Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world is riddled with clichés. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” It’s impossible to count the number of startups which failed because the world wasn’t ready for them yet. Since the dotcom bubble, many of the era’s biggest flops have been revived in different forms to become viable businesses.

    Today’s revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For starters, it’s a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than half of the population carries the Internet around in their pocket. The addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.

    Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS -0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a business, which means early-stage failures aren’t costing investors millions.

    Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.

    风险投资家非常爱说一些经验之谈，甚至整个创业界都流行着一些金科玉律。最经典的莫过于一个关于创业时机的经验之谈：“唯一比犯错更严重的就是过于超前。”因创业理念太超前而失败的例子简直数不胜数。不过自从“.com”泡沫破裂后，许多当年失败得一塌糊涂的点子，又以其它形式重新焕发了青春，成为生机勃勃的企业。

    这些创业理念之所以成功复苏，也因为它们现在具备了一些关键的要素。首先来了解一串简单的数字：2000年，美国只有43%的人使用互联网。如今美国网民人数已占总人口的86%，移动互联网用户更是达到美国总人口的一半以上。也就是说，网络创业公司的受众群体要比以往大得多。

    另外，联邦快递和UPS等物流网络也比90年代末更发达、更高效、价格更低。最后，随着云计算和开源软件的兴起，网络创业的成本从几百万美元减少到几千美元甚至更低。这大大降低了创业的风险，也就意味着早期阶段的创业失败不会导致投资人损失数百万美金。

    以下是一些当年因过于超前而失败的例子。

    Same-day delivery

    Uber has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and just about anything you want will show up—booze, groceries, manicures, flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now offer same-day delivery, with countless startup—including Uber—hot on their heels.

    Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups Kozmo.com and Webvan. Kozmo.com lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they didn’t make money on their services. Today, Kozmo.com’s co-founder has revived the idea with MaxDelivery.com which has a small customer base of under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering anything you want on-demand proves that the idea wasn’t bad, but the timing was.

    当日送达

    Uber已经把智能手机变成了生活的遥控器。只要按个按钮，你想要的几乎任何东西都可以送到家门——比如酒水、美甲、鲜花乃至大麻。亚马逊和谷歌现在也提供了当日送达服务，包括Uber在内的不计其数的创业公司紧随其后。

    最早提供同日送达服务的，是Web 1.0时代的知名网站Kozmo.com和Webvan。但Kozmo.com在“.com”泡沫破裂时损失了数亿美元，Webvan更是让投资人的10多亿美金打了水漂。失败的原因在于，他们的服务不赚钱。Kozmo.com的联合创始人如今又通过MaxDelivery.com让这个理念起死回生，虽然MaxDelivery的用户群只有不到10万人，但从2005年至今，它却能依赖自身盈利实现缓慢而稳定的增长，并且能养活130名员工。如今有这么多创业公司在做当日送达服务，足以证明这个点子并不坏，只是当时时机未到。

    Pet food delivery

    The market for “pet parents,” who treat their dogs as well as children is a massive one, and that has only grown since the days of the dotcom bubble. But Pets.com, the most famous dotcom-era blow-up, was plagued by a simple logistical issue: In 1999, it didn’t make financial sense to ship giant bags of pet food across the country.

    Today, several companies have taken advantage of improvements from an improved national delivery network and revived this idea. Petflow.com expected $50 million in sales in 2014 and Bark&Co, a dog supply delivery service, claims it is a $100 million-per-year business. Even Petco has launched a repeat delivery service.

    宠物食品快递

    把自家的萌宠当亲人和孩子一样照顾的“狗奴”、“猫奴”大有人在。而且宠物一族的规模在“.com”时代之后仍在继续加大。Pets.com是“.com”时代一家非常出名的高估值网站，只可惜被一个简单的物流问题所累：1999年的时候，对于大部分消费者来说，从网上隔着大半个国家买狗粮在经济上并不划算。

    如今随着全国性的快递网络的发展，好几家公司又拾起了宠物食品快递的生意。Pletflow.com在2014年的营收预计达到5000万美元以上。一家名叫Bark&Co的狗粮公司声称，它每年的业务额达到了1亿美元。就连Petco公司也推出了一项重复快递服务。

    Smartwatches

    The jury is still out on whether smartwatches will become as big a category as iPods or tablets, but they've certainly moved beyond novelty status. Analysts predict Apple AAPL -0.82% will sell at least 30 million Apple Watches when it goes on sale in April.

    But Apple's smartwatch predecessors, Pebble and Samsung, weren't first to the smartwatch game. Microsoft MSFT -0.58% debuted a smartwatch prototype in 2004. Impressively, it preceded the smartphone. According to Techspot, these Microsoft smartwatches used FM radio signals to bring news, weather, and other information into the watches, which were made by Suunto, Fossil, Tissot, and Swatch. Somehow, it never caught on.

