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英国驻美大使辞职,两国有望达成贸易协议?

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Darroch quit last Wednesday, following an extraordinary diplomatic storm around leaked comments in which he derided President Donald Trump’s administration as “uniquely dysfunctional” and “chaotic.” The leak prompted a furious retaliation from Trump, who insulted Darroch on Twitter and said he refused to work with the ambassador.

All in all, it’s the lowest point in a long while for the supposed “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U.K. But some see a silver lining.

“The right decision,” tweeted Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit party and, in his former incarnation as U.K. Independence Party leader, one of the principle campaigners for the U.K.’s departure from the EU. “Time [to] put in a non-Remainer who wants a trade deal with America.”

Darroch previously served as the U.K.’s permanent representative to the European Union, under former Prime Ministers Gordon Brown and David Cameron, and Brexiteers view him as being overly sympathetic to the EU.

One of the main rationales behind Brexit is that it will allow the U.K. to strike its own trade agreements. Right now it cannot do so, because being in the EU means negotiating and signing trade deals as a bloc. The EU does not have a free-trade agreement with the U.S., but the U.K. would be able to enter into such a deal after leaving the EU.

Johnson’s role

Apart from Farage, the other chief cheerleader for Brexit was Boris Johnson, who is highly likely to become Britain’s next prime minister, and he is taking serious flak for his role in the Darroch affair.

Although Johnson once accused Trump of “quite stupefying ignorance that makes him frankly unfit to hold the office of president of the United States,” he has recently been quite tight with Trump.

As foreign secretary, a role he quit last year, Johnson said he was “increasingly admiring of Donald Trump,” and argued that the president’s chaotic style would be useful in trying to get a good Brexit result. A couple months ago, Trump backed Johnson in his bid to replace May. Shortly afterwards, when Trump outraged British politicians across the spectrum by suggesting that the country’s beloved health service should be “on the table” in U.K.-U.S. trade talks, Johnson was one of the few leadership candidates not to attack the president.

Johnson’s stance on the leaked Darroch memos is widely seen as having been the final straw for the embattled ambassador. In a Tuesday debate against U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Johnson’s rival in the prime minister race, Johnson refused to back Darroch or to condemn Trump over his tweeted insults against the ambassador.

May and Hunt had both supported Darroch in the dispute. But, according to the Financial Times, Darroch told colleagues after the debate that it was clear Johnson would fire him ahead of Darroch’s planned retirement at the end of the year, so he walked the plank instead. The Guardian also separately reported that the debate made up Darroch’s mind.

Johnson, as a result, is receiving heavy political blowback, with ministers from his own Conservative party lashing out at his failure to stand up for Darroch. “[Johnson has] basically thrown this fantastic diplomat under a bus to serve his own personal interests,” said Europe Minister Alan Duncan.

“If the U.K. can’t protect diplomatic communications and that costs people their careers when all they’ve done is to execute the wishes of the government, we will degrade the quality of our envoys, diminish our influence and weaken our country,” tweeted Tom Tugendhat, a Conservative Party lawmaker, following the news of the resignation.

The fallout

But how did the memos leak to the Mail on Sunday in the first place? Hunt has confirmed that the government is considering the possibility that Darroch’s diplomatic missives were hacked and passed on by a hostile state, possibly Russia or Iran. Whether or not this turns out to be true, the police are now involved in the investigation.

As for the identity of Darroch’s replacement, it’s by no means clear that he or she will be more enthusiastic about either Brexit or the prospect of a U.S. trade deal. Because Darroch resigned now, rather than waiting for Johnson to take over, the next ambassador could be appointed by May, who is still hanging around as caretaker prime minister until her replacement is chosen by party members.

Might Farage get the job? When the Brexit Party leader called on last Wednesday for Darroch’s replacement to be a “non-Remainer who wants a trade deal with America,” some saw it as a thinly-veiled attempt at self-nomination.

The idea of Farage as ambassador has been floated before: Trump suggested Farage replace Darroch back in 2016. At the time, the British government shot down the idea, saying Darrach was doing the job just fine, thanks.

Even with the ambassador role now vacant, Farage’s critics in the U.K.—there are many—are recoiling at the idea.

“Who could Farage be thinking of?” tweeted Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party. “The last thing that should happen is the politicization of the civil service and the replacement of honorable diplomats with charlatans like this guy.”

