还记得投资界那条永恒的真理吗？坏消息是投资者最好的朋友。当前美国经济艰难前行，中国经济错综复杂，欧洲经济持续萎缩。但智慧的投资者们说：“出手吧！”在他们看来，大多数投资者已经被如今的媒体报道弄得没了信心，纷纷逃离本应持有的资产（比如股票和房地产），把钱都堆到了本应回避的资产之中（比如低收益率债券)。这么多投资者被误导为少数精明的人创造了机会，能以低价购入有吸引力的投资产品。至少理论上是这样。有效的理论需要有专家的洞察力，而我们大多数人既没有时间，也缺乏专业素养，无法信心满满地找出这些蒙尘的明珠。

    因此，我们特地请来五位市场观察家分享他们的智慧。史蒂芬·奥斯是共同基金公司Federated Investors的股票首席投资官，拥有30多年的华尔街从业经验。贾斯汀·莱维伦茨是奥本海默基金（Oppenheimer Funds）高级副总裁，管理的奥本海默发展中市场基金（Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund）极为成功。萨维他·苏博拉玛尼亚是美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）美国股票策略主管。大卫·赫罗是Harris Associates国际股票首席投资官，管理的Oakmark国际基金表现一流。丹·福斯已在华尔街工作50年，如今是Loomis Sayles & Co.公司的副董事长，也是Loomis Sayles债券基金的基金经理。

    下面就是华尔街专家们与《财富》（Fortune）杂志资深专栏作家杰夫·科尔文的讨论节选：

    It's time to remember one of investing's eternal truths: Trouble can be an investor's best friend. America's economy is limping, China's is complicated, Europe's is shrinking -- and the wisest investors say, "Bring it on." They understand that most investors get discouraged by today's headlines and flee assets they should embrace, like equities and real estate, while piling into assets they should avoid, like low-yielding bonds. The misguided herd creates opportunity for the savvy few, who can buy alluring investments at bargain prices. At least that's the theory. Making it work requires expert insight, and most of us lack the time and training to identify overlooked gems with confidence.

    So we asked five expert market observers to share their wisdom. Stephen Auth is the chief investment officer in charge of equities at Federated Investors and has more than three decades of experience on Wall Street. Justin Leverenz is a senior vice president at Oppenheimer Funds and runs the highly successful Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund. Savita Subramanian is the head of U.S. equity strategy for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. David Herro is the chief investment officer of international equities at Harris Associates and the manager of the top-performing Oakmark International Fund (OAKIX). Dan Fuss, who has worked on Wall Street for five decades, is the vice chairman of Loomis Sayles & Co. and the manager of the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund (LSBDX).

    Here are edited excerpts of their discussion with Fortune's Geoff Colvin:

    不确定性四处弥漫。投资者在哪里能找到一些安心？

    赫罗：这样的不确定性事实上对股票投资者是件好事，特别是像我们这样的价值投资者。我们倒是愿意在低价时买进股票。而且，谈到买进质优价廉的股票，经济不确定性和宏观经济不稳定实际上帮了我们大忙。因此，如果你打算中长期投资——我得说，所谓投资就得中长期——现在是非常好的时机。

    莱维伦茨，你对新兴市场颇有研究。你认为投资者可以安心投资新兴市场吗？

    莱维伦茨：争议代表着投资机会，我同意这一点。现在真正是投资者（而非投机者）入市的时机。我认为，这一点对于新兴市场不能一概而论。中国市场可能是争议较多的一个时长。人们对它的权力交接交接有很多担忧。人们对于中国经济经过十年的两位数增长后，长期均衡增长率将何去何从有很多的担忧，对于中国的会计问题和企业治理也有很多疑虑。而中国也的确有一些出色的公司。因此，新兴市场中我看好中国。

    奥斯，如果普遍来看，你认为投资者可以放心投资的地方在哪里？

    奥斯：目前我没有看到哪里可以让人很放心。我们事实上是短线看空——这也是2008年以来我们首次回避投资股市。我们担心美国经济正在放缓。而与此同时，中国经济已经放缓，而欧洲经济即将步入衰退。因此，短期内我们告诉投资者要谨慎。但我们依然相信，我们正处于一个长期牛市之中，预计2013年下半年股市表现会相当不错。假如华盛顿最终就税收政策和减税措施达成长期协议，美国经济中大量被抑制的需求将得到释放。欧洲可能已经进入了复苏模式。而且，我们已经两年来首次开始买进中国股票。

    苏博拉玛尼亚，美国股市是你重点关注的领域。它的情况怎么样？

    苏博拉玛尼亚：在美国，过去一年，几乎所有有海外业务（不论比重大小）的股票都遭到了相当的抛售，目前估值极有吸引力。因此，我认为，现在确实是买入一些全球周期性股票的好时机，它们的估值比一、两年前便宜了很多。

    Uncertainty abounds. Where can an investor turn for a little comfort?

