坐在一辆轿车后排，阿里•塔胡尼吸了口烟，透过车窗凝视着利比亚东部城市班加西的景致。仅仅8个月前，他还在华盛顿大学（the University of Washington）商学院担任高级讲师。革命爆发后，他放弃了这份工作，飞往自己的祖国，投身革命洪流。如今穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲已经丧命，作为利比亚临时石油与财政部长，塔胡尼今后面临的任务极为繁重。车窗外，堆得高高的垃圾无人清理，建筑因战火而残破不堪，路灯也根本不亮，但潮水般的人群围着他的座驾欢呼，“阿里博士！阿里博士！”狂喜之情溢于言表，仿佛他是个摇滚巨星。“请看，”他对我说。“这是个富裕的国家，但走到哪里都能闻到污物的臭味。人们希望我有一支魔棒，能改变这一切。”

    改变利比亚的现状——贫困、失业及经济增长停滞——需要的不仅仅是魔法。可是，经济改善至关重要：它将决定这个广袤的石油富国成为民主国家——及跨国公司的稳定市场——还是陷入混乱。

    目前看来，两种情况都有可能出现。战乱中至少有2万名利比亚人丧生，其中许多都是平民。从石油化工重镇扎维亚到港口城市米苏拉塔再到卡扎菲10月20日殒命之地苏尔特，许多居民区都毁于战火。

    尽管战乱之灾相当严重，但卡扎菲42年的独裁统治留下的伤痕更深。经济社会政策扼杀了土生土长的企业，使难以计数的优秀利比亚人流亡国外——塔胡尼正是其中之一。多年来，卡扎菲禁止学校教授英语，声称它是西方邪恶势力的象征，就连路牌都只允许用阿拉伯语标示；失业率超过20%；财政收入的征集很不规律。“我收到了一张大概一年前的电费账单，”尤瑟夫•萨万尼笑称。直到今年2月份，他还是卡扎菲握有大权的儿子赛义夫•伊斯拉姆旗下基金会的负责人，伊斯拉姆本人直到十月下旬仍在逃亡，新政府武装未能找到他的下落。“我为什么要付钱呢？根本没人会付钱。”

    在这一切背后，利比亚其实沐浴在海量财富之中。据一些机构的估计，该国外汇储备约达到2,500亿美元，考虑到利比亚只有640万人口，这个数字令人震惊。利比亚已探明能源储备在非洲冠盖群雄，拥有464亿桶原油和约1.49万亿立方米的天然气。内战使石油生产受到很大影响，在战乱之前，该国每日原油产量达160万桶（相比之下，美国每日原油产量为970万桶）；到了10月份，这一数字已降到原来的大约三分之一。

    Hunkered down in the back of a car, Ali Tarhouni sucks on a cigarette and gazes out at Libya's eastern city of Benghazi. It's been just eight months since he ditched his job as a senior lecturer at the University of Washington's business school and flew to his native country to join the revolution. Muammar Qaddafi is dead, and as Libya's interim oil and finance minister he's contemplating the daunting tasks ahead. Outside the window garbage is piled high, buildings are crumbling, street lights are out. And people are mobbing the car, screaming ecstatically, "Dr. Ali! Dr. Ali!" as if he were a rock star. "Look at this," he tells me. "This is a wealthy country, yet you can smell the sewage everywhere. And people expect you have a magic wand to change things."

    Changing Libya -- its poverty, its joblessness, or its lack of economic growth -- will require more than magic. But change is crucial: It will determine whether this vast, oil-rich country becomes a democracy -- and a stable market for global corporations -- or slides into chaos.

    Right now both scenarios seem possible. At least 20,000 Libyans have been killed, many of them civilians. Neighborhoods stand shattered, from the oil refinery town of Zawiyah to the port cities of Misurata and Sirte, where rebels killed Qaddafi on Oct. 20.

    Bad as the toll is, Qaddafi's 42- year dictatorship left deeper scars. Repressive socialism stifled homegrown enterprises and drove countless smart Libyans, like Tarhouni, into exile. For years Qaddafi banned schools from teaching English, claiming it embodied Western evil; road signs are still Arabic-only. Unemployment exceeds 20%. Revenue collection is patchy. "I got an electricity bill about a year ago," laughs Youssef Sawani, until February the director of the foundation of Qaddafi's hugely powerful son Saif al-Islam, who was still on the run from rebel fighters in late October. "Why would I pay it? No one does."

