眼下，雅典街道上满是骚乱闹事者，宏伟的大楼和星巴克（Starbucks）燃起滚滚浓烟。这一切动荡掩盖了一场几十年来从来没有任何国家没有尝试过的大范围市场解放运动。在国际货币基金组织（IMF）、欧盟（EU）和欧洲央行（European Central Bank）的三方小组（troika）重压下，希腊新一届帕帕季莫斯政府正在竭力推动这场改革。希腊必须迅速实施一系列的历史性改革，才能获取三方小组的最新拨付的1,700亿美元资金，避免3月中旬下一批债券到期时可能引发的灾难性违约。

    但改革的意义并不仅限于避免破产。如果希腊希望经济再度开始增长，重现繁荣，这些改革措施同样必不可少。目前，希腊工资猛涨，市场高度封闭、垄断盛行、竞争低下，在这样的条件下，不改革不可能这样的目标。

    希腊的主要问题是，多年来它的商品和服务（房地产、理发、保险）一直依赖内销的增长，无国际竞争之虞。2001-2008年希腊享受消费信贷繁荣之时，这一模式看起来似乎可以奏效。但内需的爆炸式增长意味着工资飙升，导致希腊出口商品在国际市场上定价过高。同时，希腊国产的家用电器和电子产品也无法与价格更便宜的德国或荷兰商品竞争。另外，希腊也没有采取措施，全面改革旅游业和货车运输业存在的垄断行为，导致出口进一步受阻。

    希腊是欧元区成员国，无法通过本币贬值来恢复竞争力，提振出口。为重现经济增长，希腊需要痛下决心，放开市场，大幅下调工资，同时提高生产率。

    这项艰巨的任务可能会产生不可预知的政治后果。不过，过去几个月里希腊已经批准或承诺即将批准的改革措施数量之多、涉及范围之广，确实让人印象深刻。

    下面让我们来看看可能彻底改变希腊经济的五项改革：

游轮业

    希腊如珍珠般散落的大小岛屿以及众多古代遗迹使旅游业成为了这个国家的第一大产业，占到GDP的15%。希腊应该是全球豪华邮轮最热门的目的地之一。但希腊的相关法律限制重重，导致Carnival、Princess等外国游轮公司长期以来对希腊望而却步。

    几十年来，希腊法律规定所有外国游轮运营商都必须要在船员中招聘很高比例的希腊海员，才能将希腊港口设为其航线的起点或终点。这个条款同样也适用于法国、西班牙和其他欧盟成员国的游轮运营商，因此，欧盟此前居然没有对这个高度违反竞争精神的规定发难，实在非同寻常。由于这个原因，全球大批游轮航班公司纷纷将土耳其或以色列作为母港。游客们飞至伊斯坦布尔或海法，而不是雅典，给当地的酒店和零售业带来了滚滚财源。

    2010年，根据三方小组的要求，希腊政府曾经通过了一项新的法律，承诺改革，但最终并未付诸实施。改革方案最终取消了对欧洲游轮运营商的招聘希腊海员要求，但对美国、加拿大及所有其他非欧盟公司加征高额税款（税款纳入海员退休基金），同时要求这些公司签署一份为期三年的合同，承诺到访希腊港口。

    The searing images from Athens -- the streets choked with rioters, stately buildings and Starbucks' ablaze -- are masking a drive to liberate markets that's unlike anything any nation has attempted to do in decades. The platform is being pushed hard by the new Papademos administration, under intense pressure from the "troika," the IMF, EU and European Central Bank. Greece will need to rapidly enact the historic list of reforms to obtain the latest grant of $170 billion from the troika, and avoid a disastrous default when its next wave of bonds come due in mid-March.

    These reforms aren't just necessary to prevent bankruptcy. They're absolutely essential if Greece is to once again grow and prosper, conditions that are impossible with its current inflated level of wages and highly restricted, cartelized, uncompetitive markets.

    Greece's principal problem is that it's been depending for years on selling more and more home-grown goods and services that don't face international competition -- houses, haircuts, insurance policies -- to its own people. That model appeared to work when Greeks experienced a consumer credit boom from 2001 to 2008. But the explosion in domestic demand meant that wages soared, making Greece's exports too pricey on international markets. At the same time, its domestically produced appliances and electronics couldn't compete with cheaper imports from Germany or the Netherlands. Greece also did nothing to overhaul the monopolistic practices in tourism and trucking that further curbed exports.

