People pay plenty of money for consulting giants to help them figure out which technology trends are fads and which will stick. You could go that route, or get the same thing from the McKinsey Global Institute’s in-house think-tank for the cost of a new book. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, was written by McKinsey directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, and offers insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the business world in coming decades. Below, we’re recapping their list of the “Disruptive Dozen”—the technologies the group believes have the greatest potential to remake today’s business landscape.

许多人愿意花一大笔钱，请咨询专家预测未来的科技趋势。你可以这样做，也可以用一本新书的价格，从麦肯锡全球研究所的内部智库得到同样的预测。这本书名为《大颠覆：全球四大力量正在打破所有的趋势》，作者为麦肯锡董事理查德·多布斯、詹姆斯·马尼卡和华强森。这本书将帮助你深入了解未来几十年对商业世界影响最大的科技发展趋势。我们在下文列出了他们给出的“12个最具颠覆性的科技趋势”。作者们相信，这些科技最有潜力改变当今的商业图景。

Energy storage

The book's authors predict that the price of lithium-ion battery packs could fall by a third in the next 10 years, which will have a big impact on not only electric cars, but renewable energy storage. There will be major repercussions for the transportation, power generation, and the oil and gas industries as batteries grow cheaper and more efficient.

储能技术

本书的作者们预测，未来十年，锂离子电池组的成本将降低三分之一，这一改变不仅对电动车领域至关重要，也与可再生能源存储技术的发展息息相关。同时，随着电池价格日益低廉和电池效率的提高，运输、发电和石油天然气行业也将受到重大影响。

Genomics

As super computers make the enormously complicated process of genetic analysis much simpler, the authors foresee a world in which “genomic-based diagnoses and treatments will extend patients’ lives by between six months and two years in 2025." Sequencing systems could eventually become so commonplace that doctors will have them on their desktops.

基因组学

超级计算机使极其复杂的基因分析程序变得更加简单。本书的作者预测，“在2025年，利用基因组技术进行诊断和治疗，将使患者寿命延长六个月至两年。”基因测序系统将会变得非常普遍，医生在电脑上便可以使用这一系统。

Advanced materials

The ability to manipulate existing materials on a molecular level has already enabled advances in products like sunglasses, bike frames, and medical equipment. Scientists have greater control than ever over nanomaterials in a variety of substances, and their understanding is growing. Health concerns recently prompted Dunkin' Donuts to remove nanomaterials from their food. But certain advanced nanomaterials show promise for improving health, and even treating cancer. Coming soon: materials that are self-healing, self-cleaning, and that remember their original shape even if they’re bent.

高级材料学

在分子层面操纵现有材料的能力，已经带来了太阳镜、自行车架和医疗设备等产品的进步。未来，科学家将可以更好地控制各种物质的纳米材料，对纳米技术将有更深入的理解。出于对健康问题的担忧，唐恩都乐公司决定将纳米材料从其食物中剔除。但部分先进的纳米材料，很有希望改善健康状况甚至治疗癌症。不久的将来，材料将具有自愈、自洁能力，并且将拥有记忆，无论被如何弯曲，它们都能够恢复到最初的形状。

Autonomous vehicles

Autonomous cars are coming, and fast. By 2025, the “driverless revolution” could already be “well underway,” the authors write. All the more so if laws and regulations in the U.S. can adapt to keep up. Case in point: Some BMW cars already park themselves.

无人驾驶汽车

无人驾驶汽车很快就会到来。作者们写道，2025年将迎来“无人驾驶革命”。如果美国能修改法律法规能够以迎合这一趋势，无人驾驶技术的发展将更加迅速。最好的例子：某些型号的宝马汽车已经具有自动停车功能。

Renewable energy

Wind and solar have never really been competitive with fossil fuels, but McKinsey predicts that status quo will change thanks to technology that enables wider use and better energy storage. In the last decade, the cost of solar energy has already fallen by a factor of 10, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the sun could surpass fossil fuels to become the world’s largest source of electricity by 2050.

可再生能源

一直以来，风能与太阳能始终不具备与化石燃料竞争的能力，但麦肯锡预测，随着科技进步推动可再生能源的普及和储能技术的发展，这种现状将得以改变。过去十年，太阳能发电的成本已经下降了10倍，国际能源署预测，至2050年，太阳能将取代化石燃料，成为最大的电力来源。

Advanced robotics

The robots are coming! “Sales of industrial robots grew by 170% in just two years between 2009 and 2011,” the authors write, adding that the industry’s annual revenues are expected to exceed $40 billion by 2020. As robots get cheaper, more dexterous, and safer to use, they'll continue to grow as an appealing substitute for human labor in fields like manufacturing, maintenance, cleaning, and surgery.

