今年四月，雅芳（Avon）曾是炙手可热的收购对象。

    当时，德国Joh. A. Benckiser股份有限公司主要持有的香水集团科蒂（Coty）曾经主动开价100亿美元，希望收购这家化妆品公司。《财富》杂志（Fortune）还报道，Richmont Holdings投资公司也加入了收购该公司的行列。【请参见新闻《雅芳：一个美容帝国的兴衰》。（Avon: The rise and fall of a beauty icon）】当时，《财富》杂志曾经撰文分析了雅芳为何一开始就成为抢手的收购对象：长期担任雅芳首席执行官的钟彬娴管理不善、决策失误，同时，核心客户也在逐渐流失。雅芳的股价在钟彬娴的任期内曾于2004年最高达到46美元，而在科蒂出价收购前，股价已经跌至19美元左右。

    如今，大约七个月过去了，雅芳的股价依旧一路下跌，如今徘徊在14美元上下。11月1日公司发表的财报显示，今年第三季度的利润同比下降了81%。

    除去财报惨淡之外，公司与所有新买家的洽谈也至少暂时搁浅。表面上看，雅芳可能甚至会接到一些不受欢迎的报价，不过此时进行私人股本交易的可能性不大。

    雅芳的情况发生了很大的改变，其中最大的变化是钟彬娴不再负责管理公司。一年前，公司发布财务和运营审查时，她依然担任首席执行官。在她的管理之下，雅芳经历了两次失败的高层改组。分析人士曾猜测，在公众视线之外进行一次彻底洗牌，也许能让公司的运营更加顺利。

    不过分析师们现在表示，公众的关注无碍四月新上任的执行官谢莉·麦科伊做出艰难的决策。

    晨星公司（Morning Star）的分析师艾林·拉什说：“他们给人的感觉像是所有的选择都已经摆在了桌面上，其中甚至包括退出一部分市场，进行新一轮裁员，或者削减股息。”

    麦科伊在公司最近的收益电话会议上承认，公司还有很长的路要走。她告诉分析师：“我理解，你们想知道我带来了什么灵丹妙药，或者说有什么快速解决问题的方案，不过我们的业务很复杂。”她还说：“雅芳面临的挑战不是一夜之间出现的，而是日积月累形成的，所以我们也需要一些时间来解决它们。”

    Back in April, Avon was a hot target.

    Fragrance maker Coty, majority-owned by German holding company Joh. A. Benckiser GmbH, made an unsolicited $10 billion offer for the direct seller of beauty products. Fortune also reported that Richmont Holdings was putting together a bid for the company. (See Avon: The rise and fall of a beauty icon)

    At the time, Fortune detailed what had made Avon so vulnerable in the first place: plagued by mismanagement and poor execution during the tenure of longtime CEO Andrea Jung, the company had lost sight of its core customer. The stock hit $46 in 2004, a high for Jung's reign, but had dropped to around $19 just prior to the Coty bid.

    Seven or so months later, the stock's slide has continued, with the share price hovering around $14. Profits in the third quarter, reported Nov. 1, declined 81% over the same period in 2011.

    Despite the deteriorating numbers, talk of any new buyers -- at least for the time being -- has cooled. Avon might look even more exposed to an unwanted bid on the surface, but a private equity deal seems unlikely at this point.

    A lot has changed at Avon, but the biggest change is that Jung is no longer in charge. A year ago, when the company announced its latest financial and operational review, Jung was still CEO. Avon had already undergone two unsuccessful restructurings during her time as at the top, and analysts posited whether a turnaround would be easier to execute beyond the public eye.

    But analysts say that the spotlight hasn't stopped current chief executive Sheri McCoy, who took over in April, from making hard decisions.

    "The impression they convey is all options are on the table," says Morningstar analyst Erin Lash, "even if that means exiting some markets, going through another round of head count reductions, or whether that means slashing dividend."

    On the company's most recent earnings call, McCoy acknowledged that the company had a long road ahead, telling analysts, "I recognize you would like to hear me present a magic bullet or a quick fix, but our business is complex," and that "the challenges Avon is facing developed over time, not overnight, and the solutions will take time as well."

