为什么瑞士是有史以来最稳定的国家？与其他国家不同的是，瑞士货币币值自危机以来持续走高，而瑞士并没有强大的中央银行来支撑这一切。就这点来说，上述功劳似与中央政府关系不大。在《反脆弱性：无序的收获》（Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder）一书中，纳西姆·塔勒布戏谑地写道，比起自己国家总统的名字，瑞士的老百姓们反倒更熟悉法国总统和美国总统的名字。

    瑞士是塔勒布有关反脆弱性理论的最好例证——在打击和混乱的作用下，特定事物会变得更加坚强，而脆弱的事物则直接败下阵来。

    塔勒布认为，瑞士之所以是稳定的样板，正是因为它没有强大的中央银行或政府。组成瑞士的十几个拥有主权的州彼此之间争吵不断，斗争不休。这种混乱局面却让瑞士变得更加坚强，小问题在演变成大危机（比如财政悬崖）之前就已经得以解决。

    期货交易员出身的思想家塔勒布将《反脆弱性》一书视为毕生杰作，书中所讲的不过是一个被今人遗忘的老道理。脆弱的事物，例如大银行和负债的消费者，面临压力时倾向崩溃。但是，现实世界还有不少事物会在压力作用下变得更加强壮。去健身房练举重会让一个人的肌肉更加有力。病菌能加强我们的免疫系统。尽管颇受非议，《五十度灰》（Fifty Shades of Grey）一书的销量却一路扶摇而上。

    让塔勒布恼火的是，当前的领导人正带领着这个世界向着反脆弱性的反方向前进。于是，在小问题面前，我们的经济和社会变得脆弱不堪。无论五家大到不能倒的巨型银行犯的错有多大，金融系统还要依靠它们。我们的中央银行为了短期表现刺激经济，而对刺激政策会给未来十年经济带来的影响却一无所知。为了避免冲击现有的银行和经济——即所谓经济的自然周期——实际上，我们两者都损害了。“为避免犯小错，而大错特错，”塔勒布写道。

    How did Switzerland become the most stable country in history? Its currency, unlike ours, keeps hitting new highs post-crisis, yet Switzerland doesn't have a large central bank working behind the scenes. For that matter, it doesn't have much of a central government. In Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, Nassim Taleb jokes that the average Swiss citizen can name the presidents of France and the United States before they can name their own.

    It turns out Switzerland perfectly captures Taleb's idea of antifragility -- the concept that certain things grow stronger with shock and turmoil, as opposed to fragile things, which just break down.

    Taleb argues that Switzerland is a model of stability precisely because it doesn't have a big central bank or national government. Instead, its dozens of sovereign mini-states squabble and fight constantly. This turmoil actually makes the country stronger because the Swiss get small problems out of the way before they can metastasize into something bigger like, say, a fiscal cliff.

    What Taleb introduces in Antifragile -- a book the brash options-trader-turned-philosopher calls his life's work -- is an old concept that seems to have been forgotten today. Fragile things, such as big banks or debt-laden consumers, tend to break under stress. But the world is full of things that grow stronger when exposed to stress. Your muscles get stronger when you lift weights at the gym. Immune systems strengthen from exposure to germs. Fifty Shades of Grey sales soar despite critical disdain.

    What riles Taleb is that our leaders have increasingly shifted the modern world in the opposite direction of antifragility. As a result, our economy and society are vulnerable to little shocks. The financial system is dependent on five large banks that are too-big-to-fail, no matter how big their mistakes. Our central bankers juice the economy for short-term gain without knowing how they're affecting the next decade. By avoiding shocks to our banks and economy -- AKA the natural business cycle -- we actually harm both. "Avoiding small mistakes makes the big ones more severe," Taleb writes.

    塔勒布还指出社会各个层面存在脆弱性的例子。过度保护的父母不让孩子面对逆境，以及能促其成熟的各类困境。医生更乐意给病患开抗抑郁药百忧解（Prozac）：十分之一的美国人靠抗抑郁药度日。塔勒布认为，应该让我们的情绪按照自然规律波动。

    “如果百忧解早一个世纪问世，”塔勒布写道。“波德莱尔的怨气，埃德加·爱伦·坡的情绪，西尔维娅·普拉斯的诗歌，还有其他诗人的不朽词句，所有拥有灵魂的事物，都将被湮灭于雏形中。”