    As a member of the eurozone, Greece can't devalue its currency to restore its competitiveness and boost exports. To grow again, Greece needs to both lower wages dramatically and enhance productivity by de-regulating markets at a wrenching pace.

    It's a grinding, politically treacherous task. Still, the number and scope of reforms that Greece has either passed, or promises to pass, in the last few months is indeed impressive.

    Let's examine five new measures that would totally transform the Greek economy.

The cruise industry

    Its island jewels and wonders from antiquity make tourism Greece's number one industry, accounting for 15% of GDP. Greece should be one of the world's foremost destinations for cruise ships. But highly restrictive laws have long discouraged foreign tour operators such as Carnival and Princess from visiting Greece.

    For decades, the law required that all foreign operators needed to hire a high percentage of Greek sailors on their crews in order to start or end a trip at a Greek port. It's remarkable that the EU didn't attack this highly anti-competitive provision, since it also applied to French, Spanish and all other players in the European Community. As a result, the world's cruise lines used Turkey or Israel as home ports. Tourists flew to Istanbul or Haifa instead of Athens, and rewarded their hotels and vendors.

    In 2010, under orders from the troika, the Greek government enacted a new law that promised reform, but failed to deliver in practice. The measure finally lifted the requirement for hiring Greek sailors for EU carriers, but imposed a stiff tax on U.S., Canadian and all other non-EU companies to benefit the sailors' retirement fund. It also required cruise lines to sign a three-year contract guaranteeing visits to Greek ports.

    没有哪怕一家游轮公司根据这项新的法律进入希腊市场。如今，希腊新政府已承诺将批准一项新的措施，同时取消对非欧盟运营商的征税和合同要求。目前该法案还在等待希腊国会审议。“这项新的法案必将使比雷埃夫斯等希腊港口成为吸引大型游轮运营商的重要目的地，”希腊国际商会（International Chamber of Commerce in Greece）负责人尼克斯•维尼克斯表示。这项法案值得关注，因为它的通过将是改革的一个重要征兆。

卡车运输业

    希腊贵得离谱的陆路运输费用已成为束缚希腊国内制造业和商品出口的沉重枷锁。要经营一个卡车车队，公司必须要为每部车获取牌照，而20世纪70年代以来，政府再也没有发放过新的牌照。“四十年来，希腊的国际贸易量增长了两倍，而卡车数量却一点都没变，”希腊著名的经济学家米兰达•扎法表示。因此，卡车严重短缺，制造商们必须要支付高价才能将商品运往国内外。卡车牌照允许转让，但价格不菲，因此拍照转手时，持有者自然会开出高价，以期收回当初的重金投资。

    由于国内运费太贵，希腊人转而从比利时购买花椰菜。如果要运送同样的一屋子家具，请比利时卡车运输公司从布鲁塞尔运至雅典所需的费用可能还要低于从雅典一个仓库运至几英里外新住所所需的费用。如果从雅典运输电子产品至塞萨洛尼基，卡车只能空车返回，不得装运新的货物。

    2010年，希腊国会通过了一项法律，授权政府以低价发放新的牌照。但这项改革推迟了三年，引发了人们对改革到底是否会落实的疑虑。令人不由得想起当初的游轮“改革”。今年年初，希腊国会取消了过渡期，1月底全面放开了卡车运输市场。除非希腊倒退，从橄榄油到家用电器等所有的希腊出口商品在国际市场上的价格都将大大降低，希腊国内的蔬菜和其他农产品也将得以进入新的国内市场。

医药业

    几十年来，希腊经济一直充斥着价格管制，这不仅损害了消费者利益，也让那些被细心呵护的产业丧失了提高生产率的一切动力。一个典型的例子就是医药业。希腊政府确保药店在所有药品上加价35%。因此，一个月剂量、售价200美元的心脏病专利药零售价加价高达70美元。“过度诊断的动力很强，”扎法说。“这也解释了为什么希腊人的人均用药量排在欧盟首位。”

    根据新的法律，药店对平价药加价不得超过15%，高价药的加价比率则更低。平均加价幅度应从过去的35%降到不到15%。消费者赢得了重大胜利。

    Not a single cruise line entered the market under that law. But now, the new government has pledged to enact a measure that removes both the tax and the contract requirement for non-EU carriers. It's now on the docket for the current parliament. "The new law promises to make ports such as Piraeus a major attraction for the big cruise operators," says Nicos Vernicos, head of the International Chamber of Commerce in Greece. Watch this law closely: Its passage would be a crucial bellwether for reform.

