What happens when gold may no longer glitter enough to stave off the financial apocalypse?

    The precious metal, a big beneficiary at quantitative easing's outset as investors sought a hedge against possible inflation, has been steadily declining. During the first round of QE in December 2008, the price of gold was $837.50 an ounce. The precious metal's longer term run-up kicked into overdrive, with the price peaking in September 2011 at $1,922. Of course, this ultimately represented a dependency trap -- in April the price dropped 30%, in part on fears that QE would be coming to an end. Today, gold sits at around $1,371, a 20% drop in six months.

    QE was only one contributing factor to gold's run-up. Broadly perceived as a safe store of value in uncertain times, gold benefited from the sense of instability and looming disaster that has persisted since the financial crisis. Inversely, gold's downward trend has corresponded with a tentative but broad-based sense that things are inching back to normalcy.

    For one small group of investors, this return to normal places them in a new, confounding position. While a worried mainstream saw gold as a hedge against short-term instability, the past five years have seen huge exposure, particularly in America, for a set of ideas that sees gold as a protection against the total collapse of the financial system as we know it. Probably the most well-known proponent of this viewpoint is former Fox News personality Glenn Beck, who has persistently warned of the inevitability of hyperinflation, lawlessness, and bread riots in the wake of QE and other Fed initiatives to inject liquidity and expand the money supply.

    Starting in 2008 and with little respite since, Beck has kept up a drumbeat of parallels between American monetary policy and disaster scenarios such as Weimar Germany. Whether by correlation or causation, Beck also happens to be heavily sponsored (both in his Fox News days and now in his internet enterprise) by Goldline, a company selling gold coins. Alex Jones, a goldbug and conspiracy theorist only slightly less influential than Beck, is sponsored by Midas Resources Inc., which ... well, guess.

    Though Glenn Beck and Alex Jones are in many ways fringe figures, they have significant followings, and their goldbug ideas are part of an even larger pattern of thought that encompasses genuinely influential groups including Ron Paul's Libertarian wing of the U.S. Republican Party, and the even more powerful Tea Party faction. "Anyone who is not looking at a financial collapse of the United States right now is not looking at our debt and the inability of our government to rein in costs. It's no longer a case of if, but a case of when," says Norman Cillo, a member of the Tampa Bay Tea Party. With that scenario in mind, gold looks like a pretty good bet, no matter what the market is doing.

    Gold's longtime nickname, "God's Money," captures some of the faith these goldbugs put in the yellow stuff as a life raft for the most extreme, yet imaginable, scenarios. For most of the last five years, this has been an easy enough proposition -- doomsayers could have their apocalypse and profit from it too, watching gold prices rise in dollar terms while also being confident in the commodity's value in the lawless, feral world they think Ben Bernanke's monetary policy is laying the groundwork for.

    For the last six months, though, things have been more complicated -- while goldbugs of all sorts have taken a haircut, the most extreme true believers now have to watch the value of their gold in dollar terms collapse, while sticking with the idea that the real collapse will be that of the entire U.S. economy in the near future, after which they'll have the last laugh. It's a reminder that gold, whatever its transcendent value, remains entwined in a very human economic system in the here and now, and that holding on to rocks has an opportunity cost.

    如果光彩耀眼的黄金再也不足以抵御金融灾难，情况会怎样呢？

    美联储实施量化宽松之初，黄金是主要的受益者，原因是投资者纷纷设法防范可能出现的通货膨胀。随后，黄金价格开始持续稳步下跌。2008年12月首轮量化宽松期间，金价为每盎司837.50美元（5167.38元人民币）。长时间的上涨造成金价过高，2011年9月黄金价格在1922美元（11858.74元人民币）见顶。当然，这最终形成了依赖性陷阱——到今年4月份金价下跌了30%，部分原因是人们担心量化宽松行将结束。目前，黄金价格约为每盎司1371美元（8459.07元人民币），六个月来下滑了20%。

    量化宽松只是金价上涨的原因之一。由于人们广泛认为局势不明朗时黄金有保值作用，金融危机以来一直存在的不安全感和灾难迫近感推动了金价上涨。反过来讲，金价呈下降趋势时人们必然普遍认为情况已经开始恢复正常。

    对一小部分投资者来说，情况恢复正常让他们陷入了另一种惶恐状态。忧心忡忡的主流群体把黄金视为针对短期不稳定局面的套期保值手段，在过去五年中则出现了一系列新的观点，认为黄金可以防范我们所知的整个金融体系的全面崩溃。受此影响，人们建立了大量黄金仓位，特别是在美国。这种观点的最出名的支持者可能就是福克斯新闻频道（Fox News）前主持人格伦•贝克。他一直警告说，美联储通过量化宽松等措施为经济注入流动性并增加货币供应量后，恶性通胀、犯罪以及食品价格上涨引发的不稳定局面将不可避免。

