人世间没有什么能比得上拥有一位专业向导。无论是攀登珠穆朗玛峰，还是在股市中上下求索，听听那些在这一领域经验丰富者的意见，总能给人们带来收获。因此，今年我们转向了这些睿智的投资向导寻求建议：他们洞悉众多行业动向，精通各类股票投资风格，建立了长期杰出的投资表现。本文列出了他们认为2013年最有增长潜力的15大金股。如果有行家指点迷津，要找到路总是会容易很多。

Align 科技公司

克雷·布莱瑟尔Buffalo Discovery基金

股票代码：(ALGN)

所属行业：科技

    Buffalo Discovery基金管理资产规模4.30亿美元，晨星（Morningstar）数据显示，过去10年该基金平均每年增长10.6%，高于同类基金的7.5%。Buffalo Discovery的联席经理克雷·布莱瑟尔相信创新无处不在，创新并不限于科技本身。

    一个很好的例子就是：Align科技公司（Align Technology）。这家隐适美（Invisalign）隐型牙箍制造商年收入5.50亿美元，给牙齿正畸行业带来了颠覆性革命。这家公司生产的这种透明隐形牙箍，可以像矫正器一样带上和取下，最初作为成人传统金属牙箍的替代品而开始流行。如今，这家公司正在进入青少年市场，这一市场占到每年260万例正畸病例的2/3。（自从成人产品发货量出现季度下滑以来，该股股价已经下跌28%，但布莱瑟尔并不担忧，因为他看好青少年市场的潜力。）布莱瑟尔相信，其基金持有的这只重仓股未来五年将继续以每年15%左右的速度增加收入，利润增速将更快。正如布莱瑟尔所言：“只要跟牙齿正畸师和牙医聊一聊，（就会发现）这是患者走进诊所唯一要求指定品牌的产品。”

    ——Amy Feldman

    There's nothing like having a local guide. Whether you're a climber trying to scale the heights of Mount Everest or an investor exploring a stock, you can benefit from the insight of a person who spends endless hours learning a particular terrain. That's why we've turned this year to sage investing guides who've honed their expertise in a dozen sectors and stock styles, delivering lengthy records of superior performance. Read on to discover their most promising stock picks for 2013. It's always easier to find a path when someone who knows it is there to point it out for you.

Align Technology

Clay Brethour Buffalo Discovery

Ticker: (ALGN)

Sector pick: Technology

    Clay Brethour, co-manager of the $430 million Buffalo Discovery Fund (BUFTX)-- up 10.6% a year on average for the past 10 years, vs. 7.5% for its category, according to Morningstar -- likes to think about innovation broadly rather than about technology per se.

    Case in point: Align Technology, the $550 million (in revenue) maker of Invisalign invisible braces, which have transformed orthodontics. The company's clear aligner trays, which pop in and out like retainers, first became popular with adults as an alternative to the despised traditional metal braces. Now the company is making inroads in the teenage market, which represents three-quarters of the 2.6 million orthodontics cases begun each year. (Shares have fallen 28% since a quarterly decline in shipments to adults, but Brethour isn't worried because of the potential he sees in the teen market.) He thinks the company, a top holding of his fund, can continue to increase revenue about 15% or so a year, and expand profits at an even faster rate, for the next five years. As Brethour puts it, "If you talk to orthodontists and dentists, this is the only product where patients come in and ask for it by brand."

    --Amy Feldman

滨特尔

扎克·沙弗兰常春藤科技基金

股票代码：(PNR)

行业：科技

    常春藤科技基金（Ivy Science and Technology）管理资产规模15亿美元，过去10年都跑赢了市场。它的年化回报率11.8%，高于同类基金的7.5%。2001年以来，基金经理扎克·沙弗兰在投资大型科技公司的同时，加入了更多的另类股票。如今占基金资产2.2%的滨特尔（Pentair）就是一只另类股票。沙弗兰将其视为“全球水概念股”。滨特尔制造过滤设备和抽水系统。沙弗兰非常看好美国市场（家庭、酒店和水疗中心都开始注重如何更高效地利用水资源）和发展中市场（随着经济发展，需要更多更好的基础设施）的前景。

    近期，滨特尔(最近12个月营收35亿美元)完成了与泰科国际（Tyco International）流体控制业务价值49亿美元的合并交易。这将使得滨特尔更加全球化，销售额预计也将增加超过一倍。“它们可以扩展产品线和覆盖范围，”沙弗兰说。以最近49美元的价格计算，该股股价约为明年预期收益的15倍，股息收益率1.8%。但最让沙弗兰感到振奋的是：滨特尔设定在2015年前每年利润增长50%的目标。沙弗兰认为该公司能够超越这一目标。

    ——A.F.

