In a society dominated by self-driving cars, U.S. auto sales might fall 40% and vehicle ownership could drop 50%, forcing entrenched automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors to adapt or die, according to a Barclays analyst report.

    This shift will also create opportunities for tech startups and rental car companies.

    The research report, “Disruptive Mobility” by Barclays plc analyst Brian A. Johnson, imagines how society would operate 25 years from now if everything stayed the same except that the majority of vehicles produced were fully autonomous.

    Obviously, the report is more of a thought experiment—and one that requires us to make a number of assumptions. Still, the forecast illustrates how disruptive self-driving cars could be to the automotive and transportation industries. And with Google’s plan to introduce self-driving cars by 2020, this futuristic scenario doesn’t isn’t seem so far off.

    So who wins and loses in this futuristic scenario? Does Uber ditch its drivers and become a fleet management company? Will Tesla’s entry into mass-market cars threaten its existence?

    Even when driverless cars monopolize the landscape, Johnson predicts driver-required cars will still exist. These will be cars and light trucks owned for specific work purposes or for their performance—what’s the point of owning a McClaren 65OS Spider if you can’t drive it?

    The Barclays report estimates a little more than 50% of cars in the U.S. are used for getting to and from work, and dropping the kids off at school. It’s in this purely commuter-daily routes space, where Johnson sees shared autonomous driving upending the auto industry.

    Shared autonomous driving, or SAVs, would be like Uber without the driver—a fleet of robotic taxis capable of picking up a passenger who has summoned the ride with the touch of an app. Taking it a step further, pooled SAVs that pick up multiple riders at different points would also emerge.

    The advent of driverless cars in dense urban areas like San Francisco would impact traditional taxi companies and taxi apps like Uber and Lyft, depending on how these tech-focused startups adjust. Uber and Lyft are, in many ways, prepared for this transition. The companies already use technology to connect drivers with riders and they both operate carpooling, or shared riding, services.

    But in exurban areas and cities like Austin, Texas, which have a compact urban core and surrounding sprawl, the rise of shared autonomous vehicles could have an even bigger impact. Researchers at the University of Texas, who ran simulation models based on actual trips in Austin, found that every SAV on the road could displace nine traditional cars, according to the report. At the same time, each SAV would travel 63,335 miles, about five times the annual mileage of a traditional family car, the report says.

    Winners and Losers

    For consumers, the economics of SAVs, or transportation as a service, is a win. Barclays estimates the cost per mile for SAVs will be $0.34 a mile, nearly 58% cheaper than traditional new cars. Pooled SAVs, assuming two riders per trip, would push those costs down even more to $0.16 per mile.

    For companies that make mass market cars, a driverless society would be far more challenging. From the Barclays report:

    Just as horses have become either true beasts of burden (e.g. on a cattle ranch) or a rich person’s play-thing—we think of the Hampton Classic Horse Shows—we see a smaller auto market, with individually owned vehicles either for work purposes or for status/performance. For the rest, shared autonomous vehicles will replace individually owned cars, just as the Model T replaced the horse.

    巴克莱银行的一份分析报告称，如果自动驾驶汽车在美国社会占据主导地位，美国的汽车销量可能会猛跌40%，汽车拥有量也会下降50%，这将迫使福特和通用这类汽车巨头主动适应或是被动消亡。

    不过这一巨变也会为科技创业企业和租车公司创造了一些机遇。

    这份名为《颠覆移动性》，由巴克莱银行分析师布莱恩•约翰逊执笔的报告所构想的是，25年后，如果其它因素保持不变，而绝大部分量产汽车都是自动驾驶的，社会将会如何运转。

    显然，这份报告更多是一种思想实验——它需要我们做出大量假设。不过这种预测仍然向我们生动地展示出颠覆性的自动驾驶汽车可能对汽车业和交通运输业带来何种冲击。鉴于谷歌公司计划于2020年正式推出自动驾驶汽车，这种充满未来感的场景其实距我们也并不遥远。

    那么，未来这种情景中谁是赢家，谁又会是输家呢？ Uber会抛弃司机，变成一家车队管理公司吗？特斯拉公司打入大众市场的策略会威胁其生存吗？

    不过约翰逊预计，就算无人驾驶汽车一统天下，需要司机驾驶的汽车仍会存在。也就是那些性能出众、或有特定用途的汽车和轻卡仍将幸存——拥有一辆迈凯伦650S Spider却不能开有什么意义呢？

    这份报告估计，美国有超过50%的汽车是用于上下班和接送孩子的。就是在这种纯用于通勤的领域，约翰逊认为共享型自动驾驶汽车将颠覆汽车业。

    共享型自动驾驶（SAV），就像没有司机的Uber——这就是一队自动驾驶的出租车，乘客只需要点击应用就能召车。照此类推，拼上一辆共享型自动驾驶汽车，在不同地点接上不同乘客这种模式也会涌现。

    在旧金山这类人口稠密的城区，无人驾驶汽车的到来将会对传统出租车公司、Uber和Lyft这类召车应用造成冲击，影响程度取决于这类技术导向的创业企业将如何应对。实际上，优步和Lyft在很多方面都已为这一转变做好了准备。这两家公司早已用技术手段将司机和乘客联接起来，而且它们都在提供拼车或汽车共享服务。

    但在城市远郊和德克萨斯州奥斯汀这样的城市，由于它由一个紧凑的中心城区和环绕的市郊地区组成，SAV的兴起可能会带来更大的冲击。德克萨斯大学的研究人员建立了一个基于奥斯汀市实际交通状况的仿真建模。通过运行这一建模，他们发现，每辆SAV可替代9辆传统汽车。与此同时，每辆SAV可行驶63,335英里，约为一般家用车年行驶里程的5倍。

