铜价是全球经济的晴雨表，它的走向反映了全球工业冷暖。当中国像打了兴奋剂一样处于飞速增长阶段时，铜就是体壮如牛的宇宙先生。中国咳嗽连连，铜就显露出肺炎的征兆。看到铜价波动和全球性机会，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）计划推出由实物铜担保的一支ETF。

    美国用铜大户Southwire和金属交易对冲基金Red Kite已向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）投诉称，这支基金可能“通过吸纳伦敦金属交易所（London Metal Exchange）三分之一的库存，推升铜价、压缩供应。”他们表示，这对市场的影响堪比住友（Sumimoto）铜交易丑闻。当年，住友的铜交易员滨中泰男（人送绰号“铜先生”）吞下了全球5%的实物铜，人为保持高铜价，使得住友银行（Sumimoto Bank）能获利减持，并对客户的铜交易收取高额佣金。

    投诉称，摩根大通拟建的ETF将“人为提高整体铜价水平”，“对美国和全球经济造成巨大破坏”。监管机构文件显示，这只ETF可持有多达61,000公吨实物铜。

    此案或许不会仅限于SEC层面——美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）可能也想对铜交易进行监管，哪怕只是作为其要求提高预算的一个借口。取决于SEC的裁定和用词，藉此政府或正式表态“投机造成价格波动”。有一点是确定无疑的：ETF需求并非常规的经济需求，而且与营销材料和监管机构接受的定义相反，ETF交易常常造成所依托投资工具的人为失衡。

    ETF根据客户指令进行单位创建或赎回，交易员完全对价格不敏感。一笔购买铜ETF的大单可能造成交易员冲进交易大厅，买下所有能买到的实物铜。这种举动会搅动市场吗？住友的一名交易员仅控制全球5%的铜就足以扰乱十年的市场价格。上述投诉称，摩根大通的新ETF可能累积伦敦金属交易所持30%的铜。它将造成该ETF在美国国内（净进口国）买入铜，打乱市场供应。

    恰巧，《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）最近也注意到了采矿设备制造商Joy Global在业绩公告中预测铜价上涨，因为“当前库存有很大一部分在中国被用于融资抵押”。看来，世界上有不少铜“作为当地交易员和银行的复杂融资交易的一部分，没有进入市场，而是留在了中国的仓库里”。

    The price of copper is a global bellwether, signaling industrial health wherever it trades. When China was in its steroid-induced growth phase, copper was Mr. Universe. Then China coughed and copper caught the mother of all pneumonias. Seeing opportunity in volatility and global range, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) plans to launch an ETF backed by physical copper.

    Southwire, one of the largest copper consumers in the U.S., and metals trader Red Kite have filed a complaint with the SEC, claiming the fund will "inflate prices and squeeze supply by removing as much as a third of the London Metal Exchange's copper stocks." They say the effect on the markets will be comparable to the Sumimoto scandal when metals trader Yasuo Hamanaka (a/k/a "Mr. Copper") sucked up 5% of the world's physical copper and maintained artificially high price levels, enabling Sumimoto Bank to sell its positions profitably while also charging high commissions on customer copper trades.

    The complaint says the proposed ETF will "grossly and artificially inflate prices" and "wreak havoc on the US and global economy." Regulatory filings indicate the ETF could hold as much as 61,000 metric tons of physical copper.

    This may not remain an SEC case – the CFTC may want to oversee copper too, if only as an excuse to ask for a budget increase. Depending on how the Commission rules, and on the language they use, this could point to a formal government determination that speculation causes price volatility. One thing is certain: ETF demand is not normal economic demand and, contrary to the marketing materials and the definition accepted by the regulators, ETF trading often creates artificial imbalances in the underlying instruments.

    ETF units are created or liquidated to meet orders, making traders completely price-insensitive. A large order to buy a copper ETF causes a trader to dash out onto the floor and buy all the physical copper he can. Can this disrupt the markets? A Sumimoto trader's control of just 5% of the world's copper was enough to disrupt pricing in the marketplace for ten years. The complaint calculates the new ETF could stockpile as much as 30% of the copper held on the London Metals Exchange. This would cause the ETF to buy copper within the U.S. – a net importer – disrupting the flow of supply.

