近三个月来每周的财经报纸新闻标题都是欧元区正处于灾难的边缘。迄今为止，这场危机中倒下的牺牲品已经囊括了意大利总理、希腊总统、法比银行Dexia和最近的美国证券经纪公司明富环球金融（MF Global）。虽然上周有多国央行联手释放流动性，但一些分析师仍认为欧元难逃消亡命运。标准普尔（Standard and Poor's）将欧元区15国列入负面观察名单，更是雪上加霜。

    整场危机中最令人意外的是危机并没有导致欧元对美元和英镑的汇率大幅下跌；美国和英国是欧元区最紧密的伙伴国。11月21日，瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）的研究报告称，就我们目前掌握的情况来看，欧元“已经来日无多”。但是，目前欧元兑美元汇率为1.34美元，同2007年的水平大致相当，离今年年初的水平也不远。

    对于欧元的相对坚挺，有多种解释。最显而易见的是缺乏好的替代性选择。美国利率接近零，使得美元投资无利可图，因此，大型退休基金和其他必须分散投资的储备基金不能将所有的资产置于美元投资。而且，美国和英国政府也有各自的债务问题，导致投资者保持了适度的谨慎。

    与此同时，瑞士和日本政府入市干预瑞郎和日元上涨的行动也使得这两种货币退出了这场交易游戏。一位外汇交易员称：“目前，欧元区仍然是投资者能够获取收益的一个主权债务市场，这些投资推高了欧元。”

    另一种理论是，投资者只是将大部分欧元投资转移到该地区财政状况良好的国家，如德国和荷兰，还未将大量资金从欧元转出。上周，由于有传言称欧元即将崩解，惊恐的投资者将资金投到他们认为最安全的避风港，德国一年期债券收益率有史以来首现负值。

    中国对欧元汇率保持相对坚挺也起了一定作用。美元在中国外汇储备中的占比一直很高，为降低畸高的美元敞口风险，一段时间以来中国一直在努力将这些投资转换为有机会染指的任何其他资产。渣打银行（Standard Chartered）的研究显示，2011年以来中国一直在努力将新增的外汇储备从美元转换为欧元。

    Every week for the past three months, headlines in financial newspapers have announced that the eurozone is on the brink of disaster. The casualties, thus far, include the leaders of Italy and Greece; Dexia, the French-Belgian bank, and most recently MF Global, the American brokerage. Despite last week's coordinated actions by central banks to free up transatlantic capital, some analysts still forecast a calamitous outcome. Standard and Poor's move to put 15 eurozone countries on notice for a possible debt downgrade doesn't help.

    Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the crisis is the fact that it has not prompted the euro, the currency that holds the continent together, to fall significantly against the U.S. dollar and British pound, its closest international counterparts. On November 21, research from Credit Suisse said that the euro is entering "its last days as we currently know it." Yet the euro currently trades at $1.34 against the dollar, which is roughly where it was trading in 2007, and not far off from where it was at the beginning of this year.

    There are several explanations for this resilience. The most obvious is a lack of good alternatives to the euro. Near-zero interest rates in the U.S. make dollar investments unprofitable, so large pension funds and other reserve funds that must diversify their portfolio can't put all their assets in dollar-denominated investments. The American and British governments have their own debt problems, too, and this has kept investors duly wary.

    Meanwhile, interventions by the Swiss and Japanese governments to prevent the franc and yen from rising have taken those respective currencies out of the trading game. "The eurozone is one part of the sovereign debt market where investors can still get yield," says one FX trader, "and these investments are propping up the currency."

    Another theory is that investors are merely shifting most euro investments to the region's fiscally healthiest countries, like Germany and the Netherlands, but haven't on balance moved much money out of the euro. Last week, German one-year bond yields turned negative for the first time on record, as panicked investors put their money in what they perceived as the safest haven, amid rumors that the euro was about the unravel.

    China may also be playing a part in the resilience of the euro. Concerned about its disproportionate dollar holdings, Beijing for some time has tried to diversify into whatever other asset classes it can get its hands on. Research from Standard Chartered says that during 2011, China has been attempting to shift its accumulation of new foreign currency reserves from dollars to euros.

    过去一年帮助推高欧元的最后一个因素是市场盲目相信欧洲政界不会愚蠢到任由欧元崩溃。虽然过去一个月这方面的信心显著下降——最近10年期比利时、法国和德国债券的拍卖遇冷——但上周股市的反弹表明很多人仍相信，一切都会好起来。所有的眼睛都盯着本周五的欧盟峰会，分析人士正，这可能是挽救欧元的最佳机会，同时也是最后的机会之一。

欧元的出路在哪里

    身处风暴之中是很难看清方向的，但有一件事是肯定的：一谈到欧元区，所有人都立刻变得悲观。极端悲观者认为，欧元区的结构性和政治性问题大到难以解决，欧元将在今后几周内骤然瓦解。稍乐观一些的认为，经过几年经济衰退后，意大利、西班牙和希腊将退出欧元区，留下经济实力较强的几个国家。最乐观的则希望欧洲央行（European Central Bank）能挺身而出，购买西班牙和意大利的坏账，便于政界协商条约和修改法规，实现在德国牵头下欧洲在财政上和理念上更紧密地结合。

    在某种方式上，更紧密的财政联盟意味着欧元完成了一个轮回：从最初的政治联盟，到定义较窄的货币联盟，再回到政治联盟。这样的前景会让地区内的小国感到紧张，它们担心主权会受到侵害。但如果该地区要保住共同货币，现在需要的可能正是这样的举措。

    欧元的近期走势可能取决于欧洲央行领导人宣布的行动意愿到底有多坚决。交易员们表示，强硬的表态将使欧元汇率维持在5年交易区间内，而空洞的陈词滥调则会把它推上火山口。

    A final factor that may have helped prop up the euro over the past year is a measure of blind confidence that European politicians won't be stupid enough to let the euro fail. Though the past month marked a significant erosion of confidence on this front -- investors recently turned the other way at auctions of ten-year Belgian, French, and German bonds -- last week's equity rally suggests that many people still think that all will end well. All eyes are on Friday's EU summit, which analysts say could be one of the last, best opportunities to save the euro.

What's next for the euro

    It's hard to have perspective in the midst of a storm, but one thing is for certain: everyone is a bear right now when it comes to the eurozone. The die-hard bears believe that the eurozone's structural and political problems are too big to solve and that the euro will suddenly dissolve in the next few weeks. Less dramatic bears think that after a few recessionary years, Italy, Spain, and Greece will exit the euro, leaving the stronger countries bound together. The more optimistic bears hope that the European Central Bank will step up and buy up bad debt from Spain and Italy, which will allow politicians to negotiate their treaties and change statutes to bring Europe fiscally and thus ideologically closer together, with Germany at the helm.

    In a way, a tighter fiscal union would represent the euro coming full-circle: from its origins as a political union, to a more narrowly defined monetary one, and back to a political union. This is a frightening prospect for the region's smaller states, which fear an erosion of sovereignty. Yet it is likely needed now if the region is to retain its common currency.

    As for the resilient euro, its near-term future will likely hinge on the strength with which ECB leaders declare their willingness to act now. A firm commitment, traders say, could keep the currency within its five-year trading band. Empty rhetoric, on the other hand, could cause it to finally crater.