    智能手表

    智能手表究竟能否像iPod或平板电脑一样，成为一种独领风骚的电子产品，现在依然没有定论，但它显然已经不像过去那样小众。据分析师预测，等到苹果手表四月上市后，它的销量至少将达到3000万部。

    Pebble和三星此前也推出了各自的智能手表，但它们其实并非智能手表的先驱。微软早在2004年就发布了智能手表的原型产品，要知道那时候连智能手机都尚未问世。据Techspot报道，微软智能手表可以利用FM收音机信号将新闻、天气和其它信息带入手表中——当然微软的着力点只是在它的电子部分，它使用的手表仍然是松拓、Fossil、天梭和斯沃淇等瑞士知名表商的产品。不过不知什么缘故，微软智能手表一直没有流行开来。

    Group buying sites

    In the late '90s, group buying sites were just as common as they were in the Groupon era. This includes the most well-known, Letsbuyit.com, as well as Mercata, which scrapped its IPO plans in 2001 and shut down. Others include Mobshop.com, ActBig, Zwirl.com, and C-Tribe.com. AOL AOL 1.36% and Yahoo YHOO 1.42% had plans to launch their own group-buying sites, too. None of those companies survived the dotcom crash—except Actbig.com, apparently.

    In 2009, Groupon revived the concept. One could argue that the daily deals category remains a novelty, as I recently did in this article. My colleague Dan Primack recently counter-argued that Groupon is still a $5 billion company, which is not to be dismissed.

    团购网站

    早在90年代末，团购网站就在美国遍地开花，其数量一点也不亚于Groupon引领的“百团大战”时代。其中最出名的有Letsfuyit.com，在2001年放弃IPO计划，随后黯然倒闭的Mercata，以及Mobshop.com、ActBig、Zwirl.com、C-Tribe.com等大大小小的团购网站。美国在线和雅虎也曾计划推出自己的团购网站。不过在“.com”泡沫破裂后，除Actbig.com之外，上述网站无一生存。

    到了2009年，Groupon又让团购理念火了起来。很多人可能认为团购业务依然算是新生事物，就像我最近在一篇文章中指出的那样。我的同事丹•普利马克甚至称，Groupon仍然是一家价值50亿美元的公司。

    Vertical e-commerce

    In the dotcom era, Boo.com sold hip apparell, eToys.com sold toys, and Eve.com, Reflect.com, and Beautyjungle.com sold cosmetics. The idea, in the early days of e-commerce, was to pick a category and own it.

    Then King Amazon wiped out the competition. The site that started selling books quickly became “The Everything Store,” dominating e-commerce and convincing the world that in order to win at e-commerce, you had to do it all. Niche shopping sites like Boo.com, Beautyjungle.com, and eToys flamed out. (eToys went bankrupt and sold to Toys-R-Us.)

    Now highly specialized e-commerce is held up as the only way to compete with Amazon. You have companies like Warby Parker, Bonobos, J. Hilburn, Harry’s, Everlane, and Dollar Shave Club flourishing because they have a specific brand and make their own products. Category-focused players like Wayfair for furniture, Birchbox for cosmetics, Asos and Nasty Gal for trendy clothing, Honest Company for baby products, and Baublebar for jewelry, are thriving as well. The more specific and unique your edge on Amazon is, the better.

    垂直电商

    在“.com”时代，Boo.com专门卖时装，eToys.com专门卖玩具，Eve.com、Reflect.com和Beautyjungle.com专门卖化妆品。总之，在电子商务的早期阶段，大家的理念都是相同的——选定一个商品类别，然后成为这类商品的电商霸主。

    随后，亚马逊君临天下，彻底消灭了竞争。这家靠卖书起家的网站迅速成了一家“什么都卖的商店”，在主宰电商界的同时，也向全世界宣告：要想成为电商赢家，你就得什么都卖。在亚马逊强大的压力面前，Boo.com、Beautyjungle.com和eToys等网站纷纷关门大吉。（eToys破产后被卖给了Toys-R-Us。）

    如今，高度专业化的电商模式已经被奉为抗衡亚马逊的唯一方式。Warby Parker、Bonobos、J. Hilburn、Harry’s、Everlane和Dollar Shave Club等垂直电商如雨后春笋般涌现出来，因为他们都拥有一个特定品牌并生产自己的产品。很多电商开始只专注某一类产品，比如Wayfair只卖家具，Birchbox只卖化妆品，Asos和Nasty Gal只卖流行服饰，Honest Company只卖婴儿产品，Baublebar只卖珠宝等等，这些公司的增长势头都很喜人。相对于亚马逊，你的产品越具体，越特殊，你生存的希望就越大。

    Digital currency

    Both Beanz and Flooz, two startups, sites sold digital currency that could be used for online shopping. They raised $100 million and $35 million in venture funding, respectively. After the dotcom crash, when both companies failed, the idea of “internet money” was widely panned. But now, its clear from the hundreds of cryptocurrencies and hundreds of millions invested into bitcoin-related startups that many believe virtual currency will last.

