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苹果分析师热议三星Galaxy S4

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    Evolutionary, not revolutionary, was the general consensus. As for what Samsung's new phone means for Apple (AAPL), the jury was split.

    Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Galaxy S4 Evolutionary, iPhone To Essentially Maintain High End Share In CY13. "The Galaxy S4 appears to be largely an incremental update to the S3 including a slightly larger screen (4% larger on diagonal), better camera and processor, and updated software, but largely the same body style and casing. We believe some of the software features are unique, including the tilt to scroll, video pausing based on facial recognition, and hand gesture based interactions, but view these software improvements as minor compared with what Siri was to the iPhone 4S or even Google Now to Android... Despite the launch and fanfare around the Galaxy S4, we continue to believe that Apple will maintain a low 40% market share in the high-end smartphone market in CY13."

    Jefferies' Peter Misek: Software Features Took the Stage. "The hardware was as expected and much like iPhone 5, the S4 saw little change in design from its predecessor besides a slight increase in size from 4.8" to 5". Samsung focused primarily on its software innovation and interface inputs such as gesture control and Smart Scroll/Pause. While we were impressed overall with our hands-on experience, we await to see how these features perform in the real world and if they are actually used. What does this mean for Apple? We believe the S4 will certainly sell well and it is incrementally negative for Apple; however, the device is not revolutionary, in our view. Aside from the large screen size, which we believe gives Samsung a large advantage over Apple, we believe many of the features can easily be replicated. Additionally, a major complaint amongst Galaxy users is that they do not like Samsung's customized software, especially when it is a downgrade in performance from stock Android features."

    Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey: Galaxy S4 to help Samsung overtake Apple. "While clearly a step forward relative to the S3, there is much that is evolutionary about the S4, rather than revolutionary. Nevertheless, we see the S4 potentially helping Samsung to overtake Apple in high-end smartphone shipments during 2013. Our initial thoughts include: • Derivative form factor – the S4 looks rather similar to the S3 and sustains. • Samsung use of plastics as the main backing material. • Some compelling new features, although some will only work with other S4s or new Samsung TVs, arguably limiting their appeal. • 35-40m high-end S4 and Note sales per quarter seems feasible, which would see Samsung overtake Apple in terms of high-end volumes."

    Barclays' Ben Reitzes: More Competition for iPhone Comes As Expected. "In terms of competition vs. Apple, the GS4 seems largely as expected – and there could be some relief for Apple (certain versions of LTE won't be available until later this year). However, as we stated recently in a recent report – we believe that Samsung's momentum is a major issue for Apple. As a result, we need to see Apple expand its iPhone market this year in a big way – and improve its platform. However, Apple seems rather silent of late – and could be waiting until C3Q to make any competitive response outside of potential adjustments to pricing."

    Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: Galaxy S4: An impressive device. "We believe the S4 device will continue to drive growth for Samsung in the high-end of the smartphone market from ~115mn devices in 2012 to ~180mn devices in 2013 with build plans as high as 200mn units. Combining this with Apple's growth, we continue to highlight that the high-end of the smartphone market should grow to unprecedented levels, and will likely grow 34% yoy to nearly 400mn units in 2013... The addition of Galaxy S4 to Samsung's high-end portfolio certainly presents risks to Apple in the near term owing to increasing competition and product transition. Long term, we still believe iPhone remains a growth business (our iPhone estimates are 158mn/194mn in CY13/CY14, implying global share of 16%) driven by continued growth in the high-end of smartphone market, incremental opportunity from carrier expansion (we estimate 65mn) and ecosystem advantage."

    Topeka's Brian White: A Refresh, but NOT a Game Changer. "The S 4 is faster but still heavier, fatter and less refined than the iPhone 5... We are amazed by how analysts and the media have turned on Apple during the recent stock downdraft with statements that Samsung is "out-innovating" Apple. One would believe that Samsung is crushing Apple in the mobile phone market. We believe this is complete nonsense. We believe the smartphone market share comparison between Samsung and Apple is like comparing apples with oranges. When analyzing the mobile phone market in 4Q12 as reported by IDC, Samsung grew its mobile phone unit shipments by 12.3% YoY vs. 29.2% for Apple."

