮助这家业内翘楚推出了儿童系列手表。

    4个世纪前，加尔文教徒禁止佩戴首饰的改革方案促使日内瓦的金匠发明手表，瑞士制表业由此发轫。而今天的这项裁定堪称瑞士制表业自创立以来遭受的最大冲击之一。

    现在，几十家小型私人制表商正在匆忙而紧张地讨论着一个问题：它们能否承受自己生产零部件所需的数千万美元投资资金？行业分析师正在暗自评估投资者收购小型制表商，以及小制表商合并为集团的可能性。另外一些制表商则想知道，中国是否有可能成为新的供应商。

    尽管这项裁决并不影响擒纵轮（让一只手表滴答作响的螺旋形轮毂），但它确实涵盖平衡轮、齿轮传动链和主发条等关键部件，而“瑞士制造”的神秘性和标签皆有赖于此。

    斯沃琪集团女发言人比阿特丽斯•豪沃尔德表示，公司认为这项裁决是“积极的，尽管只是带有试探性的第一步，但它的最终目标是明确告知瑞士钟表业的所有品牌和公司，他们必须自己投资生产机械机芯，承担相关的行业风险。”     

    Along with private banking and chocolate, luxury timepieces are Switzerland's trademark. Swiss watch exports rose 11% last year to a record 21.4 billion Swiss francs (almost $24 billion), according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, a trade group. Wealthy Asian and Middle Eastern consumers now account for 54% of sales.

    With its quartz-powered, funky designs, Swatch, founded in 1983, is viewed by old-world competitors as a down-market parvenu that tarnishes the Swiss mystique. But in recent years the company has pushed into the luxury market, acquiring storied brands like Blancpain, whose heritage dates to 1735; Breuguet, referenced by Stendahl and Pushkin; and jeweler Harry Winston, whose diamonds draped Marilyn Monroe in Gentlemen Prefer Blondes.

    Swatch, which also owns mid-range brands like Omega and Tissot, now accounts for one one-third of all Swiss watch sales. Its net profit soared 26% last year to 1.6 billion Swiss francs ($1.76 billion). Swatch wants to cut parts sales to have more parts for its own watches; analysts say in doing so, the giant could boost its own watch sales by $4 billion.

    While the ruling carves out an exception for smaller watchmakers like Delance, its loose wording leaves uncertain how Swatch will choose watchmakers to which it will actually sell parts. "Swatch Group is a gatekeeper to the 'Swiss Made'" label," says a 2010 Harvard Business School report on the industry. Even prestige brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Jaeger-LeCoultre use some Swatch-made parts. At least 50% of a watch must be made in Switzerland in order to bear the coveted "Swiss Made" label.

    Paul Swinand, an equity analyst at Morningstar Investment Services who covers the industry, said the ruling left open some key questions. "What if somebody's big and Swatch likes them, but what if they're small and Swatch doesn't," he said.

    Arash Farin, a vice president specializing in consumer goods and media at The Sage Group, a boutique investment bank in Los Angeles, said that consumers who favor smaller niche luxury brands like Delance and Frederique Constant may be soon be paying higher prices. "Nearly every Swiss watchmaker uses Swatch components," Farin said, adding that smaller players may have to consolidate with competitors or sell themselves. "The magnitude of this decision should not be underestimated."

    Mechanical Swiss watchmaking nearly collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s amid the introduction of cheap Japanese quartz watches. The hidebound industry has been slow to innovative, with Swatch effectively subsidizing research and design of parts, but it has clung to its image and prestige.

    But Swatch's crown jewel is ETA, a manufacturing plant in nearby Grenchen that makes over 75% of the core mechanisms used in watches made by luxury competitors. Still another Swatch subsidiary, Nivarox-FAR, makes over 90% of the balance springs that regulate watches. Watch industry insiders call the near-monopoly "bolt to a dolt." Sellita and Soprod, smaller competitors, produce parts in much smaller volumes; Sellita even relies on ETA for some supplies for assembled pieces. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

    Peter Stas, the co-founder and chief executive of Frederique Constant, called the ruling "a bombshell" on the company's website, adding that "a number of smaller manufacturers will be forced out of business." Deloitte said in a 2013 industry report that smaller brands unable to build production capacity for parts would face higher supply costs.

    But Swatch has threatened for more than a decade to taper supplies, giving competitors plenty of heads-up. Along the way, COMCO, the Swiss regulator, confused matters when it initially vetoed Swatch's tapering plan last July.

    与私人银行和巧克力一道，豪华手表是瑞士的标识性产品。根据瑞士钟表工业联合会(Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry)提供的信息，瑞士手表的出口额去年增长了11%，增至创纪录的214亿瑞士法郎（约合240亿美元）。富裕的亚洲和中东消费者在销售额的占比现已在已经达到了54%。

    成立于1983年的斯沃琪集团一直被旧世界的竞争对手视为面向低收入群体的暴发户。在它们看来，凭借时髦设计打天下的斯沃琪石英手表沾污了瑞士手表特有的神秘感。但近些年来，这家公司全力进军奢侈手表市场，先后收购了多个传奇品牌，比如源远流长、可上溯至1735年的宝珀表(Blancpain)，以及被大文学家司汤达和普希金引用的宝玑表(Breuguet)。此外，斯沃琪集团还收购了珠宝品牌海瑞温斯顿( Harry Winston)——在电影《绅士爱美人》( Gentlemen Prefer Blondes)中，玛丽莲•梦露佩戴的钻石就是这家珠宝商的产品。