Pentair

Zach Shafran Ivy Science and Technology

Ticker: (PNR)

Sector pick: Technology

    Ivy Science and Technology (WSTAX), with $1.5 billion in assets, has trounced the market over the past decade, returning an annualized 11.8%, vs. 7.5% for its category. Manager Zach Shafran has been mixing big tech companies with more contrarian plays since 2001. Pentair, which accounts for 2.2% of the fund's assets, falls into the latter category. Shafran views it as "a story about water on a global basis." Pentair makes filtration devices and pumping systems, and he gushes about markets in the U.S. (as homeowners, hotels, and spas become more efficient with water) and in the developing world (as growing economies fund needed infrastructure).

    Pentair, which had revenue of $3.5 billion in the latest 12 months, recently completed a $4.9 billion merger with the flow-control business of Tyco International. That will make the company more global and more than double sales. "They can expand their product line and reach," Shafran says. At a recent $49, the stock trades at roughly 15 times next year's estimated earnings and has a dividend yield of 1.8%. But Shafran is most excited by Pentair's goal of a 50% increase in annual profits by 2015. Shafran thinks the company can exceed that figure.

    --A.F.

自助式仓储服务公司Public Storage

布莱恩·琼斯Neuberger Berman Real Estate基金

股票代码：(PSA)

行业：房地产

    布莱恩·琼斯和史蒂夫·什格卡瓦管理着6.70亿美元的Neuberger Berman房地产基金（ Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund）。这只基金只持有40只股票，而前10大股票就占到了基金资产的近半。这样的策略给他们带来了良好的收益：晨星的数据显示，过去10年这只基金的平均年化收益率为13.3%，高于同类基金的10.3%。

    琼斯最看好的2013年股票是美国最大的自助式仓储公司Public Storage，该股目前占到Neuberger Berman基金资产总额的5%以上。Neuberger Berman基金对这家公司倍加推崇。Public Storage作为这个高度分散的市场中最大的一家公司（其2,200处仓库仅占全国50,000处仓库的4%），拥有竞争对手难以企及的财务实力和营销影响力。琼斯说：“它们拥有的自助式仓储设施是第二位的两倍多。”

    Public Storage声称，这些设施的出租率已超过90%，有助于公司提高租赁价格。琼斯表示，由于大公司具有经济优势，而新建仓储设施又存在融资困难，这一市场必将整合，Public Storage将从中获益。

    ——A.F.

Public Storage

Brian Jones Neuberger Berman Real Estate

Ticker: (PSA)

Sector pick: Real Estate

    Brian Jones and Steve Shigekawa, managers of the $670 million Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund (NBRFX), own just 40 stocks, with the top 10 representing nearly half the fund's assets. That strategy has served them well: The fund has landed an average annualized gain of 13.3% for the past 10 years, vs. 10.3% for the category, according to Morningstar.

    Jones's favorite stock for 2013 is Public Storage, the largest self-storage company in the U.S., which represents more than 5% of the fund's assets. The REIT has a lot going for it. As the largest player in a fragmented market -- its 2,200 facilities are just 4% of the nation's 50,000 -- Public Storage has the financial strength and marketing clout that rivals lack. "They own more than twice as many self-storage facilities as their nearest competitor," Jones says.

    The company boasts occupancy levels above 90%, which has helped Public Storage boost its rental rates. With the economics favoring big players and a dearth of financing for construction of storage spaces, the market is primed to consolidate, Jones says, and Public Storage should benefit.

    --A.F.

吉利德科学

克里斯·詹纳T. Rowe Price Health Sciences基金

股票代码：(GILD, 财富500强)

行业：医药

    曾经当过医生的克里斯·詹纳从2000年开始管理炙手可热的T. Rowe Price Health Sciences基金。这只资产规模49亿美元的基金在过去10年实现年化收益率13.6%，显著高于同类基金的9.0%。詹纳开出的处方是：生物科技巨头吉利德科学，该基金的一只重仓股。吉利德（Gilead）曾因一款艾滋病药丸（日服一次）名声大噪。詹纳相信它的一款丙肝新药sofosbuvir应能重现这样的成功。相比当前标准疗法使用的干扰素，这款新药的治愈率更高，毒性更低。

    市场庞大：美国有超过400万丙肝患者。“丙肝市场价值将超过100亿美元，”詹纳说。“我们现在正处于黎明前夕。”他预计2016年年前，吉利德的营收年均增幅将达到16%，而每股收益年均增长27%。以最近股价75美元计，这只股票并不便宜——2012年以来累计上涨84%，最近股价是今年普遍预期每股收益的20倍。詹纳建议，可等待股价回落之机买进。但估计需要耐心。詹纳说：“在同业组中，该公司的营收和利润增长将无人能及。”

    ——A.F.

