For China, 2013 is becoming the year of the credible shrinking GDP growth target. Earlier in the year, the old 8% norm was shaved down to an official estimate of 7.5% by China's State Council. Last week, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei moved that to 7%, and said an even lower number was possible.

    China's slowdown is real -- but relative. While President Xi Jinping has told China's officials to worry less about GDP and more about quality of life, investors still focus on the crude indication. The official target of a 7.5%increase would already have created China's slowest growth since 1990. The official acceptance of a lower number shows that the old received wisdom -- anything below 8% puts China at risk of rising unemployment and social unrest -- has been discarded.

    For China-watchers, 6% growth sounds bizarre. It was not that long ago that double digits were normal. But by the standards of the other middle-income countries, China is still doing exceptionally well. The International Monetary Fund expects 3% GDP growth this year in both Latin America and the Middle East.

    It has three causes. First, demand for exports from China is slowing. June's 3% decline is especially weak, but the average increase over the last twelve months is the slowest rate since the beginning of 2010. A strong currency hurts, as does weak demand. But as China gets richer, it's natural that the currency rises and that exports based on cheap labor fade away.

    Second, economic gravity is catching up. The Chinese workforce is no longer increasing and the pace of urbanization is slowing because so many people have already left the farms. Of more concern is the decreasing efficiency of investment. A few years ago, only one yuan of investment was needed to add a yuan to GDP. Now it takes almost four yuan.

    Finally, the authorities are not trying to fight gravity. The government knows about stimulus; it did a huge one in 2009. With a fiscal deficit of just 2% of GDP and total control of the big banks, it has the means. It also controls the statistics, so can basically report whatever number suits. Clearly, the authorities are comfortable with lower GDP growth numbers.

    China's growth has been fueled by borrowing. But there's no sign that the slowdown has been created by a credit crunch. The official effort to rein in "shadow banking," loans that do not appear on banks' books, may hurt; and total social financing, the government's favored measure of new money pumped into the economy, has come down recently. But the six-month average of social financing, a good measure of what's affecting GDP today, is rising.

    2013年正成为中国稳妥下调GDP增长目标的一年。年初，国务院将原先8%的标准正式下调至7.5%。上周，财政部长楼继伟又将这一数字降至7%，而且说增长水平甚至有可能会更低。

    中国经济确实在减速——但这只是相对而言。中国国家主席习近平已经告诫各级官员少操心GDP，多关注民生质量，但投资者仍然把注意力集中在这个笼统的指标上。7.5%的官方经济增长目标已经是20世纪90年以来的最低水平。接受较低的经济增长速度表明中国政府已经摒弃了原先公认的理论，也就是经济增速低于8%可能会造成失业人数上升和社会局势不稳。

    从观察人士的角度而言，6%的经济增长率对中国来说显得很不寻常。不久之前中国的正常发展速度还在10%以上。但按照其他中等收入国家的标准，中国的经济形势仍然格外的好。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，今年拉美和中东的GDP增幅均为3%。

    中国经济增速放缓有三方面的原因。首先，对中国出口商品的需求正增长得越来越慢。6月份中国出口额下降了3%，表现特别低迷，过去12个月的平均增长率也处于2010年初以来的最低水平。人民币升值也带来了不利影响，需求疲软也是如此。但随着中国富裕水平的提高，本币升值是正常现象，以廉价劳动力为基础的出口则逐渐消失。

    其次，经济引力的影响正在逐渐增强。中国的劳动力群体已经停止了增长，城镇化步伐也开始放慢，原因是已经有这么多的人离开了农村。更让人担心的是投资效率的下降。几年前，GDP增长一块钱只需要一块钱的投资，现在则需要差不多四块钱。

    最后，中国政府不再设法和经济引力抗衡。政府对刺激措施已经有了了解，2009年中国曾经大举保增长、促内需。财政赤字只占中国GDP 的2%，大型银行完全在政府的控制之下，这种情况下中国政府手里有牌可打。经济数据也在政府的掌握之中，因此基本上已公布的数字都很合适。显然，政府对GDP增长率下滑心里有数。

    中国的经济增长一直靠借贷推动。但还没有迹象表明是信贷紧缩造成了目前的经济放缓。政府对“影子银行”，也就是银行表外放贷活动的整治可能会让经济受到打击；作为受到政府青睐的新增流动性衡量指标，社会融资规模最近出现下降。但能更好地体现GDP所受影响的6个月平均社会融资规模仍在上升。

    Still, there's a monetary problem. Because profitability is falling and leverage has risen, companies have to put more of their profits into servicing debt and less into investment. The government does not seem too bothered. Officials seem to have learned the lesson of the last stimulus: mandated mega-lending leads to wastage and recklessness.

    The key issue is not pace of growth, but the effect on society. There is a good argument that by that standard China's recent growth has been too fast. The all-out pursuit of more production led to grave environmental degradation and probably encouraged a lax attitude towards corruption.

    A slower-growing economy could allow for more investment in things that make China a happier, healthier place over the long run. Those would include cleaner production, genuine innovation and human capital. But some recently announced projects -- the world's largest free-standing building, the longest under-sea tunnel, a flamboyant space program -- suggest old habits die hard.

    Investors' talk of a hard landing in China is unhelpful. Even GDP growth of 2% a year would be quite acceptable, as long as employment remained adequate and social unrest low. Conversely, 7% growth with a spike in labor-related protests and bankruptcies would be tough.

    Perhaps the best test of a hard landing is whether the authorities appear to remain in control. Deducing that is largely a question of parsing political rhetoric. It's encouraging that Premier Li Keqiang says growth hasn't fallen below the minimum acceptable rate, whatever that is.

    What seems most likely is that policymakers are biding their time. The tools they have -- forced lending, currency depreciation, vast infrastructure mandates -- are powerful but they are also rough, and come with uncertain consequences. For now, the mentality of "best left alone" looks about right.

    此外，货币层面也有问题。由于盈利能力减弱以及负债率上升，企业被迫将更多利润用于偿还债务，用于投资的利润随之减少。但政府似乎并不太担心。政府官员看来已经从上一次的刺激措施中吸取了教训，那就是强制性大规模放贷会导致浪费和冒进。

    关键问题并不是经济增长率，而是经济对社会的影响。有一个很有力的观点是，按照这个标准，近来中国的经济增长一直过快。全力以赴地追求更高的产出造成环境严重退化，而且可能促使人们对腐败持放纵态度。

    经济增速放慢或许会让更多的投资用于提高中国的长期幸福水平和健康水平。其中包括减少生产污染，真正实现创新以及创造人力资本。但最近公布的一些项目，比如世界上最大的单体建筑、最长的海底隧道以及万众瞩目的空间项目，都表明中国积习难改。

    投资者对中国经济硬着陆的探讨毫无用处。只要能保持充分就业以及比较稳定的社会局势，就算GDP每年只增长2%也完全可以接受。相反，如果劳资纠纷事件和破产现象激增，就算经济增长率达到7%也依然问题重重。

    或许测试经济是否硬着陆的最好方法就是看政府是否还能掌控局势。在这方面进行推演基本上无异于玩一场政治文字游戏。中国总理李克强表示，经济增速还没有跌到可接受的最低水平以下，无论这个可接受的最低水平是多少，这句话都让人备受鼓舞。

    看起来目前最有可能的情况是决策层正在耐心等待。他们掌握着强有力的手段，比如强制性放贷、本币贬值以及大规模推动基建，但这些手段都很粗放，所产生的结果都存在不确定性。目前，抱着“顺其自然”的心态看来比较合适。(财富中文网)

    译者：Charlie