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《财富》杂志带你回顾近半个世纪以来,沃伦•巴菲特逐步走上投资大师神坛的过程中说过的那些价值连城的金玉良言。

1988年,沃伦•巴菲特正在与本文作者卡罗尔•卢米斯打桥牌,展示他称之为“手中最大的牌”。

    《财富》(Fortune)杂志最早于1966年开始和沃伦•巴菲特打交道。当时笔者正在写一篇关于阿尔弗雷德•温斯洛•琼斯的投资文章。那时琼斯还没什么名气,但即将由于这篇文章而名满天下。琼斯正在经营被称为“对冲基金”的业务,《财富》杂志对这一业务以及琼斯如何经营这项业务的描述揭开了对冲基金业的一个小繁荣期。这篇文章中有一句话提到了巴菲特的公司Buffett Partnership Ltd.,差不多是琼斯基金的竞争对手。让我惭愧至今的是,我把巴菲特(Buffett)的名字拼错了,少了一个“t”。

    随后不久,我的丈夫约翰•卢米斯见到了巴菲特,回到家里说:“我觉得,我遇到了全美国最聪明的投资人。”我肯定,当时我是不屑一顾的。 后来,我自己也认识了巴菲特(以及他已逝的第一任妻子苏茜,一个极好的人),意识到这个当时基本上默默无闻的家伙是多么了不起。卢米斯家族买了巴菲特那家小公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway )的股票;我们也成为了巴菲特一家的好友;后来,我还成为了他名声大噪的年度致股东公开信的无偿编辑。

    与此同时,《财富》杂志也开始长期报道巴菲特。1970年,《财富》杂志一篇《对冲基金遭遇艰难岁月》(Hard Times Come to the Hedge Funds)的报道中,巴菲特有了两段话和一张照片——他的基金是个特例,连续13年盈利——到了1977年,我们刊登了巴菲特撰写的一篇7,000字的文章《通胀如何骗取股票投资者钱财》(How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor)。

    如今,在《财富》杂志首次邂逅巴菲特46年后,我们搜罗了这些年来撰写的所有有关巴菲特的重要文章(以及一些不那么重要的文章),加上我的点评,出了一本书《跳着踢踏舞去上班》(Tap Dancing to Work)。上面提到的所有文章,从写阿尔弗雷德•温斯洛•琼斯的那篇投资文章开始,全部都收录在内——而这仅仅是个开始。总而言之,这本书是一场巴菲特报道盛宴。

    书后附上了在巴菲特逐步成长为一位伟大的投资人/管理者/慈善家的过程中,这些报道的一些精彩摘录和记录下那些时刻的精选照片。可以确定的一件事是:我们非常高兴能够参与其中。

    尾声:1966年,当《财富》杂志首次邂逅沃伦•巴菲特时,伯克希尔(如今的A类股)股价为22美元。今年11月初,该股股价约为130,000美元。

    Fortune met Warren Buffett by accident in 1966. I was writing an investing article about another man, Alfred Winslow Jones, who wasn't famous at that moment, but was about to be because of the article. Jones was running something called a hedge fund, and Fortune's description of what that was and how Jones operated started a miniboom in the hedge fund business. Buffett Partnership Ltd. -- a sort of competitor of Jones's fund -- got a single line in the article. To my everlasting dismay, I misspelled Buffett, giving it only one "t."

    A bit later, my husband, John Loomis, met Buffett and came home saying, "I think I have just met the smartest investor in the country." I'm sure my eyes rolled. But then I, too, got to know Warren (and his wonderful late first wife, Susie) and realized how impressive this largely unknown fellow was. The Loomises bought stock in his small company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA); we became good friends of the Buffetts; and ultimately I became the pro bono editor of his increasingly famous annual letter to shareholders.