Gilead Sciences

Kris Jenner T. Rowe Price Health Sciences

Ticker: (GILD, Fortune 500)

Sector pick: Health care

    Kris Jenner, a former doctor, has operated the white-hot T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund (PRHSX) since 2000. With $4.9 billion in assets, it has delivered an annualized 13.6% gain for the past decade, drubbing its peers' 9.0%. Jenner's prescription: shares of biotech giant Gilead Sciences, one of his fund's largest positions. Gilead made its mark with a once-a-day HIV pill, and Jenner thinks it can repeat that success with a new treatment for hepatitis C. Known as sofosbuvir, it has a higher cure rate with less toxicity than interferon, the standard treatment, he says.

    The market is huge: More than 4 million people have hepatitis C in the U.S. "The hepatitis C market will be in excess of $10 billion," says Jenner, "and we are at the dawn of that market." He believes Gilead's revenue could rise 16% a year through 2016, with earnings per share soaring 27% annually. At a recent $75, the shares aren't cheap -- they're up 84% since the beginning of 2012 and trade at 20 times this year's consensus forecast. Jenner advises waiting for a pullback before buying. But be patient. "In its peer group," he says, "it's going to be unrivaled in terms of its revenues and earnings growth."

    --A.F.

穆迪

查克·阿克尔Akre Focus

股票代码：(MCO)

行业：金融

    “穆迪（Moody's）当然不是一家没有争议的公司，”查克·阿克尔承认。这样的说法太轻描淡写了。这家评级公司在金融危机期间给予有毒债务以金光闪闪的AAA评级，招来如潮的恶评。但穆迪扛过了那段时期——阿克尔相信它的未来是光明的。这位投资经理所管理的12亿美元Akre焦点基金自2009年以来年均回报率15%，好于84%的同类基金(他前一只基金在十多年的时间里年均回报率达到12.6%)。阿克尔指出：“投资债市就不能不了解它们的评级。”因此，穆迪有“极好的定价力”，这也是为何它能产生近30%的自有现金流利润率。

    这只股票最近涨势不错，但阿克尔指出，该股目前16倍的动态市盈率仅及危机前估值的一半。由于声誉可能受损，这只股票的股价仍属便宜。他说，事实上欧洲危机甚至有利于穆迪。随着欧洲银行业停止放贷，企业如果要筹集现金，就只能发行债务。阿克尔也看好穆迪在美国的业务前景：“在这样的低利率环境下，债券融资的需求惊人。”

    --Mina Kimes

Moody's

Chuck Akre Akre Focus

Ticker: (MCO)

Sector pick: Finance

    "Moody's is a company that is certainly not without its controversies," admits Chuck Akre. That's quite an understatement. The ratings agency was famously vilified during the financial crisis for awarding gilded AAA ratings to toxic debt. But Moody's survived -- and Akre thinks its future is bright. The money manager, whose $1.2 billion Akre Focus Fund (AKREX) has returned 15% a year since 2009, besting 84% of peers (after he averaged 12.6% a year for more than a decade at his previous fund), notes, "You can't go to the debt market without one of their ratings, period." As a result, Moody's has "fabulous pricing power," which is why it generates free-cash-flow margins of nearly 30%.

    The stock has been on a tear recently, but Akre thinks that at 16 times next year's earnings -- half its pre-crisis valuation -- it remains a bargain because of the lingering damage to its reputation. Moody's could actually benefit from the crisis in Europe, he says. As banks there stop lending, companies will have to issue bonds if they want to raise cash. Akre also likes Moody's prospects in the U.S.: "The need for debt financing in this low-interest-rate environment is staggering."

    --Mina Kimes

CMS能源公司

莫拉·肖尼西MFS公用事业

股票代码：(CMS, 财富500强)

行业：公用事业

    由于投资者担心股息税可能上升，高派息的公用事业股票受到冲击。46亿美元MFS公用事业基金（MFS Utilities）的经理莫拉·肖尼西认为，市场反应过度。肖尼西说：“试图按政府思路投资是输家的游戏。”过去十年，这只基金的表现超过了98%的公用事业基金，年均回报率14.5%。她依然看好高派息股，首选股之一就是密西根公用事业公司CMS能源（CMS Energy），股息收益率4%。

    CMS是一家受管制的公用事业公司，即定价由当地一个委员会决定。肖尼西表示，密歇根监管部门已变得“非常透明、理性”，使得CMS能获得不错的回报率。肖尼西预计，未来五年CMS的利润增长将达到4%-6%，高于大多数同业。虽然前景出众，目前CMS的估值仍较同业折价10%左右。肖尼西表示，这是因为过去密歇根的监管环境较差，公司过去负债太多。目前，CMS的资产负债表已经有了改善，肖尼西预计公司或许不久就能获得投资级信用评级。

    --M.K.

