2011年是“巴菲特百万美元赌局”（The Million-Dollar Buffett Bet）十年之约的第四年，现在，这一年的结果已经出来了。沃伦•巴菲特在这场投资收益的竞赛中赌定，一支标准普尔500指数基金的表现将超过与其打赌的纽约资产管理公司Protégé Partners所选5支对冲基金组合的平均回报率。

    目前的名次（我们很快就将揭晓）不可避免地会让人想起这场十年之赌的第一年，也就是2008年，当时的结果刚出来时巴菲特的反应。

    那一年，双方在市场中都遭遇了重创。但Protégé所选基金（根据赌局约定，这些基金的名称从未公开披露过）平均“仅”下跌了23.9%。而巴菲特选出的Vanguard Admiral基金则下跌了37%.

    巴菲特当时的位置远远落在后面，他在接受《财富》（Fortune）杂志采访时称：“我只希望伊索的预言没错，乌龟最终将战胜野兔。”

    后来，事情的发展确实与龟兔赛跑的情节相似。巴菲特的指数基金“乌龟”在第二年和第三年连续两年胜出，而且（我在这里首次披露）第四年也占据了上风。倒不是说2011年的获胜者有多么了不起：Admiral基金仅涨了2.08%，但那5支“基金中的基金”却平均下跌了1.86%。

    这说明乌龟和野兔在第四年底都已气喘吁吁，根本没什么可值得庆贺的。Protégé仍然略微领先。但其“基金中的基金”四年来平均下跌了5.89%。Admiral基金则跌了6.27%。

    如果我们将这场赌约比作一场棒球比赛，四局后比分仍为0：0的平局，双方都没有得分，只能用力击打，而所有观看比赛的粉丝都兴味索然。

    不过，这场赌局倒是催生了一项不错的投资——完全出乎巴菲特和Protégé的预料。这里补充一点背景信息：当初的想法是为了确保能向获胜者选定的慈善机构提供100万美元的资金。如果巴菲特胜出，这些钱将捐献给奥马哈的慈善机构Girls Inc.；如果Protégé排在首位，受益者将是无保留援助儿童基金会 （Absolute Returns for Kids）。

    为了确保赌约结束时能提供这100万美元，巴菲特和Protégé分别出资约32万美元购买了合计64万美元的零息美国国债，预计到赌约结束时，这笔国债将价值100万美元。这一担保品由旧金山恒金基金会（Long Now Foundation）监管；该基金会管理着很多下注方设立的“长线赌约”。

    Results are in for 2011, the fourth year of the 10-year wager that is sometimes called, rather loosely, The Million-Dollar Buffett Bet. In this competition about investment performance, Warren Buffett is contending that an S&P 500 index fund will outscore the average return of five hedge funds of funds picked by his betting opponent, New York asset management firm Protégé Partners.

    The standings now -- which we will reveal in a minute -- inevitably bring to mind Buffett's reaction after the bet's first year, 2008.

    Both sides were clobbered in that market year from hell. But Protégé's fund-of-funds picks (whose names, by the terms of the bet, have never been publicly disclosed) were down, on the average, by "only" 23.9%. Vanguard's Admiral shares, which are Buffett's entry in the bet, lost a dismal 37%.

    From this way-behind position, Buffett was quoted in Fortune as saying, "I just hope that Aesop was right when he envisioned the tortoise overtaking the hare."

    And that's close to what has since happened. Buffett's index-fund tortoise won the second and third years and -- you are reading it here first -- also prevailed in the fourth. Not that the 2011 winner was much of a star: Admiral shares were up only 2.08%. But the five funds of funds, on the average, were down 1.86%.

    All of which leaves tortoise and hare gasping alongside each other at the end of four years -- and having absolutely nothing to cheer about. Protégé is still a bit ahead. But its funds of funds, on the average, are in the minus column for the period by 5.89%. Admiral shares are down 6.27%.

    If we really mix metaphors and think about this contest as a baseball game, what we have here is a 0-to-0 tie after four innings, with each side doing nothing but striking out and alienating every fan watching.

    The wager, however, has produced one sterling investment over the four years -- and that was made, without brilliance aforethought, by Buffett and Protégé themselves. A little background: The idea was to set terms that would deliver $1 million to a charity chosen by the winner. If Buffett triumphs, the money goes to Girls Inc. of Omaha; if it's Protégé on top, the beneficiary is Absolute Returns for Kids.

    To ensure that $1 million would be there at the end of the bet, Buffett and Protégé each put up roughly $320,000 to buy a zero-coupon Treasury security. The total of about $640,000 was used to purchase a bond that will be worth $1 million at the bet's conclusion. This collateral is being overseen by the Long Now Foundation of San Francisco, which administers "long bets" set up by any competitors wanting to memorialize a gamble.

