财富中文网 >> 理财

高盛CEO对欧洲判断失误

分享: [双语阅读]

欧洲对经济的拼命缝补修复,迷惑了金融界一些最聪明的人士,包括高盛CEO布兰克梵,他们都确信欧元区这次一定能幸存下来。但几乎所有的欧洲经济指标都严峻恶化,直指欧元区的崩溃。

    在上周六德国全国性报纸《星期日世界报》(Welt am Sonntag)刊登的访谈中,高盛(Goldman Sachs)CEO劳埃德•布兰克梵宣称欧元区解体的风险已经在去年消退。布兰克梵进一步说道,美国人一贯地低估了欧洲人想要“建立一个团结的欧洲”的决心,但“我不会犯同样的错误”。

    布兰克梵是怎么想的?欧洲经济的脆弱健康状况从去年春季起就已经陷入危险境地。这使欧元这一欧洲通用货币面临前所未有的危险。欧盟官员和国家元首们的团结声明,对成员国根本缺陷的拼命缝补遮挡,甚至迷惑了金融界一些最聪明的人士,包括布兰克梵,他们都确信欧元区这次能够幸免。

    几乎所有的欧洲经济指标都严峻恶化,直指欧元区的崩溃。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,欧元区17国的失业率从去年的11.4%骤升至今年的12.3%,创下新高。2013年西班牙和希腊的失业率均高达27%,未来两年内,在欧元区第二和第三大经济体的法国和意大利,失业率将达到约2%。

    以GDP衡量,欧元区经济正在不断萎缩,风险正向萧条倾斜。欧元区GDP在2011年仅增长1.4%,2012年下降0.6%,今年将继续萎缩——在这些陷入困境的经济体中,只有爱尔兰实现了增长。即使法国这个捍卫欧元的强国也蒙受了GDP缩水之苦。尽管实行了饱受诟病的“财政紧缩”政策,法国的巨额债务仍在持续增加。今年法国外债占GDP的92%,而2008年只有62%。意大利、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和希腊的外债占GDP比例则已经超过100%,西班牙正快速接近三位数。

    有这么多糟糕的数据,为什么多头还愈加相信欧元区能渡过难关?如果欧元区南部成员国会对他们僵化的劳动力市场进行根本性的结构改革,布兰克梵的观点才能说得通。但这并不是欧元区目前的主旋律。“欧元区成员国的竞争力问题远比债务问题严重,可这一点却被严重忽视,”卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon)著名经济学家艾伦•梅尔策说。

    在意大利、西班牙和法国,制造一辆车或一块钢板的“单位劳动力成本”远高于德国或荷兰,这对它们的出口来说无疑构成了重大打击。同时,它们还严重依赖来自德国和中国等低成本国家的进口产品。

    对此只有两种解决办法。经济疲弱的国家应大幅削减工资和退休金开支,针对限制性的用工规则进行改革,或使货币贬值。随着意大利和法国放弃养老金制度改革,第一种路径方面的进展极为令人失望。由于失业率上升,欧洲的单位劳动力成本有所下降,但单凭这一点还远远不足以提升它们的出口竞争力或有效减少进口。因为无法再借助本币贬值这一利器,欧元区国家在债务和经济下滑的泥潭里越陷越深。

    In an interview published last Saturday in the German national newspaper Welt am Sonntag (World on Sunday), Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein declared that the risk of a euro breakup has faded in the past year. Blankfein went on to argue that Americans typically underestimate the will of Europeans to "see through the creation of a united Europe," and that "I'm not going to make the same mistake myself."

    What is Lloyd Blankfein thinking? The health of Europe's fragile economies has taken agefahrhlich, German for perilous, turn since last spring. That puts the common currency in far greater danger than ever. The declarations of solidarity by European Union officials and heads of state, and a desperate patchwork of fixes that that only mask the members' basic weakness, are deluding the best financial minds, including Blankfein, into believing that the euro is virtually certain to survive.