    Meanwhile, Fortune set off on a long-term course of covering Buffett. He got two paragraphs and a picture in a 1970 Fortune story called "Hard Times Come to the Hedge Funds" -- his fund was a rarity, having 13 straight years of profits -- and by 1977 we were running a 7,000-word piece by Buffett on "How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor."

    Now, 46 years after Fortune first met the man, we have a book, Tap Dancing to Work, that collects everything important we've done about him (and some lighter stuff too), with commentary written by me. All the articles mentioned above, from the A.W. Jones story on, are in it -- and that's just the start. In total, the book is a Buffett banquet.

    What follows are some choice quotes from its pages and a selection of photographs that mark the passing of time, as Buffett grew into an investor/manager/philanthropist whose place in history is assured. One thing is certain: We are awfully glad to have been there as it happened.

    A coda: In 1966, when Fortune first met Warren Buffett, Berkshire's stock (today's Class A) was $22. In early November, it was about $130,000.

《跳着踢踏舞去上班》

20世纪70年代

    这一年他正在着手关闭他的对冲基金。

    1970年1月:《对冲基金遭遇艰难岁月》

    “巴菲特的投资记录极其出色。在投资经营的13年里……他给投资者带来了24%的复合年均回报率……(如今)巴菲特正在退出对冲基金业。”

    1977年5月:《通胀如何骗取股票投资者钱财》

    “大多数政府官员都坚决反对通胀,同时却又坚定支持产生通胀的政策,这一点完全可以理解,”巴菲特写道。

1970s

    January 1970: Hard times come to the hedge funds

    "Buffett's record has been extraordinarily good. In his thirteen years of operation … he compounded his investors' money at a 24% annual rate … [Now] Buffett is quitting the hedge fund game."

    May 1977: How inflation swindles the equity investor

    "Most of those in public office, quite understandably, are firmly against inflation and firmly in favor of policies producing it," wrote Buffett.


20世纪80年代

    1983年8月22日:《来自巴菲特董事长的信》

    “市场就像上帝一样,会帮助那些自助者。但与上帝不同,市场不会饶恕那些不知道自己在做什么的人。”

    1983年12月26日:《你能跑赢股市吗?》

    巴菲特说,在投资中,“你需要等待最佳时机。”

    1986年1月20日:《伤脑筋的并购费》

    “巴菲特非常聪明,”并购大师布鲁斯•沃瑟斯坦回忆说。“得小心别被他盯上。”

    1986年9月29日:《一切都该留给子孙吗?》

    “会有人说,挑选奥运冠军队员的最佳方式就是选那些20年前夺得冠军的子女们吗?如果社会竞争这样进行,(那就)太疯狂了。”

    1987年12月7日:《对于指数期货的早期恐惧》

    “我们不需要更多的人来参与美国股市早已认定可有可无的工具,券商也不该鼓励人们参与此类投资…我们需要明智地配置投资资本,不是杠杆化的市场押注。”

    1988年4月11日:《巴菲特内幕》

    “当一位声名卓著的经理接管一家基本面数据糟糕的公司时,安然无恙的是公司的名声,这一点很少有例外。”

    1989年10月30日:《谁将成为新的巴菲特?》

    “你不需要一名火箭科学家。投资不是智商160打败智商130的游戏……当别人都出于短期的贪婪或恐惧而做出决定时,理性至关重要。这就是赚钱的时候。”

1980s

    Aug. 22, 1983: Letters from chairman Buffett

    "The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do."

    Dec. 26, 1983: Can you beat the stock market?

    In investing, says Buffett, "you wait for the 3 and 0 pitch."

    Jan. 20, 1986: Merger fees that bend the mind

    "Buffett is so smart," remembers Bruce Wasserstein, "that you had to be careful to avoid being picked."

    Sept. 29, 1986: Should you leave it all to the children?

    "Would anyone say the best way to pick a championship Olympic team is to select the sons and daughters of those who won 20 years ago? [That would be] a crazy way for a society to compete."

