如果问问投资者2013年担心些什么，大多数人的回答必然会包括中国。吉姆•奥尼尔是个例外，而且可以毫不夸张地说，他已经将自己的职业前途押在了中国的经济成功上。早在2001年，我们大多数人仍然震惊于网络泡沫的破裂时，奥尼尔却用巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国这四个国家的英文首字母炮制出了“BRIC（金砖四国）”一词，并宣称这四个新兴经济体，特别是中国，未来十年将推动市场发展。后来虽然爆发了金融危机，但他的预言大致是正确的。现在，有些人开始担心中国这个世界第二大经济体可能崩溃。现年55岁、掌管超过8000亿美元资产的高盛资产管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）董事长奥尼尔依然乐观。他预测中国经济从制造向消费的转型有望实现软着陆。他相信，2013年中国股市将和日本、欧洲那些此前表现低迷的股市一起领先于全球股市。下面是经过编辑的采访节选：

    最近，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略师鲁吉•夏尔马等人纷纷唱衰金砖四国，认为投资者们不应指望这些国家。

    事实上这取决于人们原来的预期是什么。我不知道有多少正常人真的会预测中国经济增速将保持10%。

    他不光是说中国没有实现预计的10%增速。他说的是中国的经济增速将来可能连5%都达不到。

    2010年和2011年中国经济增速出现下降是因为政策制定者们非常担心通胀，通胀曾在很短的一段时间内大大高于目标水平。当然通胀的上涨与中国城镇房价的急速上涨也不无关系。因此，他们特意放缓了增速。但是，要说中国经济增速将降至5%或以下，那就拿出依据来，我是想象不出。

    中国大量农村人口已经进城，总体人口结构趋于老龄化。因此，人口结构将不再是中国的优势因素。

    首先，中国的城市化进程可能还只是进行了一半。第二，现在人们突然开始说：“哦，中国遇到了人口结构挑战。”我的感觉是，“过去十年你们都睡着了吗?”对于那些长期以来关注中国的人们来说，这些都不是什么新鲜事，特别是对于中国的决策机构而言。他们已经开始重视经济增长的质量，注重提高生产率，而不只是依赖庞大的农村人口进城。我认为印度和巴西有些东西值得担忧，但就中国而言，我要说的就是，它的表现好于我的预期。

    Ask most investors for their list of concerns for 2013, and China is on it. Jim O'Neill is an exception -- and it's not much of an exaggeration to say he has staked his career on that country's success. Back in 2001, when most of us were still dazed by the dotcom bust, O'Neill created the acronym BRIC, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He proclaimed that those emerging economies, China's in particular, would drive markets for the next decade. The financial crisis notwithstanding, he has been broadly correct. Now some fear a bust in the world's second-largest economy. O'Neill, the 55-year-old chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GS), which oversees more than $800 billion, remains optimistic. He predicts a transition from manufacturing to consumption that will create a rare soft landing. And he thinks that Chinese stocks, along with battered markets in Japan and Europe, will lead the pack in 2013. Edited excerpts:

    Lately people such as Morgan Stanley strategist Ruchir Sharma have been critical of the BRICs, arguing that investors shouldn't count on them.

    It really depends on what people expected. How anyone in their right mind could seriously have expected China to continue to grow at 10% I'm not really sure.

    His claim is not just that China hasn't lived up to its expected 10%. He's saying China isn't even going to grow 5%.

    China slowed in 2010 and 2011 because policymakers were very worried about inflation, which was way above target for a brief period and of course linked to a very dramatic rise in urban house prices. And they deliberately slowed it. To argue that China is in the process of slowing to 5% or less -- anyone is entitled to a view, but I don't see what premise it's based on.

    Well, the Chinese have moved to cities, and they're aging. So the demographic wind won't be at China's back anymore.

    First of all, they're probably only about halfway through urbanization. Second, the fact that people are suddenly saying, "Oh, China's got a demographic challenge." I'm like, "Where have you all been sleeping for the past decade?" It's been known by those who follow it closely and, most importantly, by Chinese policymakers. That's why they've been focusing on better quality of growth and boosting their productivity rather than rely on sheer numbers of people urbanizing. I see things to worry about in India and Brazil, but if anything, China is doing better than I expected.

