上周，苹果公司（Apple）公布了最新季报，最令人惊讶的并不是它的业绩再度远超华尔街预期。这家公司如日中天，几乎就被认定了肯定会超预期——唯一的问题是超出幅度是多少。相比之下，更令人瞠目的是这家公司的账簿上居然有高达976亿美元的现金和可售证券。近几年来，我们已经看到了不少报道称美国公司资产负债表上的闲置资金正在不断累积，但这次的情况完全不同。当然，苹果公司的股东们这些年来确实没有多少可以抱怨的——过去五年该股涨了424%，同期标准普尔500指数（S&P500）却下跌了7.4%。但拜托，苹果公司。如果你想不出怎么花这些钱，还是把它还给其真正的主人吧，你又不是对冲基金。

    别忘了，并不是只有苹果公司看上去不知该如何使用近年来积攒下来的大笔现金。高盛（Goldman Sachs）1月24日发布的报告显示，过去四年，高盛跟踪的非金融公司手头现金总额增加了55%，现金/企业价值比率从6%上升到了10%。很多现金都待在海外账户中，因为这些公司都在耐心地等待，希望终有一天美国国会将批准减免对海外收益的征税。（祝他们好运吧！）

    好消息是，高盛认为，一个对“股东更友好”的时代已经来临，由于高管们不敢在充满变数的经济环境中贸然投资，他们终于要开始派发公司坐拥的大堆现金了。仅2012年一年，高盛跟踪的这些公司看来已准备将多达37%的现金用于派息和股票回购，比2002-2010年间的平均水平高出约5个百分点。

    所有这些意味着如果你知道如何选股，就有机会赚上一笔。

    股票回购。2011年，美国上市公司的董事会共核准了约5,300亿美元的股票回购，比2011年高出了45%，是2009年低点的6倍。虽然高盛承认，回购并不总是个股走势强于大盘的可靠指标，2009年3月以来有新回购计划的股票在宣布回购前后，股价走势确实强于标准普尔指数。而且，我们说的这些计划可不是小数目：2011年，华特迪士尼（Walt Disney）宣布了160亿美元的回购计划，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）是150亿美元，沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）也是150亿美元。高盛还列出了几家可能很快会宣布或扩大回购计划的公司，包括eBay、辉瑞（Pfizer）和高通（Qualcomm），以及还有大部分回购计划尚未完成的公司，如维亚康姆（Viacom）、Saks百货公司、Abercrombie & Fitch服饰公司和IAC/InterActive Corp媒体公司。

    下面是我看好的公司名单。既然回购计划看来有望支撑公司股价，股民或许可以考虑出售这些公司的看跌期权，落袋为安。因为如果未来股价不下跌，期权价格就会下跌，等到期权到期时，你能拿到的钱少得可怜，什么也干不了。不能说万无一失，但如果公司方面没有什么特别糟糕的利空，如果大盘没有暴跌，这差不多就像是天上掉馅饼。几家候选公司是：有线电视公司Cablevision、哈里伯顿（Halliburton）和美国鹰牌服饰公司（American Eagle Outfitters）。

    When Apple announced its latest quarterly earnings last week, the most amazing thing wasn't that it once again blew away Wall Street's expectations. This company is on a roll of unprecedented proportions, and it's almost assumed that it will exceed expectations -- the only question is by how much. What was far more profound was the revelation of the hoard of $97.6 billion in cash and marketable securities on the company's books. We've been reading for a few years now about corporate America's growing pile of idle balance sheet cash, but this is something else entirely. Apple shareholders don't really have much to complain about these days -- the stock is up 424% over the past five years, compared to a 7.4% decline in the S&P500. But come on, Cupertino. If you can't think of ways to use the money, give it back to its rightful owners. You're not a hedge fund.