The trucking industry

    The shockingly high cost of road transport is socking both Greek exports and domestic production. To operate a trucking fleet, companies need a license for each truck, and no new ones have been granted since the 1970s. "In 40 years, Greece's international trade has tripled, and the number of trucks is frozen," says Miranda Xafa, a leading Greek economist. As a result, trucks are in short supply, so manufacturers need to pay inflated prices to move merchandise within Greece, or to foreign markets. The licenses do get sold, but only at huge prices, once again ensuring that truckers will charge a king's ransom recoup their heavy investment.

    Greeks buy cauliflower from Belgium because it's so expensive to transport inside within their own borders. It costs less to move an apartment full of furniture from Brussels to Athens with a Belgian trucker than to ship the same furniture from an Athens warehouse to the new lodging a few miles away. Trucks transporting electronics from Athens to Thessaloniki were barred from returning with a new load.

    In 2010, the parliament passed a law enabling the government to issue new licenses at minimal cost. But the reform was delayed for three years -- reminiscent of the attempt at first cruise ship "reform" -- leading to questions over whether it would really happen. Early this year, the parliament eliminated the transition period, and fully opened the trucking market as of January. Unless Greece retreats, its shipment of everything from olive oil to appliances will cost far less to foreign buyers, and its vegetables and other produce will reach new markets across Greece.

Pharmaceuticals

    For several decades, the Greek economy has been rife with price controls that hammered consumers, and removed all incentive for the coddled industries to improve productivity. A notable example is pharmaceuticals. The government guaranteed pharmacies a 35% markup on all drugs. So a patented, $200 a month heart medicine got $70 tacked onto the retail price. "The incentive to over-prescribe was immense," says Xafa. "It explains why Greece has the highest level of pharmaceutical consumption per capita in the EU."

    Under a new law, pharmacies are limited to imposing a margin of 15% on inexpensive drugs, and far less on expensive therapies. On average, the markups should fall from the old 35% to well under 15% on average, a major victory for consumers.

度假物业的开发

    对于喜欢希腊的人们来说，有件事很奇怪，为什么希腊岛屿的宁静生活不像西班牙或葡萄牙那样吸引退休老人。照理说，希腊应成为欧洲的佛罗里达。根源还是在于希腊僵化的法律，因为它抑制了市场。希腊城市以外的地区没有分区规划法律。但这并不意味着可以在岛上或农村地区随意盖房。正相反，开发受到严格地限制。只有一部涉及总体规划开发的法律，规定别墅和住所必须建在大型酒店的周围。

    这部法律同时还禁止开发商出售住所及别墅，只允许租赁。另外，法律事实上紧致高尔夫球场这类开发。希腊全国只有6个高尔夫球场，简单难以相信。

    一项新的法律做出了两点改进。第一，要求提供的环境影响报告从2项减少至1项，基本上将审批时间缩短了一半，从两年降至一年出头。第二，允许开发商将度假物业中的大量公寓和住房用于出售，不再是只能租赁。仅这一项变化就会让希腊成为退休者的首选目的地。

    但单这项法律可能还远远不够。开发商正在推动进行更多的改革。国际豪华度假村开发商Dolphin Capital在希腊拥有多个项目，其管理合伙人弥尔图斯•坎博莱兹称：“应该修改法律，允许高尔夫球场、游艇船坞等项目的开发与酒店建设脱钩，”如果继续打破行业坚冰，整个市场将释放出巨大的潜力。

劳动力市场

    本月通过的劳动方案是所有改革措施中最重要的一项。过去抑制希腊竞争力的最严重因素正是多级的工资设定体系。直到最近，希腊政府和工会还商定了新的年度“最低工资”，规定最低工资必须上调5%。

    事实上，这不只是适用于拿最低工资的劳动者，也是所有行业员工（不论工资高低）的工资涨幅下限。然后，第二轮谈判按行业展开，而5%的全国性协议是涨幅的下限。因此，百货行业的员工可能会在这个基础上再获2%的加薪。然后，才是每家公司与工会谈判。这些公司层面的协议往往还会再加上几个点的涨幅。因此，在经济不错的2000-20008年，每年的工资涨幅很容易就会达到9-10%。

    这个三级体系确保了劳动者的工资涨幅高于通胀率，也导致希腊商品价格年复一年地超过了控制工资涨幅的德国所生产的同类商品。如果有一个因素要对欧元区的灾难负责，那就是僵化的工资政策，不仅是希腊，也包括与其高度类似的意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙。

Resort development

    To lovers of Greece, it's a mystery why this island idyll isn't a retirement destination on the scale of Spain or Portugal. By rights, Greece should be the Florida of Europe. Once again, it's rigid laws that suffocate the market. In Greece, areas outside of cities do not have zoning laws. That doesn't mean you can build freely on islands or in rural areas. On the contrary, development is severely restricted. Only a single law allows for master plan development, and it requires that the villas and homes be constructed around a major hotel.

