本周一，汽车租赁业巨头赫兹（Hertz）宣布以23亿美元收购竞争对手Dollar Thrifty。消息一出，市场反响热烈，两家公司的股价大幅上扬。虽然从各个角度来看，两家公司合并看起来都是前途一片光明，但现在远未到尘埃落定的时候。要想顺利完成收购，赫兹还得获得政府监管部门与Dollar股东的批准。而对这两个方面，市场不能过于乐观。而且，即便交易获得批准，我们也不清楚赫兹计划采取什么方式实现收入协同效益，证明它所支付的巨额溢价物有所值。

    为了更好地理解此次交易，我们需要回顾一下历史。过去十年，美国汽车租赁业经历了巨大变革。以前，形形色色的小公司为了争夺市场份额和在当地机场的柜台空间展开激烈厮杀。如今，市场份额已经集中到几大巨头手中。过去几年，全美汽车租赁公司（National）收购了阿拉莫（Alamo），安飞士租车（Avis）与巴吉（Budget）合并，Thrifty与Dollar成功联姻，而赫兹则收购了优势租车公司（Advantage）。2007年，企业租车公司（Enterprise Rent-A-Car）收购了合并之后的全美/阿拉莫车队，成为美国最大的汽车租赁公司。

    过去这个十年行将结束之时，美国大型汽车租赁公司从原来的九家锐减到四家，分别是赫兹、安飞士/巴吉、企业租车公司和Dollar/Thrifty。这四家公司控制了美国汽车租赁市场87%的份额。但对于汽车租赁业寡头垄断的情况，大部分公众并不知情，因为许多公司保留了原先的品牌，结果让消费者误以为自己还有更多选择。但在2008年经济危机期间，虽然这四家公司均具有强大的市场支配能力，但租车定价仍然面临着巨大的压力。虽然没有公司破产，但由于商务出行与休闲旅客出行数量减少，整个汽车租赁业的利润严重缩水。

    此时，赫兹将行业衰退看作扩张的大好机会，于是便将目标对准了竞争对手Dollar Thrifty。表明上看，赫兹收购的目的是实现公司客户群多样化。当时赫兹的核心客户是商务旅行者。而Dollar公司的客户主要是休闲旅客，两家公司合并可以更加有效地利用其庞大的车队，公司可以在周末将车租给回家的商务旅行者和出行的休闲旅客。

    经过数月谈判，2010年4月，Dollar终于同意赫兹以每股41美元、或总价12亿美元发起收购（首次）。由于担心错失机会，赫兹竞争对手安飞士巴吉决定抬高收购价格，主动向Dollar提出约13亿美元的收购要约。结果，赫兹与安飞士之间爆发竞购战。然而，尽管安飞士的出价一直高于赫兹，但Dollar董事会似乎更倾向于与赫兹合作。对于自己的立场，Dollar公司给出的理由是，虽然安飞士的出价更高，但公司担心与其合并可能会受到反垄断问题的阻碍。

    但最后，Dollar Thrifty股东感觉自己吃了亏，而且与安飞士一样，赫兹也得面对同样的反垄断问题。于是，Dollar公司股东投票否决了赫兹的首次收购要约，整个收购过程重新回到了起点。这种情况表明，要想收购Dollar，股东的力量不容小觑，但要想获得他们的支持绝非易事。据称，在公布最近一次收购要约之前，赫兹就收购价格咨询了Dollar大股东，至于他们对赫兹开出的价格是否满意，我们不得而知。如果不满意，他们肯定还会阻止收购。

    然而，即便收购价格令股东满意，收购还需要获得政府监管部门的批准。公司股东否决首次收购时，最大的担忧就是反垄断问题。有鉴于此，外界普遍认为，在政府发表意见之前，新交易不会对外公布。然而冗长的政府审查过程早在2010年便已开始，至今仍在继续，不禁让外界对赫兹的动机产生了一系列疑问。

    鉴于收购完成后公司庞大的规模，这笔交易能否顺利获得监管部门批准现在还很难说。赫兹曾试图淡化关于市场份额的争论，称合并后的新公司仅占美国汽车租赁市场的23%，而其最大竞争对手企业租车公司所占市场份额则是36%。听起来很有道理，但实际上这种说法歪曲了事实，因为它把机场内与机场外汽车租赁都计算在内。而实际上，汽车租赁巨头最赚钱的是机场内租车，因为机场内租车收取的费用是机场外租车的两倍。所以，如果不算机场外租车点，赫兹与Dollar合并后将占汽车租赁市场的38%，肯定会引起华盛顿的警觉。

    The markets fervently applauded the $2.3 billion merger announcement between car rental giants Hertz and Dollar Thrifty on Monday, giving both companies a healthy bump in shareholder value. But while the merger looks promising on many levels, it is hardly a done deal. Hertz still needs the approval of government regulators as well as Dollar shareholders to make it happen, two things the market shouldn't take for granted. And even if the deal goes through, it is still unclear how Hertz plans to achieve the revenue synergies needed to justify the hefty premium it will have paid.