    The shocking deterioration in practically every economic metric points to the opposite conclusion. Unemployment in the 17-nation eurozone will jump from 11.4% in 2012 to a record 12.3% this year, according to the most recent IMF projections. The jobless rate in Spain and Greece will reach 27% in 2013, while around 2% of workers in France and Italy, the zone's second and third-largest economies, will lose their paychecks over the next two years.

    Measured in GDP, the eurozone is now shrinking, and risks careening into a depression. After expanding 1.4% in 2011, the euro area retreated 0.6% in 2012 and will contract again this year, with only one of the troubled economies -- Ireland --showing any growth. Even France, long bulwark of the common currency, suffers dwindling output. Despite the much-vilified shift to "austerity," the mountainous debts continue to rise. This year, France's borrowings will reach 92% of GDP, versus 62% in 2008. For Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece, that figure already exceeds 100%, and Spain is fast approaching triple-digits.

    So given the dreadful numbers, why are the bulls gaining confidence that the euro will pull through? If the southern members were making fundamental, structural reforms to their rigid labor markets, the Blankfein view would make sense. But that's not the main theme in the eurozone. "The nations in the eurozone have a competitiveness problem far more than a debt problem, and it's been greatly underappreciated," notes Allan Meltzer, the renowned economist at Carnegie Mellon.

    In Italy, Spain and France, "unit labor costs," the wages and benefits required to produce a car or sheet of steel, are far higher than in Germany or the Netherlands. That's hammering their exports. At the same time, they're importing heavily from the lower-cost countries, from Germany to China.

    Only two solutions are possible. The weak nations need to radically reduce wages and pension costs, and reform restrictive work rules, or shift to cheaper currencies. Progress on the former has been extremely disappointing, with Italy and France already retreating on pension reform. Unit labor costs have fallen in response to rising joblessness, but not nearly enough to make their exports competitive or garner required reductions in imports. With the traditional safety valve of a falling currency no longer available, these nations are drifting further and further into debt and decline.


    雅典大学(University of Athens)雅尼斯•瓦鲁法克斯说,从基本面来看,看好欧洲的观点是完全站不住脚的。“这都只是烟幕,”瓦鲁法克斯说,“欧元区正走在瓦解的道路上。”他认为有关欧洲的前景正在大幅好转的幻觉建立在三个因素上。

    首先,所有的投资者都垂涎高收益率。这种对高收益率的追逐使得目前收益率处于4%左右的意大利或西班牙主权债券比整体收益率往往高出很多的一般债市要有吸引力得多。“垃圾级公司债如今大受追捧,而欧洲到处是垃圾级政府债,”瓦鲁法克斯说。投资者不愿长期持有这些主权债,但仍觉得把这些高票面收益率的债券握上几个月再卖掉不会有危险。

    第二个因素是允许希腊留在欧元区的意外决定。去年9月,德国总理安吉拉•默克尔访华寻求援助,为欧盟的一个银行业救助基金筹金。该基金旨在对行将倒闭的银行进行资本重组。中国政府同意出手救助,购买债券——条件是,据瓦鲁法克斯所说,将希腊留在欧元区。默克尔力挺希腊留在欧元区内,而围绕欧元区濒临瓦解的担忧情绪也随之消退。

    第三,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长马里奥•德拉吉承诺动用一切必要手段拯救欧元。德拉吉有效遏制了做空意大利或西班牙债券的交易。若短线投机者狙击这两国的债券,或是投资者出现恐慌情绪,德拉吉坚决表示要祭出新制定的直接货币交易计划(Outright Monetary Transactions plan,简称OMT),以不限量地收购主权债——进行将收益率推低。投机者应声撤退,西班牙和意大利国债承受的压力也随之减小。事实上,OMT并未动用,但它的潜在威力给当时动荡的主权债市场打了一剂定心针。

    这三个因素“冰封了金融界的危机”,瓦鲁法克斯说。但这些因素没能阻止从巴黎到马德里的工厂和店铺相继关张的危机。瓦鲁法克斯警告称:“随着经济形势的大陆板块漂移,发生危机动荡的可能性会越来越大。”