    Stifel's Aaron Rakers: Samsung Ups the Smartphone Ante. "We believe that the display, the camera, the software and several unique features ups the ante in the smartphone market... Comparing the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S4 specs:

    • The iPhone 5 has a screen resolution of 1136 X 640 pixels and 326 ppi. The S4 has a screen resolution of 1920 X 1080 pixels and 441 ppi.

    • The screen size of the iPhone 5 is 4 inches compared to 5 inches for the S4.

    • The iPhone uses a 1.3 GHz dual-core processor compared to a 1.9 GHz quad-core or 1.6 GHz octa-core processor for the S4.

    • The iPhone only has a 8 MP camera versus 13 MP for the S4.

    • Finally, the iPhone 5 weighs 3.95 ounces versus 4.59 ounces for the S4."

    评论界对三星(Samsung)Galaxy S4的一致评价是,这只能算是进步,而非革命性的飞跃。不过,三星新款手机对苹果(Apple)意味着什么,各方的观点则出现了分歧。

    派杰投资银行(Piper Jaffray)吉恩•蒙斯特:Galaxy S4的确有所进步,但同时,在2013年,iPhone在高端市场仍将占据主导地位。“Galaxy S4大部分都是对S3的一次改进,包括更大的屏幕(对角线尺寸增大了4%),更出色的摄像头与处理器,以及软件更新等,机身和外壳却基本没有变化。我们认为,部分软件功能确实非常特别,包括倾斜滚屏功能、基于面部识别技术的视频暂停功能,以及基于手势的互动等,但相对于Siri之于iPhone 4S的意义,或者Google Now语音服务之于安卓(Android)的意义,这些软件上的更新就逊色了不少……虽然Galaxy S4已经发布,而且宣传工作也在如火如荼地进行之中,但我们依然相信,2013年,苹果在高端智能手机市场的份额不会低于40%。”

    杰弗瑞集团(Jefferies)彼得•米塞克:软件功能成主角。“S4的硬件与预期基本一致,与iPhone 5相当。设计方面和之前相比没有太大变化,尺寸也仅从4.8英寸增加到5英寸。”三星主要专注的是软件创新与界面输入,例如手势控制和智能滚动/暂停等。虽然手机实测体验总体上令我们印象深刻,但这些软件功能在实际使用中的表现到底会怎么样,或者说这些功能是否真的实用,我们会拭目以待。S4的推出对苹果意味着什么?我们相信,S4肯定会有相当不错的销量,而且会逐渐给苹果带来麻烦。但在我们看来,S4还算不上一次革命性的飞跃。除了大屏幕尺寸之外——虽然我们也认为这一点使三星在面对苹果时更具优势,我们认为,S4的许多功能很容易就能复制。此外,Galaxy用户抱怨最多的是,他们并不喜欢三星的定制软件,尤其是定制软件的表现完全比不上原生安卓系统中的软件。

    野村证券(Nomura)斯图尔特•杰弗里:Galaxy S4将帮助三星反超苹果。“虽然S4相比S3有了明显改进,但仍有各种声音认为S4只是一种进步,算不上革命性的飞跃。尽管如此,我们认为S4将帮助三星在2013年的高端智能手机市场反超苹果。我们最初的观点包括:•派生形式因素——S4的外观与S3过于相似。•三星使用塑料作为主要基底材料。•一些有趣的新功能,虽然部分功能仅能与其他S4手机或新三星电视配合使用,限制了这些功能的吸引力。•高端Galaxy S4与Note每季度的销量似乎完全有可能达到3,500万至4,000万台,必将使三星在高端市场反超苹果。”

