上周三，特斯拉汽车公司（Tesla Motors）发布了第一季度财报，引起了不小的轰动。不过这家豪华电动汽车制造商正继续遭到抨击。

    美国政府为特斯拉汽车的买家提供7500美元的税收减免，不过面对超过7万美元的特斯拉S型车，只有富人才享受得起这一优惠。美国能源部还给这家位于加州帕洛阿尔托的公司4.65亿美元的贷款担保，这样做相当于补贴了富有的特斯拉车主，却将纳税人的钱财置于危险之中，也就难怪许多人对政府的“补贴富人购车”政策表示愤怒。

    尽管如此，事实在于，将特斯拉卖给富人，也许是将来普及电动汽车的最好方式，也是美国摆脱对石油依赖的最好办法，这背后蕴含着国家安全和经济利益的因素。

    国内石油产量的增加，让美国经济收益颇丰。但美国耗油量太大，使得国家在原油价格面前脆弱不堪。由于生物燃料和燃料电池的发展步履蹒跚，电动汽车也许是最好的解决方法之一。

    不过电动汽车也面临着大量的艰难困阻。它们缺乏传统汽车拥有的规模经济和性能记录，也没有因为一百多年的市场竞争而使技术成本下降的经验。尽管实验室里的研究人员也许能实现技术上的重大突破，但若想让更多电动汽车驶上马路，还要解决如何高效地批量生产、如何拓展新的营销渠道、如何构建充电站网络以免车主燃料耗尽等关键问题。

    尽管如此，这些早期的车辆将成为利基市场的一部分，且以高价售卖。富人们自然成为其目标消费群体。

    以移动电话为例。摩托罗拉（Motorola）1982年发布的DynaTAC 8000X售价3995美元（相当于今天的近1万美元）。在1987年的电影《华尔街》（Wall Street）中，手持这部巨大手机的戈登•杰科代表了手机用户的普遍形象：富有、傲慢、无礼。到了1998年，诺基亚（Nokia）6160（20世纪90年代最流行的手机款式）价格为900美元，依然让大多数顾客望而却步。直到21世纪以来，手机行业实现了突飞猛进的进步，才不再被当作奢侈品，价格便宜到能让普通大众接受。

    手机花了20年左右的时间，从高端产品市场来到大众市场，而它本身也发生了改变。最初的摩托罗拉DynaTAC长逾一英寸，重逾两磅，电池仅能支持一个小时；而如今，你花上20美元，就能买到比你手掌还小、重量只有两盎司的手机。

    Tesla Motors made news last Wednesday when it posted its first quarterly profit. But the maker of luxury electric vehicles continues to come under fire.

    The U.S. government gives a $7,500 tax credit to anyone who buys one of its cars, but at more than $70,000 for a Model S sedan, only the rich can afford to benefit. The Department of Energy has also provided the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company with a $465 million loan guarantee, which boosts returns for Tesla's wealthy owners while putting taxpayers' money at risk. No wonder many are furious with Washington for "subsidizing cools cars for rich people."

    The truth, though, is that selling Teslas (TSLA) to wealthy people today may be the best way to get electric cars to everyone tomorrow, and for the United States to eventually reduce its dependence on oil, with all the national security and economic benefits that entails.

    The U.S. economy is making big gains as domestic oil production rises, but high U.S. oil use leaves the nation vulnerable to dangerous spikes in the price of crude. With biofuels and fuel cells both faltering, electric cars may be one of the best ways out.

    But electric cars face a massive uphill battle. They lack the economies of scale and track record that traditional cars enjoy. They don't have the hundred-plus years of experience that's allowed their competitors to bring technology costs down. And while some big advances will come from people tinkering in labs, getting more electric cars onto the road is essential to figuring out how to manufacture lots of them efficiently, develop new ways to finance sales, and engineer networks of charging stations so that drivers don't run out of fuel.

    Those initial cars, though, will be part of a niche market and come at a premium price. And the wealthy are a natural target market.

    Take the cellular telephone. The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X, released in 1982, sold for $3,995 (equivalent to nearly $10,000 today). Gordon Gecko, who carried one of the behemoths around in the 1987 movie Wall Street, typified the cell phone user: rich, arrogant, brash. As late as 1998, the Nokia 6160 (the most popular cell phone model of the 1990s) sold for $900, well beyond the reach of most consumers. It was not until the 2000s that cell phones, which improved dramatically while they were considered a luxury good, became cheap enough for mass adoption.