CMS Energy

Maura Shaughnessy MFS Utilities

Ticker: (CMS, Fortune 500)

Sector pick: Utilities

    As investors fret that taxes on dividends may rise, high-yielding utility stocks are taking a beating. Maura Shaughnessy, manager of the $4.6 billion MFS Utilities Fund (MMUFX), thinks the market is overreacting. "Trying to invest in what the government is going to do is a loser's game," says Shaughnessy, whose fund has powered past 98% of utilities funds over the last decade, returning an average of 14.5% a year. She still likes dividend stocks, and one of her favorites is CMS Energy, a Michigan-based utility with a 4% yield.

    CMS is a regulated utility, which means a local board sets its rates. Shaughnessy says that Michigan regulators have become "extremely transparent and rational," enabling CMS to earn a decent return. Shaughnessy expects CMS to boost earnings at a rate of 4% to 6% over the next five years, while most peers earn less. Despite its superior prospects, CMS is trading at a discount of about 10% to the group. Shaughnessy says that's because the regulatory climate in Michigan used to be worse and because the company used to carry too much debt. CMS has improved its balance sheet, she says, making it likely to receive an investment-grade credit rating soon.

    --M.K.

奥伯尼国际

布莱德·伊文斯Heartland Value Plus

股票代码：(AIN)

股票类型：小盘股

    布莱德·伊文斯喜欢别人痛恨的股票。这个策略推动Heartland Value Plus过去五年取得了5.8%的年化回报率，击败了95%的竞争对手。Albany International就属于典型的伊文斯选的股票。这家公司过去是一家微型集团企业，出售的商品从工业门到盘绳无所不包。如今，它有两大块业务。一块是盈利（微薄）的造纸机织物和辊轴业务，另一块是生产轻质节能的工程复合材料，主要用于航天和国防。这块业务早就在为波音（Boeing）、空中客车（Airbus）等新机型配置的LEAP发动机提供风扇叶片，伊文斯非常看好其前景。这块业务目前的销售额只有6,000万美元（造纸业务近7亿美元），但伊文斯相信，到2020年，复合材料业务的销售额将达到3-5亿美元（经营利润率20%）。该股的动态市盈率为13.5倍，股息收益率2.6%。“市场估值将这家公司视为一家零增长的造纸机织物公司，以这样的水平，它的估值非常有吸引力，”伊文斯表示。除了复合材料业务，他说，Albany“没有得到应有的理解、青睐和关注。”

    ——A.F.

Albany International

Brad Evans Heartland Value Plus

Ticker: (AIN)

Small and large pick: Small-caps

    Brad Evans loves stocks that others hate. That approach has propelled Heartland Value Plus (HRVIX) to annualized 5.8% returns over the past five years, beating 95% of its competitors. Albany International is a classic Evans choice. The company used to be a mini-conglomerate, selling everything from industrial doors to fake down. Now it's got two key units: a lucrative (but flat) business in fabrics and belts used to make paper, and a line that produces engineered composites, which are lightweight and save fuel, mostly for aerospace and defense. Already providing fan blades for the LEAP engine, used on new planes from Boeing and Airbus, this unit could take off, in Evans's view. It represents only $60 million in sales, vs. nearly $700 million for the paper operations, but Evans argues that composites could be a $300 million to $500 million operation (with 20% operating margins) by 2020. The stock has a forward P/E of 13.5 and a yield of 2.6%. "The market is valuing the company as a no-growth paper machine clothing company, and it is very attractively valued on just that metric," Evans says. Add in the composites business, he argues, and Albany is "misunderstood, underloved, and underfollowed."

    --A.F.

电子支付服务供应商VeriFone Systems

凡·特兰Delaware Select Growth基金

股票代码：(PAY)

股票类型：大盘股

    凡·特兰关注变革：那些产品或行业正处于大变革中的公司，变革往往也会抑制股价。她致力于发掘长期赢家，用她的话来说就是“时间套利”。特兰从2010年开始共同管理Delaware Select Growth基金，这样的策略帮助这只基金在过去十年实现了9.1%的年回报，同期标普指数的涨幅为6.2%。