    雅芳依然在接受《反海外腐败法》（Foreign Corrupt Practices Act）的调查。这项调查不仅让他们付出了高额的代价，还失去了许多潜在客户。检察官们一直在调查雅芳的高管们是否接受了来自海外市场的贿赂。面对质询和审查，公司已经花费了几亿美元支付法律费用和专家费用——这还不包括任何判决结果将导致的支出。伦敦大西洋证券公司（Atlantic Equities）的分析师维多利亚·科林称，雅芳的反腐败调查“可能会让它变成烫手的山芋”。

    历史情况也显示，雅芳对收购不感兴趣。公司董事会拒绝了科蒂按每股23.25美元出价的100亿美元收购要约，并很快从强生公司（Johnson & Johnson）挖到经验丰富的麦科伊就任首席执行官。【雅芳称会考虑科蒂在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的支持下提出的更为优厚的报价，不过科蒂随后撤回了收购要约。】

    短短半年的时间，董事会的观念可能不至于转变到想要去接受收购——尤其是新一届首席执行官上任不久，还没来得及彻底实施重整计划。没有董事会的首肯，这类收购也就不会发生。

    以消费者为导向的私人股本公司旧金山股本合伙人（San Francisco Equity Partners）的任事股东斯科特·波特说：“在这样的情况下，私人股本也不会进行恶意收购。”

    私人股本交易最大的障碍是雅芳的现金流问题和高资产负债率。

    雅芳的运转资金在第三季度减少了2,700万美元，降至2.2亿美元。尽管首席财务官金伯利·罗斯说公司将积极减少开支，雅芳依然决心在商业上再次投资。尽管这些举措很有必要，但是无法缓解现金流的压力。

    晨星公司的拉什为了衡量雅芳的杠杆率，查看了雅芳的债务与税息折旧及摊销前利润之比，这一比率在过去五年的平均值为2.0。晨星预计在接下来的五年中，这一比率将会升至平均3.2。她指出，该比率已经远远超出其他化妆品公司，例如欧莱雅（L'Oreal）（比率分别为0.8和0.2）和雅诗兰黛（Estee Lauder）（比率分别为1.1和0.5）。

    拉什在一份电子邮件中写道：“雅芳债台高筑。部分原因在于，公司的资本支出和股息支出要高于其产生的营运现金流。我们认为，雅芳面临的高负债率会让想要收购该公司的私人股本望而却步。”想要增加杠杆率，私人股本公司将会举步维艰。

    旧金山股本合伙人的波特说：“我长期关注各种事物的发展，借此促进增长。一般情况下，债务是发展的大敌。”

    译者：严匡正

    Avon's costly and ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act investigation could put off any potential buyer. Prosecutors have been investigating whether or not Avon executives accepted bribes in several overseas markets. The company has already spent hundreds of millions on legal and professional fees associated with the inquiry and compliance reviews—and that's even before any settlement costs. Atlantic Equities analyst Victoria Collin says that Avon's FCPA probe "probably makes it a little bit untouchable." 

    History also suggests that Avon (AVP) isn't interested in putting itself up for sale: The company's board turned down Coty's initial $10 billion bid at $23.25 per share and installed McCoy, a Johnson & Johnson veteran, soon after. (Avon did say it would consider a sweetened offer that included backing from Berkshire Hathaway, but Coty went on to withdraw the proposal.)

    It's unlikely the board's thinking has altered so significantly in half a year that it would jump behind a deal -- especially with a new CEO, who hasn't had the chance to fully implement a turnaround plan. And these kinds of deals don't tend to happen without the consent of the board.

    "You haven't really seen private equity go hostile in these types of situations," says Scott Potter, managing partner of San Francisco Equity Partners, a consumer-focused private equity firm.

    The biggest hurdle for a private equity deal is Avon's cash flow issues and high level of debt.

    Cash from operations fell $27 million to $220 million during the third quarter, and while CFO Kimberly Ross said the company will aggressively cut costs, Avon has also committed to reinvesting in the business. While necessary, these moves won't loosen the pressure on cash flow.

    Morningstar's Lash looks at Avon's debt to EBIDTA ratio as a measure of leverage, which over the last five years averaged 2.0 times. Morningstar forecasts it will increase to 3.2 times on average over the next five years. She noted that Avon's levels greatly exceed beauty companies L'Oreal (0.8 times and 0.2 times, respectively) and Estee Lauder (1.1 times and 0.5 times, respectively).

    "Avon's debt was amassed partly because the firm was expending more on capital expenditures and on dividends than it was generating in operating cash flow," she wrote in an email. "We think the high level of debt that AVP is already operating with would be an impediment to a private equity firm being interested in a deal."

    A private equity firm would have a hard time adding more leverage.

    "I tend to put my growth lens on everything," says Potter of San Francisco Equity Partners, "which is what can I do to get that thing growing again, and typically debt is the enemy of a growth thesis."