高级机器人技术

机器人来了！作者们写道：“2009年至2011年短短两年时间，工业机器人的销量便增加了170%。”截至2020年，机器人行业的年收入预计将超过400亿美元。随着机器人变得更廉价、更灵巧、使用更安全，它们将在制造、维修、清洁和手术等领域取代人力。

3D printing

Much-hyped additive manufacturing has yet to replace traditional manufacturing technologies, but that could change as systems get cheaper and smarter. “In the future, 3D printing could redefine the sale and distribution of physical goods,” the authors say. Think buying an electric blueprint of a shoe, then going home and printing it out. The book notes that “the manufacturing process will ‘democratize’ as consumers and entrepreneurs start to print their own products."

3D打印

被炒得火热的增材制造尚未取代传统制造技术，但随着3D打印系统变得更廉价、更智能，这一情况将发生改变。作者们写道：“未来，3D打印将重新定义实物商品的销售和分销。”比如购买一双鞋的电子图纸，然后回到家将它们打印出来。书中指出，“随着消费者和企业开始打印自己的产品，生产过程将‘大众化’。”

Mobile internet

The explosion of mobile apps has dramatically changed our personal experiences (goodbye hookup bars, hello Tinder), as well as our professional lives. More than two thirds of people on earth have access to a mobile phone, and another two or three billion people are likely to gain access over the coming decade. The result: internet-related expenditures outpace even agriculture and energy, and will only continue to grow.

移动互联网

手机应用的爆炸性发展，极大改变了我们的个人生活：想找一夜情？再也不用去hookup酒吧了，用Tinder在线就可以找到。当然，我们的职业生活也同样受到了冲击。目前，全世界超过三分之二的人拥有手机，其他二三十亿人也将在未来十年拥有手机。因此，互联网相关的投资将超过农业与能源，并将持续增长。

Automation of knowledge work

It’s not just manufacturing jobs that will be largely replaced by robots and 3D printers. Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel report that by 2025, computers could do the work of 140 million knowledge workers. If Watson can win at “Jeopardy!” there’s nothing stopping computers from excelling at other knowledge work, ranging from legal discovery to sports coverage.

知识工作自动化

未来被机器人和3D打印机取代的，不仅仅是生产类工作。多布斯、马尼卡和华强森写道，至2025年，1.4亿知识工作者的工作将由计算机完成。既然人工智能程序沃森可以在益智问答电视节目《危险边缘》中战胜人类，还有什么能够阻止计算机完成其他知识性工作呢？比如司法取证和体育报道等。

Internet of things

Right now, 99% of physical objects are unconnected to the “internet of things.” It won’t last. Going forward, more products and tools will be controlled via the internet, the McKinsey directors say, and all kinds of data will be generated as a result. Expect sensors to collect information on the health of machinery, the structural integrity of bridges, and even the temperatures in ovens.

物联网

目前，有99%的物品并未接入“物联网”。但这种情况不会持续太久。麦肯锡的董事们表示，更多产品和工具未来将通过互联网控制，同时生成所有相关数据。传感器将收集机械装置的健康信息、桥梁的结构完整性，甚至微波炉的温度等。

Cloud technology

The growth of cloud technology will change just how much small businesses and startups can accomplish. Small companies will get “IT capabilities and back-office services that were previously available only to larger firms—and cheaply, too,” the authors write. “Indeed, large companies in almost every field are vulnerable, as start-ups become better equipped, more competitive, and able to reach customers and users everywhere.”

云技术

云技术的发展将改变小企业和初创公司的发展模式。作者们写道：小公司将获得“之前仅有大公司才能获得的IT能力和后台服务，并且价格低廉。事实上，几乎每一个领域的大公司都将受到威胁，因为初创公司的装备更加完善，它们将变得更有竞争力，可以获得位于任何地方的客户和用户。”

Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery

The International Energy Agency predicts the U.S. will be the world’s largest producer of oil by 2020, thanks to advances in fracking and other technologies, which improved to the point where removing oil from hard-to-reach spots finally made economic sense. McKinsey directors expect increasing ease of fuel extraction to further shift global markets.

先进的石油天然气勘探和复原技术

国际能源署预测，至2020年，随着水力压裂法和其他技术的进步，美国将成为全球最大的石油生产国。借助于新技术，从曾经难以抵达的位置开采石油，未来将变得更具经济意义。麦肯锡董事们预测，随着燃料提取变得越来越简单，全球市场的局势将发生更大的变化。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科