    Dec. 7, 1987: Early fears about index futures

    "We do not need more people gambling in nonessential instruments identified with the stock market in this country, nor brokers who encourage them to do so … We need the intelligent commitment of investment capital, not leveraged market wagers."

    April 11, 1988: The inside story of Warren Buffett

    "With few exceptions, when a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    Oct. 30, 1989: Are these the new Warren Buffetts?

    "You don't need a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the 160 IQ guy beats the guy with the 130 IQ … Rationality is essential when others are making decisions based on short-term greed or fear. That is when the money is made."


20世纪90年代

    1991年4月22日:《巴菲特买进垃圾债》

    “很多事情我都希望自己能有后见之明。但对于投资决定而言,我不认为后见之明有用。只有行动才有回报。”

    1994年1月10日:《现在,听听这个》

    “保罗•摩泽尔付了3万美元,并被判入狱4个月。所罗门(Salomon)的股东们(包括我)付了2.90亿美元,我被判担任10个月的CEO。”

    1995年3月20日:《解开衍生品的乱麻》

    巴菲特表示,如果要与衍生品打交道,他会要求每位CEO在年报中确认自己了解公司参与的每项衍生产品。“把这条写上。‘巴菲特说,’我想你就能解决好存在的每一个问题。’”

    1996年2月5日:《巴菲特的投资法门》

    “应当投资甚至连傻瓜都能经营的业务,因为总有一天会有一个傻瓜来经营它。”

    1997年10月27日:《巴菲特在所罗门力挽狂澜》

    回顾所罗门危机:当巴菲特成为临时董事长时,有位记者问他,如何能处理好身处纽约和奥马哈两地。他回答说:“我母亲在我的内衣上缝上了我的名字,不会有问题的。”

    1998年7月20日:《盖茨和巴菲特秀》

    “在大多数收购交易中,做收购标的比做收购者更好。收购者付钱后,还要把捕获的猎物拖回自己的巢穴。”

    1999年11月22日:《巴菲特谈股市》

    “我认为,很难有力地论证,未来17年的股市表现将与过去17年有任何类似相像的地方——任何相像的地方。如果一定要选择一个最可能的回报率,考虑到股息和升值因素,投资者总体而言…将获得…6%的回报率。”

1990s

    April 22, 1991: Buffett buys junk

    "There are a lot of things I wish I'd done in hindsight. But I don't think much of hindsight generally in terms of investment decisions. You only get paid for what you do."

    Jan. 10, 1994: Now hear this

    "Paul Mozer's paying $30,000 and is sentenced to prison for four months. Salomon's shareholders -- including me -- paid $290 million, and I got sentenced to 10 months as CEO."

    March 20, 1995: Untangling the derivatives mess

    "Buffett says he'd deal with derivatives by requiring every CEO to affirm in his annual report that he understands each derivatives contract his company has entered into. 'Put that in,' says Buffett, 'and I suspect you'll fix up just about every problem that exists.' "

    Feb. 5, 1996: Gates on Buffett

    "You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will."

    Oct. 27, 1997: Warren Buffett's wild ride at Salomon

    Looking back at the Salomon crisis: Once Buffett became interim chairman, he was asked by a reporter how he would handle needing to be in both New York and Omaha. "My mother has sewn my name in my underwear, so it will be all right," he answered.

    July 20, 1998: The Bill and Warren show

    "In most acquisitions, it's better to be the target rather than the acquirer. The acquirer pays for the fact that he gets to haul back to his cave the carcass of the conquered animal."

    Nov. 22, 1999: Mr. Buffett on the stock market

    "I think it's hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities over the next 17 years will perform anything like -- anything like -- they've performed in the past 17. If I had to pick the most probable return, from dividends and appreciation combined, that investors in aggregate … would earn … it would be 6%."


