刚刚过去的黑色星期五和网络星期一中，Wii U大卖，这一幕让人觉得似曾相识。与2006年推出Wii时的情景相似，由于这款游戏机具有全新而强大的图形处理功能以及新颖的输入装置，狂热的游戏迷们对它津津乐道。因此，它的销量情理之中地赢得了强劲的开门红。该公司估计已经售出了40万台Wii U。由于产品卖得飞快，众多零售商的库存已经告急。

    乍一看，似乎任天堂公司（Nintendo）的Wii U开启了电子游戏机新一轮的热销周期。新款的微软（Microsoft）Xbox和索尼（Sony）的Playstation按计划要明年才上市，它们的首次周末推介会很可能也会盛大隆重。不过，这些设备的长期发展前景就完全是另一码事了。这些新款游戏机尽管纷纷高调亮相，但它们代表的是一个快速衰退的生态系统。

    未来12个月里将要开售的第八代游戏机在使用寿命内的销量将赶不上前辈。但这只是个开始。从我们公司内部及行业分析师的预测来看，它们的销量很有可能下降30%以上。大多数忠实游戏迷抢购完初期上市的产品后数年里，销量将开始大幅下挫。

    如果这种预测成真，背后原因只有一个：那就是平板电脑。基本上毫无疑问的是，出自亚马逊公司（Amazon）、苹果公司（Apple）和谷歌公司（Google）的平板电脑将会成为新款游戏机。造成这一变化的三个强大趋势是：硬件平台不断改进、软件业商业模式变化、消费者对便利性要求不断提高。（在此可披露一点：本人的公司正是为平板电脑开发游戏的。）

    先来看看硬件。对广大玩家，特别是“核心”玩家来说，游戏机的硬件更占优势，因为它们特制的图形处理和计算硬件比同等价位的PC或苹果电脑（Mac）性能更强劲。但平板电脑设计者也已开始在图形处理上认真下功夫了。苹果的操作系统iOS和谷歌的安卓（Android）生态系统都是如此。比如现在平板电脑的屏幕分辨率普遍要胜过一般的游戏机。而且，平板电脑的图形处理能力也开始后来居上，正是它使游戏变得日益真实生动，引人入胜。

    实际上，最新一代iPad的图形处理单元已经比新款Wii U更强劲了——许多针对新款苹果产品游戏性能的评测都谈到了这一点。尽管明年推出的Xbox和Playstation也许在图形处理能力上要比现在的平板电脑略胜一筹，但这种优势很可能会转瞬即逝。

    The availability of Nintendo's Wii U on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was source of déjà vu. Much like the 2006 release of the original Wii, diehard video gamers have been chattering about trying out the console's powerful new graphics and novel input device. Sales, not surprisingly, have gotten off to a strong start. The company has already sold an estimated 400,000 units. Many retailers had trouble keeping the game machine in stock.

    At first glance, it may seem like Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii U is starting the video game console cycle all over again. New versions of the Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox and Sony (SNE) PlayStation are slated to arrive next year, and their first-weekend introductions are likely to be just as eventful. But the long-term outlook for these devices is entirely different. These new consoles, despite their high-profile launches, represent a rapidly decaying ecosystem.

    The eighth generation of game consoles we will see in the next 12 months will, over their life spans, sell in lower quantities than the generation that preceded them. That will be a first. The best guess, both from inside our company and from industry analysts, is the fall-off will be more than 30%. Much of the decline will be in the out years of sales, after the most loyal fans have snapped up early units.

    If this happens, there will be a one-word explanation: tablets. There can be little doubt that tablets from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOG) are the new consoles. Three powerful mega-trends are causing this change: ever-improving hardware platforms, shifting software business models, and consumers' increasingly high demand for convenience. (Full disclosure: my company makes games for tablets.)

    Take hardware first. Game consoles enjoyed an edge for players, especially "core" gamers, because their specialized graphics and computing hardware outperformed comparably priced PCs or Macs. But tablet designers have begun taking graphics seriously. This is true in both the Apple iOS and Google Android ecosystems. Screen resolutions of tablets now often beat what is commonly available for consoles. And the under-the-hood graphics processing power -- what makes game play increasingly realistic and exciting -- is catching up as well.

    In fact, the latest iPad already has a graphics processing unit more powerful than what will be shipping in the new Wii U -- a fact pointed out in many gaming-oriented reviews of the new Apple product. While next year's Xbox and PlayStation will probably be slightly ahead of the current crop of tablets in graphics capabilities, the superiority is likely to be short-lived.