    Herro: This uncertainty is actually good for an equity investor, especially one who has a value bent, as we do. So we'd rather be buying stocks at low prices. And in order to get quality at low prices, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic instability are actually very good for us. So if you have a medium- or long-term investment horizon -- which, I would argue, is what investing is all about -- this is a very good time.

    Justin, the emerging world is where you spend a lot of time. Do you find comfort for investors there?

    Leverenz: I agree that controversy represents meaningful opportunity. It really is an entry point for investors rather than speculators. I think that that's not broadly true in emerging markets. I think China is perhaps the one really significant area of controversy. There is a lot of concern about political transition. There is enormous concern about where normalized growth will be after a decade of double-digit growth and a lot of concern about accounting difficulties, corporate governance in China. And there are some really wonderful companies. So I like China within the emerging world.

    Steve, you look broadly at everything that's available. Where do you find a little comfort for investors?

    Auth: Well, right now I don't find a lot of comfort. We're actually fairly near-term bears -- the first time we've pulled back on equities since 2008. We are nervous that the U.S. economy is slowing. It's coming at the same time that you've got a slowdown in China and Europe heading into recession. So near term, we're telling people to be cautious. However, we still think we're in a secular bull market for equities, and we think the second half of 2013 could be pretty good. We're going to have a lot of pent-up demand released on the economy, presuming Washington finally comes to a long-term agreement on tax policy and entitlements. Europe probably enters a recovery mode. And we've started to buy China for the first time in two years now.

    Savita, U.S. equities are your focus. How do things look to you?

    Subramanian: In the U.S., equities with any width of foreign exposure have sold off significantly over the year and are now trading at a pretty attractive valuation. So I think this is actually a good entry point for buying some of the global cyclicals that could be a lot cheaper than they were a year or two ago.

    通过投资美国股市可以成为一位相当国际化的投资者，有些人忽视了这一点。

    苏博拉玛尼亚：的确如此——美国公司40%或更多的销售额来自海外。这确实是一个全球多元化相当高的股票市场。

    福斯，债券是你重点关注的领域。一个大问题是：普遍观点一直认为利率会走高，但事实是没有。你认为什么时候会走高？

    福斯：我希望我知道。我的意思是，我们还是面对现实吧，债券的定价早已高高在上。按常识判断，一旦主要央行退后，利率很可能就会上升。有一些观点认为未来利率会下降，但最终结果（我认为这是最有力的论据）是利率上升。可能不会出现上世纪70年代末的状况（我希望不会），但利率会长期走高。现在，这是一个坏消息。但这也是一个好消息。只有当你与债券打交道的时间足够久，你才能知道该怎么做。你会说：“别再盯着今天的糟糕收益以及短期内可能令人心惊的亏损，多看看好消息。”而真正的好消息是，如果顺利的话，未来利率将上升，再投资回报也将上升；一切都取决于如何管理投资组合。与此同时，面临的风险也非常具体。这就是当前债市的本质。债市本质上就没那么激动人心。我的意思是，股市充满起伏，也更激动人心。但如果能提前打算，也能赚到不错的钱。

    利率是涨是跌，这个问题对于希望获得收益的很多投资者而言很重要。他们喜欢看到利率走高。奥斯，你怎么看？

    奥斯：我们一直告诉投资者，下一个可能出现大面积投资损失的领域就是美国国债。但时间可能是在几年之后，因为我们的美联储（Fed）决定在一段时间内保持利率低位。因此，我们认为短时间内不会出现债市抛盘，坦率说，2013年可能也不会。但会在某一时间出现。如果准备投资3年，我们认为可能不太适宜。会亏钱的。

    是的。苏博拉玛尼亚，这是你一直关注的另一个领域。

    苏博拉玛尼亚：没错。我认为利率回升事实上对股市是件好事，但对某些行业可能不利。在标普指数中，我最担心的是公用事业和电信类股，这些股票当前交易价格对应的市盈率已达到了荒谬的水平。“有点像是债券泡沫已经转到了股市，推高了类似债券股票的估值：管制类公用事业股票、电信和烟草股票。”这些股票全部都相当的昂贵。我估计，如果利率大幅上升，这些股票会遭到大举抛售。

    Some people overlook the fact that you can be a very global investor through U.S. equities.

