The U.S. is set to enjoy the biggest increase in oil and gas production the world has ever seen over the next few years, according to a new report out Tuesday.

The report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based think tank, is a thumping endorsement for the shale sector’s resilience in the face of a two-year attempt by Saudi Arabia and others to squeeze it. That’s already visible in U.S. government forecasts, which say U.S. crude oil production will rise from an average of 9.2 million barrels a day this year to 9.9 million barrels a day in 2018, a new all-time high beating a record set in 1970.

The IEA said the U.S. will account for 80% of the increase in global oil supply between now and 2025, as shale producers find ever more ways to pump oil profitably even at lower prices. By the late 2020s, the U.S. will become a net exporter of oil for the first time since the 1950s.

In natural gas the trend is the same, only faster. By the mid 2020s, the IEA expects the U.S. to become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, demand for which is set to rise strongly as China, India, and Southeast Asia all turn away from coal to cleaner energy sources.

Also helping the equation is the projection that oil demand in the U.S. is set to fall by over 4 million barrels a day by 2040, due to the spread of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency in those vehicles that still use combustion engines.

周二发布的一份最新报告称，未来几年内，美国石油天然气产量将获得全球最高增幅。

巴黎智库国际能源署（International Energy Agency）的报告，对于美国页岩行业在沙特阿拉伯等国近两年的压制下的回弹能力，给出了巨大的认可。这在美国政府的预测中已经显而易见。美国预测国内原油产量将从今年的平均920万桶/年，到2018年增长到990万桶/天，打破1970年创下的史上最高记录。

国际能源署表示，随着页岩油生产商找到更多产油方法，即使在更低油价的情况下依旧可实现盈利，从现在到2025年，美国将在全球石油供应增幅中占到80%。到2020年代后期，美国将自上世纪50年代以来首次成为净石油出口国。

天然气行业也将迎来相同的趋势，而且速度更快。国际能源署预测，随着中国、印度和东南亚从煤炭转向清洁能源，对液化天然气的需求将大幅增长，到2020年代中期，美国将成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国。

另外一个有利因素是，随着电动汽车的普及和内燃机汽车燃油效率的改善，到2040年，美国的石油需求将下降超过400万桶/天。

 

“The U.S. will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said at a press conference in London. He said that the increase in absolute terms will dwarf even the ramp-ups delivered by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the post-war period. Between 2005 and 2030, total U.S. oil output will double from less than 15 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to over 31 million.

The transformation is set to give U.S. diplomacy considerably more clout, lessening the dependence on Middle Eastern oil and making the U.S. the answer to some developing nations’ most pressing needs.

“The U.S. Secretary of State will be sitting more comfortably in his seat than the the Secretary of State of [today’s] energy exporting countries,” Birol said.

The IEA’s forecasts overlap largely with the Trump administration’s pursuit of what it calls “energy dominance”—a strategy that has been visible in its rollback of various Obama-era policies this year (above all in the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord), and in a big expansion of federal acreage offered for oil and gas prospecting.

But even such “dominance” won’t completely free the U.S. of dependence on potentially unreliable sources of foreign energy. U.S. refineries are mostly engineered to process foreign crude blends which are heavier and have a higher sulfur content, whereas most of the “tight oil” being exploited by shale companies and oil extracted from the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska is lighter and “sweeter.” That means that the U.S. will continue to import from places such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, while U.S. crude will be exported in ever-greater volumes, the IEA said.

Nor does it mean that the Middle East will lose its key role in the world’s energy markets.

“Although the U.S. will become the biggest producer, the Middle East will still be the most important exporting region, especially for Asia,” Birol said, pointing out that China, India, and Southeast Asia will still demand big incremental amounts of oil and gas in future, even allowing for the boom in renewables in those countries.

“The notion of independence in energy is important, but in practice, no country is an island in a deeply interconnected energy world,” the IEA said.

Emerging U.S. dominance was one of four mega-trends in world energy markets highlighted by the IEA in its review. The others were the explosive growth of renewable energy sources, especially solar photo-voltaic energy; China’s increasing prioritization of cleaner energy; and the huge long-term rise in global electricity demand, reflecting higher living standards in the emerging world—notably in the shape of demand for air conditioning. The IEA said demand for cooling will add more to global electricity demand than the spread of electric vehicles.

国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在伦敦召开的新闻发布会上表示：“未来几十年内，美国将成为无可争议的全球石油天然气行业领袖。”他认为沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在战后时期的产量增长，在美国未来绝对产量的增长面前，也将相形见绌。2005年至2030年期间，美国总石油产量将翻一番，从不足每天1,500万桶石油当量增加到超过3,100万桶。

这种转变将赋予美国更大的外交影响力，减少美国对中东石油的依赖，使美国可以满足个别发展中国家最紧迫的需求。

比罗尔表示：“未来美国国务卿的位置，将比[今天的]能源出口国的国务卿更轻松。”

国际能源署的预测与特朗普政府所追求的所谓“能源主导”地位大部分是重叠的 — 特朗普政府的这一策略，从其今年推翻奥巴马时代的各种政策（尤其是美国退出《巴黎气候协定》）和大幅增加用于石油天然气勘探的联邦土地资产供应中可以显而易见。

但即便这种“主导”地位也无法使美国完全摆脱对于潜在不可靠的外国能源的依赖。美国大部分炼油厂被设计用于加工外国混合原油，其中大部分是含硫量更高的重质油，而页岩油公司开采的多数“致密油”和从墨西哥湾与阿拉斯加开采的石油多数为低硫轻质油。国际能源署表示，这意味着，美国将继续从委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯等地进口石油，同时美国原油的出口量会大幅增加。

但这并不意味着中东将失去其在全球能源市场中的关键地位。

比罗尔表示：“虽然美国将成为全球最大的产油国，但中东依旧是最重要的出口区域，尤其是对于亚洲而言。”他指出，未来，即使中国、印度和东南亚地区的可再生能源将迎来繁荣，但这些国家对于石油天然气的需求会继续大幅增长。

国际能源署称：“在能源领域保持独立固然重要，但实际上，在深度互联的能源领域，没有任何一个国家是孤岛。”

国际能源署在报告中表示，美国未来的主导地位将是全球能源市场的四个重要趋势之一。其他趋势分别是可再生能源的爆炸式增长，尤其是光伏太阳能；中国对清洁能源的日益重视；以及全球电力需求的长期大幅增长，反映出新兴市场生活水平的提高，尤其是空调需求的增加。国际能源署称，制冷需求带来的全球电力需求增幅，将高于电动汽车的普及。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