日本电动汽车业后继乏力
Michael Fitzpatrick | 2013-06-05 13:05
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日本在世界上是电动汽车研发的急先锋,然而,日本本土的消费者却往往会忽略全电动汽车,转而选择混合动力汽车。一方面是因为它的价格,另一方面则是因为它的电池续航能力和充电站数量不足。日本福岛核电站之后,有些消费者甚至认为电动车“有政治问题”。
日本虽然在开发电动汽车上走在世界前列,但现在很大程度上已经不再迷恋所谓的电动汽车了。 这并不是说日本人不关心二氧化碳排放量。日本已经花了大笔经费研发内燃机引擎的替代产品,同时日本的混合动力汽车销量笑傲全球。去年,丰田汽车(Toyota)在日本卖出的40%的汽车都是混合动力车型,不可谓不惊人。 但是,尽管日本政府慷慨地提供了购买电动汽车的补贴,而且甚至连美国产的电动汽车特斯拉(Tesla)都用上了日本的创新技术,但是日本车主们却觉得购买电动汽车很不划算,甚至觉得电动汽车有“政治问题”。 这是为什么?麦肯锡咨询公司(McKinsey)近日发布的一份报告指出,三分之一的日本电动汽车车主表示,他们再也不会买电动汽车了。理由包括:电动车车价太高,电费上涨,以及找充电的地方很麻烦等等。而最新一个让人们讨厌电动汽车的理由是,很多人觉得,这些电动汽车与导致福岛核泄露的那家电力公司之间存在某种联系。 根据当地的一家周刊报道,在大阪有一家由50辆日产聆风电动车(Nisan Leaf EV)组成的全电动出租车公司。福岛核泄露事故发生前,这家公司的服务一度很受欢迎。但是灾难发生后,乘客们视电力公司为耻,因此这家出租车公司的业务也枯竭了。一位出租车司机告诉这家周刊:“生意糟透了,他们的收入还不到普通出租车的一半,对电动出租车的需求已经结束了。” 在电动汽车上下注最多的人可能当属日产公司的CEO卡洛斯•高森。不过据一位分析师表示,日产聆风电动车目前只卖出了6万台,其中还有一半是在日本售出的,表明人们悄悄地忽略了电动汽车,转而追捧更加热门的混合动力汽车,比如丰田普锐斯(Toyota Prius)。日产公司仍然表示,希望在2016年之前卖出150万台聆风电动车。聆风的首席设计师门田英稔表示,聆风面临的最大问,仍然是车主的“里程焦虑症”和电池容量问题。他说:“如果你问聆风的车主,他们会告诉你,他们想要更长的续航里程。所以不管我们对这款车做出怎样的改进,不论是电池,还是系统——尤其是电池,我们都在开发新的方法,使它超过现有的容量。” 瑞士信贷公司(Credit Suisse)分析师高桥一才表示,较高的价格和有限的续航里程对少数既有钱又热心环保的日本人并不算什么,但是尽管日本政府向电动车提供了购车补贴,普通人家面对28,000美元的车价还是望而却步。他说:“电动汽车有一些基本的局限,比如成本、续航里程,以及充电站的缺乏等等。但是最重要的是,日本大地震之后,电价变得非常昂贵,会刺激消费者的情绪。” | Japan -- a leader in the development of electrically powered vehicles -- has largely failed to fall for so-called EVs. Not that the Japanese don't care about CO2 emissions. Millions of dollars have been spent by the state to promote greener alternatives to the internal combustion engine, while hybrid car purchases remain the highest in the world. Last year a whopping 40% of Toyota's (TM) sales in Japan were hybrids. But despite generous government subsidies to buy EV and Japanese innovations that power even the U.S.-made Tesla (TSLA), Japanese motorists are starting to see them as costly and even, oddly, politically incorrect. Why? A report by McKinsey consultancy says up to a third of Japanese customers for EVs say they would not buy again. They were put off by their high price, higher electric bills, and the considerable bother of locating places to charge their cars says the survey. But the new reason to hate the vehicles now is they are tainted by association with the electric power company that suffered and, in many minds, helped cause the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns. According to one local weekly an all-electric taxi service in Osaka with 50 Nisan Leaf EVs was a hit before the nuclear disaster. Then, as the crisis developed and passengers came to view power suppliers with contempt, demand dried up. "Business stinks," one driver told the weekly. "Their takings are less than half that of regular cars. Demand for EV taxis is over." Arguably the biggest bet on EVs is by Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan (NSANY). But with only 60,000 of its Leaf EVs sold -- half of those in Japan -- the vehicle is being quietly shunned in favor of more popular hybrids like Toyota's Prius, say analysts. Nissan says it still hopes to sell 1.5 million of its green-mobiles by 2016. Motorists' "range-anxiety" and battery capacity remain top issues for Nissan, says its chief vehicle engineer Hidetoshi Kadota. "If you talk to Leaf owners, they want more range. So, whatever we can do to change the car, the battery, the system -- especially the battery, we are developing ways to improve it beyond its current capacity." High prices and limited range haven't deterred a minority of rich Japanese eco-enthusiasts, but ordinary motorists have balked at the $28,000 price tag even after the state eco subsidy, says autos analyst Issai Takahashi of Credit Suisse, Tokyo. "There are basic constraints such as cost, range, and lack of recharging stations. But on top of that, after the quake, electricity is getting very expensive, which will drive the sentiment of consumers," he says. |
