丰田（Toyota）从召回危机、地震海啸和强势日元的阴影里走出来的来龙去脉媒体已经进行过充分的报道，不过关于丰田与美国品牌竞争的结果，却很少有所推测。

    现在已经越来越明显，第一个在与丰田的竞争中败下阵来的将是福特汽车公司（Ford Motor）。长期以来，丰田一直是最受欢迎的一个汽车品牌，受欢迎程度超过了福特和雪佛兰（Chevrolet）。不过据几位专家预测，很快丰田所有车型的销量——包括赛恩（Scion）和雷克萨斯（Lexus）——将超过福特汽车公司的福特和林肯（Lincoln）品牌，成为继通用汽车（General Motors）之后在美销量排名第二的厂商。R.L. Polk公司的老牌分析师汤姆•利比称：“我们认为丰田今年就会超过福特。”

    丰田的销量上一次超过福特是在2010年3月。今年4月，丰田在零售销量上再次超过福特（不含批量销售）。不过这一次，如果不出意外，丰田似乎已经准备好了永远把福特踩在脚下。以下10个理由可以解释：

    The recovery of Toyota from its recall crisis, Japan's earthquake and tsunami, and the strong yen has been well documented by now, but there has been less speculation about the consequences for the competition.

    It is becoming clear that one of the first casualties will be Ford Motor Co. Toyota has long been the single most popular car brand, outpacing both Ford and Chevrolet. But soon, several experts say, all Toyota vehicles -- including Scion and Lexus -- will surpass Ford Motor's Ford and Lincoln brands and move into second place in U.S. sales after General Motors. "We see Toyota Corp. overtaking Ford Motor Co. this year," says veteran analyst Tom Libby of R.L. Polk.

    Toyota has outsold Ford before, most recently in March, 2010. And this April, it bested Ford in retail units (excluding fleet sales). But this time, save for another unpredictable event, Toyota appears ready to secure a permanent edge. Here are ten reasons why:

1.雷克萨斯完胜林肯

    林肯现在仍然处在为期三年的重建之旅的起步阶段。今年林肯只卖出了34,418辆轿车和卡车。雷克萨斯也在重组，不过它的起点要高得多。从今年年初到现在，雷克萨斯已经售出了88,110辆汽车。林肯计划在未来两年内推出7款新车或升级车型，但雷克萨斯却足足准备了10款车型，包括最畅销的ES 350的升级版。

1.Lexus trumps Lincoln

    Still in the early stages of a three-year rebuilding process, Lincoln has sold only 34,418 cars and trucks this year. Lexus is reloading too, but from a much higher base: 88,110 have moved off dealers' lots since the beginning of the year. Lincoln plans to introduce seven new or redesigned models in the next two years, but Lexus has 10 coming, including its best-selling ES 350.

2.凯美瑞战胜福星

    中型车福星（Fusion，国内版称蒙迪欧——译注）是福特最受欢迎的车型，其备受瞩目的升级版本不久后即将进店开卖。不过它还是无法与丰田的中级车凯美瑞（Camry）竞争。目前凯美瑞是美国最受欢迎的家轿，它的销量足足超过福星三分之一。

2. Camry tops Fusion

    The mid-size Fusion is Ford's most popular car, and an excitingly reworked version is due in showrooms soon. But it can't compete with Camry, America's most popular car, which outsells it by a third.

3.卡罗拉/Matrix令福克斯相形见绌

    丰田卡罗拉（Corolla）和它的两厢改款Matrix虽然没有引起多少汽车发烧友的兴趣，但却吸引了很多关心燃油经济性的买主，因此卡罗拉/Matrix现在已经成了美国第五大畅销车型。相比之下，福克斯（Focus）算是一款引领潮流的车型，但是它的定价也毫不含糊。据汽车网站Edmunds.com报道，2012款新福克斯推出后，它的平均售价比老款上升了2,000多美元。尽管福克斯的批量销售成绩十分健康，但它的总销量仍然只及卡罗拉和Matrix的四分之三。

3. Corolla/Matrix fades Focus

    Corolla and its hatchback cousin, Matrix, excite few enthusiasts, but they do attract lots of economy-minded buyers who have made the combo the country's fifth best-selling vehicles. By contrast, the Focus is a trendsetter, but it is priced like one too. Average transaction prices leaped more than $2,000 when the 2012 model was introduced, according to Edmunds.com. Despite a healthy infusion of fleet sales, Focus only punches in at three-quarters the weight of the Toyota twins.

4.普锐斯风头正劲，福特无车可敌

    丰田的普锐斯（Prius）混合动力系列已经发展壮大到4款车型，包括插电式普锐斯、空间更大的普锐斯V和经济型的普锐斯C。今年五月，普锐斯的销量几乎翻了三倍，达到21,477辆。无论是福特还是其他任何厂商都没有一个高科技品牌可以与之媲美。十多年前丰田推出第一款普锐斯时，外界的质疑呼声很高。但现在单单普锐斯系列的销量就已经超过了别克（Buick）、讴歌（Acura）和林肯。

4. Prius beats N/A

    Toyota's hybrid Prius family has grown to four models, including the plug-in, the roomier "V" and the economical "C." Sales nearly tripled in May to 21,477. Neither Ford, nor any other manufacturer, has a comparable high-tech brand. Skepticism was high when Prius was launched more than a decade ago, but now it outsells Buick, Acura -- and Lincoln -- on its own.

