硬件革命时代到来
John Hagel,John Seely Brown | 2013-05-13 11:50
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3D打印机等设备的逐渐普及给硬件设计与生产领域带来了重大转变,推动了“制造者运动”的迅速成熟,全民制造的时代正在向我们走来。未来,下一代的“杀手级”硬件很有可能将从一家小创业公司里诞生。
仅仅几年前,要想设计、制造和推广像苹果(Apple)iPhone这样改变了游戏规则的产品,可能得需要一个庞大的商业帝国群策群力。而在今天,更让人兴奋的是,小人物也更有希望创造这种奇迹。 许多人已经注意到了硬件领域近年来出现的一种变化,同时也注意到一批新型、小型的公司正在崛起。克里斯•安德森在他的新书《制造者:新工业革命》(Makers: The New Industrial Revolution)一书中以大量篇幅写到了所谓“制造者运动”的兴起。保罗•格拉罕姆最近的论文《硬件复兴》(The Hardware Renaissance)也提到,在风投基金Y Combinator最近一轮投资的84家创业公司中,有7家都在做硬件,数量有一定提高。艾里克•斯科恩菲尔德在他的博客中写道,“硬件是新的软件,”并称风投机构也在更加积极地寻找做硬件的创业公司进行投资。 硬件领域的这些发展,有一部分是由于科技的价格和性能的改善。像3D打印机、数控镂铣机和激光切割机等工业设备原先只有高端的设计团队才能使用得到,而现在它们已经变成了消费性产品。一款入门级的3D打印机的价格已经降到不到1,000美元。另外像,马达、控制设备以及像Arduino(一种帮助计算机与实体世界进行互动的工具)等硬件产品的零部件的功能也变得越来越强大,同时价格却越来越低廉。 软件方面,我们也有了价格低廉甚至完全免费的CAD制图软件。甚至还有一款移动应用可以通过手机摄像头来捕捉物体的3D图像,以便进行3D打印。 基础设施领域出现的一些新元素也有助于使一些新硬件产品走出业余爱好者的地下室,进入创业公司的设计室。比如在以前,要想获得合约制造商的关注,就得保证你能下一个大订单(比如生产5万个以上的产品)。但是随着一批新型工厂的出现(其中的大多数在中国和墨西哥),就算每批只有5,000个产品的小订单也有人愿意接。如此一来,这些工厂填补了市场的一个重要的结构性空白,使企业家可以以较小的投资,推出某些面向较小众消费群体的新产品。另外像Kickstarter等新型融资平台以及愿意销售数量较低的产品的新型在线推广渠道也降低了行业的门槛。 以上这些新发展为经典的颠覆式创新模式提供了正确的要素。而所谓经典的颠覆式创新模式一般是指从向某个尚未被开发的小众市场提供商品开始,然后渐渐将生意做大,直至取代一个规模更大的竞争对手。同时这些新的发展也为一些新型企业打开了一扇门。它们不必把规模做得很大,就能做到非常盈利。个人或小型设计团队可以专门针对市场的某个有利可图的领域设计产品,同时还可避免高额的店面费用和生产成本。 不过科技和基础设施并不是推动硬件进步的唯一因素。“制造者运动”的兴起也离不开人才的兴起。我们已经关注到了所谓“创造空间”的出现。“创造空间”指的就是能够支持和鼓励学习与进步氛围的社群、网络与文化。我们在从艺术到职业电子竞技再到极限运动等很多领域都发现了这种现象,人们在这些领域中努力做着以前从来没有人去做的事。而且我们发现,在这些创造空间里还存在着某些共性元素: | Just a few years ago, it would have taken a corporate empire to design, build, and market a hardware game-changer like Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. Today, there's far more hope -- and excitement -- surrounding the little guy, and for good reason. Many people have noted a shift in the hardware landscape and the emergence of new, smaller companies. In his book Makers: The New Industrial Revolution, Chris Anderson writes extensively about the rise of the "Maker Movement." Paul Graham's recent essay "The Hardware Renaissance" mentions the recent uptick (7 out of the latest class of 84) in hardware startups at Y Combinator. In his blog, Erick Schonfeld wrote that "Hardware is the New Software," and that VCs are pursuing hardware startups more aggressively as well. The developments in the hardware space are in part driven by the improving price and performance of technology. Industrial tools, such as 3-D printers, CNC routers, and laser cutters, which were previously only available to high-end design teams, are becoming consumer products. An entry level 3-D printer costs less than $1,000. The components for hardware products, such as motors, control devices, and Arduinos (tools to help computers interact with the physical world), are all increasingly powerful and affordable as well. On the software front, there are intuitive CAD programs available for modest prices or for free. There's even an app that uses a cellphone camera to capture 3-D images of objects so they can be 3-D printed. New infrastructural elements have also helped new hardware products move from the hobbyist's basement to the startup garage. Before, to get a contract manufacturer's attention, you had to commit to producing high volumes (say 50,000 or more units). But a new class of factories -- mostly in China and Mexico -- will manufacture batches as small as 5,000 units. By filling low-volume orders, these factories have filled an important structural hole in the market: They allow entrepreneurs to launch new products for small consumer groups with little investment. And new funding platforms such as Kickstarter and online distribution channels (also amenable to selling products at low volumes) have decreased barriers to entry. These developments have provided the right ingredients for the classic model of disruptive innovation: Start by providing a new product to a niche, underserved market and then scale to displace a larger competitor. They have also opened the door for new businesses that can be highly profitable without scaling. Individuals or small design teams can design niche products to cherry-pick profitable sections out of a market while avoiding the high overhead of storefronts and manufacturing. But the advances in hardware haven't been driven by technology and infrastructure alone. The "maker movement" has been driven by a flourishing of talent. We've watched the emergence of what we call creation spaces: communities, networks, and cultures that encourage learning and improvement. We've observed this phenomenon in many fields, from the arts to professional gaming to extreme sports -- fields where people are striving to do things that have never been done before. Here are some of the common elements we've found among these creation spaces: |
