这些年来，马克•莫比乌斯赢得了不少称号，比如“新兴市场教父”、“环球旅行家”等，所有这些称号都源于同一个事实：这位现年73岁的投资者长时间以来一直是华尔街最爱冒险的投资者之一。他投资发展中市场已经长达40多年，对世界增长最快的地区拥有罕见的洞察力。如今莫比乌斯担任着弗兰克林-邓普顿（Franklin Templeton）新兴市场集团董事长的职位，管理着450亿美元的资产，正在押下与众不同的赌注。他认为，中国超强的增长趋势将得以延续，而欧洲能通过自救，避免毁灭。对于中国，他表示，“人们过于悲观了。”在欧洲，他认为即使决策层仍在努力忙着解决大问题，一些规模较小的国家颇有价值。（他对此充满信心。）喜欢穿白西装、打亮色领带的莫比乌斯从他在新加坡的办公室接受了《财富》杂志（Fortune）记者的电话采访。以下是经过编辑的采访摘要：

现在，很多人对于中国的GDP增长都持怀疑态度。您说增长率是7%。这是真的吗？

    我知道，很多人都质疑中国发布的数据，但如果看与中国相关的独立数据，比方说，从西方、从日本、从德国出口到中国的数据来看，你会发现，增长率还是非常不错的。如今，很显然，增长正在减速，但并不意味着中国不再继续增长。即便是最悲观的预计，也可能是预计增长5%，比美国或欧洲当前的增速高出了5倍。

那么，为什么中国股市今年毫无起色？

    中国股市表现不好的一个原因是大量的新股发售，也就是IPO。去年，新兴市场IPO总额约为2,500亿美元，其中很大一部分在中国。今年很可能会出现同样的状况。新股这样涌入市场，往往会从抽走二级市场的资金，导致股票市场走势欠佳。这种状况不会永远持续下去。随着更多资金进入这些市场，会有转机出现。

您为什么持有这么多大型能源股，比如俄罗斯的卢克石油（Lukoil）、俄罗斯天然气公司（Gazprom）和中国石油（PetroChina）？

    我们在世界各地旅行的过程中注意到的一件事情，无论是在中国、非洲还是其他任何地方，都对能源有巨大的需求。这是受到运输极大增长，以及冰箱、洗衣机、空调、电脑、手提电脑、iPhone等消费增加的推动所致。所有这些都需要电，而发电的最有效方式是通过煤炭或石油。所有有关大宗商品价格下跌的担忧都过度了。从长期来看，趋势相当明确：大宗商品价格将继续上涨。

    Mark Mobius has picked up a variety of nicknames over the years -- the Pied Piper of Emerging Markets, the Globetrotter -- but all of them are inspired by the same fact: The 73-year-old has long been one of Wall Street's most adventurous investors. After more than four decades of investing in developing markets, he has rare insight into the world's fastest-growing regions. Today Mobius, who as chairman of the emerging-markets group at Franklin Templeton manages $45 billion in assets, is betting against the crowd. He believes that China's superpowered growth will continue and thatEurope will save itself from utter destruction. On China, he says, "People have gotten too pessimistic." And in Europe he's finding gems in smaller countries even as policymakers work to solve the big issues. (He's confident they will.) Mobius, who favors white suits and bright ties, spoke by phone with Fortune from his office in Singapore. Here are edited excerpts:

A lot of people are skeptical about China's GDP growth now. You say the growth rate is 7%. But is it real?

    I know a lot of people have questioned the statistics coming out of China, but if you look at independent statistics as related to China -- for example, exports from the West, from Japan, from Germany to China -- you will see that the growth rates are very healthy. Now, it's clear that there's a deceleration of growth taking place, but that deceleration doesn't mean that China's not growing. Even at the most pessimistic forecast, you're probably looking at 5% growth, which is five times higher than what the U.S. or Europe is doing.

So why haven't Chinese stocks gone anywhere this year?

    One of the reasons the stock market in China has not performed very well is because of the tremendous number of new issues, or IPOs. Last year they totaled about $250 billion in all emerging markets -- and a large portion of that was just in China. This year it will probably be about the same. When you have that kind of new paper coming in, it tends to draw money away from the secondary market, and the stock markets tend to underperform. It's not going to last forever. There will be an evening out as more money comes into these markets.

Why do you own so many big energy companies, such as Russia's Lukoil and Gazprom and China's PetroChina?

    One of the things that we notice as we travel around the world, whether it be in China or Africa or anywhere else, is an incredible appetite for energy driven by the tremendous increase in transportation but also by the increased consumption of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, laptops, iPhones -- you name it. All of this requires power, and that power is most efficiently produced by coal and by oil. All the fears about commodity prices declining have been overdone. Over the long term, the trends are very clear: Commodity prices will continue to rise.