    In order to understand this deal we need to take a look back in time. The car rental business in the US has changed dramatically in the last decade. What used to be a diverse set of small companies fighting it out for market share and counter space at the local airport has become very concentrated. In the last few years National bought Alamo, Avis merged with Budget, Thrifty hooked up with Dollar (DTG) and Hertz acquired Advantage. Then in 2007, Enterprise Rent-A-Car acquired the combined National/Alamo fleet, making it the largest car rental company in the US.

    By the end of the last decade the number of major car rental companies in the US had gone from about nine to just four: Hertz, Avis/Budget, Enterprise and Dollar/Thrifty. Together, the four car companies controlled 87% of the US car rental market. But the public remained mostly oblivious of the car rental oligopoly as the companies retained their old brand names, giving the illusion of choice when in fact there was very little. But despite their strong market power, rental car pricing still came under pressure during the 2008 recession. While none of the companies faced bankruptcy, profits were severely curtailed across the board as both the business and leisure traveler stayed off the road.

    Seeing an opportunity to expand during the dip, Hertz decided to move in on its smaller rival, Dollar Thrifty. The rationale behind the deal was to ostensibly diversify Hertz's client base beyond its core customer: the business traveler. The story was that a combination with Dollar, whose customers were mainly leisure travelers, would allow the company to utilize its extensive fleet in a more efficient way as it could rent cars on the weekends when business travelers go home and leisure travelers take to the roads.

    After a few months of negotiations, Dollar agreed to be acquired by Hertz (for the first time) in April 2010 for $41 a share or $1.2 billion. Fearing a lost opportunity, rival Avis Budget decided to make a higher, unsolicited offer for Dollar for around $1.3 billion. A bidding war between Hertz and Avis commenced, but Dollar's board seemed set on doing a deal with Hertz, even though Avis consistently outbid its rival. Dollar justified its position saying that while Avis's bid may be higher, it feared that any deal with Avis would be blocked on anti-trust grounds.

    Dollar Thrifty shareholders felt they were being short-changed and that anti-trust concerns was just as much, if not more, of an issue with Hertz as it was with Avis. Shareholders ended up voting down Hertz's first offer, sending the whole process back to the drawing board. The move showed that Dollar's shareholders were a force to be reckoned with and that their support shouldn't be taken for granted. There is talk that major Dollar shareholders were consulted on the price before the latest offer was announced, but it is unclear if they were happy with the numbers. If not, they could end up derailing the merger yet again.

    But even if the price is right, the deal still has to get past government regulators. Given that anti-trust was a major issue to shareholders the first time around, it was widely believed that a new deal wouldn't be announced until after the government issued its opinion. But the tedious government review process, which began all the way back in 2010, is still ongoing, raising questions as to Hertz's motives.

    It is hard to see how all could be fine on the regulatory front given how big the company's footprint would be after the deal is consummated. Hertz has tried to downplay the market share argument, saying that the combined company would make up just 23% of the US car rental market, while its next biggest competitor, Enterprise, would have 36%. While that is true, it distorts the picture somewhat as it counts car rentals both on- and off-airport. It is at the airport where the big firms make most of their money as they can charge customers double the going rate off-airport. So if one strips out off-airport locations, the Hertz and Dollar deal would command around 38% of the of the rental market, which is sure to raise alarm bells in Washington.

    通常情况下，如果并购之后在本地市场仍有三四家竞争对手，这样的并购一般都能获得监管部门的批准。但如果竞争对手只剩两家，就会引起监管部门的严重担忧。汽车租赁市场的竞争性原本就非常有限，因此，赫兹与Dollar/Thrifty合并之后，至少在好几个地方市场将出现只有它们两家公司竞争的情形。

    不过就在昨天，为了提高投资者对收购的信心，赫兹宣布将出售旗下的休闲旅行子公司优势租车。与此同时，公司还表示，为了获得监管部门批准，公司已经做好了其他让步准备。但它并未透露让步的具体内容，以及合并后的公司将为此付出的代价。不过，需要注意的是，虽然出售优势看起来已经是不小的让步，但实际上并非如此。优势本身在美国国内汽车租赁市场所占的份额不足1%，所以赫兹放弃优势不会有太大用处。据彭博新闻社（Bloomberg News）报道，优势业务的售价只有1,600万美元，这也证明这项项业务根本达不到赫兹声称的价值水平。