    Coincidentally, the Wall Street Journal recently noted an earnings release from mining equipment maker Joy Global (JOY), predicting higher prices for copper because "a substantial portion of the current inventory has been pledged as collateral for financing in China." It appears much of the world's copper is "off-market in Chinese warehouses as part of complex financing deals among local traders and banks."

    ETF市场中也潜藏着其他邪恶的交易员。最近有一笔8亿美元的ETF交易：一家未表明身份的机构赎回了2,000万份SPDR巴克萊资本高收益债ETF（SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF）。据ETF Trends称，这位投资者没有选择变现，而是拿债券，“以货代款赎回”——由此该投资者绕过了公开市场，避开了流动性瓶颈以及大订单执行时不可避免地出现中小交易员搭便车赚些小钱的威胁。一位巴克莱分析师称，“这一做法进一步印证了现货市场流动性依然严峻的事实，一些不那么传统的获取现金流动性的方式已变得更有吸引力。”ETF成为新的第三市场。

    我们可以想到有多种方式，可以将这一交易用作操纵市场的工具。下单机构可以利用这笔交易推高自有头寸的价格，为流动性较差的头寸创造一些流动性，或者仅仅是通过卖空获取小额利润。

    由于摩根大通提议设立的ETF可能吸纳伦敦金属交易所约30%的铜——再加上中国数量不明的持有量——铜已经变成了钱，作为人们交易中所接受票据的抵押实物。美国人不是担心中国控制了太多美国国债吗？那么，太多的全球自然资源呢？太多的世界可耕地（中国在巴西和非洲各地已进行了众多农业投资）？我们应当抵御全球经济入侵，还是继续贱卖资产，把美国一点点卖掉？

    此案的政治影响值得关注。SEC联同CFTC对ETF做出的裁定，将改变整个ETF行业——当然，这也是个烫手山芋。ETF市场拥有超过1,000种投资工具，涉及资产远远超过1万亿美元，而且发行人都是金融业内赫赫有名的公司，包括花旗（Citigroup）、太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）、瑞银（UBS）、摩根大通、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）。如果SEC做出不利裁定，当初监管机构批准这些基金销售的行为是否正当就会引发争议，这可能是朝着政府正式承认“推动大宗市场价格波动的是投机，而不是供需”迈出的第一步。没人指望一个级别不高的政府机构能挑战如此实力强大的行业。

    在这个大选年，现任总统奥巴马愿意放手一试吗？既要敲打华尔街，又想获得华尔街的支持，办得到吗？

    译者：早稻米

    Other sinister players lurk in the ETF markets. There was the recent $800 million ETF trade as an unidentified institution redeemed 20 million shares of SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF. Rather than cash out of the instrument, according to ETF Trends, the investor took the bonds, a "customized in-kind redemption" where the investor bypassed the open market, protecting against liquidity bottlenecks and the ever-present threat of smaller traders looking to pick off small profits while working the large execution. Said one Barclays analyst, "the maneuver adds to the already strong evidence that cash market liquidity remains challenged, as less traditional avenues for accessing cash liquidity have become more attractive." ETFs, the new Third Market.

    We can think of multiple ways in which this trade could have been used to manipulate the markets. The institution placing the ETF order could have used the trade to mark up prices in its own holdings, to create liquidity for its own illiquid positions, or simply to skim small profits on a short sale.

    With the potential for a drain of 30% of the LME's copper for the proposed ETF – plus China's unknown holdings – copper has become money, a physical good held as inaccessible collateral for bits of paper that people accept in trade. Is America worried that China controls too much of our Treasury debt? How about too much of the world's natural resources? How about too much of the world's arable land, with massive farming ventures already established in Brazil and across Africa? Will we push back against global economic encroachment, or will we continue the fire sale as America sells itself off piece by piece?

    The political fallout from this case is worth watching. A joint SEC-CFTC decision against the ETF would change the entire ETF industry – obviously a hot potato. The ETF market has over a thousand vehicles with well over a trillion dollars in assets, and issued by the biggest names in finance, including Citigroup (C), PIMCO, UBS (UBS), JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS). An adverse SEC decision would call into question the regulatory justification for marketing these funds and could be a first step towards an official government position that speculation, not supply and demand, drives price volatility in the commodity markets. One would not expect a lowly government agency to challenge such a powerful sector.

    In an election year, is President Obama willing to bet he can eat Wall Street's cake and still have it?