• 热情的参与者——创造空间吸引着很多想提高自身水平的爱好者,他们既投入又富有激情。硬件方面,种种技术的普及不仅意味着它们向更多的人敞开了大门,而且基本上也可以说它向各种不同的人敞开了大门。热情的爱好者们解决问题的方法与企业的产品研发团队不同。他们主动寻找挑战、承担风捡,乐在其中地敲敲打打,进行实验,而且有更大的失败空间。他们不是按照市场部门的要求进行开发,而是真正在解决自己的实际问题,因此常常能孕育出优秀的创意。 • 本地社群——热心的参与者们一般会通过团队、俱乐部、见面会等社区活动聚集起来。“制造者活动”的很多学习活动都是在黑客空间里进行的。黑客空间这样的环境有点像健身房,用户只需按月注册会员,就可以获得3D打印机或激光切割机等设备的使用权限,而且还有“教练”帮助他们提高制作水平。这些黑客空间的黑客一般都支持开源理念,乐于分享知识,这两者都刺激了学习进程。 • 全球分享——最强有力的创造空间可以打造出一个环境,能够让全球社群进行分享,相互学习对方的进展和技术。各种竞赛、会议以及网络论坛和YouTube等网站为爱好者们提供了取长互短的机会,同时还可以学习到别人的好点子。像Thingaverse.com等网站允许设计师上传各种产品的设计方案,从芭比娃娃的零件到四旋翼飞行器无所不有,其他设计师则可以下载、修改他们的方案,然后再贴回到网站上去。这种全球分享机制催生了一个分散的设计师网络,他们可以通过一个全球社区迅速地分享技术进步。 就在我们观察到各种创造空间围绕着“制造者运动”兴起的同时,我们也为人们自然地学习新技术的能力和意愿感到惊讶。相比之下,我们采访过的很多企业高管都把人才发展和创新当作头等大事,但是尽管他们使出了全力推动,这个过程还是困难重重。部分原因就是由于大多数企业的组织结构、官僚作风和企业文化实际上限制了让人们互相联系、探索、尝试、随兴发挥的氛围,也就是学习和创新的氛围。企业管理者们要想提高公司的创新水平,就要先问问自己以下三个问题: • 应该怎样设计企业的工作环境,才能培养和提高员工们主动学习和提高工作表现的热情? • 怎样才能更好地发掘员工的专业技能? • 怎样才能在行业内建立起一种关系,加快企业的学习进程,而不仅仅是获得现有的技术?(财富中文网) 本文作者之一的约翰•哈格尔三世是德勤咨询公司的总监,同时也是硅谷德勤领先创新中心的主席之一。本文另一作者约翰•史立•布朗是德勤领先创新中心的独立联席主席。 译者:朴成奎 | • Passionate participants -- Creation spaces attract engaged and passionate enthusiasts who are looking to improve their skills. In hardware, the democratization of technology that we've seen means tools are not only available to more people, but fundamentally different people. Passionate hobbyists have a different approach to solving problems than product development teams. They seek challenges, take risks, tinker, experiment, and have more room to fail. Rather than getting requirements from the marketing department, they are looking to solve problems they actually have, which is a recipe for great ideas. • Local Communities -- Passionate participants congregate in communities (teams, clubs, Meetups, etc.). Much of the learning within the Maker Movement takes place in hacker spaces. These environments are like gyms – a monthly membership gives users access to equipment (3-D printers, laser cutters, etc.) and trainers who can help them improve their skills. Hackers in these spaces generally embrace open-source ideals and the sharing of knowledge, both of which facilitate learning. • Global sharing -- The strongest creation spaces develop environments where communities across the world share and study each other's improvements and techniques. Competitions, conferences (such as the Maker Faire), and virtual venues like forums and Youtube provide opportunities for cross-pollination and critical "Hey, look what they're doing" learning. Sites such as Thingaverse.com allow designers to upload files for everything from Barbie accessories to Quadcopters for other designers to download, modify, and repost. The result of these global sharing mechanisms is a decentralized network of designers rapidly sharing improvements across a global community. As we've studied the creation spaces that have developed around the Maker Movement, we've been impressed by how naturally people learn new skills. In contrast, many of the executives we speak with list talent development and innovation as top priorities, but for all they push, progress remains a struggle. Part of the problem is that most businesses' institutional structures, hierarchies, and cultures actually limit the connecting, exploration, tinkering, and improvisation that make learning and innovation possible. Here are three questions that executives should ask themselves to improve their companies: • How can I design work environments that nurture and amplify passion for learning and performance improvement among workers? • How can I do a better job of tapping into the expertise of my employees? • How can I build relationships within my industry that accelerate learning, rather just accessing existing expertise? John Hagel III, director in Deloitte Consulting LLP, is the co-chairman of the Deloitte Center for the Edge based in Silicon Valley. John Seely Brown is the independent co-chairman of the Deloitte Center for the Edge. |
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