    赢家和输家

    对消费者来说，作为一项交通服务，SAV的经济性会让他们尝到甜头。这份报告预计，SAV每英里的成本只有0.34美元，这几乎要比传统新车使用成本便宜近58%。而如果拼SAV，假设每趟只有两名乘客，那这一成本将降至每英里只有0.16美元。

    但对生产量产车的公司来说，一个无人驾驶汽车的社会将会更具挑战性。这份报告写道：

    “正像马要么成为真正的驮兽（如在牧场上），要么成为富人的玩物，比如汉普顿经典名马展，我们认为一个规模较小的汽车市场也会如此，个人拥有的车要么有特定工作用途，要么就是为了彰显身份或追求性能。而对多数人来说，共享型自动驾驶汽车将取代个人拥有的车辆，就像T型车取代了马一样。”

    GM and Ford will be impacted the most by these changes and will have to restructure in order to adapt, according to Barclays. Companies like American Axle, which have a large exposure to work trucks and status vehicles, will be relatively safe. Still, suppliers to traditional mass-market automakers and even those “safer” luxury performance vehicles, will be impacted. Fewer vehicles will mean lower demand for parts and only companies that can pivot and adjust to much lower volumes will survive.

    Meanwhile, Avis Budget Group , which acquired car-sharing startup Zipcar for $500 million in 2013, is well positioned if it becomes a manager of SAV fleets, says Barclays. Under that premise, Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes-Benz, is prepared for the shift as well. In 2013, the German car company launched a mobility services subsidiary, where it now houses its moovel unit and car-sharing car2go brand. Car2Go, which connects members with Smart cars, has more than 750,000 registered members in 27 cities around the world. In the past year, it has also purchased startups RideScout and the mytaxi cab-booking app Intelligent Apps.

    Barclays puts its biggest bet on low-end disruptors—startups like iStream that plan to build cheap electric vehicles designed for the car-sharing market and eventually shared autonomous vehicles. Other Barclays winners in this space include UK firm Riversimple, which is building a fuel-cell powered two-seater and plan to offer mobility as a service rather than sell its cars. Barclays is particularly fond of , an Israeli company that makes chips used for advanced driver assistance.

    Google is also well-positioned for the shift to driverless cars. Barclays sees Google offering software to traditional and new automakers, not producing the cars.

    Meanwhile, Tesla Motors could be negatively impacted as its mass market cars lose out to SAVs, according to the Barclays report. While Barclays paints a precarious picture for Tesla, it should be noted that the company has a record of jumping at market opportunities and designing products that create massive demand where there previously appeared to be none.

    Its battery tech, innovations in manufacturing and software—the essential ingredient for an effective autonomous car market—as well as its recent entry in the energy storage market all point to a company able to take advantage of a shift to driverless cars.

    Considering the future, the pursuit of Nokia’s maps business makes sense. A transportation network company’s key interest will be to make sure it has a steady uninterrupted flow of map data, Johnson told Fortune.

    “Mapping has emerged as the Spice of the disruptive mobility universe,” Johnson says.

    这份报告表示，这些变化对通用汽车和福特汽车的冲击最大，它们将不得不厉行改革，主动应变。而美国车桥公司这类主要面向卡车和高端车辆的企业则会相对安全。但那些传统的量产车厂商，甚至那些“相对安全”的豪华型性能车制造商将受到冲击。车辆更少就意味着对零部件的需求更少，只有那些能转变方向、适应汽车保有量大量减少这一现实的公司能够幸存下来。

    与此同时，这份报告称，2013年斥资5亿美元收购汽车共享创业企业Zipcar的安飞士•巴吉集团如果能管理一个SAV车队，就将处于不败之地。根据这种假设，梅赛德斯奔驰的制造商戴姆勒集团也早已为这一巨变做好了准备。2013年，这家德国汽车巨头就成立了一家主打汽车服务的子公司，该公司现在拥有moovel部门和汽车共享品牌car2go。Car2go用奔驰的小型车Smart为会员服务，目前在全球27个城市已拥有超过75万名会员。去年，它还收购了创业企业RideScout和出租车预订应用Intelligent Apps。

    巴克莱银行将最大的赌注押在了iStream这类低端创新者身上，这家初创公司计划打造专为汽车共享市场设计的廉价电动车，最终是生产共享型自动驾驶汽车。巴克莱看好的另一个赢家是英国公司Riversimple，它正在打造两座版的燃料电池汽车，并计划提供汽车服务而不是销售汽车。巴克莱银行尤其看好一家生产芯片的以色列公司，这种芯片可实现先进的驾驶者辅助功能。

    谷歌公司也在这一转变过程中占据了有利位置。巴克莱发现，谷歌主要是为传统及新兴汽车厂商提供软件，而不是生产汽车。

    该报告声称，随着其量产车逐步被SAV所取代，特斯拉公司可能会受到较大的负面影响。尽管巴克莱银行为特斯拉描绘了一幅危机四伏的未来图景，但应该指出的是，该公司一贯善于捕捉市场机会，并能在以前似乎毫无市场需求的领域设计出需求者众多的产品。

    特斯拉的电池技术、生产和软件领域的诸多创新——这都是真正有效的自动驾驶汽车市场的关键要素——以及其近期进入储能市场的动作，都说明该公司能很好地抓住市场向无人驾驶汽车转变的这一契机。

    就未来而言，对诺基亚公司地图业务的收购很说明问题。约翰逊向《财富》杂志表示，一家交通网络公司的主要兴趣将是确保其拥有稳定、连续的地图数据流。

    约翰逊表示：“对颠覆性移动服务领域来说，地图是一个锦上添花的配置。”（财富中文网）

    译者：阿周

    审校：任文科