Energy prices may soon rise, but not for anything to do with Peak Oil—the theory that production will soon reach a peak and begin to fall—the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its Oil Market Report released last Friday.

Overall supply has actually grown to record highs of over 100 million barrels a day thanks to a mix of factors such as the American shale boom and more production in Libya and Nigeria.

Several other factors suggest that prices should fall: The EIA is revising its forecast demand growth for 2018 and 2019 downward by 100,000 barrels a day from its previous report. And stored oil grew by about 500,000 barrels a day in the second quarter of 2018—a growth the IEA estimates has continued in the third quarter—suggesting that supply is still somewhat ahead of demand.

But choke points in the global market—such as lagging infrastructure for exporting North America’s shale-derived natural gas, currency fluctuations, U.S. sanctions on Iran, and trade squabbles—threaten to make energy costlier.

While the Indian government has said it will not respect the Iran sanctions and China may only comply partway, Iran’s drop in production since the U.S. announced the sanctions (which take effect Nov. 4) has been huge: some 800,000 barrels a day. And Venezuela, in the midst of massive inflation and political instability, is producing less and less oil.

And so, despite record production, prices for Brent crude oil remain over $80 a barrel. The EIA writes, “our position is that expensive energy is back, with oil, gas and coal trading at multi-year highs, and it poses a threat to economic growth.”

国际能源署于上周五发布的原油市场报告预测，能源价格可能很快就会上涨，但与“原油产量峰值”理论（原油产量很快将达到最大值然后开始回落）无关。

受一系列因素的影响，例如美国页岩油的兴起，以及利比亚和尼日利亚产量的增加，原油的整体供应量实际上已创历史记录，每日超过了一亿桶。

其他一些因素则显示原油价格应下跌：国际能源署将此前报告中对2018-2019原油需求增长的预测下调了10万桶/天。而原油储存量在2018年第二季度增长了50万桶/天，国际能源署预测这一态势将延续至第三季度，这意味着供应依然小幅领先需求。

但全球市场上的瓶颈，例如北美页岩天然气出口基础设施的匮乏、货币波动、美国对伊朗的制裁以及贸易摩擦，都在推动能源成本的上升。

尽管印度政府已表示不会理会伊朗制裁，而且中国可能只会部分遵守，但伊朗原油产量自美国宣布制裁（11月4日生效）以来出现了巨大跌幅，约80万桶/天。委内瑞拉正遭遇大规模通胀和政治动荡，其原油产量也是越来越少。

正因为如此，尽管原油产量创下历史新高，但布伦特原油期货价格仍高于80美元/桶。国际能源署写道：“我们认为，能源将回归高价时代，原油、天然气和煤的交易价格将创历史新高，但这一现象将不利于全球经济的增长。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林