新年快乐

    很快，汽车业的目光就将聚焦到底特律，北美国际车展（North American International Auto Show）即将在此盛大开幕。本届车展上，汽车业的大佬们将为各种令人激动的全新车型揭开面纱，对市场份额做充满希望的预测——预测的份额加起来将超过100%——同时祈祷人们忘了他们一年前这个时候做的那些落空的预言。

    人们关注的焦点转移，这是西欧厂商乐于见到的情形。西欧近期发生的各种事件可谓在悲剧和闹剧之间大起大落，使各大厂商的运势判若云泥。法国的厂商一直深陷衰退，同时苦于产能过剩，目前正想方设法努力止损；而德国的一些厂商却似乎凯歌高奏，轻而易举地迎来一个又一个胜利。在新年发生的一系列事件中，又冒出来一件让大家意想不到的荒唐事，福特公司（Ford）的一位前高管被控向前妻隐匿上千万美元，为此将面临牢狱之灾。

    本文将列举一些不如人意的情况，当然也会谈到一些亮点。

    西欧经济陷困境

    继糟糕的一年之后，西欧的汽车销售雪上加霜，12月猛跌了16.2%。整个欧洲的车市处于近20年来的最低点。需求剧降，加之长期产能过剩，正将几家汽车厂商逼向绝境，而在未来数月间，它们预计将面临更加痛苦的处境。最新预测称，2013年西欧的汽车销售将继续萎缩3%到5%。

    标致很受伤

    没有哪家厂商比标致雪铁龙集团（PSA Peugeot Citroën，下简称PSA）伤得更深了。作为一度高踞西欧市场份额第二的强大企业，这家法国车企的市场份额已跌至12.7%。去年，它的股价下跌了44%，目前公司正在大笔烧钱。本来PSA在南欧市场占有很大份额，但这一地区恰恰是经济衰退的重灾区。它法国的市场萎缩了13.3%，西班牙市场萎缩了14.9%，意大利市场也重挫了20.9%。据新上台的法国社会党政府称，过去20年来，PSA犯了战略性失误，即没有拓展国际市场。曾经想过要在美国买一辆标致或雪铁龙的消费者对此应该都深有体会。

    标致脱困遭遇官僚困境

    为了恢复生机，PSA推出了总额高达240亿美元的再融资计划，其中包括100亿美元的国债担保。这项计划本来只是一个纯债务融资计划，但现在却被视为资产重组，意味着它必须经过欧盟（EU）位于布鲁塞尔的公平竞争委员会（competition authorities）的审核。如果监管层认为这项财政援助违反了欧盟竞争法，则PSA可能会被迫在已有让步的基础上再次做出让步，比如取消分红和奖金，在董事会中安排政府指派人员等。

    标致与欧宝的合作仍需数年才会有收益

    标致在努力自救的过程中曾与通用汽车（General Motors）旗下的欧宝（Opel）结盟，以便在采购和工程上每年削减20亿美元的成本。但这个联盟究竟能带来什么好处，双方仍在静静观望。2012年头11个月，随着欧宝在欧洲市场的份额从7.3%跌至6.7%，PSA的份额也随之从12.5%跌到11.7%。这两家公司都急于脱困，但它们联合开发的首款车型要到2016年才能面市。通用汽车的首席执行官丹•埃克森坦承，由于双方在开发一些新车型上存在“诸多变数”，因此合作进程推进缓慢。

    Happy New Year

    In less than 72 hours, the attention of the automotive world will laser in on Detroit, scene of the North American International Auto Show. There, the car world's top executives will unveil exciting new models, make hopeful projections about market share that collectively add up to more than 100%, and hope that no one remembers their failed forecasts from a year ago.

    The shift in focus is welcome in Western Europe, where fortunes are sharply divided as recent events have ricocheted between tragedy and farce. Mired in a deep recession and burdened with overcapacity, automakers in France are frantically trying to stop their bleeding, while some of their German counterparts seem to skip easily from triumph to triumph. Adding an unexpected note of folly to the New Year's events was the jail sentence handed down to a former top Ford executive accused of hiding a multimillion dollar fortune from his ex-wife.

    Here are some of the lowlights -- and a couple highlights for good measure.

    Western Europe's economic woes

    Capping what has been a miserable year, car sales in Western Europe hit the down escalator in December, falling 16.2%. The European market is at its lowest level in nearly 20 years. Slumping demand, in connection with chronic overcapacity, is driving several automakers to the brink, and more pain is forecast in the coming months. New estimates suggest that Western European sales will shrink another 3% to 5% in 2013.