    Subramanian: Exactly -- 40% or more of sales of U.S. companies are derived from overseas. They're actually a pretty globally diversified equity market.

    Dan, bonds are your focus. The big question: The conventional view has been that interest rates must go up, and they keep not going up. When will they?

    Fuss: Oh, I wish I knew. I mean, let's face it, bonds are priced in general higher than a kite. So common sense tells you that when and if the major central banks back off, rates will probably go up. There are some arguments for lower rates in the future, but the net outcome -- I think the strongest argument -- is for higher rates. Maybe not like the late '70s -- I hope not -- but a secular uptrend in interest rates. Now, that's the bad news. It's also the good news. You only know how to do this when you're out and about long enough, particularly with bonds. You say, "Take your focus away from the lousy income today and the horrifying capital loss that might be in front of you, and focus on the good news." And the good news literally, depending on how you run the portfolio, is hopefully interest rates will go up in the future and reinvestment returns will rise. And you're dealing with very specific risk in the meantime. And that's the nature of bonds today. Bonds by their nature are not exciting. I mean, stocks are exciting. But you can make darn good money in bonds if you think ahead.

    This issue of what's going to happen with interest rates is important for a lot of investors who want yield. They would love to have higher interest rates. Steve?

    Auth: We've been telling our investors that the next place you're going to lose a lot of money is inTreasury bonds. It's probably going to take a few years to get there, though, because you've got a Fed that is determined to keep rates low for a while. So we think the selloff of bonds is still out there somewhere, but probably not in 2013, frankly. But at some point. And if you take a three-year view, for us it's just not the place you want to be. You're going to lose money there.

    Right. Savita, this is another thing you've got to pay attention to.

    Subramanian: Oh, sure. I think a backup in rates would actually be good for the market, but it could hurt some sectors. The ones I worry about most in the S&P are utilities and telecom, which are actually trading at pretty ridiculous multiples at this point. I mean, it kind of feels like the bond bubble moved into the equity market and pushed up the valuations of the bond proxies, which are regulated utilities, telecom, tobacco stocks. These are all quite expensive. And I think that they could sell off pretty dramatically if we get a meaningful increase in interest rates.

    说得更具体一点。莱维伦茨，为什么你这么看好中国？

    莱维伦茨：人们对中国有很多的误读，包括政治和经济的误读，人们担心中国信贷如此迅猛的增长可能造成严重后果，担心中国房地产市场存在泡沫。这种误读掩盖了中国已经、并将继续取得的巨大成就。中国未来十年的年复合增长率将达到5%、6%或7%，即GDP规模再增5,000亿美元，这是世界上任何其他国家都难以企及的成绩。

    赫罗，在大多数人都认为要尽一切可能回避欧洲银行的时候，你投资欧洲银行的举动引起了关注。现在这些投资的情况怎么样？

    赫罗：由于法国、西班牙和意大利可能出现债务违约，人们一度认为这些银行一文不值。现在，我也从不认为希腊将走出困境，谁又知道葡萄牙会怎样呢？但爱尔兰的情况看起来正在好转。意大利将违约的假设是不正确的。对于很多优质的欧洲银行而言，它们唯一的过错就是总部设在欧洲，可能还持有一些意大利或西班牙的主权债券。你本可以按账面价值的25%或30%买入。 以意大利北部的联合圣保罗银行（ Intesa Sanpaolo）为例，该行的按揭贷款违约率极低。由于对主权债务危机的整体担忧，这些业务安全而乏味的银行股价一度被推至难以置信的低位。要进行这项投资，你必须相信这些相对安全的主权债券不会违约，这正是我们笃信的。你知道，过去四、五个月，它们的股价已经回升了50-60%。危机还没有结束，但我相信欧洲已经基本上脱离了险境。

    奥斯，有别于收益，你认为投资者应该从哪里寻找增长？

    奥斯：我们关注的一个领域是美国工业类股，我们认为美国正在出现某种程度的制造业复兴。未来三年我们的优势是，美国的能源价格相对低于世界其他地区。美国劳动力相对而言也已变得不那么昂贵了。因此，我们看好像卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）这样的公司。这是一家具有全球竞争力的大公司，但是也已经受到了中国经济放缓的影响。如果2013年下半年全球状况开始好转，我们相信这类股票将攀升。因此，我们看好拥有新兴市场业务的全球性周期类股。在美国，我们相信楼市将出现强劲复苏，看好拥有大量按揭贷款业务的银行。比如，太阳信托（SunTrust）就很有吸引力，它当前的估值很低。