    从2008年开始，贝克就几乎一刻不停地将美国货币政策和魏玛共和国等灾难性事件进行类比。无论是本来就有关联还是因此结缘，贝克碰巧得到了金币销售公司Goldline的大力资助（之前在福克斯新闻频道以及如今在他的互联网公司都是如此）。阴谋论者亚历克斯•琼斯也是黄金的狂热信徒，他的影响力只比贝克小一点儿，而资助琼斯的公司是Midas Resources……至于这家公司从事的业务，大家自己去猜吧。

    尽管从很多角度来说格伦•贝克和亚历克斯•琼斯都是边缘人物，但他们都拥有大批拥趸。他们对黄金的狂热属于同一种思维模式，而这种思维模式覆盖了一些真正有影响力的群体，比如以罗恩•保罗为首的美国共和党自由派，以及甚至更为强大的茶党团体。坦帕湾茶党成员诺曼•希罗说：“现在还没想到美国金融系统将要崩溃的人对我们的债务以及政府无力控制成本的事实都视而不见。这已经不再是会不会的问题，而是什么时候发生的问题。”有了这种想法，无论市场走势如何，黄金看来都是一个相当好的投资对象。

    长期以来，黄金一直被称为“上帝的货币”。这也在一定程度上表明，这些黄金狂热者相信，在非常极端、但仍然可以想象的情况下，黄金就是他们的救生筏。五年来，这种观点在大部分时间里都浅显易懂——灾难预言者也许会见到他们所说的巨大灾害，而且还可能从中获利。他们可以看着黄金的美元价格节节攀升，同时对黄金在一个缺少法制的野蛮世界里的价值深信不疑。在他们看来，本•伯南克的货币政策正在为这样一个世界打下基础。

    但最近六个月，情况变得更为复杂——各种各样的黄金狂热者都蒙受了损失，其中最信赖黄金的那些人现在不得不看着自己所持黄金的美元价值大幅下跌，同时还要坚持认为覆盖整个美国经济的真正崩溃即将到来，而且这会让他们成为笑到最后的人。这种情况告诉我们，无论黄金的价值有多大，它依然和当前人们的经济体系紧密交织在一起，而且一直持有黄金会产生机会成本。

    But it seems the decline of gold has had little or no impact on the beliefs of the most prominent extreme goldbugs. "None. Zero, zip, zilch," says Alan Madison, executive producer of National Geographic's Doomsday Preppers reality show. "Gold for them has an inherent value that is independent of market fluctuations. They do watch [the market price of gold], but mostly just for chances to purchase." Which ultimately is what separates the goldbugs from more run-of-the-mill gold bulls.

    This indifference to the market is being fed by goldbug-friendly media and analysis, which has insisted that the decline is irrelevant, a buying opportunity, the product of a government conspiracy, or some mix of the three. Relying heavily on the broader conspiracist mindset that defines him, Beck declared after the gold crash that "something doesn't smell right," further saying that "This is collusion. It is keeping the price of gold down for the sovereign central banks so they can store the gold." Some have totally dismissed the losses by insisting on the difference between "paper" gold and "real" gold, an important distinction for goldbugs of the prepper variety. "They all take physical delivery, they don't invest in [gold] derivatives or funds," says Madison. Finally and most paradoxically, some goldbugs have said that the gold crash is a harbinger of deflation, a defeat for Fed policies and therefore -- presto change-o -- a validation of their underlying thesis that centralized policy can't control the economy, and we should all prepare for Thunderdome.

    This is all particularly amazing since, not only has the daily price of gold plummeted, but the hyperinflation it is supposed to hedge against hasn't shown its face, even after five years of QE. In fact, we haven't even seen slightly above-average inflation. According to some analysts, this is simply because it has had minimal effect on consumer spending.

    Going forward, signs for gold in the mainstream market remain mixed. QE is likely headed for a taper, even if we're not yet sure whether that's in the near or middle term. This means gold's function as an inflation hedge for the broader market is likely to become less relevant. But apocalyptic goldbugs seem genuinely unconcerned with mere dollars if it makes it possible for them to hang onto more gold. According to Madison, "This recovery is temporal, elusive to them. It's based on us borrowing money, as far as they're concerned." Inflation is still the bugaboo: "The folks here recognize that the Fed's digital printing of money is reducing the value of any non-hard asset. We realize that property, precious metals, and commodities will only increase in value while currency will drop," says Tea Party member Cillo.

    It's difficult to quantify the relationship between these ideas and the real market. Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, and Ron Paul have huge combined audiences, but these are individual rather than institutional investors. And obviously, if they were market drivers in themselves, their unsubtle insistence on gold as the only decent store of value would have kept the dollar price trending upwards indefinitely as the economy itself shut down in the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy. By contrast, as mainstream economists have pointed out, the current scenario reflects increasing faith in the overall economy and a hopeful shift of capital "from rocks to stocks" -- toward support for constructive human endeavors.

