Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi is not convinced Apple will actually get into the automobile manufacturing business, but he’s pretty sure they’re interested. In a note to clients Tuesday, he offered five reasons why:

    Reason 1:The auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable market for Apple, with over $1 trillion in annual sales. Given that the vast majority of Apple’s growth in recent years has been driven by the iPhone, and that the high-end of the smartphone market is projected to have a tepid growth outlook, the auto market provides a huge, incremental market opportunity that could move the needle for Apple going forward.

    Reason 2:Apple is a product company and has historically been undaunted by entering established markets. Apple’s focus has been on making premium, differentiated products and has taken on established competitors, many with deep R&D pockets

    Reason 3:Tesla has upended the auto industry on a relatively shoestring budget. Apple has nearly limitless financial resources.

    Reason 4:Although auto industry margins are middling, Apple’s premium-priced products have historically enabled it to command a disproportionate share of industry profits.

    Reason 5:Significant car manufacturing capacity is likely to develop in China over the next few years, which we believe Apple may be able to leverage to subcontract manufacturing/assembly of a car.

    “So are we convinced Apple is making a car?” Sacconaghi asks. And then he answers his own question:

    No, in part because Apple is typically very patient in bringing a product to market, and will ultimately only do so if it believes it has an offering that is truly distinctive. A lot needs to be occur for anyone (including Apple) to know whether that will indeed transpire, particularly since Apple’s historical “feature absolutism” points to an Apple car that would very likely be all-electric and likely autonomous, both of which require significant technology and regulatory hurdles to be scaled.

    “Wrong as usual,” tweets Asymco’s Horace Dediu (referring to Sacconaghi, I hope, and not me). His point: Apple only enters a business if it believes it can make a meaningful contribution, i.e. uncovering and solving an unmet job to be done. “The profit comes from solving an unmet job,” he says. “There’s an ocean of money waiting for those who do.”

    华尔街券商Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师托尼•萨康纳姆并不确信苹果公司会不会涉足汽车制造业，但他可以肯定的是，苹果对这个很感兴趣。本周二发给客户的报告中，萨康纳姆对此给出了以下五个理由：

    理由一：汽车业年销售额超过1万亿美元，对苹果来说是个特别庞大，而且具有可行性的市场。近几年苹果绝大部分销售增长都由iPhone拉动，而高端智能手机市场未来增长预计将放缓，与此同时汽车市场提供了稳步增长的巨大商机，可助苹果业绩稳步上升。

    理由二：苹果是一家产品至上的企业，从历史上看，它毫不畏惧进入已发育健全的市场。苹果一直专注于制造溢价高的差异化产品，无惧与业内的强劲对手竞争，其中不少对手都在研发方面投入重金。

    理由三：特斯拉仅用较小的预算就颠覆了汽车行业，而苹果拥有源源不断的资金支持。

    理由四：尽管汽车业的利润只处于中等水平，但苹果向来擅长走高价产品路线，而且总能凭此策略赚走行业大部分利润。

    理由五：今后几年，中国的汽车制造能力有望迎来大发展。我们认为，苹果有可能借势以外包方式在中国制造或组装汽车。

    “那么，是否能确信苹果将制造汽车？”萨康纳姆问道。他的回答是：

    “不能确定。原因之一就是，苹果推新产品时会很谨慎。只有认为自己的新产品真正独一无二时，苹果才会推向市场。要判断苹果到底会不会推出汽车，还得多观察各种迹象，目前任何人都很难猜中，苹果自己可能也并未确定。尤其是考虑到苹果在产品方面一贯信奉‘绝对要有特色’，如果苹果真要造汽车，很可能是纯电动车而且可能是无人驾驶汽车，要做到这两点需要强大的技术实力，还得跨越监管方面的障碍。”

    关注移动产业的Asymco博主、知名苹果分析师贺拉斯•德迪欧在Twitter上对本文评论道：“像往常一样判断失误。”（希望这话指的是萨康纳姆的观点）德迪欧认为：苹果只有在确信可以做出有意义的贡献时才会进入某个行业，比如发掘并解决某项未满足的需求。他说：“利润就来自解决未满足的需求，这里有无尽的财富等着有能力的公司。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Pessy Wang

    审校：夏林