21世纪00年代

    2001年2月19日:《价值机器》

    “(伯克希尔)让我想起了迪士尼电影《幻想曲》(Fantasia)中演魔法师学徒的米老鼠。他的问题是水太多了。我们的问题是现金太多了。”

    2001年12月10日:《巴菲特谈股市》

    “由于我的个人口味偏好,我这辈子还会买汉堡包。汉堡包价格下跌时,我们会在家里唱弥撒赞美诗Hallelujah Chorus。汉堡包价格上涨时,我们会暗自抹泪。这和大多数人购买的生活用品都一样——股票除外。股票下跌时你可以用同样的钱买到更多,但人们不再喜欢它们了。”

    2002年11月11日;《一切的神谕》

    “泡沫已经破了,但股价仍然不便宜……”

    2003年3月17日:《避免超级大灾难》

    “衍生品是金融界的大规模杀伤性武器,虽然目前隐而未发,但一旦爆发,就有可能要命。”

    2005年3月11日:《我得到过的最好建议》

    “1950年底,我有9,800美元,到1956年我有150,000美元。我以为有这些钱,我可以活得像个国王。”

    2006年7月10日:《为何巴菲特捐出财产》

    “我清楚我想做什么,现在开始做起来合情合理。”

    2008年4月28日:《巴菲特怎么看》

    “似乎每个人都在说(这次经济衰退)将短暂而浅层,但看起来情况正好相反。你知道,去杠杆化从本质上需要很多时间,同时还要承受很多痛苦。”

    2008年6月23日:《巴菲特的豪赌》

    “有很多聪明人在管理对冲基金。但很大程度上,他们的努力都是无功无过,他们的智商值不上他们向投资者收的那些管理费。平均而言,投资者在较长一段时间里如果只投资一只低成本的指数基金,回报率可能还会高于投资几只基金的基金。”

    2010年7月6日:《我的慈善承诺》

    “我的财富来源于很因素的巧合:我生活在美国,有一些幸运的基因和复利…(生为)白人男性,也使我免遭多半美国人面临的巨大障碍…命运多舛,变化无常。”

    本文改编自《跳着踢踏舞去上班:听沃伦•巴菲特纵论天下,1966–2012》,由卡罗尔•J•卢米斯搜集整理和扩展,Portfolio/Penguin出版,2012年11月21日发售。 © 2012 Time Inc.

    译者:早稻米

2000s

    Feb. 19, 2001: The value machine

    "[Berkshire] reminds me of Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer's Apprentice in Fantasia. His problem was floods of water. Ours is cash."

    Dec. 10, 2001: Warren Buffett on the stock market

    "To refer to a personal taste of mine, I'm going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying -- except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore."

    Nov. 11, 2002: The oracle of everything

    "The bubble has popped, but stocks are still not cheap …"

    March 17, 2003: Avoiding a mega-catastrophe

    "Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."

    March 11, 2005: The best advice I ever got

    "I had $9,800 at the end of 1950 and by 1956, I had $150,000. I figured with that I could live like a king."

    July 10, 2006: Warren Buffett gives it away

    "I know what I want to do, and it makes sense to get started."

    April 28, 2008: What Warren thinks

    "It seems everybody says [the recession] will be short and shallow, but it looks like it's just the opposite. You know, deleveraging by its nature takes a lot of time, a lot of pain."

    June 23, 2008: Buffett's big bet

    "A number of smart people are involved in running hedge funds. But to a great extent, their efforts are self-neutralizing, and their IQ will not overcome the costs they impose on investors. Investors, on average and over time, will do better with a low-cost index fund than with a group of funds of funds."

    July 6, 2010: My philanthropic pledge

    "My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest … My being [born] male and white also removed huge obstacles that a majority of Americans then faced … Fate's distribution of long straws is wildly capricious."

    Adapted from Tap Dancing to Work: Warren Buffett on Practically Everything, 1966–2012, collected and expanded by Carol J. Loomis, published by Portfolio/Penguin, on sale Nov. 21, 2012. © 2012 Time Inc.

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