下个月，Windows 8就将正式发布了，这会是微软公司（Microsoft）的“新可乐”时刻（"New Coke" moment）吗？1985年，可口可乐公司（Coca-Cola）把这个著名饮料升级换代，推出了新一代产品，却没有得到消费者的接受。与此类似，对微软无处不在的各种老版本的PC操作系统来说，微软这次推出的最新版本可能也有点太超前了。如果Windows 8的发布笼罩在市场的困惑和负面报道中，那微软要和苹果公司（Apple）及谷歌公司（Google）在统治移动与平板电脑市场一决高下的计划就不容乐观了。

    多年来，微软一直因为没有推出能与硅谷的众多竞争对手相抗衡的创新产品而饱受诟病。17年前，微软推出了Windows 95操作系统。此后，微软除了推出Xbox游戏机外，基本上再也没有拿出真正能改变市场游戏规则的产品。现在，微软正靠Windows手机操作系统试图与谷歌的Android和苹果的iOS三分天下。它还曾投入巨资，以图赶上谷歌在搜索领域的领军地位。2007年，微软花了63亿美元收购aQuantive公司，试图进军互联网广告市场，但最终却惨败收场，最后该公司的市值在微软的财务报表上显示为区区1亿美元。

    微软今年早些时候对aQuantive价值进行减记，使其财报有史以来第一次出现季度亏损，堪称它在公共关系上的一个污点。也许有人会说，2008年微软在受到误导，拟用450亿美元的巨款收购当时已四分五裂的雅虎公司（Yahoo!）后又明智脱身，是它过去几年间最大的成就。如果收购雅虎的交易达成，微软将面临远比减记62亿美元高得多的巨额亏损。

    尽管麻烦不断，微软仍然赚得盆满钵满。这主要归功于始终占据市场统治地位的Windows操作系统和包括文字处理程序Word和电子表单Excel在内的Office套装产品。这两大产品分别占据微软总销量的25%和35%，贡献的利润则更高。据市场调查公司NetMarketshare的数据称，Windows系统占桌面市场的份额高达惊人的92%。因此，就算犯些错，投资失利，微软还是照样能称雄技术界和投资界，还能付给投资者高达3%的股票红利。

    微软之所以能在PC用户中保持极大的市场份额，原因之一是大家在工作场合和家庭中都已对Windows和Office非常熟悉了。换言之，它的主打产品大家已用得得心应手，这就形成了相当一部分的计算机用户基础。没人喜欢从头学新东西——比如怎么打开一个文档或关机。所以尽管华尔街总在抱怨微软缺乏创新，用户却从微软产品的延续一致性中得到了实惠。

    微软非常清楚用户对变化有多敏感。这就是为什么在它前一版操作系统Windows 7上，用户可以按自己的喜好改变某些菜单，让它看起来就像老版Windows。但在Windows 8中，微软取消了大量能让用户按老习惯使用的经典特性，还加入了大量新功能，而这些功能对使用鼠标和键盘操作的传统桌面系统来说并不太好用。

    实际上，Windows 8主要是为使用触摸屏的PC机设计的，而这是一个刚刚兴起的市场领域。比如，在Windows 8的预发布版中，开发者和用户很难弄清如何关掉欢迎界面，直接访问文件。要想这么做，就得用指尖向上划动，对触摸屏使用者来说，这是个再自然不过的动作，但对用惯鼠标和键盘的人来说这就非常陌生了。

    Will the launch of Windows 8 next month be Microsoft's "New Coke" moment? Like when Coca-Cola introduced a new version of its celebrated drink in 1985, Microsoft's latest iteration of its ubiquitous PC operating system may be too radical a departure from past versions, potentially setting off a revolt among consumers, as New Coke it did for Coca-Cola. And if confusion and bad publicity cloud the launch of Windows 8, the company's plan to take on Apple and Google in the battle to control mobile and tablet markets could be jeopardized.

    Microsoft (MSFT) has been criticized for years for its lack of innovation compared to rivals down in Silicon Valley. Besides the launch of its Xbox gaming system, Microsoft has largely failed to come to market with a truly game-changing product since the launch of its Windows 95 operating system seventeen years ago. The company's current Windows phones have struggled competing with Google (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS. The company has also shredded billions of dollars to catch up with Google's lead in search. Its attempts to make inroads in the internet advertising market with the $6.3 billion acquisition of aQuantive in 2007 was a rout that ultimately forced the firm to write the value of the company down to a mere $100 million.

    The aQuantive write down earlier this year forced Microsoft to report its first quarterly loss ever, a public relations stain. One could argue that Microsoft's greatest feat in the past few years was walking away from its totally misguided $45 billion bid to take over the broken internet giant Yahoo! (YHOO) in 2008. If that deal would have gone through, Microsoft would be facing a much bigger write down than just $6.2 billion.