    同时还拥有欧米茄(Omega)和天梭(Tissot)等中档品牌的斯沃琪集团目前占据瑞士手表总销售额的三分之一。去年，这家公司的净利润猛增26%，飙升至16亿瑞士法郎(约合17.6亿美元)。斯沃琪集团希望削减对外出售的零部件数量，从而为自有品牌留存更多零部件。分析人士预测，通过这个举措，这家制表业巨头有望将自有品牌的销售额提升40亿美元。

    尽管这项裁定对Delance等小型制表商网开一面，但它松散的措辞让人无法确知，斯沃琪将如何选择真正有望购买其零部件的制表商。“斯沃琪集团是‘瑞士制造’标签的看门人，”哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School) 2010年发布的一份瑞士手表业报告如是写道。就连劳力士( Rolex)、百达翡丽(Patek Philippe)和积家(Jaeger-LeCoultre)等知名品牌也使用一些由斯沃琪集团制造的零部件。一只手表要想获得令人垂涎的“瑞士制造”标签，至少一半的零部件必须是瑞士制造的。

    晨星投资服务公司(Morningstar Investment Services)手表业股票分析师保罗•斯温纳德表示，这项裁定并没有解决一些关键性的问题。他说：“如果一家制表商的规模很大，但受到了斯沃琪集团的青睐，那将会怎么样？而如果一家公司是小制表商，但斯沃琪不喜欢它，那又会发生什么事情？”他说。

    洛杉矶精品投资银行圣人集团( The Sage Group)消费品和媒体事务副总裁阿拉仕•法林认为，青睐Delance和康斯登(Frederique Constant)等小众奢侈品牌的消费者可能很快就不得不支付更高的买价。他说：“几乎每家瑞士制表商都在使用斯沃琪生产的零部件。”法林认为，小型制表商或许不得不与竞争对手合并，甚至有可能整体售出。“这项决定的影响范围不应该被低估。”

    20世纪70年代和80年代，受廉价的日本石英手表冲击，瑞士的机械手表制造业几近崩溃。自那时起，这个以墨守成规著称的行业开始缓慢地创新。斯沃琪集团对零部件研发和设计的投资收到了回报，但这家公司一直坚守着自身的形象和声誉。

    但斯沃琪集团的皇冠上的明珠是位于小城格伦兴附近的ETA制造厂。各大奢华手表制造商所使用的机械装置中，超过75%是这家工厂制造的。此外，超过90%的游丝（调节手表的重要部件）是由斯沃琪集团另一家子公司Nivarox-FAR生产制造的。业内人士声称，这是一种“傻子都无法规避”的垄断。作为规模较小的竞争对手，Sellita和Soprod生产的零部件数量根本无法与斯沃琪集团相匹敌；Sellita公司甚至依赖ETA制造厂供应一些组装好的部件。这家公司没有回应本文作者的采访请求。

    康斯登公司联合创始人兼首席执行官彼得•斯塔斯在该公司官网发表声明称，这项裁定是“一颗重磅炸弹”，并补充说，“一些规模较小的制造商将被迫歇业。”德勤咨询公司(Deloitte )发布的2013年行业报告预测称，无力构建零部件生产能力的小品牌将面临更高的采购成本。

    但斯沃琪集团早在十多年前就扬言将逐步削减零部件销量，给予了竞争对手充足的警告。然而，在去年7月份首次受理斯沃琪集团的削减计划时，作为监管机构的瑞士竞争委员会(COMCO)作出了否决裁定，从而使得这项计划的前景变得扑朔迷离。

    Some large watchmakers have paid attention.

    Tag Heuer, part of French luxury group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, is building a parts plant in Chevenez. It has also begun using parts from Seiko, a Japanese rival to Swiss makers.

    Richemont Group, a giant Swiss luxury conglomerate with brands like Baume et Mercier, Cartier, and Piaget, is pouring money into research and development to create its own parts-manufacturing plants and has been buying up tiny parts suppliers in recent years, Farin said.

    "Richemont is largely self-sufficient in terms of watch movements," a company spokesman said. "The Group enjoys an excellent relationship with Swatch, which is an important business partner. We do not anticipate that the recently announced ruling will have any impact on Richemont's businesses."

    Delance's Rufer, meanwhile, is worried. "The small companies will find it very difficult to survive," she said. "That is very bad because the creativity is in their hands."    

    一些大型制表商已经变得警觉起来。

    隶属于法国奢侈品巨头路易威登集团( LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton)的豪雅手表公司(Tag Heuer)正在瑞士汝拉州金佛内区建设一家零部件生产厂。此外，它也开始使用日本精工株式会社(Seiko,瑞士制表商的竞争对手之一)生产的零部件。

    据圣人集团副总裁法林透露，为了构建自己的零部件生产厂，拥有波美名士(Baume et Mercier)、卡地亚(Cartier)和伯爵(Piaget)等品牌的瑞士奢侈品巨头历峰集团(Richemont Group)，正在投入数额不菲的研发资金。此外，该公司近些年来一直在收购小型零部件供应商。

    “历峰集团的手表机芯基本上实现了自给自足，”该公司一位发言人表示。“斯沃琪集团是我们公司的重要商业伙伴，我们的关系非常良好。我们并不认为，近期宣布的这项裁定将对历峰集团的业务产生任何影响。”

    与此同时，Delance公司的掌门人鲁弗则忧心如焚。“小公司将很难生存下去，”她说。“这样的前景非常糟糕，因为这些公司恰恰是瑞士手表的创意灵感之源。”（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