    数字货币

    Beanz和Flooz这两家网站都曾销售过可以用来在线购物的数字货币，并分别获得了1亿美元和3500万美元的风投资金。在“.com”泡沫破裂后，两家公司都退出了历史舞台，“网络货币”概念也受到了广泛的口诛笔伐。但现在，随着数百种加密货币的兴起，数亿美元的资金正在投向与比特币相关的创业公司，由此看来，很多人都相信虚拟货币也是一门长久生意。

    Virtual reality

    Nintendo’s “Virtual Boy,” a virtual reality gaming headset, was released in 1995 and discontinued the following year. It had plenty of problems: It wasn’t exactly portable. It was expensive. It wasn’t comfortable to wear. And the screen was monochrome. (Not to mention an assumption that only boys would want to play with it.) The one thing it has in common with today’s virtual reality headsets from Oculus VR and Samsung is that it reviewers at the time found it to be “asocial.”

    虚拟现实设备

    任天堂曾于1995年推出一款名叫“虚拟男孩”（Virtual Boy）的头戴式虚拟现实游戏装置，不过第二年便将其下架了。这款产品有很多问题：首先它其实并不具备便携性，其次是价格非常昂贵，穿戴起来也很不舒服，而且显示屏还是黑白的。（更不用说估计只有男孩才喜欢玩它。）它与如今Oculus VR和三星等公司推出的虚拟现实套件的唯一共同点，就是评测过这些设备的人都认为它们“缺乏社交性”。

    Livestreaming apps

    Before Justin.tv, there was JenniCam, which launched in 1996. It was just a woman broadcasting her life for a $15 per month subscription. (Today we call that reality TV.) In 2007, Justin.tv aimed to offer the same service to smartphone users. It didn’t catch on as hoped, and Viddy, the hit video app that followed it, failed too. Today, the viral success of Meerkat, and the anticipation for Twitter’s TWTR 0.18% answer, Periscope, show that the use case is real. We just needed faster streaming, better cameras, and a greater appetite for video content first.

    流媒体应用

    在justin.tv之前，1996年还曾经有一个名叫JenniCam的网站一度颇为流行。那只不过是一个女人在网络上广播她的生活，并收取会员每人每月15美元。（现在我们把它叫做电视真人秀。）2007年，Justin.tv开始向智能手机用户提供同样的服务。不过它并没有像希望的那样流行起来。Justin.tv之后的视频应用Viddy也同样失败了。如今，Meerkat的广泛成功，以及Twitter正打算收购的Periscope，都表明这个理念是有前景的。当时缺少的仅仅是更快的流媒体、更好的摄像头，以及对视频内容的消费欲望。

    Touch computing

    Apple didn’t invent touch computing with the iPhone, but it certainly popularized it. In the 1980s, a number of pen computing companies offered tablet computers with styluses, including Go Corp, Pencept, and Linus and Communications Intelligence Corporation. Windows for Pen Computing launched in 1993 and Apple’s Newton MessagePad launched in 1993.

    触控计算

    触控计算并不是苹果通过iPhone发明的，但它却让触控真正普及开来。在80年代，包括Go Corp、Pencept、Linux和Communications Intelligence Corporation在内的多家电脑公司都推出了使用手写笔的平板电脑。微软也于1993年推出了Windows for Pen Computing，苹果也于同年推出了Newton MessagePad。

    Bonus: Google Glass

    Two years after the introduction of Glass, its clear we won’t be walking around with computers on our faces anytime soon. Commentators blame the invasiveness, the ugly design, and the fear they have created. Either way, the world isn’t ready for Glass yet.

    But despite news that Google had stopped selling the devices, Glass isn’t entirely dead. It has flourished in places where workers can benefit from hands-free computing, like warehouses, factories, and construction sites. They’re already wearing safety glasses, so the style factor is irrelevant. Beyond that, Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt recently said that the company continues to work on Glass. The company is certain it has a good idea on its hands. It’s just a little ahead of its time.

    另一个有点超前的产品：谷歌眼镜

    在谷歌眼镜问世两年后，我们显然可以看出，人人鼻梁上架着一台电脑出行的场面短期内应该不可能出现了。很多人指责谷歌眼镜的侵入性、糟糕的设计，以及谷歌眼镜带来的这样那样的担忧。不管怎么说，这个世界还没有做好迎接谷歌眼镜的准备。

    尽管有消息称谷歌已经终止了谷歌眼镜的销售，但智能眼镜的生命却并非就此完结。由于它的确解放了按键盘的双手，因此现在工厂、建筑工地等地方都有很多人在使用谷歌眼镜。这些工人长期戴着护目镜，因此外形因素并不重要。除此之外，谷歌执行董事长埃里克•施密特最近也表示，该公司将继续在眼镜领域发力。智能眼镜的确是谷歌的一个好创意，只不过略微超越了这个时代。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    审校：任文科