    在利率下降时代（我们当前自然正处于这样一个时期），零息债券的市场价格会很快接近到期价格——此案即100万美元。最近，巴菲特与Protégé合购的债券已价值约93万美元，这意味着过去四年来，该债券已较买入价涨了45%。虽然这样的回报率比不上投资苹果公司（Apple）的股票，但在股市整体低迷时期，这样的回报已经非常可观。

    参与打赌的双方——巴菲特和Protégé合伙人泰德•塞迪斯都很清楚，在该赌约剩下的近6年时间里，零息债券在当前价格之上的回报将相当有限。债券的到期价值100万美元将是封顶的回报。坐等到期的想法自然没有吸引力，塞迪斯表示：“我们预计年这笔投资的回报率比1%高不了多少。”

    因此，几周前双方开始同恒金基金会协商，打算出售这笔零息债券，所得将另行投资，希望等赌约到期时可向选中慈善机构提供超过100万美元的资金。第一个计划是将所得的一半投资于巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway），另一半投资Protégé管理的一支“基金中的基金”（一直以来，人们都觉得那会是Protégé选择用于打赌的5支基金中的某一支）。但这个计划未获通过，因为它将要求恒金基金会成为那支基金的合作伙伴，由于证券法的种种繁琐规定，恒金基金会并不符合“合格购买人”的定义。

    因此，后来有了第二个计划，并已付诸实施。该计划要求出售上述债券，所得全部投资伯克希尔哈撒韦股票。

    如果情况糟糕，等到2017年12月31日该赌约到期时，现在购入伯克希尔股票的93万美元届时可能达不到100万美元。为此，巴菲特已允诺，恒金基金会可在赌约到期时将这些股票“卖给”他（或他的公司）获得100万美元。换言之，100万美元是慈善机构能获得的最低捐献，投资伯克希尔股票则有望提供更多资金。

    与此同时，乌龟和野兔面对的是2012年的有利市场。迄今看来，等到今年年底，也就是十年之赌赛程中段时，其中一方、甚至双方都有望出现累计正回报——真是峰回路转啊！

    本文作者是《财富》杂志的资深编辑卡罗尔•卢米斯，她是沃伦•巴菲特的老朋友，也是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东之一。并为沃伦•巴菲特致股东公开信担任编辑工作。

    译者：早稻米

    In a period of declining interest rates, which we certainly have had, what happens to a zero-coupon bond is that its market price races toward the maturity value -- $1 million in this case. Recently, the value of the Buffett-Protégé bond was about $930,000, which means that in just over four years it is up 45% from the purchase price. That doesn't match the payoff from Apple (AAPL), but it's a heck of a run during a time when the general stock market was a dog.

    Both Buffett and Ted Seides, the Protégé partner who engineered the 10-year-bet, are well aware that the returns to be earned by the zero-coupon bond from its price today can be no better than meager for the nearly six years left in the bet. That's because the ceiling is the bond's maturity value of $1 million. The view is definitely unappealing, says Seides: "We're looking at annual returns that won't be much better than 1%."

    So the two sides began a few weeks ago to talk to the Long Now Foundation about its selling the zero-coupon bond and putting the proceeds into an investment that putatively could deliver the winning charity more than $1 million when the bet winds up. The first plan discussed was for half of the proceeds to be invested in Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), and the other half to be invested in a fund of funds that Protégé runs (and that has always been assumed to be one of the five funds of funds that Protégé picked for the bet). But that plan died because it would have required Long Now to become a partner in the fund and, for complex reasons arising from the securities laws, it did not meet the definition of a "qualified purchaser."

    So a second plan was devised and is now going forward. It calls for the bond to be sold and the total proceeds to be invested in Berkshire Hathaway stock.

    Naturally, some set of dire circumstances could make the roughly $930,000 put into Berkshire worth less than $1 million at the bet's conclusion on December 31, 2017. So Buffett has guaranteed $1 million by giving Long Now the right at the bet's conclusion to "put" the stock to him (or his estate) in exchange for that amount. In other words, $1 million becomes the floor for the winning charity, with the Berkshire investment establishing the prospect for more.

    Meanwhile, the tortoise and the hare are dealing with the good market of 2012, which so far is suggesting that one or both might show -- how radical! -- a cumulative profit when the halfway mark in the bet is reached at the end of this year.

    FORTUNE senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, who wrote this article, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's, a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, and editor of his annual letter to shareholders.