    Despite all of its troubles, Microsoft still makes money. This is due to the continued domination of its Windows operating system and its Microsoft Office suite of products, which includes the word processing program Microsoft Word and the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Windows and MS Office make up 25% and 35%, respectively, of Microsoft's total sales and a much larger chunk of its profits. Windows has a desktop market share hovering around a whopping 92%, according to NetMarketshare data. So even with its fumbles and failed ventures, the company remains relevant in the technology world as well as in the investment world, paying out a fat 3% dividend yield to shareholders.

    One of the reasons why Microsoft has been able to maintain its massive market share among PC users is the widespread familiarity with Windows and MS Office in both the workplace and at home. Literacy in its major products form part of the bedrock of computing, in other words. No one likes to relearn something -- like how to open a document or shut down a computer. So while Wall Street complains about the firm's lack of innovation, users benefit from the consistency in Microsoft products.

    Microsoft knows very well how sensitive users are to change. That's why on its latest operating system, Windows 7, users have the ability to customize certain menus to look like they did in previous generations of Windows. But with Windows 8, Microsoft is taking away a multitude of classic features without the ability for users to roll them back. It also adds a slew of new features that don't work very well on a traditional desktop that uses a mouse and keyboard.

    It turns out Windows 8 is designed primarily for use on a touchscreen PC, an area of the market that is in its infancy. For example, in the pre-launch version of the operating system, developers and users have had a hard time figuring out how to get off the Windows 8 welcome screen to access their files. The way to do that is to flick up, a motion that is somewhat intuitive on a touchscreen, but is totally foreign using a mouse and keyboard.

    而这还只是恶梦的开始。一旦进入系统，用户看到的不再是多年来已习惯的微软桌面，而是一堆漂浮在黑色背景上五颜六色、叫做“实时图块”（live tiles）的矩形色块。这些色块在屏幕上平行移动，迫使使用者向左或向右划动它们，或用鼠标向一侧滚动，对于绝大多数使用非触摸屏设备的用户来说，这又是一个陌生的动作。有一个办法可以打开看起来比较像桌面的屏幕，但是任务栏里的“开始”按钮不见了，而“开始”按钮通常是进入电脑所有功能的入口。既然“开始”按钮取消了，那这个伪桌面也就失去了存在的基本意义。

    关于这个操作系统不好用的批评声已经不绝于耳。比如，它需要三到四步才能关机。像“控制面板”和其他一些重要菜单都已不复存在，它们的功能被分散在漂浮的各个色块中。所以，这个新系统不仅仅是和旧版本大有不同，它看起来就效率低下。当然了，微软还是和往常一样自有一番理论。近来有一则介绍Windows历史的博文流传甚广。文中，Windows和Windows Live部门的总裁斯蒂文•辛诺夫斯基称：“在计算机发展史上，人们总是不断地适应新模式和互动方式——就算在不同的网站、应用和手机之间转换，也是如此。我们会帮助大家适应新系统，你们很快就会非常习惯使用这些新模式，微软对此很有信心。”

    平心而论，微软开发这个基于平板电脑的操作系统是非常精明的，但它似乎抢跑了一步。尽管人们普遍预计PC市场最终会进化到基于触摸屏设备，但这一进程才刚刚开始，而且还要好几年才能最终过渡到这一市场。不过微软将在大量触摸屏手机上搭载Windows 8，微软自行设计开发的首款基于Windows的平板电脑Surface也会使用这一系统。

    触摸屏手机和平板电脑是运行Windows 8的理想设备，但如果现在就强迫99%还没有用上触摸屏PC的用户使用这一操作系统，似乎就是个错误了。这是因为在PC上用Windows 8的用户很可能会被弄得垂头丧气，而这会让他们对Windows 8手机和Surface避之唯恐不及。让人担心的是，这些“实时图块”会让用户留下数字领域的创伤后心理障碍（PTSD），让他们每次看见这些设备就害怕得远远躲开。

    万一真的发生这种情况，它对微软来说就太遗憾了，因为Windows 8在触摸屏设备上运行起来是不赖的。在移动平台领域，微软远远落在苹果和谷歌之后，处于第三的位置。所以，如果微软打算在这个至关重要的市场中从这两大劲敌手中夺得一些市场份额的话，Windows 8的正式推出就必须毫无瑕疵。但从目前来看，这种愿望似乎很难实现，因为那些已经用了预发布版快一年的IT工程师对这个系统纷纷给出了负面评价。大家的共识似乎是Windows 8最好是严格限于触摸屏设备使用，但是眼看离正式发布只有一个月的时间了，这一点好像已经不太可能。

    Windows和微软Office可能在各自的领域里都不是最好的软件，但对用户来说，它们用起来既熟悉又舒服，就像戴一只旧手套或是抿一口可乐。1985年，可口可乐公司推出所谓“新可乐”，一股脑地剥夺了用户的这种舒适感和熟悉感，结果付出了惨痛的代价。但它最后还是作出了让步，推出新可乐三个月后就将老配方产品放在它边上，并称其为“经典可乐”。