    特兰深信当POS支付行业的震荡变革完成时，VeriFone会成为赢家。支付方式从现金到卡片、再到如今的手机支付的变迁，移动支付Square、贝宝（PayPal）和谷歌（Google）等新的移动支付公司不断涌现，推动行业大洗牌，过去两年VeriFone的市场份额已经下降了20%，虽然公司仍期待2013年实现销售额增长11%。特兰怀疑像Square这样的新公司能否拿到巨额投资实现规模化扩张。VeriFone在美国软件和POS终端市场拥有高占有率（60%），而且“没有将自己的业务押注于任何特定的支付领域，”她说。“它更多地是在现有生态系统中拓展，推动可能的趋势。”

    --Ryan Derousseau

VeriFone Systems

Van Tran Delaware Select Growth

Ticker: (PAY)

Small and large pick: Large-caps

    Van Tran focuses on transformation: Companies whose products or industries are in the midst of major change, which tends to depress stock prices. She aims to predict the long-term winner -- she calls it "time arbitrage." That strategy has helped the Delaware Select Growth Fund(DVEAX), which Tran began co-managing in 2010, produce 9.1% annual returns over 10 years, vs. 6.2% for the S&P.

    Tran is betting that when the shakeup is complete among companies that handle point-of-sale payments, VeriFone will emerge triumphant. The ongoing shift from cash to plastic and now phones, combined with the entry of new mobile-payment players like Square, PayPal, and Google, has shaken the industry and helped push VeriFone shares down 20% over two years even as the company expects 11% sales growth in 2013. Tran is skeptical that newbies like Square can swing the massive investment needed to scale up. VeriFone, with its software and high market share in point-of-sale terminals -- 60% in the U.S. -- is "not betting their business on any given payment technology," she says. "It's more about working within the existing ecosystem and enabling what might come."

    --Ryan Derousseau

美国合众银行

蒂姆·哈奇BBH 核心优选基金

股票代码：(USB, 财富500强)

股票类型：大盘股

    大多数银行都很复杂，但美国合众银行（U.S. Bancorp）靠保持简单本色，实现了大发展。蒂姆·哈奇管理的35亿美元BBH核心优选基金（BBH Core Select）自2007年以来年均回报率6.4%，轻松击败了标普500指数1.4%的年均涨幅。美国合众银行直接明了的业务模式深深地吸引了他。他说，美国合众银行不依赖交易和投资银行，靠传统方式赚钱：吸纳储蓄，发放贷款以及客户财富管理。“如果让监管部门许个愿，”他说。“一定是希望所有银行都像美国合众银行那样简单。”

    当然，这家全美第五大银行在行业危机中也并不是全然无事：新的监管规定和创纪录的低利率（抑制银行利润，因为银行不能对贷款加收太多利息）。但美国合众银行仍然受益于庞大的支付处理业务，即帮助零售商户处理电子交易。“这是一个不错的利润来源，无需太多资本，”哈奇表示。他补充称，在美国所有的大型商业银行中，美国合众银行的权益收益率最高，资产回报率蕞高。但该股当前11.8倍的静态市盈率仍低于行业(本身已低)12.6倍的市盈率。

    --M.K.

U.S. Bancorp

Tim Hartch BBH Core Select

Ticker: (USB, Fortune 500)

Small and large pick: Large-caps

    Most banks are complicated. U.S. Bancorp has thrived by keeping it simple. Tim Hartch, whose $3.5 billion BBH Core Select fund (BBTRX) has returned 6.4% a year since 2007, easily besting the S&P 500's 1.4% annual return, is impressed by U.S. Bancorp's straightforward business model. Instead of relying on trading and investment banking, he says, it makes money the old-fashioned way: collecting deposits, issuing loans, and managing people's wealth. "If the regulators could have their wish," he says, "all banks would look like U.S. Bancorp."

    The country's fifth-largest bank isn't immune to its sector's challenges: new regulations and record-low interest rates (which compress profits, since banks can't charge much for loans). But it is insulated by its sizable payment-processing business, which helps retailers handle electronic transactions. "It's a nice earnings stream that doesn't require a significant amount of capital," says Hartch. Of all the big commercial banks in the country, he adds, U.S. Bancorp reaps the highest return on equity and the highest return on assets. Yet with a P/E of 11.8 times trailing earnings, it trades below the (already low) sector P/E of 12.6.

    --M.K.

