Kevin Mershon, a 32-year-old entrepreneur in Bakersfield, Calif., has spent much of his adult life trying to persuade ambitious, technically oriented friends to stay in Bakersfield. He was raised there, went to college at San Jose State University to study computer science, then dropped out and—to the puzzlement of some friends—came home. Since then, he has become the acting director of Kern Innovation and Technology Community, an organization trying to build a tech community in Kern County, Bakersfield’s home, and the managing partner of Start With Bakersfield, a venture capital firm that invests in local startups. Yet despite all his pro-Bakersfield arguments (cheaper housing! chances to network with local power brokers!), Mershon keeps watching people leave for techier cities. It’s a chicken-and-egg problem of the highest order. Technical people won’t stay in Bakersfield because not enough companies will hire them or invest in their startups, and companies and investors won’t come to Bakersfield because they find the local tech talent unimpressive. Other cities have so much momentum that Mershon has concluded that Bakersfield and similar places are bound to fall further behind. “It’s just insurmountable,” he says.

Mershon’s pessimism is borne out by evidence. The latest comes from the Brookings Institution, which studied a database of computer skills (from database entry to coding software) used in various occupations, then made a map of “digital scores” for U.S. metropolitan areas. Bakersfield tied with Las Vegas for the lowest average score among large cities, while San Jose scored the highest. What is most striking is that, though people like Mershon have been laboring for years to bridge the digital gap between cities like San Jose and those like Bakersfield, it doesn’t seem to be fully working. The Brookings researchers ranked cities’ scores from 2002, then looked at how much each of those cities had improved as of 2016. They found that, in general, the cities whose scores used to be lowest have been closing the gap with the ones that used to be stronger, as technology infiltrates all kinds of occupations, from nursing to construction work. But when it comes to the highly digital employment that tends to be well-paid, like computer programming, San Jose and San Francisco are even further ahead now than they used to be.

Startups depend on venture capital funding, and that kind of investment is getting more concentrated in Silicon Valley—so that’s where startups tend to put their roots and start hiring. Also, because both startups and more established tech companies hire a relatively small number of super-talented, creative employees—the kind who can come up with moneymaking innovations—they tend to hire in the places, like San Francisco and San Jose, where those would-be employees are known to gravitate. Both these effects are compounded by the fact that tech has become a winner-take-all market, with companies like Google and Apple consolidating their power—giving an advantage to the cities where they’re based. People benefit from “living and working in the right place,” says Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings. “That’s always been true, but digital technologies have really amplified that effect.”

It’s an unsettling conclusion. People understand that a lot of well-paid blue-collar laborers and office workers have found their jobs automated into extinction, but we have consoled ourselves with the thought that all this change will create new jobs for the people who have been displaced. The Brookings finding confirms that while some technical jobs are going to some of the cities that have been most hollowed out, the best ones aren’t. Mershon, in Bakersfield, has started to feel that he should be encouraging the city’s brightest residents to leave town after all, to give them a shot at doing well. He consoles himself with the thought that Start With Bakersfield could at least invest in some of them before sending them off to become successful entrepreneurs elsewhere.

A version of this article appears in the Jan. 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline, “A Revolution of Have and Have-Nots.”

加州贝克尔斯菲的32岁企业家凯文·莫尚，自成年后就把大部分的精力放在劝说志存高远的技术精英留在这个城市。凯文·莫尚是这里土生土长的人。在圣何塞州立大学就读计算机科学专业时，他选择了退学并回到家乡，此举令他的一些挚友颇感诧异。自那时起，凯文·莫尚成为科恩创新技术社区（Kern Innovation and Technology Community）的代理主任，这个社区专注于在贝克尔斯菲市附近的科恩郡创立技术社区。同时，他还是致力于投资当地创业公司的“从贝克尔斯菲市开始”（ Start With Bakersfield）风投公司的管理合伙人。凯文·莫尚一直在宣扬留在贝克尔斯菲市的好处（房价便宜、有机会与当地的权力经纪人打交道等）。然而，他还是不得不眼睁睁看着贝克尔斯菲市民背井离乡，奔赴技术积淀更深的城市。这种现象的成因很矛盾，与那个经典的问题如出一辙：究竟是先有鸡还是先有蛋？由于很难在这里找到就业机会或创业公司的投资资金，技术型人才选择不留在贝克尔斯菲市。而公司和投资者不把目光投向这个城市，则是因为他们发现这里的技术人才相当稀缺。莫尚认为其他大城市技术的发展潜力巨大，贝克尔斯菲市等城市注定要远远落后。他说：“想实现超越，难如登天。”

莫尚针对这一问题的悲观看法是有据可循的。最近，布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）开展了一项关于在不同工作领域使用计算机技能（从数据库的录入到使用编码软件）的数据库研究，并编制了一张美国大都市的“数字化分数”分布图。从这个图上看来，贝克尔斯菲市与拉斯维加斯市打成平手，沦为平均分数最低的城市；而圣何塞市则拔得头筹。有一点要指出的是：尽管许多人和莫尚一样付出了数年的努力，试图缩小诸如圣何塞市和贝克尔斯菲市的城市间的差距，不过他们的满腔热情似乎多半打了水漂。布鲁金斯研究者自2002年开始给城市打分排名，分析这些城市截止到2016年的进步速度。据他们的发现，大体而言，之前分数最低的城市与之前分数更高的城市的差距已经在渐渐缩小，原因是技术的影响渗透到各行各业，从护理工作到建筑施工一概如此。不过，当焦点转向计算机编程等数字化程度和薪资水平齐高的行业时，情况就不这么乐观了。就就业人数而言，圣何塞市和旧金山市比起以前更是遥遥领先。

初创公司需要风投的融资，而越来越多的投资都流向了硅谷。因此，初创公司倾向于在这里扎根成立，并开始招聘员工。同样，由于初创公司和更知名的公司都需要雇佣小部分才能出众、具有创新思维（其创新能力能为公司带来盈利）的人才，他们倾向于在人才吸引力强的旧金山市和圣何塞市进行招聘工作。在这种双重效应的作用下，技术一跃成为一个“胜者为王”的市场。谷歌和苹果等大公司称霸的地位不断得到巩固，同时也为它们所在城市带来积极效应。布鲁金斯学会高级研究员马克·穆罗认为，“在合适的环境下生活和工作”，人们受益良多。“这是由来已久的定律，只是数字化技术真正将这种效应扩大化了。”

这个结论着实让人难以心安。人们能理解这一现象：大量的高薪蓝领工人和办公室职员不知不觉就丢了饭碗。不过我们觉得这些变化将会为失业者提供就业机会，并借此安慰自己。布鲁金斯的研究发现证实了这一观点：尽管部分技术工作机会流向了业已中空的城市，然而最好的工作机会依然留在主要城市里。因此，莫尚开始觉得他应该鼓励贝克尔斯菲市最优秀的居民走出这方天地，抓住更好的发展机会。他安慰自己，至少在送这些人才前往其他地方成为优秀企业家之前，“始于贝克尔斯菲市”公司还有机会能在他们中的一部分人上注入投资。（财富中文网）

本文的另一版本登载在2018年1月1日出版的《财富》杂志，标题为“一场贫富之间的技术革命”。

译者：Mr.