日本在福岛核泄露事故之后几乎关闭了全国的核电站,只留下两座继续运营。现在日本全国的电力主要依靠比核电价格更贵的火电。由于日本国内能源资源很少,加上弱势日元意味着进口能源的高成本,导致这些成本被转嫁到消费者身上。与此同时,电池技术也没有满足几年前的预期,电动汽车一次充满电虽然平均能跑200公里,但仍然无法满足大多数人的需求。需求的下降意味着丰田等公司的研发中心必须要降低电池开发投入。 专门研究日本科技的专家泰利•劳埃德指出,即便在前几年日元强势时期,也没有对电动汽车的发展产生帮助。他说:“日本有一些非常有前景的电池技术,如果不是强势日元导致夏普(Sharp)、松下(Panasonic)等公司分散了精力,这些技术可能还会更先进。” 一些专家表示,便宜、实用的电池要想用在电动汽车上,可能还得要好几年的时间。与此同时,有些人正在寻找替代方法:日本沣桥科技大学(Toyohashi University of Technology)的一支研究团队已经成功地将电力穿过10厘米厚的混凝土进行传递,未来的汽车有可能在路上行驶的时候就能充电。关西大学(Kansai University)科学与技术部主任石川雅史则表示:“在日本,在限速80公里以下的高速公路或其它道路上,如果司机把速度降低一点,那么你在路上行驶的时候就可能给汽车充电。我认为这种技术有必要。” 日本还远远没有放弃电动汽车技术。日本特许厅的一份调查显示,去年有70%的与电动汽车技术有关的专利都是由日本科学家注册的。其中很多创新都围绕着燃料电池技术的研发,它比纯粹的插电式电动汽车提供了更加令人兴奋的可能。 丰田计划在2015年向市场投放一款燃料电池汽车。为了实现这个目标,丰田正在投入数十亿美元资金打造这款产品。与此同时,日本政府也在出资建立给燃料电池汽车补充燃料的基础设施,令插电式电动汽车的生产商随时都要担心燃料电池汽车何时会追赶上来。聆风这样的常规电动汽车除非在短时间内明显改善售价和电池性能,否则它们在汽车史上可能只是昙花一现。(财富中文网) 译者:朴成奎 | After Japan closed all of its nuclear power stations but two post-Fukushima, the nation's electric power now comes from dearer-than-nuclear, fossil-burning thermal stations. With few domestic energy resources, a weaker yen has meant higher costs for imported energy, which are now being passed onto consumers. Battery technology, meanwhile, has not met the promises expected a few years ago, making the average reach of a fully charged car -- about 200 kilometeres -- inadequate for most. Poor demand, in turn, meant that R&D centers like those at Toyota cut back on battery development, say analysts. Nor did a super-charged yen help over the last few years, points out Japanese tech pundit Terri Lloyd. "There are some very promising battery technologies out there, which I think would be more advanced if Sharp, Panasonic, and others didn't have the high yen consuming their attention." The development of cheap, practicable batteries for EVs is still years away say some experts. Some are looking for alternatives: A team from the Toyohashi University of Technology has managed to pass electricity through 10 centimeters of concrete, potentially enabling cars to charge while they drive. "In Japan, along highways and other roads where the speed limit is about 80 km per hour, if one were to reduce speed a little, charging could occur while driving through the lanes," says Masashi Ishikawa, Director of the Science and Technology think tank at Kansai University. "I think that kind of technology is necessary." Japan is far from giving up on EVs completely, however. About 70% of patents for such cars and "electric propulsion vehicles" were filed by Japanese applicants last year, according to a Japan Patent Office survey. Much innovation centers on the development of energy-generating fuel cells as a greener proposition that offer more exciting possibilities compared to plug-in EVs. Toyota, aiming to have a fuel cell car on the market by 2015, is spending billions on their creation. Meanwhile, the Japanese government is helping build the infrastructure needed to fuel them, giving the plug-in builders something to worry about in their rearview mirrors. Unless regular EVs like the Leaf see a massive increase in price and battery performance soon, they could end up as just a blip in transport history. |
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