5.皮卡市场：福特喜忧参半

    福特的F-150是个真正的冠军，它算得上是美国最受欢迎的皮卡。丰田的Tundra皮卡无法与之媲美。不过受欢迎也是有代价的。福特过于依赖轻型卡车的销量。在美国这样一个向乘用车倾斜的市场上，轻型卡车的销量占到了福特总销量的近三分之二。而丰田事实上对卡车的重视还不够，因此它的皮卡生产线还有一定的填补空间。

5. Trucks: A mixed blessing for Ford

    Ford's F-150 is a true winner -- the most popular vehicle in America. Toyota's Tundra can't come close. But popularity comes at a price. Ford is uncomfortably overweighted toward light trucks. They account for nearly two-thirds of its sales in a market that skews toward passenger cars. Toyota is actually underweight on trucks, leaving it room to fill out its product line.

6.丰田才刚刚发动

    新车型好比汽车行业的生命之水，而丰田则有大量新车型等着推出。到2013年末，丰田将先后推出改款的RAV4、Tacoma、汉兰达（Highlander）、Avalon、卡罗拉、Sequoia，以及雷克萨斯ES、LS和塞恩xB、xD等车型。正如R.L. Polk公司的分析师利比所指出的那样，“列出丰田公司不打算重新设计的车型列或许还更容易些。”而福特今年最大的新闻也仅仅就是翼虎（Escape）和福星即将推出改款。

6. Toyota is just getting started

    New models are the water of life for the car business, and Toyota has them by the gallon. By the end of 2013, Toyota will introduce redesigned versions of the Toyota RAV4, Tacoma, Highlander, Avalon, Corolla, and Sequoia -- as well as the Lexus ES and LS and Scion xB and xD. As Polk's Libby points out, "It might be easier to just list the models which are not being redesigned." Ford's big news this year is limited to Escape and Fusion.

7.二手车价值

    当前经济形势艰难，消费者在购车上变得更谨慎，也加更关注车辆的转手价值。根据研究机构ALG的最新分析，丰田车转手价值在所有主流品牌中排在第五位，雷克萨斯的转手价值在所有豪华品牌中名列第一。而福特和林肯的转手价值都处于平均线以下。一部分原因是由于福特大量依赖批发销售。几乎四分之一的福特轿车和皮卡都被租车公司等批发买主买走了。而这个比例在丰田只有10%。

7. Residual value

    In a tough economy, consumers are putting a sharper pencil to car deals and looking more closely at resale values. In the latest analysis by auto research firm ALG, Toyota finished fifth among mainstream brands, while Lexus led all luxury brands. Both Ford and Lincoln were rated below average. Part of the reason is heavy fleet sales. Nearly a quarter of Ford's cars and trucks go to fleets. Only 10% of Toyota's do.

8.质量

    福特如今已经品尝到了当科技领军者的苦涩滋味。福特的娱乐信息系统由于在操控上过于复杂而饱受消费者的诟病。最近福特和林肯在汽车网站J.D.Power发起的初始质量调查中受到了不少批评。几年前丰田车在美国也曾传出有突然加速的隐患，不过它却没怎么影响到丰田车主的品牌忠诚度。在J.D.Power的调查中，雷克萨斯排名第一，丰田排名第七。

8. Quality

    Ford is learning the hard way what it is like to be a technology leader. Thanks largely to complaints about the complex controls for its infotainment systems, Ford and Lincoln got clobbered in the latest J.D. Power survey of initial quality. As for all that unintended acceleration talk a few years ago, it has done little to erode the loyalty of Toyota buyers. Lexus finished first and Toyota seventh in the Power survey.

9.小型面包车 

    丰田的塞纳（Sienna）并不起眼，但它如今是美国最畅销的三大小型面包车之一，今年它已经售出了55,289辆。自从福特的自由星（Freestar）于2007年停产后，福特就再也没有推出过新的MPV。不过福特有一款与小型面包车功能相近的车型Flex，今年它的销量为13,349辆。

9. Minivans...

    You couldn't pick Toyota's Sienna out of a lineup, yet it is one of the top three in the minivan segment, and 55,289 have found buyers in 2012. Ford bailed from minivans when it discontinued the Freestar (née Windstar) in 2007. Its functional equivalent, the Flex, has recorded sales of 13,349 this year.

10.野马 

    福特野马（Mustang）在历史上有着独特的地位，它是美国的经典车型，各种汽车刊物无不浓墨重彩地介绍这款车型，而且它也收获了如潮的好评。今年到目前为止，福特已经卖出了38,361辆野马。它的地位是丰田无法撼动的——不过丰田也并没有直接挑战野马的地位，而是通过高端的雷克萨斯LFA超跑和低端的Scion FR-S跑车对野马展开夹击。而且有传言说丰田不久后还会让早已停产的中端跑车Supra复活，加强攻势。

    译者：朴成奎

10. ...and Mustangs

    Unique in its history and heritage, the Mustang is an American classic that generates buckets of ink in enthusiast publications, mountains of goodwill, and, so far this year, sales of 38,361. Toyota can't touch it -- and doesn't try. Instead, it has sandwiched Mustang with the Lexus LFA supercar at the top end and the Scion FR-S underneath. Coming soon: some meat for the middle with the rumored revival of the Toyota Supra.