    苏博拉玛尼亚，你认为增长在哪里？

    苏博拉玛尼亚：目前有个行业有点重现90年代末的高增长，但现金流更好，增长更稳定，这就是科技业。这是我看好的行业之一。该板块现在比年初时便宜。一些蓝筹科技股和蓝筹医药股也是如此。它们拥有丰富的后续产品线。股价非常便宜。而且，如果利率开始回升，股息投资者将撤出公用事业和电信股，届时这些板块就是他们想要进入的板块。因此，我们喜欢那种派息成长股：比如辉瑞（Pfizers）和礼来（Eli Lillys）。

    因此在科技股中，我们谈到的是微软（Microsoft）、谷歌（Google）和思科（Cisco）这样的公司吗？

    苏博拉玛尼亚：没错，正是这样。就是这些估值不断走低的大型老牌科技公司。人们担心它们未来将没有增长，但你知道，我想它们会和任何其他公司一样参与到周期性复苏之中。

    Let's get a little more specific. Justin, why are you so bullish on China?

    Leverenz: There are a lot of misconceptions about China -- political and economic misconceptions -- and the sense that there's got to be consequences associated with a very rapid increase in credit, that there's got to be a property bubble there. But that obscures the enormous progress that China has made and will continue to make. It will grow 5, 6, 7% compounding for a decade, and that means an additional half a trillion dollars of output, which no other country in the world can offer.

    David, you've gotten attention for investing in European banks, which most people thought were to be avoided at all costs. How's it working out?

    Herro: There was this assumption that these banks were worthless because France, Spain, and Italy were going to default on their debts. Now, I never thought that Greece was going to make it out of the woods, and who knows about Portugal? But Ireland looks like it's making progress. And to assume that Italy would default was just incorrect. For a lot of the quality European banks, their only crime was that they're based in Europe and they may have held sovereign debt of Italy or Spain. You could've bought them at 25% or 30% of book value. Take Intesa Sanpaolo in northern Italy, which has mortgages with extremely low defaults. These were safe, boring banks that were driven to unbelievably low prices because of the whole fear of the sovereign debt crisis. In order to make that investment, you had to believe that the relatively safer sovereigns weren't going to default, and that was our belief. You know, in the last four or five months, they've bounced 50, 60%. It's not over yet, but I think Europe is almost out of the woods.

    Steve, where would you guide investors looking for growth, as distinct from yield?

    Auth: Well, one place we look to is U.S. industrials, because we think there is a kind ofmanufacturing renaissance going on in the U.S. The advantage that we have over the next three years is relatively cheap energy relative to the rest of the world. U.S. labor has gotten relatively less expensive. So we like companies such as Caterpillar (CAT). That's a big, globally competitive company, which has been affected by the slowdown in China. And when the world starts to look like a better place in the second half of the year, we think stocks like that could run up. So we like global cyclicals for growth with that emerging-markets exposure. In the U.S. we like banks with heavy mortgage exposure because we see the housing business coming back pretty strong. For instance, SunTrust (STI) is pretty interesting and trading at a very cheap valuation.

    Savita, where do you see growth?

    Subramanian: Right now one of the sectors that has kind of morphed from the über-growth sector of the late '90s to more of a cash-return, stable-growth vehicle is technology. That's one of my favorite sectors. It's cheaper than it was at the beginning of the year. So some of those blue-chip techs -- and also blue-chip pharma. Their pipelines are refilling. The stocks are very cheap. And the dividend investors that are going to have to come out of utilities and telecom when rates start to go back up -- that's the place they're going to go to. So we like that sector as a kind of dividend-growth play: the Pfizers (PFE) and Eli Lillys (LLY) of the world.

    So in tech, are we thinking Microsoft (MST), Google (GOOG), Cisco (CSCO) -- those names?

    Subramanian: Yeah, sure, exactly. Big-cap, old-fashioned technology companies that have gotten cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. There are fears that they're ex-growth, but, you know, just like anything else, I think they'll participate in a cyclical recovery just as much as any other stock.