福特公司

迈克尔·列文Oppenheimer Equity Income基金

股票代码：(F, 财富500强)

股票类型：派息股

    迈克尔·列文表示，美国汽车市场反弹尚未结束。该行业今年预计将销售约1,400万辆汽车——相比2009年的低点大为改善，但仍显著低于2000年的高点1,700万辆。列文称：“我认为，大量需求没有得到释放。”他带领下的资产规模达34亿美元的Oppenheimer Equity Income基金在过去十年实现了8.2%的年回报率。“保有车辆的平均车龄已处于历史高点；有很多老车需要置换。”因此，列文相信，随着住宅建筑活动回升、承包商需要购买更多皮卡卡车，汽车制造商将能从中受益。

    列文认为整个行业前景光明，但依靠自身力量、走出经济衰退阴影的福特（Ford）尤其具有吸引力。目前，该股股价仅及明年每股收益的8倍。由于欧洲销售滑坡，福特股价受到冲击，但列文相信随着福特缩减欧洲地区的制造产能，业绩将会得到改善。与此同时，该公司提供1.7%的股息收益率。列文表示，由于福特的资产负债情况非常好，福特有必要的资金，明年至少可将派息增加50%。

    --M.K.

Ford

Michael Levine Oppenheimer Equity Income

Ticker: (F, Fortune 500)

Small and large pick: Dividends

    Michael Levine says the American auto comeback isn't over. The industry is set to sell about 14 million cars this year -- a dramatic improvement from the lows of 2009 but still well below the peak of 17 million in 2000. "I think there's a lot of pent-up demand," says Levine, who has driven the $3.4 billion Oppenheimer Equity Income (OAEIX) Fund to 8.2% annual returns over the past decade. "The age of the fleet is at an all-time high; there are a lot of older cars out there that need to be replaced." On top of that, Levine thinks automakers will benefit as housing construction rebounds and contractors need to buy more pickup trucks.

    Levine sees promise in the whole sector but says that Ford, which survived the recession without a bailout, is especially compelling. Its stock is trading at just eight times next year's earnings. Ford's shares have suffered because of skidding sales in Europe, but Levine thinks its results will improve as it shrinks its manufacturing capacity in the region. In the meantime the company offers a 1.7% dividend yield. Because it has a rock-solid balance sheet, he says, Ford has the wherewithal to bulk up its payout by at least 50% over the next year.

    --M.K.

康卡斯特

苏珊·肯普勒TIAA-CREF Growth & Income基金

股票代码：(CMCSA)

股票类型：派息股

    2005年，苏珊·肯普勒接管TIAA-CREF 30亿美元的Growth and Income基金。在此期间，她的策略没有过太多改变。她一直致力于投资利润和现金流呈现增长的优质公司。其所在基金过去十年的年化回报为7.7%，高于标普指数的6.4%。

    康卡斯特（Comcast）目前正在经历转型，提供了肯普勒看好的增长潜力。这家有线巨头2011年购入的有全国广播公司（NBCUniversal ）51%股权提供了新的收入来源。由于奥运会和政治竞选期间庞大的广告支出，以及全国广播公司的收视率得到改善，第三季度全国广播公司这部分收入同比增长了32%。康卡斯特将继续增持全国广播公司的股权，直到2017年达到100%持股。与此同时，它的有线业务（营收占比63%）已削减了基础设施支出，留出派息、回购和研发所需的60亿美元现金。“这块业务再也不是每个月就收收有线费了，”肯普勒表示。“他们拥有（有线和互联网）技术，这使其优于同业。”

    --R.D.

Comcast

Susan Kempler TIAA-CREF Growth & Income

Ticker: (CMCSA)

Small and large pick: Dividends

    Not much has changed in Susan Kempler's strategy since she took the helm of TIAA-CREF's $3 billion Growth and Income Fund (TIIRX) in 2005. She has always sought high-quality companies with rising earnings and cash flow, delivering 7.7% annualized returns over 10 years, vs. 6.4% for the S&P.

    Comcast is undergoing a transition that offers the growth Kempler likes. The cable giant's 51% stake in NBCUniversal, which it purchased in 2011, has brought a new source of revenue, which boomed 32% in the third quarter compared with the year-earlier quarter because of strong ad spending for the Olympics and political campaigns, and improving ratings for its once-moribund network lineup. Comcast will continue to up its stake until it owns 100% of NBCUniversal in 2017. Meanwhile its cable business, which accounts for 63% of revenue, has pared infrastructure spending, leaving cash for $6 billion worth of dividends, buybacks, and R&D. "The business isn't just collecting monthly cable bills anymore," says Kempler. "They're powered by [cable and Internet] technology that makes it better than its peers."

    --R.D.