    And yet Libya is awash in money. Its foreign-currency reserves are by some estimates about $250 billion -- an astonishing sum for a nation of just 6.4 million people. It has Africa's largest proven energy reserves, with more than 46.4 billion barrels of oil and about 1.49 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Until the civil war halted oil production, Libya pumped about 1.6 million barrels a day (by comparison, the U.S. pumps about 9.7 million barrels daily); by late October it was sputtering back with about a third that volume.

    在这片广袤的土地上——面积三倍于德克萨斯州——英国石油（BP）和独立油气公司Hunt Oil曾经赚得大笔财富，直到上世纪70年代卡扎菲将它们的权益收归国有。由于卡扎菲卷入恐怖活动，美国政府对利比亚进行多年制裁以示报复，迫使美国石油巨头们在1986年纷纷撤出；1988年利比亚资助的恐怖分子炸毁了一架泛美航空客机，1992年联合国也开始制裁该国。2004年底，美国公司重返利比亚——卡扎菲当时宣布放弃大规模杀伤性武器，并向洛克比空难遇难家属提供赔偿；作为奖励，美国解除了制裁。对利比亚和欧美石油公司来说，这都是赚钱的大好良机，马拉松石油（Marathon Oil）、西方石油（Occidental Petroleum）、康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）等美国公司均重新开始在利比亚开展业务，道达尔（Total）、埃尼集团（ENI）、雷普索尔（Respol）等欧洲公司则继续揽下大量数十亿美元规模的合同。各界基于争夺新合同，为此罔顾卡扎菲的独裁统治，而是宁愿相信其子赛义夫承诺的全面改革计划。

    2004年底，我在的黎波里第一次见到了赛义夫。当时欧美企业界人士争相涌入该市，尝试与这位在伦敦接受过教育的卡扎菲继承人见面。2010年初，我第二次到访该市，那时赛义夫仍然握有很大影响力，可以左右其父在商业类事务上的决定，因此，一支庞大的美国企业代表团再次造访。今年北约在利比亚发起的军事行动使这一切皆成往事，可在此之前，西方对赛义夫大献殷勤确实取得了成效。就在反叛爆发前两天，一家万豪酒店（J.W. Marriott）大厦在的黎波里风景如画的海滩开业，附近是一家配有游艇码头的喜来登酒店（Sheraton），卡扎菲的防弹宝马和奔驰轿车就停在外面——他后来逃离的黎波里时将这些豪车丢在了身后。起重机往来穿梭，引人注目的购物商场、公寓大楼甚至是一座全新的国会大楼（People's Congress Hall）正拔地而起。后者是卡扎菲政权的象征，由著名设计师扎哈•哈迪德设计。“一个小集团越来越富有，而我们其他人只能眼巴巴地看着，”的黎波里商业咨询网站knowlibya.net的首席执行官萨米•扎普提亚说。

    阿里•塔胡尼可不是卡扎菲政权的老朋友。他原是班加西人，因为参与政治活动，1973年就被逐出大学，旋即逃亡美国，时年仅22岁。作为报复，卡扎菲剥夺了他的国籍，还判处他死刑。塔胡尼在密歇根州立大学（Michigan State University）获得了经济学博士学位，在西雅图定居，生了四个孩子，还成了华盛顿大学福斯特商学院（Foster School of Business）的高级讲师。

    It's here in this giant terrain -- three times the size of Texas -- that Hunt Oil and BP (BP) made fortunes before Qaddafi nationalized their concessions in the 1970s. U.S. sanctions forced American oil majors out in 1986 in retaliation for Qaddafi's involvement in terrorist activities; UN sanctions came in 1992, after the Libyan-sponsored bombing of a Pan Am jetliner in 1988. By late 2004, U.S. companies returned -- a reward for Qaddafi's abandoning weapons of mass destruction and compensating Lockerbie victims. For both sides there were fresh fortunes to be made. Marathon Oil (MRO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), ConocoPhillips (COP), and others resumed operation, while Total (TOT), ENI (E), Respol, and other European companies continued their multibillion-dollar contracts. All elbowed for new deals, ignoring Qaddafi's dictatorship and focusing instead on his son Saif's grand reform promises.

