买房经济压力上升

    五年前，美国住宅市场泡沫破裂，造就了最廉价的买入时机。房地产网站Trulia的租赁与购房报告显示，在美国很多地方，哪怕是像纽约、火奴鲁鲁等价格最贵的市场中，购房成本也已低于租房。按揭贷款利率创下新低，也使得买房更能承受。

    但这种情况正在发生变化。房价在2012年触底回升。这一刻终于到来！虽然这告诉我们房地产市场在复苏，但也意味着2013年买房压力将上升。11月份，卖房挂牌价同比上涨3.8%，为2007年住房市场崩溃以来最大的同比涨幅之一。虽然全美范围内房租涨幅仍快于房价涨幅，但在Trulia调查的25个最大租房市场（包括丹佛、西雅图和旧金山）中，有14个市场的这个趋势已经扭转。

涨不涨别看房价，看就业率

    大多数人都会看房价来衡量住宅市场健康与否。但这并不适用于2012年。价格上涨不一定意味着行业整体好转。Trulia的首席经济学家杰德•科尔科表示，要看明年房市怎么样更好的办法是看就业增长率。

    拉斯维加斯、迈阿密和凤凰城等城市的房价已经大涨，但涨势能持续多久并不清楚。房价上涨一部分是因为过去跌了太多，还有一部分是因为很多住房仍处于止赎程序中。这些城市也处于全美一些失业率最高的州，失业率与人们的购买能力息息相关。

    科尔科列出了他预测的2013年最健康的10个市场。得克萨斯州的城市占了大部分，让我们祝贺它吧。

贷款拖欠率下降（非常缓慢地）

    陷入困境的美国房地产市场存在的一大问题就是创纪录的止赎水平。因此，经济学家们非常关注贷款拖欠率；房屋所有人拖欠还款是止赎的先兆。全美范围内，按揭贷款拖欠率自2006年的1.49%连涨12个季度后，在2009年的最后三个月达到了6.89%的峰值。

    截至最近的一个季度，拖欠率已经下降至5.41%。预计2013年拖欠率可能继续缓慢下行至2%左右。很多拖欠来自于拖欠已超过一年的原有借款人，并非遵循更严格贷款标准的新借款人。预计降幅最大的几个州将是内华达州、明尼苏达州、加州和亚利桑那州。

Buying gets less affordable

    The bust of the housing market five years ago created one of the cheapest times to buy. Across many parts of the U.S., even in some of the priciest markets including New York and Honolulu, it has become cheaper to purchase a home than rent, according to Trulia's Rent vs Buy report. Record-low interest rates on mortgages have also made buying more affordable.

    That's changing, however. In 2012, prices hit bottom. Finally! While that tells us the market is healing, it could also mean buying will be less affordable in 2013. Asking prices for homes for sale rose 3.8% in November from a year earlier -- one of the biggest gains since the housing market crashed in 2007. While rents nationwide are still rising faster than home prices, the trend has reversed in 14 of Trulia's 25 biggest rental markets including Denver, Seattle and San Francisco.

Watch for rising jobs, not rising prices

    Most of us watched home prices to gauge the health of the housing market. That was so 2012, however. Just because prices are rising doesn't necessarily mean the industry is doing any better. Next year, a better pulse of the market will be the rate of jobs growth, says Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia.

    Cities like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix have seen home prices surge, but it's uncertain how long that could last. Prices have risen, partly because they fell so much and also because many homes are still undergoing the foreclosure process. They're also cities in states with some of the highest rates of unemployment, which ties closely to how well people will be positioned to buy.

    For 2013, Kolko has spotted 10 cities where he thinks the market will be healthiest. CongratsTexas, you make up the bulk of them!

Delinquencies fall (very slowly)

    The troubled housing market was marked by record foreclosures, which is why economists closely watch the rate at which homeowners are late on their payments -- they're a precursor to foreclosures. Nationwide, the delinquency rate on mortgages peaked during the last three months of 2009 at 6.89%, after rising 12 quarters in a row from 1.49% in 2006.

    As of the latest quarter, the delinquency rate dropped to 5.41%. And for 2013, it's expected to continue dropping -- albeit, slowly to around 2%. Much of the late payments are made up of existing borrowers more than a year late on their payments, as opposed to new borrowers following stricter lending standards. Some of the biggest declines are expected in Nevada, Minnesota, California and Arizona.

创纪录的低利率

    低利率当然也助推了住房市场的复苏。过去几年，30年期定息按揭贷款的平均利率已降至新低。虽然12月份尚未结束，2012年平均利率为3.68%，低于2011年的4.45%和2010年的4.69%。

    当然，利率不可能永远这么低。因此，有些人担心如果未来利率上升，可能再度推低房价。但如果美联储（Federal Reserve）坚持己见，短期内应该不会出现这样的情况。美联储在最近的一次会议上不寻常地表示，只要通胀保持低水平，就会维持现行利率不变，直到失业率降至6.5%之下。按照美联储的预测，这意味着利率将保持低位直至2015年。

首次购房者

    2012年美国住房市场的反弹有目共睹，但不是所有人都搭上了这趟顺风车。很多首次购房者都错过了这次机会——他们要么是处于失业，要么是拿不到住房贷款，或者两者兼而有之。

    这些首次购房者通常年龄在25岁至34岁，在经济衰退后的几年来经历的失业状况比其他大多数成年人更糟。一年前，年轻工作者的失业率为9.2%，所有成年人的失业率为8.7%。最近，这个差距已经收窄。11月份，年轻工作者的失业率已经降至7.9%，而所有成年人的失业率为7.7%。

    如果这股趋势持续，或许能帮助首次购房者重新入市购房。

    译者：早稻米

Record-low interest rates

    Cheap money has certainly helped the housing market recover. For the past few years, average interest rates on 30-year-fixed mortgages fell to new lows. With December remaining, rates this year averaged 3.68%, lower than the average 4.45% for 2011 and 4.69% in 2010.

    To be sure, rates can't stay low forever. Which is why some have worried a return to higher rates could push home prices down again. But if the Federal Reserve has its way, that won't happen any time soon. In an unusual move during its last meeting of the year, the central bank's policy-making board decided to leave rates untouched until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5% so long as inflation stays low. Which means, according to the Fed's predictions, rates will likely stay low into 2015.

First-time buyers

    The housing market's rebound was hard to miss this year, but not everyone rode the wave to better days. Missing were first-time buyers -- many of whom were either jobless or couldn't get a home loan or both.

    Those who tend to be first-time buyers, 25 to 34-year-olds, suffered far worse joblessness than most other adults in the years following the recession. A year ago, unemployment among young workers was 9.2% versus 8.7% for all adults. The gap has narrowed recently. In November, unemployment among young workers had fallen to 7.9% versus 7.7% for all adults.

    If the trend continues, this might help bring first-time buyers back into the market.