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微软市值骤降都是鲍尔默的错吗

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    Steve Ballmer today began his farewell tour, announcing that next September he will step down as CEO of Microsoft after more than 13 years in the position.

    To be sure, it has not been a smooth tenure. But today I've seen some potshots at Ballmer related to the company's market cap. And I think it's largely unfair.

    Yes, Microsoft was valued at around $601 billion when Ballmer took over in early 2000, compared to the $270 billion it was at before the news broke of his pending retirement (it's since gained about $20 billion or so). And yes, it has been lapped by such companies as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG).

    But look at what's happened to the other companies in the top 10 for market cap when Ballmer was named CEO:

1. Microsoft (MSFT):

Then: $601 billion

Now: $270 billion

Change: -55%

2. General Electric (GE)

Then: $492 billion

Now: $242 billion

Change: -50.81%

3. Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Then: $370 billion

Now: $128.5 billion

Change: -65%

4. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)

Then: $289 billion

Now: $241 billion

Change: -16.6%

5. Intel Corp. (INTC)

Then: $291 billion

Now: $112 billion

Change: -61.5%

6. Exxon Mobile (XOM)

Then: $271 billion

Now: $385.5 billion

Change: +42.25%

    史蒂夫•鲍尔默日前已经启动了卸任进程,宣布将于明年9月从担任超过13年的微软(Microsoft)CEO职位上退下来。

    当然,这些年来绝非一帆风顺。但近日我看到一些针对鲍尔默的抨击,将他与微软市值下降联系在一起。我认为,这不公平。

    不错,2000年初鲍尔默接手微软时,这家公司市值约6,010亿美元。而在他可能退休的消息披露前,市值已降至2,700亿美元(消息披露至今,它的市值已增加了约200亿美元)。而且,微软的市值也被苹果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)这样的公司甩在了后边。

    但我们不妨来看看鲍尔默被任命为CEO时市值排在前十位的公司中,其他公司这些年来的市值表现。

1.微软:

当时:6,010亿美元

如今:2,700亿美元

变化:-55%

2.通用电气(General Electric)

当时:4,920亿美元

如今:2,420亿美元变化:-50.81%

3.思科系统(Cisco Systems)

当时:3,700亿美元

如今:1,285亿美元

变化:-65%

4.沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores)

当时:2,890亿美元

如今:2,410亿美元变化:-16.6%

5.英特尔(Intel Corp.)

当时:2,910亿美元

如今:1,120亿美元变化:-61.5%

6.埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobile)

当时:2,710亿美元

如今:3,855亿美元变化:+42.25%

7.IBM

当时:2,080亿美元

如今:2,030亿美元

变化:-2.4%


8. Time Warner Inc. (TWX)

Then: $185 billion

Now: $57 billion

Change: -69%

9. Citigroup (C)

Then: $178 billion

Now: $151 billion

Change: -15.17%

10. Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

Then: $167 billion

Now: $147 billion

Change: -11.97%

    Outside of Exxon Mobile, every single other company in the Top 10 from January 2000 is worth less today than it was then. And most by double digits -- three of which had worse percentage losses than Microsoft did.

    And this doesn't even touch on a series of other tech companies that were a bit lower down the market cap list in January 2000, including Dell (DELL) and Yahoo (YHOO), which also lost more market cap than did Microsoft on a percentage basis.

    Again, I'm not saying Ballmer was a rock star. The company did lose stock market value, tech market share and all cache all over the place.

    But it is worth remembering that he took over the world's most valuable company in the midst of an economic bubble driven by that company's industry. The fall was steep, but that was partially because Microsoft began from the highest brand. Ballmer's legacy -- for better or for worse -- should not be predicated on the irrational exuberance of January 2000.

8.时代华纳(Time Warner Inc.)

当时:1,850亿美元

如今:570亿美元

变化:-69%

9.花旗(Citigroup)

当时:1,780亿美元

如今:1,510亿美元

变化:-15.17%

10.甲骨文(Oracle Corp.)

当时:1,670亿美元

如今:1,470亿美元

变化:-11.97%

    除了埃克森美孚,2000年1月市值排名前十的公司如今的市值都赶不上当年。而且大多数公司市值的降幅都高达两位数,其中三家公司降幅比微软还大。

    而且这还没有包含戴尔(Dell)、雅虎(Yahoo)等2000年1月市值排名稍靠后的众多科技公司,如今这两家公司的降幅也超过了微软。

    必须重申,我不是说鲍尔默是个摇滚明星。微软的市值、科技市场占有率以及在各个领域的情况都出现了后退。

    但值得注意的是,他接手这家全球市值最高的公司之时,正值微软所在行业推动经济处于泡沫的时期。微软的降幅巨大,但部分原因是因为微软从最高处跌落。鲍尔默的传奇——是非曲直——都不应当依据2000年1月的那场非理性繁荣来判定。(财富中文网)

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