    不过，看来金价下跌对那些最著名的黄金狂热者几乎甚至根本没有影响。国家地理频道（National Geographic）真人秀节目《末日生存者》（Doomsday Preppers）执行制片人艾伦•麦迪逊就说：“一点儿影响也没有，总之影响就是零。对他们来说，黄金的内在价值和市场波动无关。他们确实会查看（市场上的黄金价格），但大多都是在寻找买进机会。”这就是黄金狂热者和一般黄金多方的最终区别。

    和这些黄金狂热者关系良好的媒体和分析师都在宣扬这种无视市场的做法，两者一直在使用的说辞包括金价跌幅很小，是买入机会，是政府阴谋所致，或者这三条理由的任意组合。贝克非常依赖政府阴谋论心态，这也成了他自己的标志。金价暴跌后，贝克宣称“情况有些不对”，进而又说“这是有人串通一气。让金价处于下行状态，以便中央银行储备黄金。”有些人表示自己没有蒙受任何损失，他们坚持说“纸”黄金和“实物”黄金不同，这是信奉末日生存理论的黄金狂热者的一个重要特点。麦迪逊指出：“他们都在谈实物交收，而且不投资（黄金）衍生产品或基金。”最后一点非常荒谬，一些黄金狂热者表示，金价暴跌是通缩的预兆，挫败了美联储的政策，因而印证了他们的核心观点，即集权式政策无法控制经济，而且我们所有人都应该为狂风暴雨的到来做好准备——其思路转换之快就像变魔术一样。

    这一点特别神奇，不光是因为黄金的日常价格暴跌，还因为本打算用黄金来抵御的恶性通胀也一直没有出现，甚至是在量化宽松实施了五年之后。实际上，我们甚至都没有看到稍高于平均水平的通胀率。据一些分析师讲，这就是因为量化宽松对消费支出的影响微乎其微。

    展望未来，主流市场对黄金发出的信号依然阴晴不一。量化宽松的规模可能会下降，只是我们还不能确定它将在短期还是中期内出现。对整个市场来说，它就意味着黄金的抗通胀功能可能会变得更不重要。但如果这能让他们更多地持有黄金，坚信大灾难就要到来的黄金狂热者似乎真的不在乎那几个美元。麦迪逊指出：“对他们来说，复苏是暂时的，也是难以实现的。他们的观点是，复苏要以我们进行借贷为基础。”通胀仍是他们眼中的妖魔鬼怪。茶党成员希罗称：“我们发现，只要不是硬资产，美联储的数字化印钞行为就会削弱其价值。我们知道，房地产、贵金属和大宗商品的价值只会上升，而货币的价值将下降。”

    这些想法和实际市场之间的关系很难量化。受格伦•贝克、亚历克斯•琼斯和罗恩•保罗影响的人非常多，但他们都是个人，而不是机构投资者。而且显而易见的是，如果他们就是左右市场的因素，在这些人不分青红皂白地坚持黄金是唯一可靠的保值手段的情况下，美元汇率就会一直呈上升趋势，原因是经济本身具有自我应验性。与之相反，正如主流经济学家所指出的，当前局势表明，人们对整体经济的信心正在增强，而且资本有希望出现“从实物到股票”的转移，从而为人们的建设性活动提供支持。

    Even if they're not all that directly influential, investors can gain insight from these outsider ideologies -- the rigidity and doomsaying of the most extreme goldbugs is an opportunity for reflection on gold itself. The market price of gold on any given day is made up of a very small slice of industrial value combined with a huge helping of psychological premium -- the self-fulfilling prophecy that gold is the ultimate secure storehouse of value in uncertain times. According to Cullen Roche of the Orcam Financial Group, "There's an explicit premium built into the price of gold because it's always seen as an alternative to the fiat money system."

    But, as Preppers' Alan Madison is quick to point out, even that's not nearly as timeless as the likes of Glenn Beck and his attentive followers would like to think. "Gold, in their mind, is eternally useful as a trade item," he says. "Five hundred years ago it was salt, and suddenly it became gold. Or Whale blubber -- once that was used as a power source." Madison's not sure that gold's value would hold in the case of a real economic catastrophe.

    "It's more mythological than anything else."  

    即使影响没有那么直接，投资者仍然可以从这些局外人的想法中得到一些启发——最极端的黄金狂热者的顽固态度和灾难预言是解析黄金本身的一个机会。任何一个交易日的黄金市价都包括非常小的一部分工业价值和大量心理溢价——这让黄金在不稳定时期具有终极保值作用的理论成为现实。宏观投资研究机构Orcam Financial Group创始人卡伦•罗奇认为：“金价显然包含溢价，因为人们总是将它视为法定货币体系的替代品。”

    但就像艾伦•麦迪逊敏锐指出的那样，和格伦•贝克等人及其信众的想法相比，就连这种观点都算不上永恒。麦迪逊说：“在他们看来，黄金永远具有贸易功能。五百年前具有这种功能的盐，但突然就变成了黄金。鲸油或许也有这种功能，因为人们曾用它来产生动力。”麦迪逊不能断定如果真的出现经济崩溃，黄金是否还会有价值。

    “这比其他任何事物都更难以捉摸。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie