上周，苹果CEO蒂姆•库克在一年一度的苹果世界开发者大会（Worldwide Developers Conference）上首次做了主题演讲。这也是标志苹果迈入库克时代的一个里程碑。不过库克的工作也有很的大风险。首先要走出乔布斯的阴影就不是件容易的事，其次分析师、投资者以及成百上千万的“果粉”们都在寻找苹果是否出现了创新减缓的苗头，又或是是否有哪里出现了失误的迹象。不过苹果的声明里有一个核心焦点，那就是现在库克正在准备对微软（Microsoft）和谷歌（Google）发动进攻。眼下苹果一边在与微软最新发布的Windows 8操作系统进行竞争，另一方面苹果还想挑战Android系统在手机数量上的优势。以下就是苹果采取的战略：

    微软推出Windows 8后，苹果发布了安装了视网膜显示屏的新款MacBook Pro。随着微软相继发布Windows 8和Metro UI，并开始支持ARM架构，看起来微软已经准备好了通过一系列的新产品发布，让自己这样一个庞大的计算平台朝着更加移动化的方向转变。另外近日微软还推出了一台名叫Surface的平板电脑。那些以移动业务为中心的创业公司、特别是那些主打平板电脑产品的小企业应该会非常关注微软Windows 8的发布。

    不过最近苹果凭借新MacBook Pro的发布扳回了一城。新MacBook搭载了先进的视网膜显示屏，据说待机时间长达7小时，以今天的价格来算，可以说苹果再次为那些靠“Windows系统+英特尔芯片”吃饭的PC厂商提高了追赶的门槛。虽然苹果在现在的全球PC市场上仍然只占了一个较小的份额，但它的营业利润却是其他PC厂商望尘莫及的，说不定未来还有可能把普通PC厂商的利润空间彻底榨干。由于苹果一直保持并扩展着与普通Windows PC厂商的利润差距，因此微软的最强项，也就是它的Windows PC业务被限制住了手脚。对于苹果来说，这相当于对微软的核心业务形成了狠狠一击，同时苹果还在它的主打业务——也就是移动业务上继续保持着行业领导者的地位。

    苹果与Facbook的集成也给了谷歌的Android系统造成了不小的打击。最日苹果与Facebook联合宣布，苹果将在即将正市上市的iOS6操作系统中更深度地集成Facebook。用户会发现，用iOS6登录Facebook变得更容易了，而且利用iPhone或iPad上传照片或音乐也会变得更容易。

    这一举动在战略上直指谷歌和Android系统，但在我看来，最大的受益者其实是Facebook。据报道，Facebook的移动业务一直不甚理想，原因之一就是从移动设备上传内容到Facebook上一直不是很方便。而苹果与Facebook的战略联姻似乎解决了这个问题。同时，通过在iOS上设置默认程序深度整合Facebook，iOS的开发者也拥有了一个渠道，可以获取越来越多的社交网络信息流。如果执行得力，此举还会进一步打压谷歌的社交平台Google+。一直以来Facebook都被人怀疑对移动业务重视不够，现在通过收购照片分享应用Instagram，Facebook终于可以对这种说法给出强力回击了。

    Last week, Tim Cook took the stage and keynoted Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference for the first time. It wasanother milestone marker at the beginning of the Cook era, and a high stakes one at that. Apple's new CEO is laboring not only in the shadow of the great Steve Jobs but the millions of fanboys, analysts and investors looking for any signs of a drop-off in innovation, a loss of a step. But the announcements had one core focus: Cook is going on the offensive against Microsoft and Google. Cook and Apple want to set the competitive battle ground on which Microsoft launches Windows 8 and it wants to attack Google mobile OS unit leadership with Android. Here's how:

    Apple's (AAPL) New MacBook Pro with Retina Display is going after Microsoft (MSFT) Windows 8. With its upcoming Windows 8 launch, its Metro UI and ARM support, Microsoft has a major Windows release that appears well tuned to evolve its mass scale computing platform to a more mobile-centric world. (A new tablet dubbed Surface isn't likely to hurt either.) Mobile-centric startups, especially with tablet offerings or enterprise focus, should watch Microsoft Windows 8's launch closely.

    Apple's new MacBook Pro announcement has stolen a bit of a march on Microsoft here. By launching this new MacBook Pro lineup -- with Retina Display, a reported 7 hour battery life, at today's prices -- Apple is raising the bar (and likely the BOM costs) on WinTel-based PC manufacturers. Though still a small percentage of unit share in the global PC marketplace, Apple now accounts for the vast bulk (potentially all) of PC manufacturer profits. Maintaining and extending that profit pool leadership against the WinTel PC manufacturers limits Microsoft's maneuverability on its strongest front, namely its Windows PC business. From Apple, this is a solid jab at Microsoft on Microsoft's core front, while Apple retains its leadership on its key mobile fronts.

    Apple's Facebook (FB) integration hits Google (GOOG) Android hard. Apple and Facebook announced that Facebook will be much more deeply integrated into the upcoming iOS6. Users will find it much easier to connect to Facebook from iOS6, making it easier to post a photo or a song from your device to Facebook.

    Strategically, this aims right at Google and Android, and the big beneficiary in my view on this announcement is actually Facebook. Facebook has reportedly struggled in mobile, in part because it's been cumbersome to get stuff from your mobile device onto Facebook. This development appears to address this problem. Also, by opening up Facebook on iOS via an API, iOS developers will get access to the increased social flow that this integration enables. Done well, this move may tighten the vice on Google Plus. With the Instagram acquisition and now this, Facebook has some strong responses to any perceptions that they're not focused on mobile.

    至于Android系统，搭载这个系统的手机数量十分庞大，在出货量上仍占据第一的位子，但这个生态系统的健康程度却令人怀疑。我采访过的大多数Android开发者都表示，Android始终难以向高价值的开发者提供持续的利润和收入。部分原因是由于Android的应用商店过于分散，Android设备的形状、大小不一，甚至还存在着许多不同的Android版本。谷歌显然正在着手解决这个问题，不过尚未取得实质性的进展。而苹果采取的将设备、软件和应用商店集成一体的战略使得苹果能够比谷歌更快速、更广泛地促进市场创新，因此谷歌不得全力应对。

    Android系统的另一个难题是如何赢得能为它带来高利润的用户。现在这些高利润用户往往选择使用iPhone或iPad。平板电脑方面表现得更为明显，你见过多少出门带着Android平板的？在今天的PC世界中，最能给厂商带来利润的用户是Mac用户。而在能智能手机世界中也正呈现出同样的态势。

    苹果的声明对创业公司意味着什么？苹果的举措可能会在地图、支付和忠诚消费回馈计划（loyalty program，一种刺激用户重复消费的回馈机制，如积分卡机制）等领域对一些早期的成功公司形成压力。不过我的第一感觉是，苹果并不是要故意扼杀这些创新公司的努力。这个观点可能和主流观点相悖，因为更主流的观点是，苹果、微软、谷歌或Facebook这样的科技巨头往往会模仿或是收购好的创意，把它们纳入自己的生态系统里，从而造成扼杀创新的结果。

    我的观点是，苹果在地图和支付等领域的扩展和提高是一个平台对该生态系统的创新进行管理的必然结果。苹果作为这个平台的所有者，自然在商业上有丰富该平台的兴趣，以便使平台变得功能更强，更能吸引开发者参与构建，同时也吸引更多的用户进行消费。我们可以看看任何的主流平台，比如Xbox、Facebook、谷歌、Twitter、微软的Windows服务器或亚马逊（Amazon）的网络服务，他们为了吸引消费者、游戏玩家、发展社交或企业用户，无一例外都扩展了平台的涉足领域和功能，使平台的功能变得更强大，以吸引更多的开发者和生态系统供应商，进而提供更深入、更有用的终端用户体验。

    因此没有一家创业公司无须继续创新就能偏安一隅。随着苹果继续提高iOS平台的功能性，创业公司也必须持续创新，否则就会陷入困境。在大多数案例中（并非全部），比起一家科技巨头能否把它的平台扩展到某一新的领域，我更担心的是一家创业公司在执行上陷入失败，或是没能持续创新。要记住，苹果的iCloud的目标就是要干掉Dropbox，苹果的音乐社交网络Ping的目标就是干掉音乐网站Pandora，或是阻止像流媒体音乐服务Spotify这样的音乐服务商出现。我这里并非在批评苹果的创新，只是想说，能够做好执行和创新的创业公司仍然能够继续繁荣发展。

    On the Android side, Google's unit share leadership continues to provide the advantages of being #1, but the ecosystem's health is questionable. With most developers I speak with, Android struggles to deliver consistent profits and revenue to high value-add developers. Part of this challenge is due to the fragmentation of Android App Stores, form factors, and even different OS versions running on devices. Google is apparently working to address these issues, but material progress has been slow. Google has to turn on the jets here, as Apple's strategy of having an integrated device, software, and app store ecosystem enables Apple to drive innovation into the marketplace more quickly and more broadly than Google.

    Another key challenge for Android is winning high profit users who today tend to choose iPhones or iPads. On the tablet side, in particular, how often have you actually seen a user with an Android based device in the wild? It's rare. In today's PC world, the most profitable users are Mac users; the same dynamic is starting to take hold in the smartphone world.

    What do Apple's announcements mean for startups? Apple's moves potentially pressure some successful earlier stage companies in spaces such as maps, payments or loyalty programs, but my first take is that Apple is not specifically trying to suffocate these efforts. This may be a contrarian view, as the more common narrative is that tech behemoths, such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, or Facebook copy or buy out good ideas built in their ecosystem and, as a result, stifle innovation.

    My perspective is that Apple's move to extend and improve these areas is the natural order of things for a platform owner managing the innovation of its ecosystem. The platform owner, Apple, has a business interest in enriching its platform, making its platform more functional and more attractive for developers to build against and ideally for users to consume. You can look to any mainstream platform, whether targeting gamers, consumer, social or enterprise -- XBOX, Facebook, Google, Twitter, Microsoft Windows Server or Amazon (AMZN) Web Services for example -- all expand the footprints and capabilities of their platforms to make them more functional for developers and ecosystem providers, for the purpose of providing a deeper and more useful end-user experience.

    So no startup can stand still. As Apple continues to raise the water line on its platform's functionality, startups are going to have to continue to innovate or they'll struggle. And in most (not all) cases, I worry more about the risk of a startup that fails to execute and continue to innovate, than I do a tech giant extending its platform into a space. Keep in mind, Apple's iCloud was supposed to kill Dropbox, and Apple's Ping was supposed to crush Pandora (P) or stop a Spotify before it come out. This is not a critique of Apple's innovation at all; I'm merely saying that startups that execute and innovate can continue to thrive.

    虽然我认为一家创业公司如果执行不利的话可能会面临更大的风险，不过我如何看待苹果的声明以及苹果对特定创业领域的影响呢？首先，我认为现在就下论断还太早，而且我会继续观察苹果会针对开发者推出什么样的服务条款。一旦我们知道了开发者可以利用苹果的这些创新做些什么，我们就会有更好的视角。

    不过让我猜测一下的话，我认为在忠诚卡和消费回馈领域，苹果的Passbook可能会压垮几家羽翼未丰的创业公司。在过去24个月里，这个领域涌入了大量的新进者，但只有很少的几家公司获得了强劲的发展势头，比如主要做忠诚消费回馈计划5Stars和团购网站ScoutMob，它们可能会是活得最久的两家公司。另外，我们还是要看苹果允许开发者利用它的哪些技术。可以说在这个拥挤的领域里，空气已经变得稀薄多了。一两家精英公司可能会幸存下来，其它公司的风险都很大。