    During the 20 or so years that it took the cell phone to move from high-end product to mass market, the phones themselves transformed too. The DynaTAC was more than a foot long, weighed over two pounds, and had a one-hour battery life; today, you can buy a two-ounce phone that's smaller than your palm for $20.

    早期的汽车也是先被富人接受的。第一台使用汽油的内燃机于1885年在德国诞生，在接下来20年中，引擎和汽车的其他部件都在不断改良。直到1908年亨利•福特的T型车面世，现代轿车才能为普通人所有。福特带来了大量创新——尤其是在装配线上——使老百姓也能买得起T型车。但他之所以能做到这点，也是因为在小型的高消费市场超过20年的创新经验所致。

    当然，政府并未在购买早期的手机或19世纪的汽车上给予富人税收减免。而电动汽车可能最终也将在没有政府帮助的情况下竞争。不过正如美国投入军费以防御中东地区潜在危险一样，投资加速新科技的发展，以减少美国对于来自动荡地区的石油依赖是有道理的。尽管石油产量达到新高，美国仍是全球市场的一部分。当沙特阿拉伯陷于混乱之时，美国的经济也会受油价飞涨拖累。摆脱这种危机的唯一办法，就是在汽车和卡车上少用油，即便本土的石油产量增加。

    借助政府来开辟早期市场，增加了电动汽车帮助我们达成这一目标的可能性。它已经帮助了天然气产业。21世纪初，天然气价格飙升，大大激励了钻井者去试验水平钻孔和水力压裂法，以便从页岩中提取天然气。税收减免让钻井者能够迅速弥补处理危险气井的成本。十多年来，在这一缓冲之下，他们提高了技术，降低了成本，增加了每口气井的产气量。到2008年天然气价格暴跌之时，水力压裂法的成本已经很低，仍然能够继续使用。

    如果任何人都能拥有一辆电动汽车，当然很好。但是事实上，现在就让电动汽车成为人人可有之物，成本之高难以想象。我也像其他人一样嫉妒能够驾驶特斯拉S型车的家伙。不过如果能因此产生一些突破，最终使得下一代汽车进入千家万户，并帮助美国摆脱石油依赖，那么这个价格我们也愿意付。(财富中文网)

    迈克尔•列维是《力量汹涌：能源，机遇，为美国的未来而战》一书的作者。他是美国外交关系协会能源安全和气候变化项目的高级研究员兼主管。

    译者：严匡正

    The automobile itself benefited from early adoption by wealthy buyers. The first successful gasoline-based internal combustion engine was introduced in Germany in 1885 and over the next two decades, engines and other parts of the vehicle steadily improved. Yet it wasn't until Henry Ford introduced his Model T in 1908 that modern automobile became accessible to mere mortals. Ford (F) introduced a host of innovations -- most notably the assembly line -- that made the Model T accessible to the masses. But he was only able to do that because he could build on innovations that had been driven by smaller, upscale markets for more than 20 years.

    The government, of course, didn't give rich people tax credits for buying early-model cellphones or nineteenth-century cars. And electric vehicles might eventually compete without government help. But just as Washington spends money on the military to protect the country from potential dangers in the Middle East, it makes sense for it to invest in accelerating new technology that could make the U.S. less dependent on the volatile region for oil. Despite record gains in U.S. oil production, we're still part of a global market; when things go haywire in Saudi Arabia, our economy suffers from skyrocketing oil bills. The only way to escape that danger is to use less oil in our cars and trucks even as we produce more crude at home.

    Using government to create an early market increases the odds that electric cars will help us do that. It helped the natural gas industry. During the 2000s, skyrocketing prices for natural gas created a big incentive for drillers to experiment with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (or "fracking") to extract natural gas from shale. Drillers were supported by tax credits that allowed them to quickly write off the costs of tackling risky wells. Over the course of the decade, that cushion let them improve their technology, bringing down costs and raising . By the time natural gas prices crashed in 2008, fracking had become so cheap that it persisted nevertheless.

    While it would be great if anyone could have a shot at owning one now, the reality is that making electric cars available to everyone today would be ruinously expensive. I'm just as envious of the guy who gets to drive a Tesla Model S as the next person. But if that's what it will take to get some breakthroughs that ultimately make the next generation of cars available to the masses -- and help slash American dependence on oil -- it's a price we should be willing to pay.

    Michael Levi is the author of The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future. He is a senior fellow and director of the energy security and climate change program at the Council on Foreign Relations.