    When I first met Saif in Tripoli in late 2004, U.S. and European business representatives raced around the city trying to meet this London-educated would-be heir apparent. By my second visit in early 2010, Saif held huge sway over decisions about business, and a large U.S. business delegation was again in town. Notwithstanding this year's grueling NATO campaign, the West's courtship paid off. Two days before the revolt erupted, a J.W. Marriott (MAR) tower opened along Tripoli's picturesque seafront. Nearby is a new Four Points Sheraton, complete with a marina; outside, the Qaddafis' armored BMW and Mercedes-Benz sedans sit parked, abandoned during their flight from Tripoli. Cranes loom over Tripoli's splashy half-built shopping malls, apartment complexes, and even a new People's Congress Hall -- a symbol of Qaddafi's regime -- designed by famed architect Zaha Hadid. "A small group got richer and richer, while the rest of us watched," says Sami Zaptia, CEO of the Tripoli business consultancy knowlibya.net.

    Ali Tarhouni was no friend of the regime. Originally from Benghazi, he was expelled from college for political activism and fled to the U.S. in 1973, at age 22. In retaliation, Qaddafi stripped him of his citizenship and sentenced him to death. Tarhouni earned a doctorate in economics from Michigan State University, settled in Seattle, and had four children, becoming a senior lecturer at UW's Foster School of Business.

    今年2月，利比亚革命爆发，局势一片混乱。如今塔胡尼已经60岁了，他坐在电视机前收看相关报道，一刻也不肯离身，直到意识到自己无法再置身事外。他发邮件给好友们解释道：“我必须赶回祖国，尽我所能，出一份力。”

    那时他还无法想象“出一份力”到底意味着什么：利比亚战士们沿着海岸线发起一场场致命的战斗，北约战机则在上空强力打击卡扎菲武装，这是一场漫长而代价沉重的战争。在反对派领导层中，塔胡尼升迁很快。他活力充沛，笑容可亲，很快就赢得了许多朋友。与许多其他在海外度过一生多数时光的利比亚人一样，他回到祖国时，满腔都是活力和主意。爱尔兰、西班牙、英国、加拿大等国，到处都有流亡海外的利比亚人赶回祖国，投身革命。与他们一样，经济学家塔胡尼发现自己突然置身于宏大的全球历史之中——用他的话说，这是一段“使人精疲力竭而又振奋不已的时光。”

    然而，这种兴奋之中也潜藏着众多不详的危险。塔胡尼称，目前这些危险已经成为利比亚最值得担忧的问题。坐拥武装的不同派别彼此对立，全都声称自己为推翻卡扎菲立下首功，埋下了引发新一轮冲突的可能性。卡扎菲购买的大量武器装备保管不善，给利比亚留下了许多毫无戒备的武器库。不过，至少在眼下，塔胡尼还可以品尝胜利的美好滋味。“几乎每一个小时，我胸中洋溢的激情都可以回味一辈子，”他说。

    卡扎菲后来被反对派武装从下水道拖出，随后遭射杀。他身亡的消息传来时，塔胡尼迎来了生命中最激动的一刻。几个小时后，他随车队奔赴饱受战火蹂躏的米苏拉塔，代表反对派领导层正式确认卡扎菲那血迹斑斑、伤痕累累的尸体。一切发展得太快，人们甚至没有多少时间来仔细品味这一刻的感受。

    “40年来，我每天早上醒来，每天晚上睡下时都会想到他。现在他已成往事，”塔胡尼告诉我，“这是什么感觉呢？我也不知道，我需要平静一会儿。”

    祝他好运吧。卡扎菲丧命之后两天，塔胡尼回到了班加西。我跟他同车赶赴解放庆典。在典礼上，反对派国家过渡委员会（the rebel's National Transitional Council）主席正式宣布战争已经结束。对于自己在新政府中将扮演何种角色，塔胡尼还不是很确定。直到10月底，利比亚临时政府总理阿卜杜勒-拉希姆•凯卜仍未选定内阁成员。后卡扎菲时代的第一场大选可能于明年夏季举行。届时，塔胡尼本人的职位也可能会更上一层楼。不过，有些利比亚人认为他更像是个外国人，太美国化了。不经意间，他谈及利比亚人时会说“他们”，而且据他本人的说法，他那美国式迅速同时处理多项任务的风格，与利比亚式的冗长讨论格格不入，形成鲜明对比。“我的做事风格使人们感到震惊，”他说。

    Then came the moment in February when the tumultuous Libyan revolution erupted. Tarhouni, now 60, sat glued to the television until he could no longer stand staying away. He emailed friends, explaining, "I need to go back to help as much as I can."