    使欧元瓦解成为可能(若不是必然)的因素是,整个南欧面临的不断加剧的信贷危机。意大利、西班牙和希腊的银行存款正流向德国,而且随着越来越多的公司破产,相关银行的资本也正在不断消失。因此,即使中小企业能筹措到资金,贷款成本也极高。“在德国,企业借贷资金利率为1.5%,而在南欧却高达7%,”瓦鲁法克斯说,况且企业获得资金极难。

    北欧充足的信贷和南欧匮乏的流动性形成了鲜明的对比。随着信贷的构造板块反向移动,欧元离崩溃越来越近。

    要预知经济灾难的触发因素和发生时间是不可能的,如同地震学家无法预测何时会发生地震。它可能会随着意大利或西班牙弱势政府的倒台而来临,或是随着另一波像上次希腊所遭受的银行挤兑潮而来临。

    让人吃惊的是,许多像布兰克梵这样的聪明人,在如此灾难性的数据面前仍选择看好欧元。别被表面的宁静所迷惑,欧元区有大麻烦。(财富中文网)

    译者:默默

    The euro-optimism is totally unjustified by the fundamentals, according to Yanis Varoufakis, an economist at the University of Athens. "It's all smoke and mirrors," says Varoufakis. "The eurozone is continuing on a path to disintegration." He credits three special factors with creating the illusion that that the euro's prospects are radically improving.

    First, investors everywhere covet high-yields. That makes the sovereign debt of Italy or Spain, yielding in the 4% range, far more attractive than in a typical market where overall rates are far higher. "Corporate junk bonds are a roaring trade, and Europe is full of government junk bonds," says Varoufakis. Investors don't want to hold those bonds for long, but still feel it's safe to grab the fat coupons for a few months, and then sell.

    The second dimension is the surprising decision allowing Greece to remain in the euro. Last September, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Bejing on a mission to raise money for an EU fund designed to recapitalize failing banks. The Chinese government agreed to buy bailout bonds -- with, according to Varoufakis, the proviso that Greece remain in the eurozone. Merkel strongly argued for keeping Greece in the fold, and fears that the eurozone was near collapse receded.

    Third, Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, pledged to do everything necessary to save the euro. Draghi effectively promised to decimate traders betting against Italian or Spanish debt. The instant speculators attacked those bonds, or investors turned fearful, Draghi vowed to deploy the newly-created Outright Monetary Transactions plan (OMT) to purchase unlimited volumes of sovereign debt -- and push to hold yields back down. The speculators retreated, and so did the pressure on Spanish and Italian bonds. The OMT hasn't been activated, but its potential power created stability in the then-volatile sovereign bond markets.

    Those three factors "put ice on the crisis on the monetary sector," says Varoufakis. But they do nothing to stem the crisis that's closing factories and stores from Paris to Madrid. "The continental plates are shifting, creating an even greater possibility of an earthquake," he warns.

    What makes a euro collapse probable, if not inevitable, is the deepening credit crunch across southern Europe. Banks in Italy, Spain and Greece are losing deposits to Germany, and their capital is vanishing as more and more corporate customers become insolvent. Hence, small and medium-sized businesses are finding it extremely expensive to borrow, if they can find funding at all. "In Germany, companies are borrowing at 1.5%," says Varoufakis. "In southern Europe, it's costing them 7%." And that's if they can get financing.

    The ample credit in northern Europe stands in drastic contrast to the scarce liquidity in the south. As the tectonic plates of credit move in opposite directions, the euro moves closer and closer to fracture.

    It's impossible to predict what will unleash that economic cataclysm, or when it will happen -- any more than seismologists can forecast when an earthquake will occur. It could come with the fall of weak governments in Italy or Spain, or another run-on-the-bank scenario like the ones that have plagued Greece.

    What's amazing is that Blankfein and so many other smart people remain euro-fans when the data is so disastrous. Don't be deluded by the calm. The euro is in big trouble.

阅读全文

相关阅读:

  1. 欧元分家要趁早
  2. 法国成欧元危机不定时炸弹
  3. 巴菲特副手支持拆分大银行
  4. 解决小企业问题是欧洲脱困的关键
返回顶部