    The law also prevents the developer from selling homes or villas; only rentals are allowed. For example, golf course developments are effectively barred. Incredibly, the entire country offers only a half-a-dozen courses.

    A new law provides two improvements. First, it reduces the requirement of two environmental impact statements to just one, virtually cutting the approval time in half, from two years to a bit over twelve months. Second, it now allows developers to sell many of the apartments and homes in their resorts, instead of merely renting them out. That change alone could make Greece a prime destination for retirees.

    But the measure still doesn't go far enough. Developers are pushing for more reforms. "The laws should change to allow development around golf courses and marinas without necessarily building more hotels," says Miltos Kambourides, managing partner of Dolphin Capital, an international luxury resort developer with several projects in Greece. If the thaw continues, it will stir an industry with giant potential.

The labor market

    The labor measures enacted this month are the most important reforms of all. In the past, nothing hampered Greece's competitiveness more severely than its multi-tiered system for setting wages. Until recently, the government and the unions negotiated a new "minimum wage" annually, mandating that the lowest-paid employees get a raise of, say, 5%.

    In practice, the deal didn't apply to just the bottom level. It set a floor on wages for workers in all industries, up and down the pay scale. Then, a second round of negotiations would occur for each industry, with the 5% national agreement as a minimum raise. So the department store employees might get an extra 2%. Only then would the individual companies engage their unions. Those company-wide agreements would add another couple of points. So raises in the prosperous 2000 to 2008 years could easily come to 9% or 10% annually.

    The three-level system guaranteed that pay rose faster than inflation. That caused Greek goods to become more overpriced, year after year, than competing products from Germany, which held wages in check. If one factor is responsible for the disaster in the eurozone, it's the rigid wage policies not just in Greece, but the extremely similar systems in Italy, Spain and Portugal.

    当前，希腊的失业率已高达21%。过高的工资已迫使许多公司给员工发现金工资，不走账面，以逃避社保税。让人难以相信的是，即便如此，希腊本来还计划于7月份将全国范围内的工资再次上调2.5%。本月，希腊政府终于做出了迄今为止最果断的决定，取消了这次涨薪计划，批准将大多数工人的最低工资下调22%，24岁以下员工的最低工资下调32%。

    这一调整应该会对各个级别的工资产生向下的连带效应。“希腊终于打破了（工资的）螺旋上升趋势，”Alpha Bank驻雅典的经济学家迈克•马索拉基斯表示。“它应该能大幅提高劳动力市场的效率。”事实上，新的法律严格限定员工们在公司层面进行工资协商，而不是在公司还没有和员工协商时，一开始就设定大幅的工资上调。问题是：新机制的有效期仅为三年。2015年希腊可能恢复旧机制，这样的前景降低了这一改革的历史意义。

    总而言之，这些改革遭到了民众的普遍地址，希腊显然是迫于外界的重压，才开始实行改革。它原本有可能不愿继续承受留在欧元区内的痛苦，真的会选择退出欧元的道路。但在挣扎了两年后，它终于采取了正确的行动。然而，希腊的悲剧在于，一切可能已经为时过晚。

    译者：zdm

    Today, unemployment in Greece stands at 21%. Wages are still so high that many employers pay workers cash, off the books, to avoid social security taxes. Incredibly, a raise of 2.5% was scheduled for July at the national level. But this month, in its most decisive move to date, the government dismantled the pay elevator. It passed a 22% decrease in the minimum wage for most workers, and a 32% drop from employees under the age of 24.

    The change should produce a reverse ripple effect lowering salaries at all levels. "Greece is finally breaking the spiral," says Michael Massourakis, an economist at Alpha Bank in Athens. "This could make labor markets far more efficient." In effect, the new law allows employers to negotiate strictly at the company level, instead of starting with a big, mandated wage increase before they even start talking to their own workers. The rub: The new system applies for three years. The possibility that Greece will return to the old system in 2015 dampens the significance of this historic reform.

    In conclusion, it's clear that Greece is only embracing these widely reviled reforms under intense pressure. It may indeed choose the route of exiting the euro over the pain of staying the course. But after two years of fiddling, it's finally making the right moves. The Greek tragedy is that it may be too late.