    Peugeot is bleeding

    Nobody is hurting worse than PSA Peugeot Citroën. Once a strong No. 2 in West Europe, the French automaker's market share has fallen to 12.7%. Its stock price has fallen 44% in the past year, and the company has been burning cash. PSA has a particularly large presence in Southern Europe, which has been hit hard by recession. Its market is down 13.3% in France, 14.9% in Spain, and a bruising 20.9% in Italy." According to the newly installed French socialist government, PSA made strategic mistakes over the past 20 years by not expanding internationally -- which anybody who has tried to buy a Peugeot or Citroën in the U.S. would know first-hand.

    Peugeot bailout snarled in red tape

    To get rolling again, PSA has put out together a $24 billion refinancing plan, which includes $10 billion in state loan guarantees. The plan was initially presented as a pure debt refinancing, but now it is being viewed as a restructuring, which means it has to be examined by EU competition authorities in Brussels. If regulators decide the assistance violates EU competition law, PSA could be forced to make concessions on top of those it has already made, such as the elimination of dividends and bonuses, and the placement of a government appointee on its board of directors.

    An Opel payoff for Peugeot is years away

    In its struggle to save itself, Peugeot arranged an alliance General Motors' Opel, to save $2 billion a year in purchasing and engineering. They're both still waiting to see the benefits of that union. PSA's European market share in the first 11 months of 2012 fell from 12.5% to 11.7% as Opel's dropped from 7.3% to 6.7%. Both companies are in a hurry to get healthy, but the first jointly developed models won't hit the streets until 2016. GM (GM, Fortune 500) CEO Dan Akerson admits the two automakers have been slow to work together because of "a lot of variability" between how the two wanted to engineer some new models.

    标致正与欧宝合并？

    法国《世界报》（Le Monde）上刊登了一篇文章，被“汽车真相”网站（The Truth About Cars）译为英语进行转载。文章称，法国政府正推动标致走得更远，要从通用汽车手中直接收购欧宝。鉴于欧宝的业绩及通用欲摆脱这一财务负担的现状，PSA有可能一文不花就能买下它。但PSA可能要为欧宝注入50亿美元或更多钱才能让它恢复生机。在《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）近期对丹•埃克森做的一则专访中，他对欧洲分公司并未给予明确支持。问及“拥有欧宝还是通用的目标吗？是不是有传言称要出售欧宝？”他的回答很简单：“不，没这种说法。”然后就此打住。

    雷诺日子也不好过

    PSA并不是法国经济悲剧的唯一主角。雷诺公司（Renault）希望其法国所有工厂的工人周工作时间增加6.5%，达到35个小时，这样每年就能省下8,500万美元。首席运营官卡洛斯•塔瓦雷斯直言，欧洲的汽车工厂太多了，英国和西班牙的车厂比雷诺在法国的车厂竞争力更强。这种表态当然会让他在强势的法国工会那里不怎么受欢迎。

    俄罗斯也面临窘境

    上周，欧洲市场版图上为数不多的亮点之一也变得稍许黯淡下来，并可能也会遭遇产能过剩之患。本来，俄罗斯已成为欧洲仅次于德国的第二大汽车市场。但据专业汽车新闻刊物《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）称，一些行业观察家确信，随着销售趋于平稳，这个市场可能也会陷入停滞。文章引述一位知名商人称，他认为“未来数月”经济不会出现任何增长迹象。但是，各大汽车厂商仍在继续扩大产能。大众汽车（Volkswagen）正在兴建一座新的发动机工厂，福特汽车正建造第四座组装厂，而俄罗斯最大车企伏尔加【AUTOVAZ，以其商标拉达（Lada）而知名】与雷诺-日产（Renault-Nissan）合建的工厂将把年产能提升到35万辆。

    大众汽车开足马力

    毕马威（KPMG）开展的一项针对汽车业高管所做的调查显示，大众汽车被认为是未来五年内最有可能夺取世界市场霸主地位的厂商。2012年12月，大众宣布，截至11月底，其销量已超过2011年全年，总销量为829万辆。这一佳绩意味着它拿下了西欧市场24.9%的份额，在前一年23.3%的基础上有所增长，足以挡住菲亚特（Fiat）的攻势。菲亚特总裁马尔乔内表示，大众靠野蛮定价正在开展“大屠杀”，并希望借此彻底清洗实力不足的对手。

    慕尼黑上演宝马传奇

    2012年，宝马集团（BMW Group）的销量达到了创纪录的185万辆，比一年前增长了11%，因此，此时该公司正打开香槟大肆庆祝。同时，宝马预计2013年销量将再次创纪录。去年，豪华车买主让宝马超越奥迪（Audi）和奔驰（Mercedes），登上了全球最畅销高端品牌的宝座。但真正立下大功的是小型宝马车：宝马1系的销量增长了29%，3系的销量占宝马总销量的四分之一还多。

    A Peugeot-Opel merger in the works?

