When autos are described as a "cyclical business," it means more than the normal waves of rising and falling sales that follow the rhythms of the economy. The industry tends to repeat itself. Some of this comes from the predictable pattern of every-four-year redesigns. Another part comes from proven solutions to recurring problems, such as cutting prices during slow sales. But a surprisingly sizeable slice comes from doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result -- the classic definition of insanity.

    当有人说汽车业是个“周期性行业”时，并不只是说这个行业会随着经济周期而出现正常的销售起伏。它实际上是指这个行业很容易一再故技重施。一方面是由于每四年车型就会来一次重新设计；另一方面是因为，对那些一再出现的问题总是采用老办法应付，比如销售不畅时就降价促销。但令人惊讶的是，这很大程度上是由于总是祭出老一套法宝，却希望得到不同的结果——这是典型的神经错乱的表现。

1. Marking up hot cars

Tacking an additional dealer markup onto models in short supply and hot demand is a long-established retail practice that probably started seconds after the window price sticker with the suggested MSRP was adopted. Parts of the auto business are more about fashion than transportation -- think muscle cars, sports cars, and convertibles -- and dealers can't resist trying to make a quick killing while they are in demand. Automotive News reports that a handful of Chevy dealers are planning on add on up to $20,000 to the sticker price of the 2014 Corvette when the $52,000 car goes on sale in the fall. The news will ignite another fierce debate about whether the dealers are merely using market economics to ration a scarce product -- or alienating long-term customers by gouging.

1.热门车爱涨价

加价销售那些供不应求、炙手可热的车型以牟取暴利的做法在汽车销售业由来已久，可能厂商指导价刚刚新鲜出炉，经销商就开始抬价了。毕竟汽车业有些地方和时尚业、而不是交通运输业更有渊源——比如那些肌肉车、跑车和敞篷车——所以一旦看到有车热销，经销商哪里能忍得住不下快刀狠宰一把。《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）报道称，一帮雪佛兰经销商正在密谋，售价高达52,000美元的雪佛兰科尔维特今年秋季上市后，他们要加价20,000美元。这个消息会再度引发一场热烈的争论，即经销商是否在用市场经济规律定量配给稀缺产品，还是乱涨价疏远长期客户。

2. Fleecing the customer

Remember the bad old days when new car buyers got hit with hidden fees at closings or were coerced into after-market products they didn't need like fabric stain coatings? Well, a dealer group in Dayton, Ohio seems to have revived the practice. According to Automotive News, the Jeff Schmitt Auto Group has been accused of using a "five-finger close" to cover up extra charges on sales contracts and telling finance customers that they were required to buy rust-proofing, service contracts, and other expensive add-ons. Owner Jeff Schmitt says only "a very small number of customers" may have been aggrieved, but his company's activities have caught the attention of the Ohio attorney general's office.

2.销售乱收费

还记得以前那段糟糕的日子吗？那时候新车买主结账时必须为一些隐匿的费用埋单，或是被迫买些根本不需要的售后配件，比如防污座套之类。现在一个位于俄亥俄州代顿市的经销商集团似乎又故伎重演了。据《汽车新闻》报道称，杰夫•施密特汽车集团(Jeff Schmitt Auto Group)被控采用“五指成交法”（five-finger close，一种用来推动迅速成交的销售策略——译注）掩盖销售合同中的额外收费，还对金融行业客户表示他们必须购买防锈服务合同及其他昂贵的配件。集团所有人杰夫•施密特表示“只有很少的客户”可能权利受到了侵害，但这家公司的这类行为已经引起了俄亥俄州首席检察官办公室的高度关注。

3. Delaying new model launches

Henry Ford made what is probably the slowest new model chanegover in history when he shut down Model T production for nine months to get ready for the Model A in 1928. Launches have gotten speedier since then, but they are still causing trouble. Chrysler has held back the introduction of the 2014 Jeep Cherokee (above) because of calibration issues with the new nine-speed transmission. Ford (F, Fortune 500), meanwhile, delayed the launch of the 2013 Lincoln MKZ for four months to fix quality problems and also encountered issues getting the 2013 Escape and Fusion into showrooms. To make sure it doesn't run into similar problems with the 2014 Fusion, Ford is laying on extra training for production workers, according to trade reports, so Old Henry's record seems safe for now.

