It’s the million dollar question for economists and investors alike: Is the U.S. headed for a recession this year?

According to Federal Reserve minutes published on April 10, the answer is: It’s not around the corner. The central bank is likely to hold off on any rate hike or cut this year – though they did not rule out the possibility of a move.

“Several participants noted that their views of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate could shift in either direction based on incoming data and other developments,’’ according to minutes released last Wednesday of the Fed’s March 19-20 meeting.

At the March meeting, officials voted to hold rates steady. The target policy rate was left in a historically low range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. (This, after raising interest rates four times in 2018).

What does this all mean? The U.S. economy is still relatively healthy, with low unemployment and subdued inflation. The economic expansion, which began 10 years ago, “almost certainly will become the longest on record,’’ this summer, Federal Reserve vice chairman Richard Clarida said in prepared remarks for the Institute of International Finance policy summit, Reuters reported on April 11.

“That’s the million-dollar question. Everyone wants to know if there will be a recession,’’ said Michael Reynolds, investment strategy officer at Glenmede, an investment and wealth management firm with more than $37 billion in assets under management. “Calling for a recession in the next 12 months is premature.’’

There’s still room for U.S. equities to grow, there’s a small rebound in global economies, and filings for jobless claims are the lowest since 1969–so long ago that “The Beatles Abbey Road album was on the charts,’’ Reynolds said.

The Fed’s outlook also remained positive. “Participants generally expected economic activity to continue to expand, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to remain near 2 percent,’’ according to the minutes.

The Fed, however, did strike a cautious note.

Policy makers noted “significant uncertainties” that include Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, slowdowns in Europe and China and President Trump’s continuing trade war.

“Economic growth in the remaining quarters of 2019 and in the subsequent couple of years would likely be a little lower, on balance, than they had previously forecast,” according to the minutes. “Reasons cited for these downward revisions included disappointing news on global growth and less of a boost from fiscal policy than had previously been anticipated.”

Glenmede’s Reynolds said the Fed minutes are “in line with the communication they provided after the meeting. It’s a more patient approach; more of a wait-and-see. They don’t want to get overextended.’’

Still, The Wall Street Journal said on April 11 in its survey this month that economists have steadily raised their assessment of the risk of recession. In April, economists saw a 26% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 25% in March and 18% in October, according to the Journal’s survey.

“Some risks have been rising, but not to the extent that we need to worry,’’ Reynolds said. “We need to have our ears perked up, but the risks are sort of balanced.’’

Or as the Beatles sang, Let It Be.

美国经济今年是否会陷入衰退？这对于经济学家和投资者来说，无疑是一个至关重要的大问题。

从4月10日公布的美联储的会议纪要来看，美国经济今年不太可能会陷入衰退。美联储今年加息或减息的可能都不大——当然它也没有完全排除汇率调整的可能性。

上周三，美联储公布了3月19日至20日会议的纪要。可以看出，会上有几位参会者认为，根据下步的经济数据和其他指标进展，联邦基准利率的适合目标区间向上或向下浮动，都是有可能的。

在今年3月的会议上，经过投票，美联储官员们决定继续保持利率稳定。此前，美联储的目标政策利率处于2.25%至2.5%之间，处于历史上较低水平（而且这还是在2018年连续四次加息之后）。

这一切意味着什么？说明美国经济依然是相对健康的，失业率和通胀都保持在较低水平。据路透社4月11日报道，美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达在国际金融研究所政策峰会的筹备讲话上表示，到今年夏天，“本轮从10年前开始的经济增长，将成为有纪录以来最长的一次。”

Glenmede公司的投资策略师迈克尔·雷诺兹表示：“所有人都想知道经济是否会陷入衰退，这是一个非常重要的问题。但是现在就预言未来12个月是否会出现衰退，还为时过早。”Glenmede是一家投资与财富管理公司，管理资产超过370亿美元。

目前，美国股市仍有上涨空间，全球经济也出现了小幅反弹。美国申报失业的人数也降低至1969年以来的最低水平。“1969年披头士乐队才刚火起来。”雷诺兹说。

美联储对美国经济前景保持了乐观展望。会议纪要指出：“与会人员基本认为，经济活动将继续扩张，就业市场将保持强劲，通胀率将继续保持在接近2%的水平。”

不过与此同时，美联储也提醒大家应该保持谨慎。

会议指出，经济的“重大不确定性因素”依然存在，如英国脱欧、欧洲和中国经济放缓，以及特朗普继续掀起贸易战等。

会议纪要指出：“2019年剩余几个季度里，以及在未来几年里，美国经济增长率可能会低于此前的预期。主要原因是全球经济增长疲软，以及财政刺激力度弱于预期。”

Glenmede公司的雷诺兹表示，美联储的会议纪要精神“与会后透露的信号基本一致。这表明了美联储的耐心，以及一种观望的态度，他们不希望经济过度扩张。”

不过，《华尔街日报》于4月11日表示，据该报本月进行的调查，经济学家们已经稳步提高了对衰退风险的预期。今年4月，经济学家预计未来12个月内出现衰退的可能性为26%，高于今年3月的25%和去年10月的18%。

雷诺兹表示：“有些风险因素正在上升，但还没有达到需要我们担心的程度。我们需要保持警惕，不过目前的风险还是比较均衡的。”

也许就像披头士的那首歌里唱的一样，该来的总会来的。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