    奥斯：关于苹果（Apple），我有一点要说。你知道，这是一只很有争议的股票，在它不断向国际市场和其他行业扩张的过程中未来有如此之多的增长引擎。这是一家非常出色的公司。在我看来，苹果的问题是，它大多数利润都来自手机部门，利润率极为亮丽。因此，我认为，你或许可以分析苹果作为一家公司是成功的，但它的利润率存在压力，特别是随着三星（Samsung）等公司不断拓展智能手机市场。因此，我们在科技行业看好的一只股票是高通（Qualcomm），我把它叫做“军火制造商”，向正在酣战的苹果和三星出售弹药。它左右逢源，我不必担心最终谁会赢得智能手机之战。

    莱维伦茨，你现在看好哪些公司？

    莱维伦茨：我想印度软件公司已不再像10年前那样属于结构性成长型公司，它们更大程度上已是周期性公司。我持有印孚瑟斯（Infosys）和PCS Technology科技公司。它们都是很出色的公司，有巨大的机会可以沿着产业链扩张，与埃森哲（Accentures）和IBM等公司竞争。

    在中国，我要提到的公司是百度（Baidu）。我认为，它是一个极佳的投资机会。这家公司和世界上所有搜索引擎公司一样，具有天然的垄断倾向。百度这家公司，如今你能以明年预期每股收益的15倍买入。我想未来五年这家公司的年复合增长率可以轻松达到25%-30%，因此从数字上看非常诱人。

    赫罗，除了投资大银行，你还投资了很多海外的小公司，大多数美国人可能都没听说过。你看好哪些？

    赫罗：是的，在我们投资的小盘股中，比如就有一家日本公司广濑电子（Hirose Electric），专门生产消费电子产品的连接器。公司利润非常不错。他们很懂资本配置。目前股价较低。需要说明的是，在日本很容易获得偏低的估值。

    苏博拉玛尼亚，我想问问你关于资产配置的问题，对于今天的个人投资者来说，这好像不是个大问题。

    苏博拉玛尼亚：目前我非常看好股市。这与今天所有华尔街策略师的建议正好相反。我们定期跟踪华尔街平衡型基金的策略师们的平均股票配置权重。令人吃惊的是，从过去30年的数据来看，华尔街策略师们总体而言从未像今天这样看淡股市。他们建议给予股票44%的权重，远远低于过去几十年60-70%的基准。

    Auth: I'd just throw in one point on Apple (AAPL). You know, it is a controversial stock because it has so many growth drivers ahead of it in its expansion into the corporate world and into the international world. And it's a wonderful company. The issue for me on Apple is that most of its profits come from the phone division, and the margins are just spectacular. So I think you could have a case where Apple as a company is successful, but they get margin pressure, particularly with the Samsungs of the world coming into that smartphone market. And so one of our stocks in tech that we like is Qualcomm (QCOM), which I kind of view as the arms manufacturer selling bullets to companies in a shooting war -- Apple and Samsung. They win either way, and I don't have to worry about who wins the smartphone war.

    Justin, what are some companies that you like now?

    Leverenz: I think the Indian software companies have become not structural growth companies like they were 10 years ago but much more cyclical. I own Infosys (INFY) and PCS Technology. They're wonderful companies with massive opportunities in terms of expanding up the value chain and competing with the Accentures (ACN) and the IBM Globals (IBM) of the world.

    In China, the company I would mention is Baidu (BIDU). I think it's a really terrific opportunity here. It is a business like all search businesses around the globe that's got natural monopoly tendencies. Baidu is a company that you can acquire today on 15 times next year's earnings. I think it could easily grow 25% to 30% compounded in the next five years, so the math is reasonably compelling.

    David, besides investing in big banks, you invest in a lot of small, global companies that most Americans have never heard of. Who do you like?

    Herro: Well, in our small-cap strategy, for instance, there's a Japanese company called Hirose Electric. It makes connectors for consumer electronic gadgets. It's very profitable. They're good capital allocators. It sells at a low price. And again, being in Japan is conducive to low valuation.

    Savita, I want to ask you, then, about the asset-allocation question, because for individual investors today it is really a huge issue.

    Subramanian: I'm a big fan of equities at this point. That's basically the exact opposite of what all of the Wall Street strategists are recommending today. One of the things that we track on a regular basis is the average equity allocation of Wall Street strategists to equities in a balanced fund. And what's remarkable is that, if you look over the last 30 years, Wall Street strategists have never been, in aggregate, as bearish on equities as they are today. They're recommending an allocation of about 44% to equities, where the benchmark has been roughly between 60% and 70% over the last few decades.