    巴克莱银行(Barclays)本•瑞兹:预计iPhone必将面临更激烈的竞争。“在与苹果的竞争方面,Galaxy S4基本符合预期——不过,苹果不必紧张(个别LTE版本将于今年晚些时候才能上市)。但正如我们在近期的一份报告中所述,我们相信三星的发展势头会成为让苹果头疼的主要问题。因此,我们希望看到苹果今年大规模扩大iPhone市场,同时改善平台。但最近,苹果似乎一直在保持沉默,我们或许要等到第三季度,才能看到苹果在调整定价之外,是否还会推出其他措施,对三星予以还击。”

    Evolutionary, not revolutionary, was the general consensus. As for what Samsung's new phone means for Apple (AAPL), the jury was split.

    Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Galaxy S4 Evolutionary, iPhone To Essentially Maintain High End Share In CY13. "The Galaxy S4 appears to be largely an incremental update to the S3 including a slightly larger screen (4% larger on diagonal), better camera and processor, and updated software, but largely the same body style and casing. We believe some of the software features are unique, including the tilt to scroll, video pausing based on facial recognition, and hand gesture based interactions, but view these software improvements as minor compared with what Siri was to the iPhone 4S or even Google Now to Android... Despite the launch and fanfare around the Galaxy S4, we continue to believe that Apple will maintain a low 40% market share in the high-end smartphone market in CY13."

    Jefferies' Peter Misek: Software Features Took the Stage. "The hardware was as expected and much like iPhone 5, the S4 saw little change in design from its predecessor besides a slight increase in size from 4.8" to 5". Samsung focused primarily on its software innovation and interface inputs such as gesture control and Smart Scroll/Pause. While we were impressed overall with our hands-on experience, we await to see how these features perform in the real world and if they are actually used. What does this mean for Apple? We believe the S4 will certainly sell well and it is incrementally negative for Apple; however, the device is not revolutionary, in our view. Aside from the large screen size, which we believe gives Samsung a large advantage over Apple, we believe many of the features can easily be replicated. Additionally, a major complaint amongst Galaxy users is that they do not like Samsung's customized software, especially when it is a downgrade in performance from stock Android features."

    Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey: Galaxy S4 to help Samsung overtake Apple. "While clearly a step forward relative to the S3, there is much that is evolutionary about the S4, rather than revolutionary. Nevertheless, we see the S4 potentially helping Samsung to overtake Apple in high-end smartphone shipments during 2013. Our initial thoughts include: • Derivative form factor – the S4 looks rather similar to the S3 and sustains. • Samsung use of plastics as the main backing material. • Some compelling new features, although some will only work with other S4s or new Samsung TVs, arguably limiting their appeal. • 35-40m high-end S4 and Note sales per quarter seems feasible, which would see Samsung overtake Apple in terms of high-end volumes."

    Barclays' Ben Reitzes: More Competition for iPhone Comes As Expected. "In terms of competition vs. Apple, the GS4 seems largely as expected – and there could be some relief for Apple (certain versions of LTE won't be available until later this year). However, as we stated recently in a recent report – we believe that Samsung's momentum is a major issue for Apple. As a result, we need to see Apple expand its iPhone market this year in a big way – and improve its platform. However, Apple seems rather silent of late – and could be waiting until C3Q to make any competitive response outside of potential adjustments to pricing."


    瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse)库布林德•格切:Galaxy S4:一部令人印象深刻的手机。“我们认为,S4手机将推动三星在高端智能手机市场继续增长,出货量预计将从2012年的1.15亿部增加到2013年的1.8亿部,而三星的生产计划则是2亿部。结合苹果的增长,我们仍然要强调,高端智能手机市场将达到前所未有的规模,2013年年比增长34%,将达到约4亿部。三星最新高端手机Galaxy S4的面世必将使竞争进一步加剧,同时还将带来产品转型,在短期内将给苹果带来风险。而从长期来看,我们仍认为,在高端智能手机市场持续增长的大背景下,凭借运营商扩张(我们预计将达到6,500万)所带来的增量机会和生态系统优势,iPhone手机仍属于成长型业务(我们预计,2013年与2014年,iPhone手机出货量将分别达到1.58亿部和1.94亿部,占全球总量的16%)。”