3.新车老迟到

亨利•福特可能是主导史上新车改款最慢进程的人。1928年，他把T型车的生产线关停了整整九个月，以便为A型车的生产做准备。从那以后，新车改款速度就快多了，但它们仍然会惹出各种麻烦。克莱斯勒公司（Chrysler）就因为全新的九速变速器的调校问题而推迟了发布2014款吉普切诺基（见上图）。与此同时，福特汽车公司（Ford）则将2013款林肯MKZ的上市时间延后四个月以解决质量问题，而在推出2013款“翼虎”（Escape）和蒙迪欧（Fusion）上也碰到了诸多问题。业内报告称，为了确保2014款蒙迪欧不再碰上类似问题，福特正对生产线的工人开展特别培训，这样老亨利的记录看来暂时是能保住了。

4. Blaming the yen

Ford Motor CEO Alan Mulally recently called Japan a currency manipulator and said the weaker yen threatens to undermine U.S. automakers' profits. He may have been channeling General Motors' ex-CEO Rick Wagoner who, in 2006, accused the Japanese government of artificially weakening its currency to blunt competition from U.S. automakers. Or he may have been taking after former Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca, who, in his 1985 autobiography, complained for the umpteenth time that again Japanese automakers and banks worked together to keep the yen cheap so their exports would be more attractive. Their complaints haven't been all that effective. In case you haven't noticed, Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), & Co. are still here and are still stronger than ever.

4.喜欢骂日元

福特公司（Ford Motor）首席执行官艾伦•穆拉利最近称日本为“货币操纵者”，还说正是疲弱的日元导致美国汽车厂商的利润削减。他说这番话前可能已和通用汽车（General Motors）前任首席执行官里克•瓦格纳通过气了。后者曾于2006年指责日本政府通过人为削弱日元来抵制美国汽车厂商的竞争。或者他可能是在效法克莱斯勒前首席执行官李•艾柯卡，这位先生曾在他1985年出版的自传中无数次抱怨称，日本汽车厂商和银行联手打压日元，保持其汽车出口的竞争力。他们的这些怨言好像一直就没什么作用。大家也都看到了，丰田汽车（Toyota）和本田汽车（Honda）不仅还在美国好好待着，还比以前更强大了。

5.销量靠批发

如果大家只看新闻标题，难免会认为日本人是靠利润微薄的批量销售来推高销量的，而底特律三巨头却正壮士断腕般地削减批量销售。比如“车界内幕”（The Truth About Cars）这个博客就称：“七月份，底特律三大厂商都称批量销售额下降，而日产汽车（Nissan）、丰田汽车（Toyota）和现代-起亚汽车（Hyundai-Kia）的批量销售额却大幅上升。”不过，如果你继续读下去就会发现，底特律车企是从峰值上逐渐下滑的，而这些亚洲厂商却是从很低的基数开始逐步上升的。比如七月份福特有22%的批量销售，而丰田仅有5%。向租车公司批量销售这一做法一直就饱受诟病，它会影响新车销售，也会损害残值。新的劳动合同被认为有助于底特律车企逐渐减少批量销售，但积习难改、本性难移啊。

6. Fleeing high labor costs

Detroit has spent decades searching for the low-wage nirvana that will allow it to cut production costs. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) thought it had found an answer in 2002 when it took over the assets of the bankrupt Daewoo and started building small cars in Korea. Now the Asian nation accounts for more than 20% of GM's total production, and more than 80% of those cars, like the Chevrolet Cruze and Buick Encore, are exported. But here comes word that GM wants to start phasing out Korean production, partly because labor costs there have risen sharply. No word on where it might go next in search of cheap labor -- Southeast Asia? Sub-Saharan Africa? GM seems to have learned little from mighty Volkswagen, which remains firmly tied to its manufacturing complex in high-wage Germany.

