The Fortune 500, our annual ranking of the largest U.S. companies, has been in a constant state of flux since the first one was published in 1955. This year is no different, and surely by 2025, plenty of companies we’ve barely heard of will knock stalwarts and industry incumbents from the list.

We could easily speculate as to which hot startups and fast-growing businesses are destined to join the Fortune 500 in the next decade. We could even pull directly from our annual fastest-growing public companies list, which last year was dominated by the shale, financial services and housing/real estate sectors.

But our speculation would be just that. Rather than take wild guesses, we’ve turned to data. The following list takes the average compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, over the last five years for the Fortune 500 and uses that figure to extrapolate each company’s growth for the next 10 years. Assuming that past growth equals future growth is not a perfect methodology. (For example, our top pick, Energy Transfer Equity, has grown thanks to an $18 billion acquisition that it will likely take years to absorb and not be repeated.) Beyond that, one has to assume there are limits to how much a company can grow. The first six companies on our “Fortune 500 of 2025” list have projected revenues of more than $1 trillion. That’s more than double the 2014 revenue of Wal-Mart, the No. 1 Fortune 500 company on this year’s list, and feels like a bit of a stretch. Still, it’s a fun thought exercise.

The list is notably dominated by what’s thought of as the four horsemen of the tech industry: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Google. Even though they’re all large, maturing businesses, they have continued to roll out new products, acquire exciting startups, and push into new lines of business at an aggressive pace. Their revenue growth reflects that.

And if you’re reading this from the year 2025, feel free to let us know how wrong we were.

《财富》杂志每年都会发布“财富美国500强”榜单，为美国最大的企业排定座次。自从1955年首次发布以来，上榜企业一直像走马灯似的换了一茬又一茬，今年自然也是一样。到2025年，肯定有很多我们几乎没听说过的公司会将一些常年上榜的老牌企业或行业巨头挤下这份榜单。

哪些热门的创业公司和增长最快的企业，可能在下个十年内加入“财富500强”？我们倒是不妨猜一猜。我们甚至可以直接从《财富》的年度增长最快上市公司排行榜上看出一些端倪。去年这张榜单主要被页岩气、金融服务业和房地产企业主宰。

不过我们的推测也就仅限于此了，因为我们需要的是数据支持，而不是脑洞大开的幻想。以下这份榜单基于财富500强企业过去5年的年均复合增长率，来推测每家上榜公司未来10年的增长情况。当然，将未来的增长率等同于过去并不是一种完美的假设。（比如，排在这份榜单之首的Energy Transfer Equity公司主要得益于一笔180亿美元的收购，该公司估计需要几年的时间才能把这笔资产完全消化，这种规模增长不可能重复。）另外，一个公司的增长也是有极限的。在我们的“2025年财富美国500强”榜单上，前6家公司的预期年收入高达1万亿美元以上，这几乎是2014年“美国500强”之首沃尔玛年收入的2倍多。当然，这个数值也是有弹性的。不管怎样，这都是一次不错的脑力练习。

显然，作为科技业目前的“四巨头”，苹果、Facebook、亚马逊和谷歌依然是这份榜单的主宰者。尽管这些公司已经是成熟的大型企业，但它们仍在持续发布新产品，收购令人兴奋的创业公司，同时快速进军新的业务领域。它们的收益增长也反映了这一点。

如果你是在2025年读到这篇文章。欢迎你告诉我们这些预测错了多少。

1. Energy Transfer Equity

The company, ranked No. 53 on the Fortune 500 list, grew revenue by 14% last year and tripled its annual profits, even amid a global drop in commodity prices. If the company ETE -0.25% continues to grow at the same pace it did for the last five years, by 2024—and therefore our 2025 Fortune 500 ranking—it would have $5.8 trillion in revenue. That’s unlikely–most of the company's growth came from a big acquisition, and last year Energy Transfer Equity did just $56 billion in revenue.

1.Energy Transfer Equity

管道运营商Energy Transfer Equity目前在财富美国500强榜单上排名第53位。在全球大宗商品价格普遍下跌的大背景下，该公司去年的营收依然增长了14%，年度利润更是翻了3倍。如果该公司继续维持过去5年的营收增长率，那么到了2024年，其营收将达到5.8万亿美元。不过实际上它未必会增长到这种程度，因为该公司近来的增长大半来自一笔大型收购，去年的营收实际只有560亿美元。

2. Apple

If Apple AAPL -0.69% continues its recent revenue growth over the next 10 years, it will hit $4.5 trillion in sales in 2024, making it the country’s second-largest corporation.

2.苹果

如果苹果未来10年还能维持最近的营收增长率，其2024年的销售额将达到4.5万亿美元，一举成为美国第二大企业。

3. Facebook

Ten-year-old Facebook FB -1.86% has only been a public company for three years, but its 58% revenue growth, driven by mobile advertising revenue, rivals that of a young startup.