    印度和巴西让你担心的问题是什么？

    印度人似乎就认定他们不用做什么，就可以达到8%的经济增长率。和中国不同，印度要改变政策非常困难。印度亟需批准更多外国投资来提高生产率。

    巴西的一个基本问题是本币估值过高。第二个问题是除了大宗商品行业，巴西其他行业不是很有竞争力。除非他们能做些什么来振兴非大宗商品行业，否则，巴西经济可能继续不景气。不过，我要补充一点，今年他们都已经采取了措施来降低货币估值。这些举措有相当的风险，但让人印象深刻。

    人们将墨西哥、印尼、韩国和土耳其的英文首字母缩写“MIST”（迷雾四国）也归为你的创造。迷雾四国的表现会好于金砖四国吗？

    我看不出来。但我知道这是现在很流行的一个概念。

    那么，你根本不信这个据说是你创造的流行概念？

    这个字母缩写的出现是因为我们有一次在写到发展中经济体时提到了金砖四国和其他这四个国家。有些韩国记者抓住了这一点，就写我又创造了一个新词，这时我才第一次听到这个词。这四个国家都很有意思，可能也会表现不错。有些可能在短时期内可能经济增速还会快于中国，但我认为这种可能性很小。韩国的人口结构还不如中国。墨西哥、印尼和土耳其的人口结构确实很好，但它们有很多其他问题。

    你说中国正在从一个出口型经济转向一个消费型经济。哪些国家将从中受益？

    我认为，墨西哥将是真正的大赢家，因为中国在低附加值行业上的竞争力将不如过去15年。过去，墨西哥曾屡屡处于下风。意大利的奢侈品制造商们将继续受益，德国公司也是如此。投资这些公司正当时，因为中国消费市场是这个十年最大的投资主题。很可能美国也会受益。中国市场已占到苹果公司（Apple）销售额的20%。如果它能继续维持一家超级大公司的地位，原因就是是因为中国。

    What's your fear about India and Brazil?

    The Indians just sort of assume they can grow at 8% without doing anything. Contrary to China, they find it really difficult to change policies. India badly needs to allow more foreign investment to boost productivity.

    Brazil's basic problem has been that their currency became far too overvalued. That added to their second problem, that the noncommodity sector of their economy is not very competitive. Unless they can do something to boost their noncommodity industries, Brazil might continue to struggle. But I add that they've done things to reduce the strength of their currency this year that are risky but quite impressive.

    People have been attributing another acronym -- MIST, for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey -- to you. Will the MISTs do better than the BRICs?

    I can't see why, though I know it's a very fashionable story at the moment.

    So it's a fashionable story attributed to you that you don't even buy into?

    The acronym came about because we wrote about growing economies, which mentioned the BRICs and the four others. Some South Korean journalist got hold of that and wrote that I had created a new acronym, which was the first I'd heard about it. All those countries are interesting places and will probably do well. And some may have brief periods where they grow more strongly than China, but I think it's very unlikely. South Korea has worse demographics than China. Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey do have very positive demographics, but they have lots of issues as well.

    You say China is changing from an export economy to a consumer economy. Which countries will benefit?

    I think Mexico is a really big winner, because China can't compete in the low-value-added industries that it did the past 15 years. And Mexico suffered badly from that. Italian luxury-goods makers continue to be winners, as do German companies. It's the right play because the Chinese consumer is the biggest investing story of this decade. And it's quite possible the U.S. will benefit. Apple (APPL) already has 20% of its sales in China. If it's going to continue to be a powerhouse, it will be because of China.

    你现在把钱投在哪里？

    我认为，欧洲股市由于估值将继续有很大吸引力。我相信2013年最有意思的单一股市是日本，因为它的估值真的很低。当然，很可能日本货币管理当局的货币放松政策还会比美联储（Fed）更胜一筹。果真如此，未来6个月日本市场将继续有出色表现。还有中国。市场内部的涨跌股会有差别，但总体而言，中国股市2013年的表现会好于2012年或2011年。

    译者：早稻米

    Where are you putting your money?

I think European equities continue to be very attractive because of valuation. I find that the single most interesting stock market going into 2013 is Japan because it's really cheap, and of course, it may well be that the monetary authorities decide to out-QE the Fed. If that's the case, the Japanese market will do very well the next six months. And China. The winners and losers internally are going to be different, but in general Chinese equities should have a better 2013 than 2012 or 2011.