    Apple (AAPL), mind you, is not alone in its seeming inability to put the cash it has generated of late to work. According to a January 24 report from Goldman Sachs (GS), non-financial companies the investment bank follows have seen gross cash balances rise by 55% over the past four years, and the ratio of total cash to enterprise value rise from 6% to 10%. Much of that sits in overseas accounts as companies patiently hope for a day when Congress agrees to pass a tax holiday on foreign income. (Good luck with that.)

    But here's the good news: Goldman thinks a more "shareholder friendly" moment is upon us, and that corporate executives are finally going to start doling out the money pile they've been sitting on due to their abject fear of investing in an uncertain economic climate. Companies they follow seem ready to direct a whopping 37% of their cash to dividends and share buybacks alone in the coming year, roughly 500 basis points higher than the average from 2002 to 2010.

    All of this means there's some good money to be made if you know how to pick your spots.

    Stock buybacks. In 2011, some $530 billion of buybacks were authorized by corporate boards, 45% higher than in 2010, and a five-fold increase from the 2009 low. While Goldman admits that buybacks are not always a reliable indicator of stock outperformance, since March 2009, stocks with new repurchase agreements have outperformed the S&P around the announcement of the buybacks. And we're not talking about small numbers, either: In 2011, Walt Disney (DIS) announced a $16 billion buyback, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) a $15 billion one, and Wal-Mart (WMT) another $15 billion. Goldman identifies a handful of companies they think might soon announce or expand repurchase programs, including eBay (EBAY), Pfizer (PFE), and Qualcomm (QCOM). They add another list of companies with big chunks of buybacks yet to be completed, including Viacom (VIA), Saks (SKS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and IAC/InterActive Corp (IACI).

    Here's my favorite list, though. They compiled a list of companies for which you might consider selling put options because a buyback looks likely to support the company's shares. You pocket the price of the option, and provided the stock doesn't fall and is "put" back to you, you walk away at the option's expiry with a few bucks for pretty much doing nothing at all. No guarantees here, folks, but this is as close to a free lunch as you can get, barring some disastrous news out of a company or a collapse in the overall stock market. A few candidates: Cablevision, Halliburton, and American Eagle Outfitters.

    当然，灾难有可能发生，也的确会发生。众所周知，网络视频租赁公司Netflix在公司股价居高不下之时，投了10多亿美元用于股票回购，令公司在去年秋季陷入窘境，现金几近用罄的Netflix不得不施行了每股70美元的摊薄性融资。即便情况没那么糟糕，也不能确保在市场大幅震荡之时股票回购仍能支撑股价。高盛指出，股票回购的长期效应至多也只是好坏不一。

    股息。虽然高盛的研究没有指出，股息将有类似的大幅增长，但高盛分析师们确实预计返还给股东的现金水平将稳步增长——2011年有约14%的资本用于派息——与2002-2010年间的均值持平，高于2006-2008年间12%的水平。当时公司仍认为相比把现金返还给股东，他们能有更好的用途。问题是：如今固定收益投资的收益率仍低得可怜——10年期美国国债为2.04%，1年期只有区区0.11%。为自己找一只高派息股，就能占据先机。高盛列出了很多股息收益率具有吸引力且股息历史增长率较高的公司，包括辉瑞（再次出现！）、通用电气（General Electric）、可口可乐（Coca-Cola）和波音公司（Boeing）。有些股息收益率更高的股票可能风险略高一些，包括Och-Ziff Capital Management资产管理公司（股息收益率10.7%！）、通信公司威力众（Verizon，5.2%）和杜科能源（Duke Energy）（4.7%）。

    并购。现金收购的步伐似乎也在加快。市场研究机构Capital IQ的数据显示，过去12个月有很多美国大公司都打开了钱袋，进行大宗并购，包括米高梅集团（MGM Resorts，支付现金4.07亿美元）、Liberty Interactive传媒公司（1.85亿美元）、Allscripts Healthcare保健公司（1.215亿美元）和福特汽车（Ford Motor Company）（9,400万美元）。不是每个首席执行官都愿意承担这样的风险，换言之，还是有很多钱没花出去。