3.Facebook

Facebook今年已经10岁了，上市也有3年之久。但在移动广告收入的带动下，Facebook近年来获得了高达58%的营收增长率，和创业公司相比也不惶多让。

4. Express Scripts Holdings

The company’s ESRX 0.14% $29 billion merger with Medco in 2012 helped boost its give-year growth rate, despite shrinking revenue and profits in 2014.

4. Express Scripts Holdings

尽管医药福利管理公司Express Scripts Holdings2014年的营收和利润均有所缩水，但它在2012年斥资290亿美元并购了当时的行业巨头Medco公司，这笔交易在一定程度上提振了该公司的年均复合增长率。

5. Leucadia National

The “baby Berkshire Hathaway” conglomerate owns businesses as diverse as banks, plastics companies, timber operations, energy companies, a ski resort, and a beef packing business. It has grown through acquisitions, most recently its 2012 merger with Jefferies Group, worth $3.8 billion. Despite its relatively small $12.4 billion in revenue in 2014, if Leucadia LUK -0.08% continues at the same growth rate for the next decade, it would manage $1 trillion in revenue in 2024.

5. Leucadia National

这家号称“小伯克希尔哈撒韦”的投资集团涉足银行、塑料、木材、能源、滑雪场、牛肉包装等多个领域。其营收的增长也是拜收购所赐，特别是它在2012年以38亿美元并购了杰佛瑞集团。虽然2014年124亿美元的营收相对不高，但如果该公司未来10年继续维持当前的增长率，那么到了2024年，它的营收将达到1万亿美元。

6. Amazon

Even with $88 billion in 2014 revenue, Amazon AMZN -0.81% remains a growth story. The company increased revenue by 19.5% over the prior year. (Profits, in typical Amazon fashion, were non-existent.) If Amazon continues that growth trajectory for a decade, it would have just over $1 trillion in profits in 2024.

6．亚马逊

尽管2014年的营收高达880亿美元，但亚马逊仍然维持着令人羡慕的增长速度。去年它的营收比上年增长了19.5%。（至于利润，按照亚马逊一贯的风格，依然是不存在的。）但如果亚马逊未来10年继续保持这一增长势头，其2024年的利润将超过1万亿美元。

7. Exxon Mobil

If the oil company, which holds the second-place spot on this year’s Fortune 500, continues its current five-year growth rate, Exxon Mobil XOM 0.68% will bring in $691 billion in revenue in 2014.

7.埃克森美孚

这家石油公司在今年财富美国500强的榜单上排名第二。如果美孚石油继续维持近5年的年均增长率，那么到了2024年，它的营收将达到6910亿美元。

8. Wal-Mart Stores

That’s right—we’re predicting that in 10 years, Amazon will be bigger than Wal-Mart, the country’s largest corporation WMT -0.62% for three years in a row. (Amazon was No. 29 on the Fortune 500 this year.) Even with modest growth—Wal-Mart’s revenue increased just 2% between 2013 and 2014—its size alone will keep it high on the Fortune 500 list of the future if it can continue defend its market position from online competition.

8.沃尔玛

沃尔玛已经连续三年蝉联美国500强冠军。但你没有看错，我们预计在10年内，亚马逊的规模将超过沃尔玛。（亚马逊在今年的财富美国500强榜单上排名第29位。）不过即便增长势头不旺（2013至2014年，沃尔玛的营收只增长了2%），光是规模便足以令它继续留在财富500强榜单上，但前提是，它要能继续抵挡住互联网对其市场地位的冲击。

9. Google

By 2025, we’ll know how many of Google’s crazy moonshots have actually paid off and which ones look more like pipe dreams. We’ll also know whether the company GOOG -1.22% successfully transitioned its money-printing search engine—which performs best on desktop browsers —onto mobile. If it does, expect Google to climb to the elite ranks of the Fortune 10 (it’s No. 40 this year), with $653 billion in revenue.

9.谷歌

到了2025年，我们就会知道，谷歌疯狂的“探月计划”哪些带来了真正的回报，哪些被最终证实只是白日梦。同时我们还将知道谷歌是否已经将其在桌面端十分赚钱的搜索引擎成功转换到了移动端。如果答案是肯定的，那么谷歌预计将凭借6530亿美元的营收挤进“美国500强前10大公司”之列（它在今年美国500强的榜单上排在第40位）。

10. World Fuel Services

The fuel services company INT 0.92% , listed at No. 68 on this year’s Fortune 500 list, could see revenue grow to $640 billion if it continues its current growth rate.

10.世界燃料服务公司

这家燃料公司在今年的财富美国500强榜单上排名第68位，如果可以按照当前的速度持续增长，那么到2025年，它的营收将增至6400亿美元。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

审校：任文科