英国驻美大使金·达罗克在上周三宣布辞职,此前因为他嘲笑美国总统唐纳德·特朗普领导下的政府“极其不正常”且“一片混乱”的言论外泄,引发了巨大的外交风暴。言论泄密后,特朗普挟愤报复,在推特(Twitter)上大骂达罗克,并称拒绝与其合作。

总之,英美之间所谓的“特殊关系”已经跌落至长期以来的低点。有些人却从中看到了两国关系破冰的一线希望。

“这个决定很正确。”英国退欧党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇在推特上写道,他曾经是英国独立党领袖,也是支持英国脱离欧盟的主要活动家之一。“是时候让希望与美国达成贸易协议的非留欧派人士加入了。”

在英国前首相戈登·布朗和戴维·卡梅伦任职期间,达罗克曾经担任英国常驻欧盟代表,退欧派认为他过于倾向欧盟。

英国退欧的主要原因之一就是之后英国可以达成自己的贸易协定。现在英国还不可以,因为留在欧盟就意味着,要由欧盟作为国家集团来进行谈判和签署贸易协议。欧盟与美国之间没有自由贸易协定,但英国离开欧盟后就可以跟美国签订。

约翰逊的角色

除了法拉奇,英国退欧的另一位“拉拉队长”是很有机会担任下任英国首相的鲍里斯·约翰逊,而他正因在达罗克事件的处置而受到严厉抨击。

虽然约翰逊曾经指责特朗普“无知程度令人震惊,老实说很不适合担任美国总统”,但最近他跟特朗普的关系却相当密切。

约翰逊去年辞去了英国外交大臣的职务,在任期间他曾经表示“越来越赞赏唐纳德·特朗普”,还认为特朗普的混乱风格对英国争取顺利退欧有所帮助。几个月前,特朗普曾经支持约翰逊竞选下一任英国首相。不久之后,特朗普建议英美贸易谈判时应该公开讨论英国人很看重的医疗服务,激怒了众多英国政客,多数英国首相候选人群起抨击特朗普,但约翰逊不在其列。

在达罗克备忘录外泄后,人们广泛认为约翰逊的立场是压倒他的最后一根稻草。上周二与另一位英国首相候选人的外交大臣杰里米·亨特辩论时,约翰逊拒绝支持达罗克,也拒绝谴责特朗普在推特上辱骂达罗克。

在辩论中,特雷莎·梅和亨特都支持达罗克,但据英国《金融时报》报道,辩论结束后达罗克告诉同事,很明显一旦约翰逊当选就炒掉他,不会容他按计划在年底退休,因此选择自己走人。另据《卫报》报道,正是这场辩论让达罗克下定决心辞职。

因此,约翰逊受到政界猛烈抨击,他所在的保守党大臣们猛烈抨击他没帮达罗克说话。 “基本上可以说(约翰逊)为了个人利益把这位优秀的外交官扔到了公交车下。” 欧洲大臣艾伦·邓肯说道。

“如果英国不能保护外交沟通,外交人员只因为执行政府意愿就付出职业生涯的代价,会导致派出的大使的素质下降,影响力变小,国家变弱。”当达罗克辞职的消息传出后,保守党议员汤姆·图根哈特在推特上写道。

余波

备忘录最初是如何泄露给《星期日邮报》的呢?亨特已经证实,英国政府正在考虑有没有可能是某个敌对国家,可能是俄罗斯或伊朗黑客入侵后获取了达罗克的外交公文,并散发了出去。无论这种猜测是否属实,警方现已介入调查。

至于达罗克的继任者,目前还不清楚此人对英国退欧还是对跟美国达成贸易协定更感兴趣。由于达罗克现在已经辞职,没有等到约翰逊接手政府,因此下一任大使可能要由目前担任看守内阁首相的特雷莎·梅任命,直到党内成员选出继任者接替梅为止。

会是法拉奇吗?上周三,这位英国退欧党领导人呼吁让“希望与美国达成贸易协议的非留欧派”接替达罗克时,有些人认为他对自己的企图几乎不加掩饰。

让法拉奇担任驻美大使的想法早就有过:特朗普曾经在2016年建议法拉奇取代达罗奇。当时英国政府表示拒绝,说达罗克做得很好,谢了。

哪怕大使职位现已空缺,英国众多批评法拉奇的人士还是不愿意考虑他。

“法拉奇会为谁考虑呢?”苏格兰民族党领袖尼古拉·斯特金在推特上说道。“不管是公务员政治化,还是让法拉奇这样的骗子接任光荣的外交官一职,都不应该发生。”(财富中文网)

译者:艾伦

审校:夏林

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