Here's yet another risk the Federal Reserve might want to consider as it exits its bond buying program: Could the growing rout in emerging markets create a financial crisis back home?

    Rising interest rates in the U.S., sparked by indications that the Fed may slow its bond buying, have translated into a summer of pain for emerging markets. India's rupee has plunged 20% against the dollar since May. And Turkey's lira is down 15%. Stock markets in both countries have taken hits as well. Brazil's stock market, too, long a darling of Wall Street, is down 20% this year.

    Right now, bank investors don't seem too concerned. Shares of bank stocks have fallen 4% in the past month as the situation in emerging markets has gotten worse. But investors often stay in denial long after they should. "In general, bank investors haven't been overall concerned," says Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch, who follows bank stocks. "If all of a sudden one of these markets explodes then everyone will be rushing to look at exposures."

    In early June, bank analysts in JPMorgan Chase's London office wrote a report titled "Fed Tapering: Who is Afraid of EM [emerging market] Selloff? We Are!" The report said that rising interest rates would dramatically slow bond sales in emerging markets and work for the big banks. The report was focused on the European banks and said that British banks Standard Charter and HSBC stand to lose the most business.

    In the U.S., that bank could be Citigroup (C). According to the bank's most recent earningspresentations, Citi generated nearly half of all its earnings in the emerging markets. Already a number of banks say they're pulling back from Brazil, where a number of Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs (GS), had ambitions plans to expand just a few months ago.

    But what really drives financial crises, or shocks in the market on fears of them, is not lower revenue, but how much banks could lose if those markets continue to tumble. Figuring out that number can be tough.

    Banks do disclose in the notes to their financial statements how much money they could lose, either because of investment or loans, by country. They only disclose that figure for countries where they have significant holdings or lending operations. And they generally don't tally up all the exposures they have to emerging markets around the world.

    Morgan Stanley (MS), for instance, says in its financial statements it could lose as much as $4.6 billion if all its bets and loans in Brazil went bad, and another $3 billion in China. But those figures are after hedges and adjustment. Ignore those -- hedges don't always work like they should, just ask JPMorgan's London Whale -- and Morgan Stanley's worst case Brazil scenario looks more like $17 billion in losses, according to figures from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. In South Korea, the bank could lose $10 billion, according to the same government stats. South Korea isn't one of the nations that Morgan Stanley highlights in its own financial statements. Add all those potential losses up, and emerging markets sound like something Morgan Stanley investors should be watching. Losses in those three markets alone, again in the worst case scenario, could put a significant dent in the bank's overall capital of $66 billion.

    随着美联储（Federal Reserve）退出债券购买计划，它需要考虑的另一个风险是：越来越多的新兴市场下跌是否会引发美国金融危机？

    由于美联储可能放缓债券购买节奏，引发美国利率上升，今夏新兴市场备受煎熬。印度卢比兑美元汇率自5月以来已跌去20%。土耳其里拉也跌了15%。这两个国家的股市也遭受了打击。华尔街多年偏爱的巴西股市今年也已跌去了20%。

    目前，银行投资者看起来还不太担忧。由于新兴市场状况进一步恶化，银行股价在过去一个月下跌了4%。但投资者总是不愿承认现实。“总体上，银行投资者并不是普遍担心，”跟踪银行股的瑞信（Credit Suisse）分析师莫什•奥伦巴表示。“如果突然之间，某个新兴市场出现暴跌，人们才会措手不及地急于了解风险敞口。”

    6月初，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）伦敦办公室的银行业分析师们写了一份名为《Fed节流：谁担忧新兴市场抛盘？我们！》（Fed Tapering: Who is Afraid of EM [emerging market] Selloff? We Are!）的报告。报告称，利率上涨将显著减缓新兴市场的债券销售和大银行的业务。这份报告着重分析了欧洲银行业，认为渣打（Standard Charter）和汇丰（HSBC）这两家英国银行的业务损失将最为严重。

    在美国，损失最严重的银行可能会是花旗（Citigroup）。根据花旗最新的业绩演示，该行有近半收益来自于新兴市场。事实上，已有多家银行宣布将撤出巴西市场，虽然数月前，包括高盛（Goldman Sachs）在内的很多华尔街公司还有着非常雄心勃勃的巴西扩张计划。

