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任天堂挤上数字化销售末班车

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任天堂终于开始试水利润颇丰的数字化游戏市场。不过,这家传统游戏厂商来得太晚了,已经丧失了先机。除非取得快速发展,否则任天堂很难突出重围。

    数字化销售是目前视频游戏界的新宠儿.换言之,玩家可以直接从网络下载游戏。用户获取游戏的方式更简单,而且游戏无需包装也不需要任何运输成本,从而提高了制作商的利润。不过,假如可以说数字化销售油水充足的话,那么也可以说任天堂此前(Nintendo)一直荤腥不沾。

    不过,在过去几个月,任天堂终于开始试水利润颇丰的数字化游戏市场。目前,该市场的销售额每月已达4亿美元。

    今年8月,任天堂在3DS掌机平台推出了扛鼎之作《新超级马里奥兄弟2》(New Super Mario Bros. 2),游戏将同时提供卡带和下载两个版本。借助马里奥东风,任天堂本月宣布,在圣诞节前,公司将在任天堂在线商店eShop上推出多款游戏。

    eShop上线新游戏恰逢在线视频游戏市场竞争加剧之时。目前,已经有超过九家公司涉足这一领域,既包括传统游戏机制造商微软(Microsoft)的Xbox Live Arcade,也包括视频游戏开发商电子艺界(EA)旗下的Origin。任天堂加入数字化战局的时机有些太迟了,维尔福(Valve)的Steam平台凭借先发优势,几乎不费吹灰之力就确立了领导地位。Steam于2003年发布,为PC平台和索尼(Sony)PlayStation3提供下载服务。自发布时起,Stream就一直牢牢统治着数字化市场,市场份额已经高达50-70%。

    相比之下,发布于2011年的任天堂eShop仍显稚嫩,其游戏数仅为Stream的三分之一。而且,在任天堂的整体营收中,eShop的份额仍然微不足道。韦德布什证券公司(Wedbush Securities)分析师迈克尔•帕切预测,eShop的销售额可能仅占《新超级马里奥兄弟2》全部销售额的5%。

    帕切称:“人们不习惯把网络在线和任天堂扯上关系。这些东西都是eShop发布后才加上的。我并不认为eShop会失败,但也不会得到什么积极的成果,因为人们需要时间去了解,eShop上确实有些好东西。”

    任天堂认为eShop的基础很好。根据该公司执行副总裁斯科特•莫菲特的说法,3DS用户的配售率为4.7。所谓配售率,是指用户为每台游戏机所额外购买的软件数。这一数字与竞争对手不相上下。Xbox Live Arcade发布两年后,也就是2006年,其配售率在6到7之间。

    eShop的配售率未来数月肯定还会上升。莫菲特表示,任天堂计划仿效《新超级马里奥兄弟2》,为今后自行开发的绝大部分游戏提供数字版本。此举将有效提高任天堂的竞争力。

    The gem of the video game industry these days is digital format sales -- games you can directly download from the web. After all, downloading is convenient and eliminates packaging and shipping costs that hurt profit margins. But if there's money to be made at the digital profit trough, Nintendo has been fasting.

    In the past couple of months, however, Nintendo has been trying to nose its way into the profitable digital format business, which drives around $400 million in sales industry-wide every month.

    In August, Nintendo released its first big budget title, New Super Mario Bros. 2,for the handheld 3DS system in both packaged and digital formats. Building on the Mario momentum, the video game maker announced plans this month to release a whole slew of games in its online store, the Nintendo eShop, in time for the holidays.

    This eShop ramp up comes at a time when the online video game market has reached new competitive heights. There are over nine major competitors in this space, ranging from traditional console competitor Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox Live Arcade to video game developer EA Games' (EA) Origin. Nintendo is pushing the boundaries of what it means to be fashionably late to the digital format, while established industry leader Valve's Steam is reaping the benefits of its almost-awkwardly early arrival. Launched in 2003, Steam, a download service for desktops and Sony Playstation 3, has dominated the business ever since. Its estimated market share ranges from 50-70%.

    Nintendo's eShop debuted in June 2011, and the shop's in-store catalog, which is just one third the size of Steam's, shows its youth. The shop also has yet to have a major impact on Nintendo's overall revenues. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter estimates that eShop sales will comprise about 5% of New Super Mario Bros. 2's total sales.

    "People are not accustomed to going online to do anything with Nintendo. It's an afterthought since the company launched it," he says, "I don't think it'll flop, but I don't think you're going to get immediate positive results because people have to learn that there is something there."

    Nintendo believes that the eShop has a strong foundation. According to the company's executive vice president of sales Scott Moffitt, the average 3DS owner's attach rate -- the number of additional purchases for each gaming system it sells -- is 4.7, which is comparable to Nintendo's competitors. Xbox Live Arcade's attach rate in 2006, two years after its debut, was between 6 and 7.

    The eShop's rate should only increase in the coming months. According to Moffitt, Nintendo is set to release the majority of its future internally developed games in the same fashion as New Super Mario Bros. 2, bringing company policy up to speed with the competition.


    任天堂的在线数字游戏业务究竟前景如何?我们目前尚无法预测。该公司近期的首要目标是下一代游戏平台Wii U。Wii U预计于11月中旬上市,将提供eShop接入。高德纳(Garter)分析师布莱恩•布劳称:“任天堂进入的时间太晚,而且进展也不够快。我认为用户只要能连上eShop就谢天谢地了。”

    与此同时,任天堂还打算继续销售老款Wii游戏机。10月15日,该公司宣布将Wii的价格从150美元下调至130美元。

    任天堂应该好好关注一下谷歌(Google)和苹果(Apple)。智能手机、平板电脑以及iPod touch等掌上设备都是绝佳的移动游戏平台,但莫菲特对此不以为然,认为这些产品根本无法与3DS相抗衡。不过,分析师们认为,苹果的应用程序商店和谷歌Play将成为任天堂争夺移动玩家的最大对手。

    事实上,虽然谷歌Play发布时间相对较晚(谷歌2012年将音乐商店和安卓市场合并,推出谷歌Play。),但从应用程序数量上来看,它已经开始逐步接近竞争对手苹果。看来,任天堂唯一的希望是,eShop也能同样取得同样高速的增长。

    译者:项航

    Nintendo's position in the online market business is also entwined with its future. The company's near-term outlook rests in large part on its next generation console, the Wii U, which is set to hit stores in mid-November and will have eShop connectivity. "Nintendo is very late to this game, and they can't move fast enough," says Gartner analyst Brian Blau. "I don't think that their users are probably going to complain that much as long as they have connectivity."

    At the same time, Nintendo seems set on continuing to offer its traditional Wii console. The company announced on October 15 that it would drop the price of the original Wii to $130 from $150.

    Meanwhile, Nintendo had better keep an eye on Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL). Smartphones, tablets, and handheld devices like the iPod touch are now all mobile gaming platforms, and while Nintendo's Moffitt doesn't think those other products directly compete with the 3DS, analysts view Apple's App Store and Google Play as some of Nintendo's chief rivals in the fight for the mobile gamers' time and money.

    In fact, Google Play, a relatively late entry to the app store world (Google combined its music store with the Android Market in 2012 and launched Google Play.), is within striking distance of its Apple counterpart in terms of number of available apps. Nintendo can only hope the eShop experiences similar growth.

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