    支付和地图是两个较大的类别。我不太担心该领域内领先创业公司的高速增长。部分原因是由于这两个领域的空间很大，聪明的、善于创新的创业公司总能找到合适的定位点进行创新、吸引顾客。此外，在粗略阅读了给开发者的信后（我没有对此进行深度研究），可以看出苹果似乎要对地图采取相对以开发者为中心的方法。不过如果你是一家主要做支付或是导航的公司，而且仍然依赖过时的技术或业务模式，那就值得担忧了。我认为苹果不可能完全控制这两个领域，因此创新仍然是需要的。此外还有一件让我感到高兴的事，那就是苹果将把智能语音助手Siri开放成一个平台服务。虽然苹果已经对Siri做了很多改进，但到目前为止，尽管Siri这个功能演示起来非常酷，但事实上经常使用Siri的用户并不多。或许随着Siri的不断改进，越来越多的人会发现Siri这项服务正变得不可或缺。不管尽管有这些声明，但Siri到目前依然不是一项平台服务，开发者也还不能利用Siri这个平台对应用进行扩展。我相信这不是件容易的事，因为苹果必须严格限制Siri在这方面的使用。不过其他开发者何时才能利用Siri来扩展应用程序，这的确是个值得探讨的问题。如果真有这一天，它将标志着Siri逐渐成为一个主流功能。

    总之，苹果世界开发者大会显示了苹果的行业领军者风采，显示了苹果是一个积极进取、理智精明的竞争者。而且它正在有效地推动iOS生态系统向前发展。

    本文作者Jay Jamison 2010年作为合作人加盟了蓝驰创投（BlueRun Ventures），他住在加州的门洛帕克市。他主要关注移动、消费和企业领域的早期投资机会。他在软件和互联网行业有12年的产品管理和营销经验。他曾以高级总监的身份领导过微软日本分公司的Windows业务集团，也担任过微软产品管理和营销方面的其他高级职务。另外他还利用风投资金成功创办了一家名叫Moonshoot的在线少儿英语教育机构。

    译者：朴成奎

    Despite my view that the larger risk is a startup failing to execute, how would I analyze these announcements for impacts on specific startup categories? First, I think it's too early to tell, and what I'll be watching for is how Apple's developer terms of service roll out. As we get clearer insight as to what developers can leverage and take advantage of with these new innovations, we'll have a better sense.

    But if I were going to speculate, here's what I'd say. Apple's Passbook app is the one that I think will be the big wrecking ball on several early stage startups in the space of loyalty cards and rewards programs. This space has had a whole host of early stage entrants over the past 24 months it seems. A very small number were gaining strong momentum, with 5Stars (loyalty) and ScoutMob (local merchant discovery) probably the two that I see as the private companies that are farthest along. Again, watch what Apple allows these developers to leverage its technology. I'd say that the air in this crowded space got a whole lot thinner. One or two of the cream of the crop will make it, the rest are really exposed.

    For payments and maps, both fantastically large categories, I'm less concerned about high growth leading startups in this space. Partly, this is due to the very fact that the market sizes of these spaces are so large that smart, innovative startups are going to find spots to innovate and attract customers. Also, at least in early reads of developer notes (I've not studied these deeply), Apple appears to be expressing relatively developer-centric approaches to maps in particular. And I'd caveat that if you're a payments or nav company relying on legacy technology and an outdated business model, then I'd say that's troubling. My perspective here is that Apple won't own these entire categories, as always innovation is required.

    What was missing? The one thing I'd love to hear more about is Apple opening Siri as a platform service. Much was made of the improvements and the doubling down on Siri. This is good, as to date it has seemed as though Siri was a cool demo feature that few actually used very much. Perhaps with the new improvements, more of us will find Siri more indispensable as a service. But despite these announcements, Siri is not yet a platform service that independent developers can take advantage of to extend their apps. I'm sure its hard as Apple would have to constrain tightly what Siri could do in this context. But it does seem a continuing open issue—when will other developers get the chance to build programs to take advantage of Siri? That day will mark the starting point, in my mind, of Siri becoming a mainstream feature.

    The bottom line, though, is that WWDC showed a company at the top of its game, a company that is an aggressive and savvy competitor -- and one that is pushing its ecosystem forward effectively.

    Jay Jamison (@Jay_Jamison), Partner, joined BlueRun Ventures in November 2010 and is based in Menlo Park. He focuses on early stage mobile, consumer and enterprise opportunities. Jay has 12 years of product management and marketing experience in the software and internet industry. Previous experience includes leading Microsoft Japan's Windows Business Group as Senior Director, and other senior level roles at Microsoft in product management and marketing. Jay also successfully founded and led Moonshoot, a venture-backed online English education service for children.