    这是因为新款平板电脑每年推出，因此它能很快用上更强劲的处理性能。但游戏机的推出周期却往往长达五到七年。游戏机零售商甚至会对新硬件发布的姗姗来迟大倒苦水。游戏驿站（GameStop）刚刚爆出收入下降的消息，部分原因就是由于新款游戏机发布间隔时间过长所致。

    对游戏机命运影响第二大的因素是软件业商业模式的变化。过去，玩家们习惯为一款新游戏预付60美元。但同样是这些玩家，他们也会花时间玩那些可以在平板电脑上免费下载的游戏。平板电脑和手机上免费增值游戏的大量普及正在极大地改变消费者的行为模式。结果，就算是为一款主流游戏预付60美元也会变得越来越少见。

    随着越来越多的软件公司开始采取平板电脑制造商的“边推出，边改进”（iterate-and-improve）的模式，这种情况将会更为明显。传统的游戏和好莱坞大片颇为相似，花费数年、投入巨资精心打造，发布那一天成为多家媒体争相报道的头条新闻。而且，它收入的80%都是在发布的头两个月里赚来的。但这再也不会是游戏软件开发的常规路数了。新一代游戏公司强调的是能吸引“核心”玩家的那类游戏，过去正是这些玩家构成了游戏机用户的中坚力量。这类游戏可以免费玩，用户只需为尊享内容付费。而且他们会在接下来的数年中不断买单。这些免费游戏每周都会推出新的特色内容，因此一款新游戏的发布只是游戏软件开发进程的开端，而绝非终点。

    影响游戏机前途的第三大宏观趋势是平板电脑最显著的优点：方便好用。一般来说，在地铁或公园里，或是当用户三心二意看电视时，他们是没法玩游戏机的。在游戏软件的 选择上，平板电脑同样具有“方便”这个优势。一般来说，游戏机玩家在购机的头三年里，会从上百种在售游戏中购买大约八款。而平板电脑用户能选择的游戏却达上万种，其中绝大多数都是免费的。毕竟，人们使用平板电脑的首要用途就是玩游戏。

    需要说清楚的一点是，游戏机在其下一代产品推出后并不会彻底消失。总有一群核心用户会坚持每隔几年就升级到新款产品。但这个人群在游戏王国中只会日益萎缩。作为一个总产值达到220亿美元的产业，游戏机正在逐步陷入困境，那些硬件公司、软件公司和在传统商业模式上大笔投资的零售商对此感受尤为痛切。曾几何时，各种变化不期而至，给电影、音乐和图书出版等行业造成了重大冲击。现在游戏行业里企业如果准备不足，也会像上述行业那样，落得个遍体鳞伤的下场。

    不过，游戏机并不会就此寿终正寝。只是现实将发生重大变化，平板电脑将登上历史舞台，成为全新的游戏机。游戏生态系统的老牌成员们仍然有希望取得成功——只要他们为不可避免的新趋势做好充分的准备。

    凯文•周是Kabam公司的首席执行官，也是《财富》杂志评选的“顶级技术精英”之一。Kabam是一家私有公司，总部位于旧金山。近年来，它每年的总营收一直超过1亿美元。该公司推出的游戏力作有：《霍比特人：中土王国》，《卡米洛特王国》，《边缘世界》，《教父：五大家族》等。

    译者：清远

    That's because new tablets are introduced yearly and can take quick advantage of increases in processing power. Consoles, by contrast, are on a much longer release schedule of five to seven years. Retailers even lament the lag in new hardware releases. GameStop (GME) just reportedits revenue is off, partly due to the length of time between new console releases.

    The second big change affecting consoles involves the software business model. In the past, console players have become accustomed to paying $60 up front for a new game. But these same consumers are also spending hours with games that are free to download and play on their tablets. The massive popularity of freemium games on tablets and mobile phones is dramatically changing consumer behavior. As a result, paying $60 for even a major franchise game is going to become an increasingly rare event.

    This will be doubly true as more software companies adopt the iterate-and-improve development model of the tablet makers. A traditional game was like a Hollywood blockbuster, taking years to make, costing tens of millions of dollars, and released in one headline-grabbing day. And, more than 80% of its revenue is earned in the first two months. But that isn't how game software is being developed any more. A new breed of game companies emphasize the sort of games that appeal to "core" gamers, those who in the past had been the core constituency of the console. These games are free-to-play and customers pay for premium content. And they pay consistently over several years. Free-to-play games constantly roll new features out on a weekly basis so the release of a new game is the start, and not the end, of the software development process.

    The third mega-trend affecting consoles is tablets' most obvious benefit to consumers: convenience. You simply can't play a console game on the subway or at the park or while you're half-watching TV. The convenience equation extends to software choice as well. Out of hundreds of games available for sale, console players buy approximately eight games over the first three years of ownership. In contrast, tablet players can choose from tens of thousands of games, the overwhelming majority of which are freemium. After all, the number one thing people use their tablets for is games.

    To be clear: consoles will not disappear entirely after the next generation. There will be a core group of gamers attracted to the console platform who will insist on upgrading every few years to each new model. But they will represent an ever-shrinking part of the gaming universe. Console gaming, a massive $22 billion dollar industry, is undergoing disruption that will be heavily felt at hardware companies, software companies and retailers heavily invested in the traditional model. For unprepared incumbents, these changes will be every bit as traumatic as those that wracked movies, music, and book publishing.

    But there will be life after consoles. But the reality will have changed and tablets will have become the new consoles. Traditional members of the gaming ecosystem can be successful -- as long as they prepare for what is inevitably ahead.

    Kevin Chou is CEO of Kabam and one of Fortune's Smartest People in Tech. Privately-held Kabam is headquartered in San Francisco with more than $100 million in gross revenue in its most recent fiscal year. Its titles include The Hobbit: Kingdoms of Middle-earth, Kingdoms of Camelot, Edgeworld and The Godfather: Five Families.