    Little did he imagine what that "help" would entail: a long, grinding war in which Libyan fighters waged lethal battles along the coast while NATO bombers pummeled the country from above. Tarhouni rose fast in the rebel leadership; he had kinetic energy and a broad smile, and he quickly won friends. Like many other Libyans who'd spent much of their lives abroad, he arrived back brimming with energy and ideas. Like those other émigrés from Ireland, Spain, Britain, Canada, and elsewhere who flew home for the revolution, the economist found himself suddenly thrust into outsize global history -- an "exhausting, exhilarating time," he says.

    Amid the excitement are also ominous perils, which Tarhouni says are now his country's most pressing worries. Well-armed rival brigades each claim primacy in toppling Qaddafi, raising the potential for fresh conflicts. And Qaddafi's profligate weapons purchases have left Libya with mountains of unsecured armaments. But for now Tarhouni is relishing an extraordinary taste of victory. "Almost every hour you pack enough emotions for a lifetime," he says.

    The most intense emotion came when Tarhouni got word that Qaddafi was dead, captured in a sewage ditch and shot by rebels. A few hours later Tarhouni sped by convoy to the war-ravaged town of Misurata to formally identify the bloodied and beaten corpse of his tormenter on behalf of the rebel leaders. In the breakneck speed of their work, there was little time for the experience to hit home.

    "For 40 years I'd wake up and go to sleep with him in my mind. And now he's not here anymore," Tarhouni tells me. "How does it feel? I have no idea. I need some quiet time."

    Good luck with that. Two days after Qaddafi's death, Tarhouni is in Benghazi. I hitch a ride with him to the liberation ceremony, where the rebel's National Transitional Council president formally declares the war over. Tarhouni remains uncertain about what role he'll play in the new government. The new interim Prime Minister, Abdurrahim El Keeb, had yet to pick his cabinet by the end of October. It's possible too that Tarhouni's bigger role could come when Libya's first post-Qaddafi elections are held, probably next summer. But some Libyans believe he is too much of an outsider, too American. He unwittingly refers to Libyans as "they" and says his American-style rapid multitasking is a sharp contrast to Libyans' languorous discussions. "People are shocked at the way I do things," he says.

    可是，塔胡尼以及其他海外归国人士那套雷厉风行的作风，可能正是利比亚从独裁统治和血腥战乱中复苏所需的东西。塔胡尼憧憬沿着地中海最长的海岸线发展高端旅游业——利比亚拥有数百公里未受污染的海岸，在广袤无垠的撒哈拉沙漠发展太阳能和风力发电，与毗邻的欧洲构建更密切的贸易关系，并打造北非最领先的金融服务行业。

    利比亚官员称，反对派的主要支持者，比如西方北约成员国和卡塔尔，有望获得大额合同。随着反对派武装10月份横扫苏尔特，法国企业高管们坐满了一架飞机，奔赴的黎波里与胜利者热情握手；德国和英国高管数量虽没有这么多，但也已赶到该国一探深浅。

    尽管如此，塔胡尼表示，卡扎菲时代结束后，利比亚人的期望值很高，几乎无法满足。人们簇拥在汽车外，争相把手伸入车窗向塔胡尼致意，他说道，“人们希望看到立竿见影的变化，可是长期经济发展需要耐心，这正是我最担忧的。”步出汽车之时，他说，“《乱世佳人》（Gone With the Wind）中那句台词是怎么说的来着？”很少有利比亚人听说过这部电影。“明天是新的一天。”随后，在保镖的簇拥之下，他登上高台，听过渡委员会主席宣布：利比亚迎来了自由。

    译者：小宇

    But Tarhouni's no-nonsense speediness, and that of other returnees, could be just what Libya needs as it recovers from dictatorship and bloodshed. Tarhouni envisions high-end tourism along the Mediterranean's longest coastline -- Libya has hundreds of miles of virgin beach -- solar and wind energy projects in the mammoth Sahara; tight trade links to nearby Europe; and North Africa's first financial services industry.

    The rebels' key backers, such as the Western NATO members and Qatar, are expected to win big contracts, say Libyan officials. As the rebels stormed through Sirte in October, a planeload of French business executives flew into Tripoli to glad-hand the victors, and smaller groups of German and British executives have since arrived to test the waters.

    Still, Tarhouni says, it will be impossible to satisfy Libyans' sky-high expectations with Qaddafi gone. As people crowd around the car, thrusting their hands through the window, he says, "People want to see change immediately. But long-term economic development requires patience. That's my worry." As he hops out he asks, "What's the line from Gone With the Wind?" a film precious few Libyans know. "Tomorrow is another day," he says, before being ushered by his bodyguards to the stage to finally hear his country declared free.