    微软如能从可口可乐公司的教训中有所收获将是明智的，它也应该有个应急计划，允许较早用上Windows 8的用户切换回Windows 7系统，以防大家集体发飙。微软的一位发言人告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune），购买Windows 8企业版的公司可以回到Windows 7上，而普通用户如果是从微软商店购买的Windows 8，则可以在购买的头30天里要求退货。

    如果微软在用户感到恐慌前就能解决好他们的顾虑，Windows 8可能还能有一条生路，并在触摸屏设备上茁壮成长起来。而在可口可乐公司这个案例中，新可乐所造成的损害是无法弥补的，公司最终不得不将其封杀。而对微软来说，这种风险要大得多。如果仅仅因为Windows 8比较超前就扼杀了它，不仅是对资源的极大浪费，还会让微软在争夺移动市场控制权的竞赛中远远地落于人后，甚至可能再也无法赶上对手，陷在PC市场上永远动弹不得。

    译者：清远

    Getting started is just the beginning of the nightmare. Once inside, instead of the normal Microsoft desktop, which has been around for decades, users are greeted to a bunch of colored squares floating in a black background, called "live tiles." The squares run off the screen horizontally, forcing users to flick to the right or left, or side scroll using a mouse, which is again a foreign motion for most users on a non-touchscreen device. There is one way to get to a screen that looks like a desktop, but it is missing the "start" button in the taskbar, which normally serves as the gateway to all of the computer's functions. By removing the start button, the fake desktop basically loses its primary purpose.

    There has been loads of criticism about the usability of the operating system. For example, it takes three or four steps to simply shut down the computer. Important menus like "control panel" and others simply don't exist, with their functions spread out all over the floating tiles. So besides being different, the new operating system also looks inefficient. Naturally, Microsoft feels differently. "Throughout the history of computing, people have again and again adapted to new paradigms and interaction methods—even just when switching between different websites and apps and phones," Steven Sinofsky, president of the Windows and Windows Live Division at Microsoft, wrote in an extensive blog post on the history of Windows. "We will help people get off on the right foot, and we have confidence that people will quickly find the new paradigms to be second-nature."

    To be fair, Microsoft was smart to develop a tablet-based operating system, but it just seems to have jumped the gun a bit. While the PC market is expected to move eventually to being touch based, the transition has barely begun and is expected to take several years to make its way through the market. The company will be launching Windows 8 on a number of touchscreen mobile phones as well as on their own tablet PC, the Microsoft Surface, which will be the first Windows-based computer to be designed by Microsoft.

    Touchscreen phones and tablets are ideal launching pads for Windows 8, but forcing the operating system down the throats of PC users now, when 99% are not using touchscreen PCs, seems like a mistake. That's because the frustration users are likely to experience using Windows 8 on their PC could cause them to shun Windows 8 phones and the Surface. The fear here is that those "Live tiles" could give users the digital equivalent of PTSD, making them run in horror every time they see them.

    That would be a shame because Windows 8 isn't bad running on touchscreen devices. Starting in a distant third position behind Apple and Google on the mobile platform, Microsoft needs Windows 8 to launch flawlessly if it intends on grabbing market share from either company in that critical growth market. It's hard to see how that can happen given all the negative comments that have floated up from IT professionals who have been using the pre-launch version of Windows 8 for nearly a year. The general consensus seems to be that Windows 8 would be best restricted to touchscreen devices, but that seems impossible now with the product launch only a month away.

    Windows and MS Office may not be the best software in their respective fields, but they are comfortable and familiar to users, like an old glove or a sip of Coke. The Coca-Cola Company took a drumming when it took away that comfort and familiarity from consumers back in 1985 with the launch of "New Coke." But the company eventually relented, reintroducing its old formula alongside the new one three months later, calling it "Coca-Cola Classic."

    Microsoft would be wise to learn from Coca-Cola's experience and should have a contingency plan ready allowing early adopters of Windows 8 to downgrade back to Windows 7 in case mass hysteria breaks out. A Microsoft spokeswoman told Fortune that companies that buy the Enterprise edition of Windows 8 will be able to downgrade to Windows 7 and that everyday consumers can get a refund on Windows 8 within the first 30 days of purchase if the software was bought from the Microsoft store.

    If Microsoft can address user concerns before they panic, then Windows 8 may survive and grow strong among touchscreen devices. In the Coca-Cola case, the damage was irreparable, forcing the company to kill New Coke. The stakes in this case are much higher for Microsoft. Killing Windows 8 just because it's a bit ahead of its time would not only be a massive waste of resources, but could also set Microsoft back so far in the race to control the mobile market that it might never catch up to its competitors, leaving it trapped in the PC forever.