你对欧元区的前景相对乐观。为什么？

    首先，我认为很多人太没耐心。他们没有意识到欧洲人做事可能总是比世界上其他地方慢很多。我认为，终有一天，他们将找出解决方法。而且，如果回头看看，所有那些耸人听闻的警告所讲的那些可怕事情最终并没有在欧洲发生。我们仍将等待希腊退出欧元区，但这一幕至今还没有发生。

那么，您购买欧洲发展中国家的股票吗？

    我们专注于那些至少有50%利润来自新兴市场的公司。因此，我们倾向于进入罗马尼亚、波兰和匈牙利。我们一直在购买银行股。奥地利银行Raiffeisen Bank就是一个很好的例子。它在整个东欧拥有庞大的网络，特别是在俄罗斯，它是最大的外资银行之一。该股承压是因为投资者对欧洲的整体看法所致。

为什么不购买一些从新兴市场获得大部分利润的发达国家公司？

    这种间接的方式不能带来完全的投资敞口。可能给你50%，然后你会被剩下的一半业务所拖累，因为这部分业务增长缓慢或迟缓。但也有机会，比方说像雅芳（Avon Products)这样的公司。该公司出了一些问题。股价大跌。但它有60%以上的利润来自新兴市场，而且还在增长。因此，这是一只我们可以买入的股票，可以用一种廉价的方式进入一些市场。大型跨国公司在这些市场已经收购了富有吸引力的本土消费品公司。

覆盖广泛的MSCI新兴市场指数目前的股息收益率接近3%。新兴市场是收益投资者的乐园吗？

    投资者一直要求从新兴市场公司身上获得更高的回报，因为它们的感知风险更高。这里需要强调的是“感知风险”。股息问题的另一个原因是，这些国家有很多公司都是由国家控制，而政府要求获得派息。它们想要回报。因此，中国公司（比如中国石油）的投资者们就享有不错的派息。或者在巴西，你也会看到巴西石油公司（Petrobras）支付相当不错的派息。我们持有这两家公司的股票。

第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）对于你投资的新兴市场意味着什么？

    总的来说是件好事，因为它向全球体系注入了更多流动性，而这些流动性需要找个家。我们一直有些意外，比方说，我们的前沿市场基金（Frontier Markets Fund）在两年前推出后已经吸引了12亿美元的资金。资金流的大量增长给我们带来了收益。

    译者：早稻米

You are relatively bullish on the prospects for the eurozone. Why?

    First of all, I think a lot of people have been too impatient. They don't realize the European psyche tends to take things much slower than maybe other parts of the world. I think at the end of the day they are going to come to a solution. And if you look back, the dire warnings of all these terrible things that were going to happen in Europe haven't happened. We're still waiting for Greece to exit, and it hasn't happened.

So are you buying stocks in developing countries within Europe?

    We have to concentrate only on those companies that have at least 50% of their assets' earnings in emerging markets. So we would tend to be in places like Romania, Poland, and Hungary. We've been buying banks. Raiffeisen Bank in Austria is a good example. It has a tremendous network throughout Eastern Europe, and, particularly in Russia, it's one of the largest foreign banks. The stock is depressed because of the general attitude toward Europe.

Why not buy a developed-market company that gets a large portion of its earnings from emerging markets?

    The indirect way unfortunately doesn't give you the full exposure. It gives you maybe 50%, and then you're stuck with the other half, which is slow-growing or slower-growing. But there are opportunities, such as a company like Avon Products (AVP). It's had problems. The stock is way down. But over 60% of its earnings are in emerging markets and growing. So that's a company that we buy because it's a way to get in cheaply to markets where large multinationals have already acquired the juicy local consumer companies.

The broad MSCI Emerging Markets index now has a dividend yield of almost 3%. Are emerging markets a good play for income investors?

    Investors have been demanding better returns from emerging-market companies because of their higher perceived risk. Underline the words "perceived risk." The other reason for the dividends is that a lot of the companies in these countries are state-controlled, and the governments demand dividends. They want returns. So investors in Chinese companies -- for example, PetroChina (PTR) -- see nice dividends coming their way. Or in Brazil you will see Petrobras (PBR) paying pretty healthy dividends. We own both of those stocks.

What does QE3 mean for the emerging markets where you invest?

    Generally speaking, it's very good because it pours more liquidity into the system globally, and that liquidity needs a home. We have been quite surprised, for instance, that our Frontier Markets Fund (TFMAX) has attracted $1.2 billion since it was introduced two years ago. We get the benefit of a tremendous boost in flows.