    另外，即便收购获得政府批准，赫兹也有可能被要求剥离部分业务或做出妥协，为区域性汽车租赁公司创造公平的竞争环境。而这么做需要付出高昂的成本。如果政府态度强硬，赫兹可能被迫让步。从长期来看，可能远远高于合并带来的成本协同效益。之前，公司曾声称合并之后每年可以实现1.6亿美元的成本协同效益。此外，赫兹和市场均深信不疑的收入协同效益也会大打折扣。

    问题还是在于，赫兹能否实现有意义的收入协同效益，来补偿收购Dollar Thrifty所支付的溢价。这一点很大程度上取决于汽车租赁行业未来的发展。过去几年，汽车租赁行业收入经历了两位数的增长。但由于经济陷入停滞，形势可能急转直下。经过几个季度的强劲增长之后，今年第二季度，Dollar Thrifty公司公布的收入情况与去年同期持平。这还是在公司最大限度削减成本的基础上才取得的成绩。

    影响汽车租赁行业未来收入的另外一个因素是近期二手车价格的下跌。上个月，二手车价格比去年同期出现下跌，三年来尚属首次。而汽车租赁公司经常需要转卖车辆，因此受到二手车市场的制约。据摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）披露，二手车价格1%的波动对汽车租赁公司税前利润的影响幅度便在10%左右。预计二手车价格下降的趋势将一直延续到年底，这对于需要证明此项交易价值的赫兹来说无异于雪上加霜。当然，这一切的前提是交易能够顺利完成。

    现在存在这么多的不确定因素，也就难怪之前公布的并购协议条款会如此慷慨。据报道，协议规定，Dollar公司有30天时间可自由接受其他出价，随时可以中止协议，无需支付补偿金。这要么表明赫兹与Dollar Thrifty信心十足，认定交易必将顺利完成；要么意味着两家公司底气不足，提前给彼此留好了退路。无论如何，如果赫兹希望公司股票继续保持近期的势头，未来几个月，它肯定得好好向投资者解释一番。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Regulators will usually approve mergers if it leaves three or four competitors in a local market, but they start to show grave concern when it gets down to two. Given the limited competition already in the car rental market, there are several local markets where a Hertz and Dollar/Thrifty merger would lead to just such a scenario.

    Nevertheless, Hertz tried to instill confidence in the deal yesterday by announcing the sale of its leisure-focused Advantage subsidiary. At the same time, the company said it is prepared to make other concessions to get the deal past regulators, but stopped short of saying what those concessions could be and how much revenue it could cost the combined company. But it should be noted that while jettisoning Advantage seems like a big concession, it really isn't. Advantage on its own makes up less that 1% of the domestic car rental market, so its loss doesn't move the needle much. Hertz apparently sold the business for a piddling $16 million, according to Bloomberg News, which means that the business wasn't worth that much anyway.

    But even if the government approves the merger, Hertz may be asked to divest some of its operations or make accommodations to level the playing field for regional car rental companies. This could get very expensive on many levels. If the government plays hardball, Hertz could be asked to make concessions that in the long run could far outweigh the $160 million in annual cost synergies that the company claims it can squeeze out of a tie-up. It would also decrease any revenue synergies that both Hertz and the market believe could be in the cards.

    The question still remains as to whether or not the company could achieve meaningful revenue synergies to account for the premium Hertz just paid to absorb Dollar Thrifty. Part of that rests on the future of the car rental business. The last few years have been great, with double-digit percentage increases in revenue, but that could be coming to a swift end as the economy stalls. Dollar Thrifty reported flat revenue growth for the second quarter of this year compared with the same time last year after posting several strong quarters of growth. It actually made its numbers by slashing costs to the bone.

    Also impacting future revenues is the recent dip in used car prices. Last month was the first month in three years that used car prices reported a decrease in value from the same time last year. That's important because rental car companies are a slave to the used car market as they constantly turnover cars. In fact a 1% move in used prices impacts the pretax profit of rental car companies by 10%, according to Morgan Stanley. The decline in used car values is expected to continue through the year, which will make it that much harder for Hertz to justify this deal – that's, of course, if it ever actually gets done.

    With so many unknowns it is no wonder that the deal has an extremely liberal merger agreement. Dollar reportedly has 30 days to freely entertain other bids and could walk away from the deal at any time without paying a breakup fee. This means that Hertz and Dollar Thrifty are either super confident that the deal will get done or are so unsure that they built an escape hatch. Either way, Hertz will have a lot of explaining to do in the next few months if it intends on keeping the recent pop in its stock.