    投资公司Topeka布莱恩•怀特:这的确是一次进步,但却不足以改变游戏规则。“S4在速度上要快于iPhone,但不论重量或是体积,S4均不如iPhone精致。近期,苹果股票下跌时,许多分析师和媒体对苹果落井下石,纷纷声称三星‘在创新上正在超越’苹果。对此,我们非常震惊。有人或许认为三星终将在手机市场打败苹果。我们认为,这种观点完全是无稽之谈。拿三星与苹果的智能手机市场份额进行对比,就像拿苹果与橘子进行比较一样,两者完全没有可比性。根据互联网数据中心(IDC)提供的2012年第4季度的手机市场报告,三星手机出货量年比增长了12.3%,而苹果则增长了29.2%。”

    金融服务公司Stifel阿伦•雷克斯:三星提高了押在智能手机产品上的赌注。“我们认为,S4的屏幕、摄像头、软件和其他几种独特性能提高了押在智能手机产品上的赌注。iPhone 5与Galaxy S4参数对比如下:

    • iPhone 5的屏幕分辨率为1136 X 640像素,326 ppi。而S4的屏幕分辨率为1920 X 1080像素,441 ppi。

    • iPhone 5的屏幕为4寸,S4则为5寸屏。

    • iPhone使用1.3 GHz双核处理器,S4则使用1.9 GHz四核或1.6GHz八核处理器。

    • iPhone摄像头仅为800万像素,S4则为1,300万像素。

    • 最后,iPhone 5重3.95盎司,而S4重4.59盎司。”(财富中文网)

    译者:刘进龙/汪皓

    Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: Galaxy S4: An impressive device. "We believe the S4 device will continue to drive growth for Samsung in the high-end of the smartphone market from ~115mn devices in 2012 to ~180mn devices in 2013 with build plans as high as 200mn units. Combining this with Apple's growth, we continue to highlight that the high-end of the smartphone market should grow to unprecedented levels, and will likely grow 34% yoy to nearly 400mn units in 2013... The addition of Galaxy S4 to Samsung's high-end portfolio certainly presents risks to Apple in the near term owing to increasing competition and product transition. Long term, we still believe iPhone remains a growth business (our iPhone estimates are 158mn/194mn in CY13/CY14, implying global share of 16%) driven by continued growth in the high-end of smartphone market, incremental opportunity from carrier expansion (we estimate 65mn) and ecosystem advantage."

    Topeka's Brian White: A Refresh, but NOT a Game Changer. "The S 4 is faster but still heavier, fatter and less refined than the iPhone 5... We are amazed by how analysts and the media have turned on Apple during the recent stock downdraft with statements that Samsung is "out-innovating" Apple. One would believe that Samsung is crushing Apple in the mobile phone market. We believe this is complete nonsense. We believe the smartphone market share comparison between Samsung and Apple is like comparing apples with oranges. When analyzing the mobile phone market in 4Q12 as reported by IDC, Samsung grew its mobile phone unit shipments by 12.3% YoY vs. 29.2% for Apple."

    Stifel's Aaron Rakers: Samsung Ups the Smartphone Ante. "We believe that the display, the camera, the software and several unique features ups the ante in the smartphone market... Comparing the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S4 specs:

    • The iPhone 5 has a screen resolution of 1136 X 640 pixels and 326 ppi. The S4 has a screen resolution of 1920 X 1080 pixels and 441 ppi.

    • The screen size of the iPhone 5 is 4 inches compared to 5 inches for the S4.

    • The iPhone uses a 1.3 GHz dual-core processor compared to a 1.9 GHz quad-core or 1.6 GHz octa-core processor for the S4.

    • The iPhone only has a 8 MP camera versus 13 MP for the S4.

    • Finally, the iPhone 5 weighs 3.95 ounces versus 4.59 ounces for the S4."

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