    但真正可能引发金融危机或(由于金融危机担忧而引发)市场动荡的并不是银行收入下降，而是如果这些市场继续震荡，银行将损失多少。要搞清这些数字很困难。

    银行的确会在财报中按国别披露可能会有多少的投资或贷款损失。但它们只披露自己持有大量头寸或贷款业务国家的数据。而且，它们通常也不会把全球新兴市场的所有风险敞口进行汇总处理。

    举例来说，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在财报中表示，如果它在巴西的投资和贷款全都失败，损失将达到46亿美元，在中国损失30亿美元。但这些数据是经过对冲和调整后的数据。请忽略这些数据（对冲并不总是那么靠谱，看看摩根大通的伦敦鲸事件就知道了）。根据美国联邦金融机构检查委员会（Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, FFIEC）的数据，摩根士丹利在巴西的最糟糕情形可能损失170亿美元。根据FFIEC的同一数据，这家银行在韩国可能损失100亿美元。韩国并不是摩根士丹利财报中重点列出的国家。将所有这些潜在损失加在一起，新兴市场听起来确实是摩根士丹利投资者应该关注的领域。在最糟糕情形下，单单上述三个市场的损失就可以让这家银行660亿美元的资本金损失惨重。

    In its financial statements, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) includes China, Brazil, India, and Malaysia among the countries where it says it has the biggest exposures. The bank says it could lose slightly more than $50 billion in those four countries, or about a quarter of its total capital.

    As of the end of last year, Citi said its potential losses in the emerging markets were minimal even in a worst case scenario. It put its total exposure to Brazil and India at $6.2 billion. But, again, that's after hedges. Go back to the government's figures, and total outstanding investment in those two countries is more like $54 billion, which if it all went bad would wipe out a third of Citi's capital.

    And that's not all the money banks could lose in emerging markets. In its most recent quarter, Goldman Sachs said based on the bets it makes in in the currency markets and trades it executes for clients, the firm could lose as much as $26 million in foreign exchange markets a day. That's less than $59 million it could lose a day buying and selling investments, like bonds, that fluctuate with interest rates. But it's not nothing. If Goldman were to hit its maximum losses on half of the days in the quarter, and break even on the rest of the days, that could cost the bank $780 million, or roughly 40% of what it earned in the entire fourth quarter.

    The good news is that few people see us headed for a major emerging market blowup. Most strategists believe the most likely scenario is a gradual slowdown in China and other markets, at a time when developed nations like the U.S. are starting to grow faster again. Brazil could be stuck in slow growth mode. The situation in India might be the toughest to resolve, but again, few are talking default. And that's what will likely happen. The bad news, though, is that there will also likely be days in the coming months and year, when investors are too nervous to remember that.

    摩根大通在财报中指出，它拥有风险敞口最多的国家包括中国、巴西、印度和马来西亚。该行表示，它可能在这四个国家损失略高于500亿美元，约为总资本金的约四分之一。

    去年底，花旗表示，即便在最糟糕情形下，它在新兴市场的潜在损失也微乎其微。该行自称在巴西和印度的总风险敞口为62亿美元。但这也同样是对冲后的数据。回到前面说过的政府数据，花旗在这两个国家的现有投资总额为540亿美元。如果这些投资都无法收回，花旗资本金将减少三分之一。

    这还不是银行业可能在新兴市场的全部损失。高盛在最近一个季度表示，根据它在外汇市场的押注和为客户执行的交易计算，它在外汇市场的损失可能高达每天2,600万美元。这低于其买卖随利率波动的投资品种(比如，债券)可能造成的损失每天5,900万美元。但这个数字也不小了。假如高盛在最近一个季度的半数交易日都达到损失上限，另外一半交易日持平，该行将损失7.80亿美元，差不多是第四季度全部净利润的40%。

    好消息是，几乎没人预计我们即将遭遇新兴市场的全面大崩溃。大多数策略师们认为，最可能出现的情形是，中国和其他市场逐渐放缓，美国等发达国家则开始再次加速增长。巴西可能陷入缓慢增长模式。印度的情形可能最麻烦，但几乎没人认为将出现违约。而这就是可能出现的状况。但坏消息是在未来数月或数年的某些时间，投资者可能会耽于忧虑，忘了这一点。（财富中文网）