    那么，实体投资呢？如今这有更时髦的政治辞令“创造就业”。近期接受《财富》杂志（Fortune）采访的公司高管中只有不到一半的人表示，2012年预计将扩大员工招聘。2011年企业有38%的现金用于资本支出，仍低于39%的长期均值，甚至也低于2009年的42%。麦肯锡公司（McKinsey & Company）2011年9月的一项研究指出，虽然很多高管感觉公司对业务投资不足，但各行各业都在越来越多地回避可能的损失——在他们眼里，潜在损失比潜在收益更重。换言之，他们就是没有胆量做出大胆的决定。因此，他们可能会开始把现金返还给股东。

    因此，消息面是积极的，虽然利好也许有限。看来漫长的现金储藏期终于有望结束。如果公司想不出怎么投资或并购，他们就会把钱返还给股东。现在，需要有什么人让苹果公司的人知道在这个问题上（虽然这种情况很少见），他们并不比其他公司好多少，和其他公司也并没有什么不同。这些钱不是他们的，是股东们的。如果这些钱他们没有用，就该还给股东。

    Of course, disasters can—and do—happen. Netflix (NFLX) famously spent over $1 billion on share repurchases when its stock was flying high, leaving the company in a jam last fall that necessitated a dilutive financing at $70 a share because it had nearly run out of cash. Even in more benign circumstances, there's no guarantee that a buyback will offer any share price support in a volatile market. To its credit, Goldman points out that the long-term effect of buybacks on stock prices is mixed at best.

    Dividends. While Goldman's research doesn't point to a similar surge in dividends, its analysts do see a steady level of cash being returned to shareholders by such a route—some 14% of capital allocations in 2011—equal to the average from 2002 to 2010, and above the 12% levels of 2006 to 2008, when companies still thought they had better uses for their cash than just giving it back to shareholders. And here's the thing: fixed income investments remain at pathetic yields these days -- 2.04% for 10-year Treasuries or a paltry 0.11% for one-year notes. Find yourself a nice dividend-paying stock, and you're ahead of the game already. Goldman identifies a number of companies with both attractive yields plus historical dividend growth. They include Pfizer (again!), General Electric, Coca-Cola, and Boeing. Some higher-yielding stocks that might be a bit riskier include Och-Ziff Capital Management (a 10.7% yield!), Verizon (5.2%), and Duke Energy (4.7%).

    Mergers and acquisitions. The pace of cash acquisitions seems to be picking up as well. According to Capital IQ, a number of major U.S. companies opened their wallets for major M&A moves over the last 12 months, including MGM Resorts ($407 million in cash spent), Liberty Interactive ($185 million), Allscripts Healthcare ($121.5 million) and Ford Motor Company ($94 million). Not every CEO is trigger-shy, in other words, and there is big money out there waiting to be put to use.

    And what of actual corporate investment—now known by its trendy political moniker, "job creation?" Fewer than half of executives polled recently by Fortune said they expect to increase their headcount in 2012. Companies allocated 38% of their cash use on capital expenditures in 2011, which is still below the long-term average of 39% and even below 2009 levels of 42%. A September 2011 study by McKinsey & Company pointed out that while large numbers of executives felt their companies were underinvesting in their business, a rise in loss aversion—weighing potential losses significantly more than equivalent gains—has taken hold across all manner of industries. In other words, they're suffering from an inability to make bold decisions. So they might as well start giving it back to shareholders.

    So the news is positive, if only on the margins. And it seems as if the long night of cash hoarding might finally be coming to a close. If companies can't figure out how to invest their money or spend it on M&A, they're going to give it back to their shareholders. Now someone just needs to let the people at Apple know that in this one rare instance, they are not better or different than everyone around them. It's not their money—it's their shareholders'. If they've got no use for it, give it back.