6.人工贪便宜

几十年来，底特律这些车企一直都在寻找工资低廉的天堂，因为这可以让它们大幅削减生产成本。2002年，通用汽车接管破产的大宇公司（Daewoo）的资产时，就认为自己已经成功找到了这种天堂，同时开始在韩国生产小型车。如今通用在亚洲国家的产量占到其总产量的20%还多，而像雪佛兰科鲁兹和别克昂克拉这样的车80%都用于出口。不过有传言称，通用汽车准备在韩国逐步减产，部分原因就在于那儿的人工成本上涨太快了。目前还不清楚它下一步准备去哪儿找更便宜的劳动力——南亚？撒哈拉以南非洲？通用似乎从强大的大众汽车（Volkswagen）学到了一点教训：德国虽然工资很高，但大众始终固守着它在那里的生产基地。

7. Buffing diesels' image

"Marketers work to dispel 'smoky and loud' image of diesel engines" reads the headline in the August 12, 2013 issue of Automotive News. That's not to be confused with the assertion that turned up on the web on Jan. 29, 2010 that "Because of the advances in technology, loud and smoky diesels are a thing of the past." Or the October 2010 statement on Car Review.com that "for many years, diesel engines have gotten a bad rap for being smoky and loud." I guess that "smoky and loud" image is a hard one to shake.

7.替柴油机抹粉

《汽车新闻》2013年8月12日的头条新闻标题是：“营销人员努力消除柴油发动机‘呛人而吵闹’的形象”。这是不能与2010年1月29日在网上流传的那个说法相混淆的，当时的说法是“因为技术进步，吵闹而呛人的柴油发动机已经是明日黄花了”。这和2010年10月在“汽车评论网”（Car Review.com）上的那个说法“多年来，柴油发动机一直就有呛人而吵闹的坏名声”也不能混同。不过我想，“呛人而吵闹”的形象可不是那么容易打破的。

8. Rebuilding Detroit with bricks and mortar

There's more going round and round in Detroit than at just the auto companies. The bankrupt city is getting a downtown makeover with renovated office buildings, a $600 million hockey arena, and construction of a three-mile light rail train line on Woodward Ave. All that real estate investment is expected to spark the revitalization of a troubled city; it's the "If you build it, they will come" theory. But that's not what happened in the 1970s when Henry Ford II erected the Renaissance Center (now GM's corporate headquarters), the 1980s when large developments were built on the waterfront, the 1990s that saw Grand Circus Park and the New Center area get a lift, or the 00's, when the Tigers and Lions moved into new downtown stadiums and three casinos went up. Detroit has plenty of real estate; what is hasn't been able to do is attract the people needed to fill it up. That won't happen until the city begins to deliver municipal services on a consistent basis, rationalizes its tax base, and finds an antidote to its poisonous racial politics. And that may be a tough lesson to learn.

8.大兴土木，再造底特律

不光是底特律三巨头会故伎重演，底特律这座城市也在一再上演同样的故事。这座目前已经宣告破产的城市正在对主城区进行改头换面的大改造：那儿的办公楼被翻修一新，建了一座耗资6亿美元的曲棍球场，还在伍德沃德大道上建了一条长达三英里的轻轨线。这么多大手笔的房地产投资都是旨在让这座深陷困境的城市重新焕发活力，它秉持的理念是：“只要造好房子，人们自然会来”。不过，在底特律的历史上，类似的做法却一再证明只是一厢情愿、自欺欺人：早在20世纪70年代，亨利•福特二世就建起了复兴中心（现在成了通用汽车的总部），80年代滨水区也曾经大兴土木，90年代大马戏公园和新中心区同样经历过了大规模的改造，21世纪初底特律老虎队和狮子队搬进了全新的市中心体育馆，还建了三座赌场。底特律的这种高楼大厦比比皆是，但就是没法吸引人们来安居乐业。只有这座城市首先能持续提供市政服务，合理收税，同时设法解决贻害不浅的种族政策，之后，它才有可能聚集人气。而想做到这一点，可能还需要吸取更深刻的教训。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远