    福斯：前两天早上，我作为一些基金投资委员会的主席就遇到了资产配置问题。这些基金的股票配置上限是70%，债券下限是30%。我们目前的配置就是30%债券，70%股票。我得说，如果情况没有变化，就按上限投资股票，按下限投资债券。

    奥斯：华尔街如此悲观的一个原因是我说的标普500指数的双顶。没人愿意讨论这一点，但到我办公室的人全都相信我们可能翻不过双顶。我说的是2000年和2007年3月达到的1550点顶部。你知道，如果将今天标普500指数的估值与2000年触顶时相比，美国GDP规模增长率为50%，全球GDP已经翻番。我想，要翻过双顶可能会有一番挣扎，但当我们翻过去时，你会看到华尔街变得更乐观了。你知道，市场中有10年期的标普500指数期货。这是一个掉期市场。如果今天你出去买一份10年期的标普500指数期货，期货价格比当前指数点位低了10%。

    哇！

    苏博拉玛尼亚：我想很多人可能都被吓坏了，如果十年前你买了股票，可能根本就没赚到钱。但人们都忘了我们现在已处于尾端。如果回顾股市历史，投资十年亏钱的概率是6%。问题是我们现在就在这6%内，所有人记得这一点。但事实的真相是，现在概率已变得有利，估值也变得有利，企业利润继续创下新高。

    还有什么好的、我们没有谈到的想法要分享？

    奥斯：我要补充两只股票：中国国航（Air China）。这是另一只走势落后的股票。随着中国经济复苏，该股必将受益于复苏之势，它的市场份额在上升，在亚洲航空业仍具有巨大的增长潜力。我们还看好西门子（Siemens），这家大公司将受益于德国和全球经济复苏。

    赫罗：如果在股市中深挖，哪些领域价格最便宜？在日本，丰田（Toyota）、Daiwa、佳能（Canon）等公司是人们可以随意买入的蓝筹股。有些欧洲金融公司的股价还没有反弹，比如瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）。它的私人银行平台非常出色，产生像年金一样的优异现金流。其他看好的欧洲蓝筹股是像戴姆勒（Daimler）这样的全球性公司，它不仅生产梅赛德斯（Mercedes）这样的豪车，也有普通商用车。因此，我认为投资者应该关注的是这类目前被冷落的质优价廉股。

    译者：杨智

   Fuss: I was faced with asset allocation yesterday morning as chair of the committee that does that for some funds, where we have maximum 70% equities and minimum 30% fixed. We're at 30% fixed, 70% equities. I would say, all other things being equal, go max equities and minimum bonds.

    Auth: One thing that makes Wall Street so bearish is what I call the double top on the S&P. And no one wants to talk about it, but guys come to my office all the time, and they all believe that we can't get through the double top. I'm referring to the 1550 top in 2000 and then March of 2007. And, you know, if you look at the valuation of the S&P today compared with when it hit that top in 2000, the U.S. GDP is 50% larger and the global GDP is double. I think there's going to be a little bit of a battle to get through it, but I think when we do, you'll see Wall Street get more bullish. You know, there's a market in 10-year futures on the S&P. It's a swap market. And if you go out today and try to buy the S&P 10 years from now, you can buy it at 10% below current levels.

    Wow!

    Subramanian: I think that everybody is spooked by the fact that for the last 10 years if you bought equities, you would have made no money essentially. But what everybody forgets is that we're living in the tail right now. So if you go back historically and look at the equity market, you had a 6% chance of losing money over a 10-year time horizon. The problem is that we're living in that 6%, and that's what everybody remembers. But the truth of the matter is that you've got probability on your side, you've got valuations on your side, and earnings continue to hit new highs.

    Any more best ideas to share, if we haven't touched on them?

    Auth: I'll add two other quick names: Air China. That's another stock that's underperformed. As China does recover, it's levered to that recovery, and it's growing share, and that's still a big growth business out in Asia. We also like Siemens (SI) as a big German recovery story and a global player.

    Herro: If you dig down in equities, what are some of the cheapest areas? In Japan companies like Toyota (TM), Daiwa (DWHAY), and Canon (CAJ) are blue chips that people can easily buy. Some of the European financials that still haven't rebounded, like Credit Suisse (CS), which has a great private bank platform that generates good annuity-like cash flows. Another European blue chip to like is a company like Daimler, which has a global presence, not only with Mercedes luxury vehicles but in commercial vehicles. So I think these are the types of things investors should be looking at: quality that's out of favor and selling at low prices.