    A story that in appeared Le Monde and was reported in English by The Truth About Cars website, says the French government was pushing Peugeot to go further and buy Opel from GM. Given Opel's performance and GM's desire to rid itself of the financial liability, PSA could probably buy it for nothing. But it might find itself sinking $5 billion or more into Opel to make it viable. Dan Akerson gave his European unit a less-than-ringing endorsement in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. When asked "Is it still GM's goal to own Opel? Are there talks of selling it?" he replied tersely, "No, there are no talks." End of.

    Renault is hurting too

    PSA isn't alone in its Franco-misery. Renault wants workers at all its French plants to boost their workweek 6.5% to 35 hours, so it can save $85 million a year. Chief Operating Officer Carlos Tavares has been outspoken in his belief that there are too many car plants in Europe and that factories in England and Spain are more competitive than Renault's in France. That won't make him very popular with France's robust labor unions.

    Even Russia's got the blues

    One of the few bright spots in the European picture turned a bit darker this week and may be about to suffer from the same disease of overcapacity. Russia has grown to become the continent's second-largest car market after Germany. But according to Automotive News, some industry watchers believe it might be stagnating as sales level off. A prominent businessman was quoted as saying he did not expect to see any growth in the economy "in the coming months." Still, automakers continue to expand there. Volkswagen is building a new engine plant, Ford is adding a fourth assembly plant, and AutoVaz (otherwise known by its trade name of Lada) is gearing up to produce 350,000 vehicles a year at a factory in partnership with Renault-Nissan.

    But in Wolfsburg, VW rolls on

    A survey of top automotive executives surveyed by KPMG picked VW as the automaker most likely to gain global market share over the next five years. Volkswagen announced in December that by the end of November it had beaten its sales for all of 2011, with a total of 8.29 million vehicles sold. It has even been strong enough to fend off attacks by Fiat by commanding 24.9% of the Western European auto market, up from 23.3% a year ago. Fiat chief Sergio Marchionne has said that VW is creating a "bloodbath" with its savage pricing and wants to drive its weaker competitors out of business.

    Meanwhile in Munich...

    The BMW Group is popping bottles of sekt sparkling wine after selling a record 1.85 million vehicles in 2012, up 11% from a year ago, and it is forecasting another record year in 2013. Luxury car customers made BMW the best-selling premium brand worldwide over Audi and Mercedes last year, but it was the smaller Bimmers that made the difference: Sales of the 1- series rose 29%, while 3-series sales represented more than a quarter of total BMW volume.

    前福特欧洲CEO休妻藏富

    因在离婚协议中隐匿财产，曾任福特欧洲公司总裁和首席执行官的大卫•施维德日前被英国法官判处入狱两年。施维德现年67岁，2004年，在与其他高管发生多次龃龉后，他被迫离任。作家布莱斯•霍夫曼曾将他描绘为“讨厌的英国佬”和“叼雪茄的铁腕人物”。据英国《每日邮报》（Daily Mail）称，前施维德夫人曾雇佣私家侦探和法务会计追踪她丈夫的公开财富，直至查到他开在瑞士的户头。而在庭上，施维德却向法庭陈述称，他“实际上身无分文”，因为为第三次婚姻埋单，为女儿支付教育费用和大学学费，以及保养他在巴哈马的海滨房产，已掏空了他的腰包。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    A former Ford Europe CEO disgraced

    David Thursfield, onetime chairman and CEO of Ford Europe, was sentenced to two years in jail by a U.K. judge for failing to disclose his hidden wealth in a divorce settlement. Thursfield, now 67, left Ford in 2004 after numerous clashes with other executives. Author Bryce Hoffman has described him as an "unlikable Brit" and "an iron fisted cigar chomper." According to Britain's Daily Mail, the former Mrs. Thursfield hired private detectives and a forensic accountant to track her husband's alleged wealth to a bank account in Switzerland. For his part, Thursfield told the court he was "virtually penniless" after paying for his third wedding, school and university fees for his daughter, and the upkeep on his waterfront property in the Bahamas.