联合利华

斯图加特·瑞弗贝莱德全球基金

股票代码：(UL)

地区：欧洲

    没错，联合利华（Unilever）的总部或许在欧洲，但发家却是在新兴市场。这家包装食品和消费品提供商有50%以上的销售额来自发展中世界；剔除收购效应，今年这部分销售额已实现了12%的增长。管理着12亿美元贝莱德全球基金的斯图加特·瑞弗表示，这家公司在海外有很强的优势。瑞弗称：“联合利华在印度已有70多年的历史。”过去三年，他管理的基金年均回报9.4%，高于全球83%的股票基金。他说，当其他公司只是在新兴市场中设立销售网络和供应链时，联合利华已站稳脚跟，大踏步前进。“无需附加成本，他们就能将产品送到消费者面前。”

    正是基于此类原因，联合利华才能拥有健康的14%经营利润率，才能将50%的自由现金流返还给股东。瑞弗指出，过去几年该公司连续每年以6%-8%的幅度上调股息。他预计未来几年，联合利华的派息——当前股息收益率为3.3%——将继续保持增长。

    --M.K.

Unilever

Stuart Reeve BlackRock Global Dividend Income

Ticker: (UL)

Around the globe pick: Europe

    Unilever may be headquartered in Europe, but it's thriving in emerging markets. The purveyor of packaged foods and consumer products does more than 50% of its sales in the developing world, and those sales have risen 12% this year, excluding the effect of acquisitions. Stuart Reeve, manager of the $1.2 billion BlackRock Global Dividend Income Fund (BABDX), says the company has a strong advantage overseas. "Unilever has been in India for well over 70 years," says Reeve, whose fund has returned 9.4% a year over the past three years, topping 83% of world stock funds. While other businesses are just setting up sales networks and supply chains in emerging markets, he says, Unilever is already up and running. "They're well positioned to get their products in front of consumers without employing extra costs."

    That's one reason Unilever boasts a healthy 14% operating margin and why it's able to return 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders. Over the past few years, Reeve says, it has consistently raised its dividend at a rate of 6% to 8% per year. He expects Unilever's payout -- the stock currently yields 3.3% -- to continue its ascent over the next few years.

    --M.K.

费森尤斯医疗保健公司

艾里克·沃尔什Harding Loevner International Equity基金

股票代码：(FMS)

地区：欧洲

    费森尤斯医疗保健公司（Fresenius Medical Care）运营透析中心，为肾功能衰竭患者提供不可或缺的服务。随着人口老龄化，这一市场看来将不断增长：研究人员预计到2020年，患有晚期肾脏疾病的美国人将达到785,000人。相比2005年增长60%。费森尤斯总部位于德国，但运营主要在美国。据艾里克·沃尔什称，市场占有率约为30%。沃尔什是资产规模22亿美元的Harding Loevner International Equity基金的联席经理。

    费森尤斯的优势：沃尔什表示，它能够凭借规模效应降低成本，因此盈利能力优于规模较小的竞争对手。2007年以来，该公司已将净利润率提升了20%多。

    费森尤斯最近公布的业绩弱于分析师预期，推低股价。但过去十年所管理基金年均回报达9.1%的沃尔什将此视为一个机会。他将（业绩不佳）归咎于一次性的经营问题。而且，分析师们预计未来五年净利润的年均增幅为11%。前景大好的目标市场：新兴市场。沃尔什指出，亚洲透析患者数量正在以每年10%的速度增长。

    --M.K.

Fresenius Medical Care

Alec Walsh Harding Loevner International Equity

Ticker: (FMS)

Around the globe pick: Europe

    Fresenius Medical Care runs dialysis centers, providing an indispensable service to patients whose kidneys are failing. With an aging population, that market is burgeoning: Researchers expect the number of Americans with end-stage renal disease to reach 785,000 in 2020. That's up 60% from 2005 levels. Fresenius, which is based in Germany but operates primarily in the U.S., commands some 30% of the market, according to Alec Walsh, co-head of the $2.2 billionHarding Loevner International Equity Fund (HLMNX).

    Fresenius's edge: It can leverage its size to tamp costs down, he says, making it more profitable than tinier rivals. Since 2007 the company has boosted its net profit margin by more than 20%.

    Fresenius recently reported earnings that lagged analysts' projections, nicking its shares. But Walsh, whose fund has returned 9.1% a year over the past decade, sees that as an opportunity. He blames one-time operational issues. And analysts expect 11% annual earnings increases for the next five years. One promising target: emerging markets. Walsh notes that the number of dialysis patients in Asia is increasing by 10% a year.

    --M.K.