    有证据证明，小失误能带来更好的未来。科学领域里有所谓毒性兴奋效应（hormesis）的说法，即一定剂量的有害物质能够让有机体更加强壮、更加健康，并能承受更大剂量的有害物质。塔勒布借助毒性兴奋效应来解释历史潮流，探寻如泰坦尼克号此类悲剧的作用。他强调，如果泰坦尼克号没有沉入大西洋海底，那么人们无疑会去建造更大的远洋客船，直到最终发生沉船，更多生命凋零。

    眼前，日本福岛核泄漏灾难凸显出核反应堆的脆弱性，有助防止未来灾难的发生。塔勒布将这类不可预测的事件称为“黑天鹅”。他认为，我们应该为那些无法预测的事件做好准备，这就是我们要反脆弱性的原因所在。

    畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》（Fooled by Randomness）和《黑天鹅》（The Black Swan）之后，塔勒布闭关1,100天写出续作，凝练出“反脆弱性”这个主题。鲜为人知的是，塔勒布是一位非常滑稽的作家。他拥有敏锐的“鼻子”，会嗅遍全书，挑出那些广为接受的有毒理念，例如股票期权。由于股票期权对于接受它的公司主管来说毫无缺陷，所以反倒十分危险。

    《反脆弱性》一书与其以前作品不同之处在于，塔勒布还给寻常百姓开了一剂良药。我们如何让生活更坚强？面对毁灭性打击，如何过得怡然自得？他建议，从易处入手，不再乱求医。为什么？因为医生们会不停地给你开药。除非真正生病，一些针对如高血压、高血脂症状的治疗会带来不可预期的副作用【想想抗关节炎药万络（Vioxx）的副作用吧】。

    工作中，遵循机体节律，保持少量压力。碰了壁，爬起来走开。如果懂得进退，为什么还要学日本人那样超时低能工作呢？

    从这点来看，何必执着于所谓的舒适与祥和？我们需要过苦日子来珍视好日子，需要蔬菜来衬托牛排的美味，需要勒紧裤腰带为将来的好日子做准备。总而言之：反脆弱性并不局限在经济和政治理论方面，它更是通往美好生活的一把钥匙。

    译者：郭延航

    Taleb finds baneful examples of fragility in many corners of society. Overprotective parents shield their children from adversity, but also from hardships that help them mature. Doctors prescribe Prozac far too readily: One in 10 Americans is on an antidepressant. Far better, he asserts, to let our moods swing the way they naturally do.

    "Had Prozac been available last century," Taleb writes, "Baudelaire's spleen, Edgar Allan Poe's moods, the poetry of Sylvia Plath, the lamentations of so many other poets, everything with a soul would have been silenced."

    There's proof that small mistakes can foster better futures. In science it's called hormesis, the concept that limited doses of a harmful substance tend to make organisms stronger, healthier, and prepared for a bigger dose next time. Taleb invokes hormesis to explain historical trends, citing tragedies such as the Titanic disaster. Had the Titanic not sunk to the bottom of the Atlantic, he argues, we would have no doubt built bigger and bigger ocean liners until even more people perished in a crash.

    More recently, the Fukushima nuclear disaster highlighted nuclear reactor vulnerabilities, which should help prevent future catastrophes. Such events are unpredictable, which is why Taleb calls them Black Swans. His point is we need to be prepared for what we can't predict, which is why we need to become antifragile.

    Taleb apparently concocted the term "antifragility" during the 1,100 days he spent in seclusion writing the new book, a follow-up to his previous bestsellers Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. What sometimes goes unsaid about Taleb is that he's a very funny writer. Taleb has a finely tuned BS detector, which he wields throughout the book to debunk pervasive yet pernicious ideas like stock options, which are so dangerous because they have no downside for the executives who receive them.

    What makes Antifragile distinct from his previous books are Taleb's prescriptions for regular people. How do you make your life more antifragile? How do you live a fulfilling, enjoyable life immune to ruin? Start simple, he advises, and cut out visits to the doctor. Why? Because doctors are incented to prescribe, prescribe, prescribe. Unless you're truly sick, medicating everything from high blood pressure to high cholesterol tends to produce unintended side effects (think of the Vioxx effect).

    At work, follow your body's rhythms and introduce small stressors. Get up and take a walk when you hit a wall. Why work long, low-energy hours like the Japanese when starting and stopping is far more efficient?

    For that matter, why strive for bland, cosseted consistency? We need bad days to appreciate the good, vegetables to enjoy steak, and financial hardship to prepare us for good times. The takeaway: Antifragility isn't just sound economic and political doctrine. It's also the key to a good life.