国家天然气有限公司

曹书新（音译）Invesco Asia

股票代码：不适用

地区：亚洲

    几年前，要找一只赚钱的亚洲股票简直轻而易举。 但随着中国和印度的增长最近变得不那么确定，选股难度大多了。曹书新从1999年开始掌管6.40亿美元的Invesco Asia Pacific Growth基金。晨星数据显示，过去十年，这只基金的年化回报率达到了17.2%，超过同类基金13.3%的水平。如今，曹书新正在押注公用事业类股票。他说：“我们喜欢这些公司可以预期的收益和创造长期现金流的能力。”他选择的股票国家天然气有限公司（Perusahaan Gas Negara）正是这样一家公司。该公司在印尼拥有和运营天然气管线，市场占有率90%。这样的市场主导地位使它能保持40%的权益回报率。该股【在雅加达证交所交易，也可通过嘉信理财（Schwab）和E*Trade经纪公司交易】拥有13倍的动态市盈率。曹书新称，对于一家拥有强劲增长前景的公司，这是相对较低的估值。预计该公司2013年的利润将较2012年增长16%，同时，曹书新还认为，之后该公司将继续以接近10%的速度增长。另外一项优势：股息收益率为3%。曹书新表示：“我们看好的是它增长的质量——它能增长多长时间，以及增长的可持续性。”

    ——A.F.

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero)

Shuxin (Steve) Cao Invesco Asia Pacific Growth

Pacific Growth

Ticker: N/A

Around the globe pick: Asia

    A few years ago, finding a winning Asian stock was a no-brainer. But with growth in China and India less certain lately, it's a lot tougher. Steve Cao, who has run the $640 million Invesco Asia Pacific Growth Fund(ASIAX) since 1999, has returned an annualized 17.2% for the past decade, vs. 13.3% for his peers, according to Morningstar. These days Cao is betting on utilities. "We like the predictable earnings and the long-term cash-flow-generation capability of these companies," he says. His choice, Perusahaan Gas Negara, fits that mold. It owns and operates a natural-gas pipeline in Indonesia, where it has 90% market share. Its dominance has allowed it to maintain return on equity of 40%. The stock (which trades on the Jakarta exchange and is available through brokerages such as Schwab and E*Trade) has a forward P/E of 13, a relatively modest valuation for a company with strong prospects, Cao notes. Profits in 2013 are expected to be 16% above those for 2012, and Cao thinks they'll keep advancing in the high single digits after that. An added plus: a dividend yield of 3%. Says Cao: "What we like is the quality of the growth -- how long it can grow and the sustainability of that growth."

    --A.F.

桑坦德银行墨西哥分行

拉吉夫·基恩 新兴市场基金

股票代码：不适用

地区：拉丁美洲

    掌管61亿美元Virtus Emerging Markets Opportunities基金的拉吉夫·基恩表示，投资者太过关注金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)，却忽视了墨西哥。该基金2002年以来平均年化收益率达到骄人的17%。他认为，这是一个错误。“墨西哥的增长已有约两年超过巴西，”他说。“这是个非常不错的市场。”

    今年秋季当西班牙金融巨头西班牙国际银行（Banco Santander）开始出售墨西哥业务的股票时，基恩抓住机会买入了这只股票。他说，该股目前动态市盈率为12倍。他说：“这真是只好股票，。”基恩指出，这家墨西哥银行拥有2.5%的“巨大”资产回报率，而且一级资本金充足率为14%。他说：“相比你在美国或欧洲看到的那些银行，这家银行资本金相当充足。”墨西哥的金融服务市场仍处于相对初期。他指出，私营部门的债务/GDP比率比巴西低了约50%，很多墨西哥人依然没有按揭贷款。因此，基恩预计桑坦德银行墨西哥分行（Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico） 今后几年的利润增长可能超过12%。而且，作为控制墨西哥近四分之三市场的五大银行之一，基恩表示，这应能阻止竞争对手赶上它。

    --M.K.

    译者：早稻米

Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico

Rajiv Jain Virtus Virtus Emerging Markets Opportunities

Ticker: N/A

Around the globe pick: Latin America

    Investors focus so much on the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) that they forget Mexico, says Rajiv Jain, whose $6.1 billion Virtus Emerging Markets Opportunities fund (HEMZX) has averaged a blistering 17% a year since 2002. He thinks that's a mistake. "Mexico has been outgrowing Brazil for about two years," he says. "It's a wonderful market to be in."

    When the Spanish financial giant Banco Santander began selling shares of its Mexican division this fall, Jain jumped at the chance to buy the stock, which he says has a forward P/E of 12. "It really is a jewel," he says. Jain points out that the Mexican bank has a "huge" 2.5% return on assets, and its tier-one capital ratio is 14%. "They're a massively well-capitalized bank compared with what you see in the U.S. or Europe," he says. The market for financial services in Mexico is relatively nascent. The private debt-to-GDP ratio is about 50% lower than it is in Brazil, he notes, and many Mexicans still lack mortgages. As a result, Jain thinks Santander Mexico can lift its earnings by more than 12% a year over the next few years. And it's one of five big banks that control three-quarters of the market, Jain says, which should prevent competitors from nipping at its heels.